Euro 2016 Qualifying

[back of the net]

Not sure if posted elsewhere...

But Croatia have sacked their Manager Niko Kovac

[paul_oshea]

all these outsiders qualifying for the euros worries me somewhat for England's chances.

I think there will be an awful lot of horrible games. At least with the world cup there is a bit of culture to go with the horrible games. .

i also think you will see a lot of half empty stadiums.

[tricky_colour]

all these outsiders qualifying for the euros worries me somewhat for England's chances.

I think there will be an awful lot of horrible games. At least with the world cup there is a bit of culture to go with the horrible games. .

i also think you will see a lot of half empty stadiums.

Which is why refs favour the clubs with a big fan base I expect.

Mind you with all this extra stuff to help the ref maybe that helps the small clubs who previously get the rough end of decisions?

[Stuttgart88]

all these outsiders qualifying for the euros worries me somewhat for England's chances.

I think there will be an awful lot of horrible games. At least with the world cup there is a bit of culture to go with the horrible games. .

i also think you will see a lot of half empty stadiums.i think a tournament with less jeopardy and maybe with more time to play themselves into the tournament could suit England so I agree there. But more horrible games, I'm not sure. There's good reason why these teams are qualifying. And even if these teams get spanked there's an interest in seeing how they fare anyway.

[TrapAPony]

Our provisional squad for the Germany & Poland games is to be named on Thursday. Be interesting to see if a certain AV player that isn't Clark is in the squad although my guess is no.

[backstothewall]

I think there will be an awful lot of horrible games. At least with the world cup there is a bit of culture to go with the horrible games. .

i also think you will see a lot of half empty stadiums.

The novelty of the likes of Iceland or the NI qualifying will ensure sell-outs imho. Living here in the north I can see people I know, even people who wouldn't really be football fans, starting to make plans already for next summer. I would expect them to take really significant numbers of fans with them.

[punkrocket]

I've a few NI supporting mates who want Ireland to qualify solely so that they can get a lift off me.

[samhaydenjr]

Our provisional squad for the Germany & Poland games is to be named on Thursday. Be interesting to see if a certain AV player that isn't Clark is in the squad although my guess is no.

Yeah, promoting Kevin Toner would probably be a bit risky at this stage - maybe if we do get into the play-offs he can get a run-out then

[back of the net]

Looking At Bayern Vs Wolfsburg ..

With Bayern 1 down at H.T - they bring on Lewandoski at H.T who proceeds to score 5 goals in 9 mins

With some peaches in those 5

[Crosby87]

That third one was strange, was that match fixed or did the one team just not care anymore?

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qAHiktV_Fdo

[Charlie Darwin]

They did care, they were just mauled by a much better team.

[DeLorean]

He's a strange one that Lewandoski, I think. When he's in the zone he looks completely unplayable, dynamic and technically outstanding. The night he scored four against Real Madrid an obvious example. More times then he looks very manageable, sluggish and fairly ordinary. Please God the latter will turn up on Sunday fortnight.

[back of the net]

That third one was strange, was that match fixed or did the one team just not care anymore?

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qAHiktV_Fdo


They blocked your link Crosby on Copyright grounds...


See goals below

http://thebiglead.com/2015/09/22/video-robert-lewandowski-five-goals-bayern-munich/

[back of the net]

They did care, they were just mauled by a much better team.




I do agree Charlie , that Bayern are superior.

However I saw the full game from start to finish last night..... what surprises me about their complete collapse...is that they were in control in the first half and well worth their 0-1 half time lead.



Wolfsburg were setup so well in the first half.....and IMO were controlling the tempo of the game. You could see that they were a side that had considerably improved over the last few years and that they were a team whereby every player knew their role and were performing it well to stem the bayern threat

In fact Wolfsburg were unlucky not to be 2 up at HT.

Dante was excellent in the first half....really marshalled the wolfsburg defence so well. They looked very composed defensively in the first half. Mueller barely got a sniff.


It was almost surreal watching their complete collapse within 9 second half minutes

[DeLorean]

Said I'd bump this for the other three playoffs. Ideal result for Ukraine earlier. I only saw bits but they looked well worth their 2-0 advantage. Their winger, Konoplyanka, looks a fine player every time I see him. Liverpool had a deal almost done for him at one point, before Dnipro stalled I think. They ended up paying £10m more for Adam Lallana, ouch! He was outstanding for Sevilla the other night against Real Madrid too. Sweden v Denmark starting now.

[geysir]

Zlatan should be exempted from following the rules of the game and should be allowed to clobber a Dane's face with his elbow, It just seems petty by the ref to blow the whistle on him as if he was just a regular player.

