Euro 2016 Qualifying

[NeverFeltBetter]

Also, that article, from Google translate, seems to indicate this idea would replace friendly fixtures, not Euro qualifiers and the Euro's themselves.

Which it won't of course.

[geysir]

Table-tennis tomorrow stutts if you are up for it.

I have a good feeling about Friday.

CD you said it was the third behind bundesliga and Spain.flavour of the month with posters on here regards the leagues but that's what you said. You added something about mid table Spanish beating mid table premiership I doubted it and at the time it was possible to prove.I think Swansea winning 3-0 refutes your assertion.
Don't tell me you are also one of the silly Daily Sun type readers who haven't a clue about spanish league football, who select the travails of one spanish team and use that as proof of the demise of Spanish football, proving that all those here who like Spanish football are prematurely ejaculating morons who haven't a clue about real football, poke fun at them for reading other larger papers with more words in them, suggesting that the poor spanish football loving morons might in fact be brainwashed by the Guardian.

[ArdeeBhoy]

What a cast-iron source.

Did anyone say it was?
:rolleyes:


Though UEFA/FIFA become more gormless with every passing year.

[Junior]

In fairness to Paul I think he was taking a swipe at those who accept our fate because "we don't have the players" or the occasional wise owl who prefers the devil he knows, despite knowing his faults, and who thinks there's no merit in discussing anything other than plain old 442 and hoofball.

Well Stutts if you are going to step in as Pauls beeatchhh (or even spin doctor?)- Are there many (if any) posters on here who have just accepted our fate of this last campaign based on the above? Has anyone ever posted "there is no merit in discussing different formations? I dont think so. There are elements in what you say that I consider valid points but not to the extent of blind defeatism and acceptance of mediocrity.Revisionism....

At what point should Trap have been fired then?

A- Before the play off defeat to France?
B- Before we qualified for the Euro's?
C- After the poor showing in Poland?
D-After the 1-6 defeat to Germany, which was followed by credible away results and performances v Faroes 4-1 and Sweden 0-0 ?
E- After the 2-2 draw versus Austria?
F- After the double header defeat to Sweden at home and Austria away?


On reflection perhaps point C was the time for him to go. I didnt think so at the time despite the disappointment after the Euros. However, once he was kept on for another campaign I dont see when he should have gone any earlier than when he did. Posslbly at point E but it was all fairly marginal at that point and a home victory versus Sweden could have made a difference to the campaing - even if it was only papering over the cracks. He went after the next games anyway. Lets not forget the financial implications of getting rid of Trap mid campaign either (whether we like it or not Im certain that was a factor in any of the Board discussions regarding Traps role).

On a positive note, I really hope Noel's teams have a good go over the next couple of games - nothing to lose and the fans need something now to get excited about.

[Charlie Darwin]

Table-tennis tomorrow stutts if you are up for it.

I have a good feeling about Friday.

CD you said it was the third behind bundesliga and Spain.flavour of the month with posters on here regards the leagues but that's what you said. You added something about mid table Spanish beating mid table premiership I doubted it and at the time it was possible to prove.I think Swansea winning 3-0 refutes your assertion.
If I said that perhaps I was being hyperbolic. Certainly mid-table La Liga sides are technically superior to their EPL counterparts in general. Swansea beat a Valencia team in financial and on-field crisis after they'd have a player sent off within 8 minutes. It's hardly indicative of the leagues' relative strengths.

[ArdeeBhoy]

At what point should Trap have been fired then?

A- Before the play off defeat to France?
B- Before we qualified for the Euro's?
C- After the poor showing in Poland?
D-After the 1-6 defeat to Germany, which was followed by credible away results and performances v Faroes 4-1 and Sweden 0-0 ?
E- After the 2-2 draw versus Austria?
F- After the double header defeat to Sweden at home and Austria away?


