World Cup qualifying group C

[ArdeeBhoy]

simple randomness should deliver at least one good home or away win per decade.

We need some statistician to the thread to prove how we are disproving this theory. All things being equal normally, we should hope to beat Sweden and lose to Austria.
But be surprised (and disappointed) if that happens, even if it would give us an extra point. As we'd all have 17, but we'd have the worst goal difference probably.

[DeLorean]

hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....

I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.

The start of September is probably too early to drop somebody for not getting regular football. There'll only be two or three PL games played at that stage.

[peadar1987]

hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....

I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.

I'd agree with DeLorean. Sparky will probably drop Whelan at the start of next season, especially if he can keep Nzonzi. His early hints were that Nzonzi and Adam would be his preferred central midfield partnership, but I can't see Trap dropping Whelan after just a couple of games of next season. It does give hope for the future though. We have better players than Glenn, or at least, players who are better on a consistent basis. Whelan often looks alright in the Stoke team, but he's surrounded by muscular giants, who like the ball lumped to them, which I think suits his style of play better than having someone small who prefers the ball accurately in to feet.

[paul_oshea]

The end of this piece would depress ye after all we can take from these few games - play hoolahan, with 2 fast wingers.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/trapattoni-takes-the-positives-ahead-of-vital-september-clashes-29341366.html

[Stuttgart88]

I wonder has Stephen Quinn leapt up the standings? Trap has thrown the likes of Sammon, Sledge and Best in at the deep end in the past.

Can Quinn play wide left?

I know Trap is set in his ways, but it wouldn't surprise me if he left Coleman wide right with McShane or Kelly behind him. I'd take that over Cox or Keogh wide right any day of the week.

I wouldn't rule out the following though I would categorically prefer Hoolahan and McCarthy. McClean as an impact sub. I think Trap prefers McShane to Kelly.

-------Forde------
Kelly (McShane)-O'Shea-Sledge-Wilson
Coleman-Whelan-McCarthy-Quinn
-----Keane--Long----

[CraftyToePoke]

-------Forde------
Kelly (McShane)-O'Shea-Sledge-Wilson
Coleman-Whelan-McCarthy-Quinn
-----Keane--Long----

When are you thinking this for Stutts? What I mean is, if Dunne gets himself sorted for the coming season out he will dislodge SSL surely ?

[BonnieShels]

What does Whelan not have to do to get dropped?

[tricky_colour]

With so many matches to go the odds of an unlikely result are pretty high.

[geysir]

With so many matches to go the odds of an unlikely result are pretty high.
Hmmmm,
tempting isn't it?

[paul_oshea]

With so many matches to go the odds of an unlikely result are pretty high.

Yep it does alright, we are due an away with sometime soon according to all the experts on here. Germany are in trouble!

[Yard of Pace]

I have been impressed with Austria. .


I wasn't impressed with Austria at all really in Lansdowne. We gifted them an opener and then sat back and allowed them to play in the second half, and if we'd made a positive sub I think we'd have pushed on and scored a third and we'd all be here saying how close we are to being home and hosed. Decent side but a couple of injuries or suspensions and they'd be even more ordinary. I actually am happy with our strength in depth these days in most positions.

Austria stunk the place out at their Euros a few years ago so I hope there's no idea of a "Fortress Ernst Happoel" (or whatever the stadium is called) and we can go there and do a job on them.

[Stuttgart88]

Crafty, I'm assuming Dunne isn't match fit. If he gets a club and plays, then yes. I suppose I was looking for comment on the other selections, especially Coleman and Quinn.

Tricky, aren't the odds of an unlikely result always high?

[CraftyToePoke]

Austria stunk the place out at their Euros

We enjoy a common bond with them so. :)

[CraftyToePoke]

I suppose I was looking for comment on the other selections, especially Coleman and Quinn

Well, Id like Coleman there if we had a a bit more quality available behind him. I didn't think Quinn shone like some seem to have but you are correct in saying he will do no worse than Championship centre forwards we have been deploying out there.