Swedes go one up at last

[elroy]

Watched a good bit of the Ukraine game and watching the Sweden one now.

Ukraine looked pretty decent but Slovenia were no great shakes especially defensively. Not much difference between us and the swedes/Danes either. However, the swedes do have Zlatan who leads the line superbly, the way he lays off long balls and links with midfield is something we can only dream of. The overlap with the RB that led to their goal is something we should be doing given we have one of the best players in the world in that position.

[geysir]

Said I'd bump this for the other three playoffs. Ideal result for Ukraine earlier. I only saw bits but they looked well worth their 2-0 advantage. Their winger, Konoplyanka, looks a fine player every time I see him. Liverpool had a deal almost done for him at one point, before Dnipro stalled I think. They ended up paying £10m more for Adam Lallana, ouch! He was outstanding for Sevilla the other night against Real Madrid too. Sweden v Denmark starting now.
There must be a fair bit of money in the Ukranian league, Everton wanted to sign
Yarmolenko for GBP15m, he scored the first goal today and took it really well, however he wasn't interested enough in Everton to leave Kiev.

[geysir]

Zlatan the great scores from the penalty spot.
If it stays 2 nil (at least), I presume Zlatan won't bother playing the 2nd leg and will return to his club.

[geysir]

Watched a good bit of the Ukraine game and watching the Sweden one now.

Ukraine looked pretty decent but Slovenia were no great shakes especially defensively. Not much difference between us and the swedes/Danes either. However, the swedes do have Zlatan who leads the line superbly, the way he lays off long balls and links with midfield is something we can only dream of. The overlap with the RB that led to their goal is something we should be doing given we have one of the best players in the world in that position.
I'd say Sweden with Zlatan are a good deal better than us all round and the Danes are much worse, though it's possible that the Danes are so poor they make Sweden look even better than they are. Sweden should be 5 up by now, on the hours mark.

[elroy]

I'd say Sweden with Zlatan are a good deal better than us all round and the Danes are much worse, though it's possible that the Danes are so poor they make Sweden look even better than they are. Sweden should be 5 up by now, on the hours mark.

Not that long ago and with similar teams we drew with them away and left a one nil lead slip at home. So they are hardly a good deal better than us.

[DeLorean]

They did finish six points ahead of us though which is quite a bit. Definitely happy we avoided them despite a lot of people preferring them to Bosnia at the time.

[elroy]

Look a very different team now, on the ropes

[DeLorean]

Really sets up the second leg.

[tricky_colour]

Yea, looks like we did well to avoid Ukraine, would not like to be starting 2-0 down in Dublin.

[Bungle]

I wouldn't agree. Zlatan is the best player in these playoffs but I'd consider Sweden on a par with us.

Ukraine are comfortably the best team and Ireland,Bosnia,Sweden and Denmark are all similiar quality. Norway, Slovenia and Hungary don't look great.

[geysir]

Look a very different team now, on the ropes
2 nil is a difficult lead for a team with the game going into the last 30 minutes of the first leg, :)
more difficult than playing against 10 men!

The last thing I wanted in our first leg game was Bosnia to get a second to go 2-1 up, then our goose would have likely been cooked. At the end of the game the Danes were probably puffed up and the Swedes left the pitch a bit rueful but when the dust settles, 2-1 is a very decent lead.
That Emil Forsberg looks an outstanding attacking player for Sweden and he just plays for a 2nd div German club.

[DeLorean]

There was one Swedish player celebrating like mad, he's obviously not a slave to the away goal rule! I suppose it depends on the context, Sweden conceding was a bit of a killer for them, totally dominated the game and were looking as good as through at 2-0, now they only have the bare minimum you would hope for going into the second leg. Had Denmark gone one up yesterday and Sweden scored two late goals to turn it around then the mindset would be completely different. They'll feel more than capable of scoring in Copenhagen anyway though and if they do, you'd expect that to be enough to see them through.

[DeLorean]

What a goal for Hungary! Priskin.

[DeLorean]

Don't think I know any of these Hungarians bar the captain Dzsudzsak. I don't know much about him either but I saw him playing for PSV a few years ago in a 4-3 win over Ajax. Himself and Suarez were both amazing that day, I thought I'd be hearing a lot more of Dzsudzsak. I think Arsenal were linked with him at one point alright and I remember him going to that Russian crowd that were loaded, then broke. Anyway, other than Bogdan on the bench I don't think I know any of the others. I love this spread out week of football craic!

[elroy]

It's great. I think it has done a lot for the profile of international football. The surprises thrown up in this qualification campaign has also helped.