On reflection perhaps point C was the time for him to go. I didnt think so at the time despite the disappointment after the Euros. However, once he was kept on for another campaign I dont see when he should have gone any earlier than when he did. Posslbly at point E but it was all fairly marginal at that point and a home victory versus Sweden could have made a difference to the campaing - even if it was only papering over the cracks. He went after the next games anyway. Lets not forget the financial implications of getting rid of Trap mid campaign either (whether we like it or not Im certain that was a factor in any of the Board discussions regarding Traps role).
This.

[Junior]

This.

With a €3m payoff I presume?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Up to the FAI & O'Brien. And call his bluff, too. Never mind the morons who signed off that extension at that price...
A small price anyway, maybe to avoid alienating 'the wider Irish soccer public' ?

But he's gone now anyway.

[Stuttgart88]

Well Stutts if you are going to step in as Pauls beeatchhh (or even spin doctor?)- Are there many (if any) posters on here who have just accepted our fate of this last campaign based on the above? Has anyone ever posted "there is no merit in discussing different formations? I dont think so. There are elements in what you say that I consider valid points but not to the extent of blind defeatism and acceptance of mediocrity.Revisionism....

At what point should Trap have been fired then?

A- Before the play off defeat to France?
B- Before we qualified for the Euro's?
C- After the poor showing in Poland?
D-After the 1-6 defeat to Germany, which was followed by credible away results and performances v Faroes 4-1 and Sweden 0-0 ?
E- After the 2-2 draw versus Austria?
F- After the double header defeat to Sweden at home and Austria away?


On reflection perhaps point C was the time for him to go. I didnt think so at the time despite the disappointment after the Euros. However, once he was kept on for another campaign I dont see when he should have gone any earlier than when he did. Posslbly at point E but it was all fairly marginal at that point and a home victory versus Sweden could have made a difference to the campaing - even if it was only papering over the cracks. He went after the next games anyway. Lets not forget the financial implications of getting rid of Trap mid campaign either (whether we like it or not Im certain that was a factor in any of the Board discussions regarding Traps role).

On a positive note, I really hope Noel's teams have a good go over the next couple of games - nothing to lose and the fans need something now to get excited about.
The clue was in the term "wise owl"! Yes, I think there have been some who have laughed off manager change / tactical change as fantasy talk or suggesting that we'd be the new Wales if we did. Most here have been pretty clear in the criticism of the campaign, but there have been more than a few who found it hard to be overly critical of Trap. Quite a few even thought we played well against Austria in Dublin.

Regarding the other question: I'd have probably kept him on after C, on balance, and I was very disillusioned after D but still would have resisted making the call if it was my decision (though I wouldn't have been unhappy if he had gone then), but I was apoplectic after E and felt that he had to go then. I was also apoplectic that Trap ignored the lessons from a good showing in Stockholm.

I had no confidence at all after Austria at home that what we needed to do at home to Sweden would be done. I was hopeful as all fans probably are, but not expectant.

[DeLorean]

Quite a few even thought we played well against Austria in Dublin.

You say that like it's a fact that they're wrong. I was definitely one of those. We were excellent in the first half in my opinion. I don't have a problem with it being down to attitude and tempo more than guile. I remember your views on the performance, which you're more than entitled to but not necessarily right. Nor does somebody believing we played well mean they are finding it difficult to be critical of Trap. I thought we looked like we had goals in us in that first half, especially, more so than the Sweden away match. We might not have looked as tidy and kept the ball as well but we were far more threatening.

I can't remember the moment that we retreated into ultimate submission but there was plenty to be annoyed about from that point forward, and plenty of blame attributed to the manager who did worse than nothing to stem the tide. Literally worse than nothing.

[Junior]

The clue was in the term "wise owl"! Yes, I think there have been some who have laughed off manager change / tactical change as fantasy talk or suggesting that we'd be the new Wales if we did. Most here have been pretty clear in the criticism of the campaign, but there have been more than a few who found it hard to be overly critical of Trap. Quite a few even thought we played well against Austria in Dublin.