How about 5-3-2 with Coleman & McClean full of running with their young L.O.I. legs, Josh & SSL either side of Dunne with McCarthy/Hoolalan/? feeding Long & Keane.

Would you hand over a few bob to watch that side? And who would you put in the ?

[Charlie Darwin]

I'd have my doubts about how many of our players would be tactically aware enough to play a 532 at a high level.

[CraftyToePoke]

I'd have my doubts about how many of our players would be tactically aware enough to play a 532 at a high level.

I'd have more doubts about our manager being willing to crawl over hot coals back to Italy rather than try it.

But, do you really think guys who have made it a such a good level of the game would find this way beyond them? And, even if it wasn't a regular thing, and I'm not suggesting it should be, just an option, would you deem it worth 45 in a friendly for a look? I think it would utilize the best of Coleman / McLean. My doubts would be the three boyos at the back.

[Charlie Darwin]

I don't think they'd find it way beyond them but it would certainly put them outside of their comfort zone and it would take plenty of practice to get right, and I'm not sure we have the time to invest in it. It's different for the Italians where it is a common formation or even British sides of the past 25 years. If you're looking at getting the best out of the players at your disposal, I think you have to look at formations that play to their strengths.

[CraftyToePoke]

I don't think they'd find it way beyond them but it would certainly put them outside of their comfort zone and it would take plenty of practice to get right, and I'm not sure we have the time to invest in it. It's different for the Italians where it is a common formation or even British sides of the past 25 years. If you're looking at getting the best out of the players at your disposal, I think you have to look at formations that play to their strengths.

OK, a fair point. Do you think 442 is the one best suited to those present strengths?

[Charlie Darwin]

Some variation of it, yeah. The current formation where Robbie plays between the lines as an auxilary midfielder is probably the best we can do at the moment, but it won't work properly unless we bring through midfielders who can attack, defend and hold possession. I think it's the philosophy rather than the formation that's holding us back. I think we also need to look at the idea of providing a backup for Keane with somebody can play in that Keane role, probably Hoolahan, possibly Cox. Our strikers outside of Keane aren't good enough for us to play a proper 451/433.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Think Long can play up top on his own.

Has the guile now, just not Robbie's finishing.

[Charlie Darwin]

Unfortunately a striker who can't finish is of limited use, especially when you don't have many goals from midfield.

[Stuttgart88]

Might midfielders be more likely to score if they can get into advanced positions more regularly though? Our 442 puts them on the back foot more often than not.

I also don't wholly agree that you need a "line leader" up top. Jon Dahl Tomassen played that role to great effect for Denmark, albeit flanked by Rommedahl and Lovenkrands, a type of player we don't have.

I see Charlie's point but I think I posted a while back some stats over the last few campaigns showing that our strikers have scored very few goals from open play, the point being that we're hardly reliant on our forwards. I think we have more to gain than to lose by going 451 - certainly in some situations - and it's a shame we haven't tried it when we've had a chance to experiment.

[CraftyToePoke]

Think Long can play up top on his own.

Has the guile now, just not Robbie's finishing.


27 next birthday I think. Leaves an increasingly highlighted number of goal chances after him, although recent improvement too as you say.

[shakermaker1982]

If Brady starts off well with Hull in the PL early on then hopefully he will be back in contention for a place on the wing.

I like Coleman on the wing, just a shame the only players who can play at FB to allow the change is Kelly & McShane. Maybe O'Shea could go back to RB if Dunne gets fit.

The Villa youngsters coming through the ranks will also get a bit of game time next season, obviously too early to have an impact in the WC qualifiers but getting called up for squads in 2014 not out of the question.

[tricky_colour]

Crafty, I'm assuming Dunne isn't match fit. If he gets a club and plays, then yes. I suppose I was looking for comment on the other selections, especially Coleman and Quinn.

Tricky, aren't the odds of an unlikely result always high?

Depend on how what method you are using to calculate the odds.

If you are using percentages 90% is high but if you use fraction odds 9-1 is high.