Looking at the results of both Hungry and Norway from qualifying, it's a surprise that Hungry are now seemingly coasting through.

[Stuttgart88]

I've always loved Hungary's kit. Iconic. It'd be great to see them back. The chapter in Jonsthan Wilson's book "Behind the Curtain" paints a pretty grim picture of their domestic governance and structures though. Think ours and multiply it.

[DeLorean]

They've ridden their luck but they're definitely on their way now, 3-0 on aggregate.

[pineapple stu]

Don't think I know any of these Hungarians bar the captain Dzsudzsak.
Priskin, who scored tonight, is ex-Ipswich and played against ucd for Slovan in the europa league this year.

Couldn't score against us in either leg, but off to the euros now. Reflects well on us. :-)

[davidatrb]

Hungary qualified tonight and with that result Ireland (if they qualify - 8/13 on Paddy Power) will be in Pot 4 for the EURO 2016 Group Stage draw. We will face three teams theoretically superior.

So how will the Pots look if Ireland do qualify. Let's make the assumption that both Ukraine and Sweden who are ahead in their ties also qualify.

Pot 1
France (host)
Germany
Spain
England
Portugal
Belgium

Pot 2
Italy
Russia
Switzerland
Austria
Croatia
Ukraine *

Pot 3
Czech Republic
Sweden **
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Hungary

Pot 4
Turkey
Ireland ***
Iceland
Wales
Albania
N. Ireland

* If Slovenia qualify then they join Pot 4. Turkey are promoted to Pot 3 and Czech are promoted to Pot 2.

** If Denmark qualify ahead of Sweden it won't change anything - they will slot into Pot 3 in the swedes place.

*** If Bosnia qualify instead of Ireland then our hearts will break.

[DeLorean]

Great work David, great to have this kind of info at hand. That seeding actually looks quite fair at a glance. I don't think I'd swap too much around if I was ranking them, maybe put Turkey in Pot 3 instead of Hungary.

[Crosby87]

The Albanian hooligans will ravage you sweet chaps.

[Charlie Darwin]

So if we qualify we'll avoid the mighty Iceland. We're practically through already!

[Gather round]

Great work David, great to have this kind of info at hand. That seeding actually looks quite fair at a glance. I don't think I'd swap too much around if I was ranking them, maybe put Turkey in Pot 3 instead of Hungary

NI had a better record in qualifying than all the other pot four teams and many from pots two or three. Austria are still ranked by UEFA below Netherlands.

[Gather round]

Looking at the results of both Hungry and Norway from qualifying, it's a surprise that Hungry are now seemingly coasting through

Hungary had an eight match unbeaten run in a tough group ;)

[DeLorean]

NI had a better record in qualifying than all the other pot four teams and many from pots two or three. Austria are still ranked by UEFA below Netherlands.

So obviously the rankings are based on more than just this campaign? I'd rate most of the Pot 3 teams as being better than ourselves and yourselves, Hungary excluded possibly and maybe Romania too. I'd still prefer to draw ye than either of those to be honest even though I know ye outperformed both.

[Gather round]

So obviously the rankings are based on more than just this campaign? I'd rate most of the Pot 3 teams as being better than ourselves and yourselves, Hungary excluded possibly and maybe Romania too. I'd still prefer to draw ye than either of those to be honest even though I know ye outperformed both

UEFA, FIFA, Elo and others all have objective ways of ranking the teams, their results can differ significantly.

NI were rubbish for years and may be so again next June. But at the moment we're the 12th best team in Europe based on qualifying results. It would be arguably just as 'fair' to use them for seeding.

[DeLorean]

I meant 'fair' as, in my opinion, it seems to accurately reflect the order of the best to worst teams. I'd imagine William Hill and co. would agree for the most part. Just because it would have suited NI better if they only used this qualification campaign to determine seeding, it doesn't make it unfair that they have presumably taken past performance into account also. We could argue that it would be fairer if qualifying for the most recent Euros should carry more weight and we'd jump ahead of a lot of teams, but my point was that whatever system they have used, they seem to have ended up with a very accurate reflection of the standard of the teams that have qualified I think.

[Gather round]

I meant 'fair' as, in my opinion, it seems to accurately reflect the order of the best to worst teams

We disagree. Points in qualifying most accurately reflect who's best
in qualifying, in my opinion. That's why Albania are going and Netherlands aren't.


I'd imagine William Hill and co. would agree for the most part

Broadly, yes. But then bookies odds reflect more than what they think the real probability of a particular outcome is. They follow the punters.