Without going back over old posts in the forum 'The new Wales' type comments (and I didnt make them) may have been based on what type of manager we would get in as a replacement. TBH, I was always (incorrectly as it happens) of the opinion that the next manager would be on a package which was a fraction of Traps and hence the quality of candidate would be severly lacking - something that could have seen a repeat of the Staunton type era. I don't know, its all if's but and maybe's at the moment but we'll have to wait and see out the new guy pans out.

Our 2nd half performance against the Austrians was a disaster. I read a few comments suggesting we were unlucky to concede so late but that is all I recall - I think almost everyone to a man, accepted that the equaliser was inevitable. If you recall posters suggesting we played well, then fair enough I dont doubt you - It was hard reading this forum in the aftermath of that result :(


Regarding the other question: I'd have probably kept him on after C, on balance, and I was very disillusioned after D but still would have resisted making the call if it was my decision (though I wouldn't have been unhappy if he had gone then), but I was apoplectic after E and felt that he had to go then. I was also apoplectic that Trap ignored the lessons from a good showing in Stockholm.

I had no confidence at all after Austria at home that what we needed to do at home to Sweden would be done. I was hopeful as all fans probably are, but not expectant.

So that pretty much mirrors my thoughts exactly. If I had the decision to make it was borderline to do it after E (but little point at that stage) and certainly after point F.

So I dont get where this view (from Paul) is that some of our supporters are happy to accept being rubbish. A few wanted to give Trap a bit longer than the majority of fans, thats about it......

[Closed Account 2]

To be fair at point C he intimated there would be changes in the make up of the team as he acknowledged Euro 2012 wasnt a success. He talked about players like McClean and McCarthy allowing us to see if we could "change the system" (or words to that effect). Obviously it didn't pan out that way, we just ended up with the rigid system with some of our better players (Duff, Given) leaving, but back in the summer of 2012 he was making noises about changing the approach.

The other question to ask (at any of the stages, A to F) is who would we have got in. Even when people on this forum were clamouring for him to go after Kazakhstan (or it might have been Germany) there wasn't really a big list of viable candidates, even now there still isn't that much to chose from. At least at the end of a campaign there are in theory more options available - in 1-2 months there could be the likes of Hodgson, Terim, Morten Olsen, Paolo Bento, Deschamps, Tabarez, Fernando Santos available - all of them have done well at international tournaments with unfancied teams (although with Bento and Deschamps its with clubs in the CL rather than countries).

[Stuttgart88]

DeLorean, I hope you know that I rarely say anyone is wrong when I don't agree with him. I never say that I am right either, though by definition I almost always think I'm right! We all think we're right. But all it ever is is an opinion.

Unlike your opinion, I thought we were all huff and puff in the first half at home to Austria, but it was purposeful huff and puff and we played on the front foot and at times at a high tempo. In that sense it was a pleasant change, but coming so soon after an away performance where we played in a controlled and effective manner I thought it was a big step backwards.

Junior, you still think I might be talking about you. You're not actually that old anyway. I did offer you a clue by saying "wise owl". I'll make it even more clear. Take away the word "wise". You're left with "owl". Now add an "s" and the word "fan". That's who I think Paul was referring to.

Anyway, Paul can defend himself from now on.

[Fixer82]

Well Stutts if you are going to step in as Pauls beeatchhh (or even spin doctor?)- Are there many (if any) posters on here who have just accepted our fate of this last campaign based on the above? Has anyone ever posted "there is no merit in discussing different formations? I dont think so. There are elements in what you say that I consider valid points but not to the extent of blind defeatism and acceptance of mediocrity.Revisionism....

At what point should Trap have been fired then?

A- Before the play off defeat to France?
B- Before we qualified for the Euro's?
C- After the poor showing in Poland?
D-After the 1-6 defeat to Germany, which was followed by credible away results and performances v Faroes 4-1 and Sweden 0-0 ?
E- After the 2-2 draw versus Austria?
F- After the double header defeat to Sweden at home and Austria away?