Therefore by making a sufficiently vague statement i can claim to be have been right whatever happens :)

[tricky_colour]

I'd have my doubts about how many of our players would be tactically aware enough to play a 532 at a high level.

Me too, we don't have 5 goalkeepers in the squad for starters.

[tricky_colour]

Might midfielders be more likely to score if they can get into advanced positions more regularly though? Our 442 puts them on the back foot more often than not.

I also don't wholly agree that you need a "line leader" up top. Jon Dahl Tomassen played that role to great effect for Denmark, albeit flanked by Rommedahl and Lovenkrands, a type of player we don't have.

I see Charlie's point but I think I posted a while back some stats over the last few campaigns showing that our strikers have scored very few goals from open play, the point being that we're hardly reliant on our forwards. I think we have more to gain than to lose by going 451 - certainly in some situations - and it's a shame we haven't tried it when we've had a chance to experiment.


I would have liked to have seen it tried against Spain although the chance of us passing it about like Spain seem rather remote to say the least.
Spain look like they have been practising it, just the sort of underhand thing the Spanish would do!!

I would have also liked to have seen Paddy Madden given a run out. Would any of our strikers have out scored him in League 1?
I doubt it.

[tricky_colour]

Anyhow Trap will seek to grind out results in the usual manner come what may.

[bennocelt]

The self loathers in the Irish media tend to overlook results like tonight's when they slag off our victories over Faroes and Armenia.

yes they played some amazing stuff the last time they were at the world cup....:rolleyes:

[ArdeeBhoy]

Heh, he has a point...

[DeLorean]

I'd have my doubts about how many of our players would be tactically aware enough to play a 532 at a high level.

Strange you say that as I always considered the wing back formation as a basic, stop the rot type of formula. Not many teams that I know of used it for very long. Martin O'Neill introduced it at Celtic after they had lost the league by twenty points or so to Rangers the season before. I always assumed it was to make them more solid than anything else, although with wide players like Agathe, Thompson, Petta, etc. it made them more potent as an attacking threat as well. Eventually though, they ended up changing to a more conventional 4-4-2 as I don't think 5-3-2 is really a long term solution. Teams seem to be able to figure it out after a while and there's less room for developing various tactics playing that system, as it's not very flexible. I think Liverpool did something similar years ago also under Roy Evans, around the time Phil Babb would have been playing for them.

[Stuttgart88]

Didn't Prandelli use it a few times at the Euros? Great to see a manager just switching from one to the other and the players adapting easily.

I like it a lot, but wouldn't go as far as recommending it for Ireland now, although I did about 8 years ago.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Don't think Trap would engage in such innovation or flexibility at this stage of his life, let alone managerial career...

If we got to the World Cup, it would really be a miracle. On the basis of the likes of McShane, Ward, Whelan & Sammon being anywhere near the team...

And on an unrelated point, Joey O'Brien, why not in the squad at least?

[paul_oshea]

I think its BS to say we don't have the players or the mentality to play 4-5-1. I think with the players we have the best setup would be 4-5-1. When Trap started he said it was the little details why we were conceding silly goals from set-pieces and open play. Originally for the first year or 2 we were compact and conceded little. That is no longer the case, probably as much down to players as opposed to his system at the time, as we concede a lot more now than then, still employing the same system. SO Traps point is no longer valid, the reasoning for playing the way we do doesn't hold water because we have conceded far too many goals over the last couple of years.

With Hoolahan, Mcgeady, Mclean/long, Keane, Mccarthy and one of Quinn/Hendrick/Whelan we are certainly capable of playing that system, in fact it probably is our best possible goal-scoring formation. Hoolahan loves to put the ball in behind the full back for a fast winger to run on to, as was shown against the Faroes and Georgia. McClean and McGeady or coleman would have the beating of most defenders for pace, certainly the teams we need to beat i.e. Sweden and Austria(bar alaba), the more chances we create the more we score, and the more we score the more chances we would put away as the players would start connecting and reading eachothers play better.