Just because it would have suited NI better if they only used this qualification campaign to determine seeding, it doesn't make it unfair that they have presumably taken past performance into account also

The country most disadvantaged by UEFA's ranking/ seeding system is currently Iceland. They finished second last time yet were only seeded fifth this. The system disadvantages smaller countries (who are less likely to qualify consistently), basically because UEFA prefers to protect the bigger TV markets.


We could argue that it would be fairer if qualifying for the most recent Euros should carry more weight and we'd jump ahead of a lot of teams, but my point was that whatever system they have used, they seem to have ended up with a very accurate reflection of the standard of the teams that have qualified I think

See above, I don'r recognise your very accurate reflection. The best to be said of their system is that we all know in advance how its bias works.

[DeLorean]

The system disadvantages smaller countries (who are less likely to qualify consistently), basically because UEFA prefers to protect the bigger TV markets.

Probably, but surely qualifying consistently should serve a nation well when it comes to seeding? Anyway, Austria and Belgium, for example, are in the top two pots despite not qualifying consistently, or at all in quite a while, so there's obviously a reasonable amount of weight given to recent form also? Italy could feel hard done by maybe to be out of the top seeds seeing as they finished runners up four years ago and have topped their qualification groups since. I find it difficult to see how Belgium would be ranked ahead of them but then, they're somehow the best team in the world also!

[Kingdom]

Delighted Hungary are in. They're colours remind me of those sticker albums around Italia 90 that had all the golden matches of previous world cups.

I feel Denmark are going to turn Sweden over in Kobenhaven.

[geysir]

So if we qualify we'll avoid the mighty Iceland. We're practically through already!
Ireland (regarded as cannon fodder) wasn't on our radar anyway for pot 3 opponents, Iceland want Sweden for obvious reasons or Denmark for more obvious reasons. There are greater issues at hand.

[Gather round]

Anyway, Austria and Belgium, for example, are in the top two pots despite not qualifying consistently, or at all in quite a while, so there's obviously a reasonable amount of weight given to recent form also?

I think only 2014 qualifying results should have been used to seed 2016 qualifying, and only the latter's results to seed the play offs. So that reasonable amount should be 100%, not 40% as present. We probably won't agree on this ;)

[DeLorean]

Probably not but I did phrase my initial comment poorly also. All I meant is that the order looks about right in terms of who's best, fairness didn't really come into it becasue I'm not even sure what way the rankings came about :)

[davidatrb]

Broadly, yes. But then bookies odds reflect more than what they think the real probability of a particular outcome is. They follow the punters.


The bookie's odds I feel are made up of three things:

1. Stats, maths, algorithms, distributions, probability theory ...
2. Where the money is at...
3. Some expert opinion or subjective analysis maybe...

Paddypower sometimes releases a breakdown of where the money is at and the odds don't really reflect where the punters money is at all (Man Utd/Liverpool would be favourite to win the Prem every year!). I think 99% of how the football odds are calculated are based on mathematics and is pretty close to a true probability. Some markets where there is not as much stats available (like maiden races for example) might be more driven by where the money is. But in football I dont think they can afford to waiver far off what the true probability is .....

If someone knows more about how the odds are generated then let me know ... I'm interested in the Maths behind.




The country most disadvantaged by UEFA's ranking/ seeding system is currently Iceland. They finished second last time yet were only seeded fifth this. The system disadvantages smaller countries (who are less likely to qualify consistently), basically because UEFA prefers to protect the bigger TV markets.


The system doesn't really disadvantage anyone. The system advantages teams that win games, score goals and progress to the latter stages of the tournaments - i.e. good teams whether big or small.

Its spread over only three campaigns - so its not that you have to be consistently qualifying - just have a decent recent record.

Euro 2012 (incl Qualifying)
World Cup 2014 (incl Qualifying)
Euro 2016 Qualifying.

With oldest campaign weighted at 20% and other two weighted at 40%.

I think its open and every team has the same opportunity to score points. I don't think it ranks teams accurately but this is down to outlyer results, easy groups, limited matches etc. I don't think there is a concerted effort to favour big countries.

How have Iceland been disadvantaged? Because they were 5th seed? They were 5th seed because they had every opportunity that every other country had to win games and qualify for tournaments - but they didn't.

Yes they finished second in the last qualification campaign - but they were awarded just as much ranking points as other teams that finished second like Sweden, Denmark for that campaign. Their problem was the qualifying campaign for Euro 2012 where they only won once.

When you look at it they have only won 12 competitive games in the last 3 campaigns from 30 games, and most of those wins (11) are in the recent campaigns that have the bigger weighting - so the seeding system actually quite suits Iceland at the moment.