On reflection perhaps point C was the time for him to go. I didnt think so at the time despite the disappointment after the Euros. However, once he was kept on for another campaign I dont see when he should have gone any earlier than when he did. Posslbly at point E but it was all fairly marginal at that point and a home victory versus Sweden could have made a difference to the campaing - even if it was only papering over the cracks. He went after the next games anyway. Lets not forget the financial implications of getting rid of Trap mid campaign either (whether we like it or not Im certain that was a factor in any of the Board discussions regarding Traps role).

On a positive note, I really hope Noel's teams have a good go over the next couple of games - nothing to lose and the fans need something now to get excited about.

To be fair to the FAI, the deal was 'if you get us qualified, we will extend your contract'
And that's often the way it goes with these contract.s If you hit the targets we set, you get a contract extension.

Germany drubbing was followed by credible performances and it may have been unfair to sack him until it was plainly obvious it had to happen after Sweden and Austria.
We were all very very hopeful with half an hour gone in the Sweden game.
An hour later everyone wanted him out.

EURO 2012 was a disaster and we were all pretty sick of Trap's system by then.
But until that point he had succeeded in hitting his targets

[ArdeeBhoy]

Have people only just noticed he got the sack...
:rolleyes:

[Junior]

Oh dont worry Stutts, I got the Owl reference and I didnt think you (or Paul for that matter) were really referring to me. So thats it then, Paul got his knickers in a twist because one poster was a more staunch supporter of Trap than seemed reasonable. If only he had put it that way and we could have saved ourselves some typing.

Anyway, Im sure he's finished in the Jacks by now and can come back and see the anguish he has caused ;)

[DeLorean]

DeLorean, I hope you know that I rarely say anyone is wrong when I don't agree with him. I never say that I am right either, though by definition I almost always think I'm right! We all think we're right. But all it ever is is an opinion.

Of course, and I know you don't.


there have been more than a few who found it hard to be overly critical of Trap. Quite a few even thought we played well against Austria in Dublin.

This just reads to me like you're saying that some people only thought we played well because they didn't want to criticise Trap, or something similar. I think most people can separate the good from the bad regardless of personal affinities or indifferences.

[Stuttgart88]

The jist of some commentary was that criticism of Trap was futile because we might get worse. That's like not dumping the girlfriend you've grown tired of in case the next one is worse. There was also a fair bit of sophistry thrown in wrt formations.

Anyway, I thought Andy Reid's comments in all the papers today was interesting. He says all the Irish players have experience of playing in different shapes and formations anyway. As has been argued here before, it's not about the formations anyway, but about the players and the type of players picked.

[shakermaker1982]

The Guardian have now got an article up about this international league. Can't put it up because I'm using my mobile.

[back of the net]

The Guardian have now got an article up about this international league. Can't put it up because I'm using my mobile.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/oct/10/uefa-internationals-nations-league-friendlies

[Stuttgart88]

I don't think it's that bad an idea. I've discussed similar with some friends in the past. I'd prefer to be playing similar standard teams all the time, than minnows and giants. However, the loss of the finals tournament would be a real shame and it'd open up the possibility of only a handful of European World Cup places being genuinely up for grabs.

It looks like the personal battle between Blatter and Platini is starting to have profound consequences and you'd have to worry that both are putting personal self interest ahead of the broader good.

[Yard of Pace]

Blatter putting personal interest ahead of the broader good??????! Get out of town!

[Stuttgart88]

True!

I suppose my point was more that a UEFA / FIFA power struggle cold just end up harming everyone. Still, having heard what Steve Menary was saying recently about Jack Warner ( see non FIFA sovereigns thread) I'd be inclined to kick FIFA into touch altogether. Warmer basically secured FIFA membership for all kinds of two-bit Caribbean islands with no football infrastructure, so much so that they now account for 10% of the voting rights of global football.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I don't think it's that bad an idea. I've discussed similar with some friends in the past. I'd prefer to be playing similar standard teams all the time, than minnows and giants. However, the loss of the finals tournament would be a real shame and it'd open up the possibility of only a handful of European World Cup places being genuinely up for grabs.