We are always conceding late goals, why not go for the killer at the start, over-run them with a playmaker like hoolahan splitting the defence open and fast wingers/full backs to run onto. Keane has shown that with good service into the box he is still a poacher. I think we are crying out for a 4-5-1/4-3-3.

We are no longer playing to our strengths employing 2 in midfield in a strict 4-4-2, as we are conceding too much anyway, we are actually being stifled by the current rigidity.

[Stuttgart88]

His point has gone over my head completely.

I was simply saying that we get slagged off by the press for getting the same or better results against the Faroes and Armenia than Sweden, Germany and Denmark did. What on earth is wrong with that, and what has the World Cup got to do with anything?

[paul_oshea]

He is saying they have never made it to the world cup and therefore they aren't much good.

[DeLorean]

If we got to the World Cup, it would really be a miracle. On the basis of the likes of McShane, Ward, Whelan & Sammon being anywhere near the team.

Well we qualified for the Euros with two of those guys actually on the team so I don't think it would constitute a 'miracle'.

[Stuttgart88]

He is saying they have never made it to the world cup and therefore they aren't much good.Which is a pretty dumb point and certainly not a logical response to my point, and it puzzles me how AB could think it was worth thanking.

For what it's worth, the 3 teams I cited (Sweden, Denmark and Germany) all played good stuff at the last Euros. We should be pretty envious of Sweden and Denmark's record over the last decade.

[Stuttgart88]

Regardless of who is in the team or near it*, we're short-odds against qualifying. 1/5 is the current betting and I'd say that's about right, maybe even generous.

We have to get better results against teams like Sweden and Austria than we have got in a decade. We then need not to be 9th best second seed. That's probably 1/3 or 1/4.

Then we'll have to beat another strong team over two legs to qualify. It'd be generous to suggest that that's even evens - more likely 7/4 or 2/1 area. I don't think there'll be an Estonia to get this time around.

I wouldn't say it's a miracle, but it's a huge ask - and even if we played our best XI and managed to convincingly close out a winning situation.

* AB, adding Ward in is a red herring. I'm not sure McShane is much worse than anyone Sweden have in defence and I think Sammon is only a sub if everyone is fit, if the last few games have shown anything. Joey O'Brien could be in the squad but it's relatively marginal and he wouldn't start. We nearly all agree on Whelan.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Well we qualified for the Euros with two of those guys actually on the team so I don't think it would constitute a 'miracle'.Aye, but in spite of, not because of.

And now we're carrying even more 'dead wood'. That's the point.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Regardless of who is in the team or near it*, we're short-odds against qualifying. 1/5 is the current betting and I'd say that's about right, maybe even generous.

We have to get better results against teams like Sweden and Austria than we have got in a decade. We then need not to be 9th best second seed. That's probably 1/3 or 1/4.

Then we'll have to beat another strong team over two legs to qualify. It'd be generous to suggest that that's even evens - more likely 7/4 or 2/1 area. I don't think there'll be an Estonia to get this time around.

I wouldn't say it's a miracle, but it's a huge ask - and even if we played our best XI and managed to convincingly close out a winning situation.

* AB, adding Ward in is a red herring. I'm not sure McShane is much worse than anyone Sweden have in defence and I think Sammon is only a sub if everyone is fit, if the last few games have shown anything. Joey O'Brien could be in the squad but it's relatively marginal and he wouldn't start. We nearly all agree on Whelan.
Not a red herring as played in this campaign. Which is why I mentioned him.

And you've given me the longest ever definition there of the word 'miracle' !
;)

[Stuttgart88]

I think the team / squad has been refreshed by and large and if anything its potential to deliver (conservative approach and selections notwithstanding) is cause for optimism. The conservative approach and selection does negate that though!

I think both our full backs are markedly better than in the last campaign, and Forde is playing better than Given did in his last two years. A promising central midfield is looking to break out of the Trap selection time warp, Keane and Long are playing very well, Brady is emerging as an exciting talent, and so on. We also have the wild card of Pilkington's possible introduction.