It looks like the personal battle between Blatter and Platini is starting to have profound consequences and you'd have to worry that both are putting personal self interest ahead of the broader good.

That isn't what this idea is suggesting.

[paul_oshea]

Jason CUndy is on talksport saying how bad his summer will be ,how bad the British summer will be how his whole year will be ruined, another possible recession etc etc....all on my way home from a 15 hour day knowing Ireland are already gone and ones missing out on Germany tomorrow.its tough to take.but what he said really resonates.the summer is ruined cos of this.

[Stuttgart88]

That isn't what this idea is suggesting.
Which part, the finals tournament or the wc qualifiers?

If this league took place would it not replace the qualifiers, or would it only replace international friendlies? I think I get it now, only the friendly dates are used for this league format over 2 years.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Which is what the translation of the Swedish article said, as NFB pointed out, which makes it an even dafter idea?

Unless they plan to get rid of the Euros?

[paul_oshea]

True!

I suppose my point was more that a UEFA / FIFA power struggle cold just end up harming everyone. Still, having heard what Steve Menary was saying recently about Jack Warner ( see non FIFA sovereigns thread) I'd be inclined to kick FIFA into touch altogether. Warmer basically secured FIFA membership for all kinds of two-bit Caribbean islands with no football infrastructure, so much so that they now account for 10% of the voting rights of global football.

Good old Jack is going for primeminister of Trinidad and Tobago, one mans swindler is another mans robin hood.

[BonnieShels]

I would be all for this again once it doesn't impinge on the real tournaments themselves. I'm presuming the FIFA rankings are only going to be used for the first iteration and then it becomes straight promotion relegation ad inititum?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I don't consider it an inherently bad idea. Its certainly workable, alongside the qualifiers, as only friendly dates will be used.

But is just strikes me that there will be a lot of resistance to have that many fully competitive international fixtures on the calender. Friendlies are oft-derided, but they serve a purpose, allowing managers and coaches to try new thing, tactics, squads etc in an environment that won't be catastrophic if they lose.

My concern then would be that such a "league" would be treated as just another Nations Cup - friendlies, only slightly more glorified. Germany and Spain will not be interested in killing themselves playing the very best teams in Europe a few days before or after a Euro qualifier.

[Stuttgart88]

The Examiner thinks it's to replace qualifying:

http://www.examiner.ie/sport/soccer/uefa-ponder-radical-change-to-qualifying-246007.html

[Stuttgart88]

There's a fella on ybig who worked it out that we are dependent on Norway and Turkey not winning their two remaining matches - taking it that we lose to the Germans and we beat Kazakhstan, to be second seeds.
Ok, prompted by Ardee Bhoy I had to go backwards through 7 pages of this thread to get to this point.

Where do we stand as of today? We need to win on Tuesday and hope for what else to happen to be a second seed? Turkey not win? I suppose they'll be hard pushed to beat the Dutch, even at home.

I was fearing we might even be a 4th seed but obviously that's too pessimistic.

I saw kingdom saying Hungary aren't that bad. They lost 8-1 on Friday. I bet their manager would have envied Noel King!

[ArdeeBhoy]

Change your settings to 40 posts per page, then it'll only be 'Page 4'.
;)

[geysir]

Ok, prompted by Ardee Bhoy I had to go backwards through 7 pages of this thread to get to this point.

Where do we stand as of today? We need to win on Tuesday and hope for what else to happen to be a second seed? Turkey not win? I suppose they'll be hard pushed to beat the Dutch, even at home.

I was fearing we might even be a 4th seed but obviously that's too pessimistic.

I saw kingdom saying Hungary aren't that bad. They lost 8-1 on Friday. I bet their manager would have envied Noel King!
The Euro seedings are done differently, just calculated over the previous 3 qual campaigns and because we did well under Trap in the first 2 campaigns where teams just collapsed against us/got players sent off/missed sitters/we won outrageous penalties/ got draws against teams who just happened to be at the nadir of their form, because of all that we are still clinging to pot 2.

The UEFA coefficients/rankings are not as volatile as the FIFA rankings appear to be. If FIFA rankings were used we would be in pot 4

[Stuttgart88]

You forgot "cowardly taking advantage of foreign invasion".

[ArdeeBhoy]

Ha, obscure, but good!

[Bungle]

The Euro seedings are done differently, just calculated over the previous 3 qual campaigns and because we did well under Trap in the first 2 campaigns where teams just collapsed against us/got players sent off/missed sitters/we won outrageous penalties/ got draws against teams who just happened to be at the nadir of their form, because of all that we are still clinging to pot 2.

The UEFA coefficients/rankings are not as volatile as the FIFA rankings appear to be. If FIFA rankings were used we would be in pot 4

Just out of interest, if we went and had a very good two years, qualifying for euro 2016 and winning a lot of friendlies, would we be able to make 2nd seeds for World Cup 2018 qualifiers?

I do think a lot depends on the draw. I would probably fear Romania, Serbia, and Turkey as third seeds, than Greece, who are first seeds I'd imagine. For me, those three are better teams, even if they haven't the recent ability of Greece to make tournaments.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Hmm, just re-read that link.
http://greenscene.me/2013/09/euro-2016-qualifying-seeding-predictions/

Don't know how much the results on Friday affected this, but looks like we should also be hoping Bulgaria beat the Czechs on Tuesday and Serbia are held to a draw?
Never mind Turkey...

[elroy]

Credit to SuperDave on YBIG for this:

Okay, current position is this:

Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, England, Russia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden

Bosnia, Croatia, [France], Ukraine, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey

Slovenia, Ireland, Israel, Slovakia, Norway, Romania, Serbia, Austria, Montenegro.....

Now, we need to make some assumptions, the first of which is, we win.

If Turkey DRAW (or lose) and Slovenia DRAW (or lose), and we win, we WILL pass both of them (assuming they do not make the playoffs).

Now, that's not the end of the matter, because Turkey and Slovenia can make the playoffs even with draws. Of the other teams beneath us, Israel, Slovakia, Norway, Serbia, Austria and Montenegro cannot make the playoffs (well, Montenegro can, but it is very, very, very unlikely) even with wins (lets for the sake of argument say they all win 5-0, not one can pass us, if we win). The problems start with Turkey, Romania and Slovenia.... if Turkey draw and Romania win, then we need to worry about the Romanian playoff. If Romania win both legs of their playoff, they would overtake us and push us back into third seeds. If Turkey make the playoffs (drawing with the Netherlands, Romania not beating Estonia), a win and a draw for them in both legs of the playoff and they would pass us. If Slovenia make the playoffs (which could happen if they draw and Iceland lose to Norway, although they could be the worst second placed team), a win and a draw in both legs of their playoffs would see them overtake us.

We have no chance of catching the teams above Turkey and Slovenia. Hungary are at home to Andorra and so will win and stay ahead of us, and the Czech Republic are too far ahead of us. It's still complicated, but chances are if we win, given the nature of the fixtures, we should be second seeds.

[geysir]

Just out of interest, if we went and had a very good two years, qualifying for euro 2016 and winning a lot of friendlies, would we be able to make 2nd seeds for World Cup 2018 qualifiers?

I do think a lot depends on the draw. I would probably fear Romania, Serbia, and Turkey as third seeds, than Greece, who are first seeds I'd imagine. For me, those three are better teams, even if they haven't the recent ability of Greece to make tournaments.
It's a yes, to all you have written.

Unless they get through the playoffs, probably Greece's time as a top seed is over, as Karagounis rides out into the sunset and all those 1 nils become harder and harder to hold onto.

[IsMiseSean]

You'd think a team that got hammered 8-1 Friday night wouldn't be in pot 2. The rankings can be strange sometimes....