[Stuttgart88]

Ward is a long way from the team now though. He as good as earned us two points in Kazakhstan too!

Your "miracle" is my "everything still to play for" though. Long odds or not, each next game in the sequence is winnable. Put it this way, we're not much further behind in the probability stakes than our rivals.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Maybe, but am regarding from our perspective and the proof I've seen in other qualifiers and friendlies. And to a lesser extent, other qualifying campaigns.

And you know as well as I do, a bit like our competition, there's no way every game is 'winnable'.

[Stuttgart88]

You said it'd be a miracle on the basis of McShane et al being near the team.

I'm saying it's odds against anyway and for more concrete reasons, but stuff it, it's exciting and it'd be utterly defeatist to take the view that only a miracle can see us qualify. Take each step as it comes and if we get a top 8 second place, brilliant. That's as good as we can have hoped for at the start of the campaign. Then we deal with a play-off.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Except it doesn't really matter what any of us think. Nor does it being defeatist. Any deviation will be a pleasant surprise, hopefully.

It will be nerve-wracking (forget the quality) but that's where the 'fun' begins and ends.
Still say we'll come 3rd. And we should blame Trapp.

[BonnieShels]

I think its BS to say we don't have the players or the mentality to play 4-5-1. I think with the players we have the best setup would be 4-5-1. When Trap started he said it was the little details why we were conceding silly goals from set-pieces and open play. Originally for the first year or 2 we were compact and conceded little. That is no longer the case, probably as much down to players as opposed to his system at the time, as we concede a lot more now than then, still employing the same system. SO Traps point is no longer valid, the reasoning for playing the way we do doesn't hold water because we have conceded far too many goals over the last couple of years.

With Hoolahan, Mcgeady, Mclean/long, Keane, Mccarthy and one of Quinn/Hendrick/Whelan we are certainly capable of playing that system, in fact it probably is our best possible goal-scoring formation. Hoolahan loves to put the ball in behind the full back for a fast winger to run on to, as was shown against the Faroes and Georgia. McClean and McGeady or coleman would have the beating of most defenders for pace, certainly the teams we need to beat i.e. Sweden and Austria(bar alaba), the more chances we create the more we score, and the more we score the more chances we would put away as the players would start connecting and reading eachothers play better.

We are always conceding late goals, why not go for the killer at the start, over-run them with a playmaker like hoolahan splitting the defence open and fast wingers/full backs to run onto. Keane has shown that with good service into the box he is still a poacher. I think we are crying out for a 4-5-1/4-3-3.

We are no longer playing to our strengths employing 2 in midfield in a strict 4-4-2, as we are conceding too much anyway, we are actually being stifled by the current rigidity.

I've been crying out about 4-5-1 for years. We have those players. It's easily the best formation for what we have at our disposal.

We get over-run in midfield so the logical approach would be to put another man in there!!!

[peadar1987]

I'm always skeptical about the size of our forwards. If Walters and Keane were involved in a terrible car crash that somehow fused them into one player who could hold up the ball, win headers and find the back of the net, it would be great, but I don't think any of our current squad are up to the job. And our midfielders don't have the ability to play the sort of fluid game that sees them popping up everywhere in dangerous positions, meaning we still do need a traditional forward, and feed them using our width. It was like when people were crying our for us to play a passing game against Spain, which I thought was just silly. We were never in a million years going to out-pass the Spanish, we needed to try and outfight or outmuscle them.

My opinion anyway. 4-4-2, or 4-4-1-1, with Robbie dropping deep to give an extra passing option to the midfielders, with Walters or Long staying high to still give the option of the long ball.

All players being available, I'd go for something along the lines of:

Forde
Sledge - Dunne - O'Shea - Wilson
Coleman - Hoolahan - Gibson - McGeady
Keane
Walters

[jbyrne]

Still say we'll come 3rd. And we should blame Trapp.

and if we come 2nd will you praise trap?

[ArdeeBhoy]

No. Not this time.