[Stuttgart88]

FAI and Noel King were unaware of the seeding situation

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/selecting-republic-of-ireland-team-is-proving-a-nightmare-for-interim-boss-noel-king-1.1559480

[Kingdom]

If Slovenia make the playoffs (which could happen if they draw and Iceland lose to Norway, although they could be the worst second placed team), a win and a draw in both legs of their playoffs would see them overtake us.



In the case of Slovenia, surely they cannot overtake us then, as if they're the worst runner up, then they won't have any playoff matches to get ahead of us?

[Closed Account 2]

But I think if Slovenia win and Iceland don't win then they will go second and probably not be the "worst 2nd" - which looks like being Denmark or Bulgaria. If this happens then Slovenia will get into the play offs and good results in the play offs will see them overtake us.

[BonnieShels]

And yet we have to wait til Feb for the raw.

At least Brazil 2014 is in December. I love a good draw me.

[Kingdom]

Yeah just see that there now re: Slovenia.

About Hungary, I don't believe they are anything to be afraid of, but nor do I believe they'd be a guaranteed 6 points. They've done ok in the last two campaigns, and it should be pointed out that the Dutch have scored over 20 goals against them in the last two campaigns, which is more than all the other teams put together. (21 vs 13) so I'd pay zero attention to their form vs Holland.

it's underage where they're coming on. They've had a lot of isolated decent performances, from U17 through to Under 21's, even if actual achievements are small.
They knocked Portugal out at Elite Stage of the 2008 euro's, finishing 3rd in the finals, knocking Spain out in the group stage. This qualified them for the 09 World youth cup, where they again finished 3rd, despite a tonking in their first game, winning their group, and then defeating Czechs, Italy, before losing to winners Ghana.

That said, looking at those seeding groups, they are the team you would want to be drawing really, if we do turn out to be a 3rd seed.

[geysir]

By my reckoning Israel are just ahead of us in the rankings after their away draw to Portugal and now have an easy last game.
These were the rankings (http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/09/euro-2016-qualifying-draw-seeding-20.html) on Sept 20, there's ca 1,000 points for a draw and 2,000 for a win. In all likelihood we will be 3rd seeds.


If there is a 9/1 chance before any qualifying draw, of Ireland getting Iceland in their group and we have had 7 qual draws since they were last paired, does that make the odds the same or different, that they will be paired for Euro 2016?
And if you don't think the odds are any different, would you say the same about the odds in a game of Russian Roulette with 9 chambers in the gun, entering into the 8th round?

[Stuttgart88]

The events are independent of each other.

Here's another probability problem:

You're in a game show and you have 3 upside down cups, one with a valuable coin underneath, the others with nothing.

If you guess right you keep the coin. You are asked to select a cup by pointing to it. Then the compere takes away one cup that he knows does not contain the coin.

Should you stick with your original selection or switch?

[Kingdom]

The events are independent of each other.

Here's another probability problem:

You're in a game show and you have 3 upside down cups, one with a valuable coin underneath, the others with nothing.

If you guess right you keep the coin. You are asked to select a cup by pointing to it. Then the compere takes away one cup that he knows does not contain the coin.

Should you stick with your original selection or switch?

Don't the odds implore you to switch your choice. That was in a film I saw once with kevin spacey and jim sturgess.

[DannyInvincible]

FAI and Noel King were unaware of the seeding situation

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/selecting-republic-of-ireland-team-is-proving-a-nightmare-for-interim-boss-noel-king-1.1559480

Not only were they unaware, they provided King with incorrect information.


With Ireland needing to win in order to maintain their hopes of winning a four-way race with Slovenia, Romania and Turkey for a second seeding in the qualifying stages for Euro2016, the Dubliner – who apparently was not aware of the seeding situation after being told by the association these games would not count towards France – said that he will retain the basic 4-2-3-1 system employed in Germany but that there will be changes even if he has not quite settled on what they are likely to be.

Hard to beleive. I can only assume they now understand the situation...