World Cup qualifying group C

[DannyInvincible]

Armenia 1-0 up away to Denmark after a minute of play. Would be handy for another potential group runner-up to drop points.

[pineapple stu]

If Denmark lose that, they're not really potential group runners-up (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_G roup_B) (though they've still to play Malta twice)

[DannyInvincible]

The Sweden-Faroes stream switched over to footage of Norway-Macedonia, for some reason. :/

Here's a new one: http://www.coolsport.tv/stream11.html

[DannyInvincible]

Sweden down to ten men after Granqvist is given a straight red. Eleven minutes left.

[DannyInvincible]

Bah! Penalty to Sweden, and scored by Ibrahimović to make it 2-0.

[Charlie Darwin]

2-0, Ibra.

[DannyInvincible]

Final whistle goes; ends up 2-0 to ten-man Sweden. All on eleven points now then.

[geysir]

Direct comparison proof that Robbie is a better quality goal poacher than Zlatan.

[Stuttgart88]

Elsewhere I see Denmark are 3 down at home to Armenia. The progress of teams like Armenia and Bosnia is quite something. If we got that result I'd say it'd have to count as our best away win ever.

[Sullivinho]

That's some turnaround performance from the Armenians. They were beaten at home by Malta on friday!

[geysir]

4 nil to Armenia. They've had a poor campaign until this crazy night in Copenhagen.

[Charlie Darwin]

Armenia seem to love hammering in 4 against higher-ranked sides. This campaign has been puzzling as they seemed on a real upward slope, at least until they played in Dublin.

[Stuttgart88]

The self loathers in the Irish media tend to overlook results like tonight's when they slag off our victories over Faroes and Armenia.

[Charlie Darwin]

The self loathers in the Irish media tend to overlook results like tonight's when they slag off our victories over Faroes and Armenia.
Perhaps but I think there are often valid points still to be made.

We beat Armenia because we were more streetwise and our star players are better than theirs, but the background plot to all that was their U21s had hammered our U21s home and away a few months earlier and many of those players had made the step up to full international level, whereas we were becoming increasingy reliant on aging professionals. There were real doubts before those games whether our underage players had the ability to make the step up when even the likes of Coleman (who played in those hammerings) wasn't making the breakthrough. Luckily, the picture seems to have changed since Givens et al were given the heave-ho and our promising talents look a lot better equipped to become full internationals like the Armenians.

[Metrostars]

Germany 16 pts
Austria, Sweden, Ireland 11 pts

Remaining Games:
Sep 6:
IRL v SWE
GER v AUS

Sep 10:
KAZ v SWE
AUS v IRL
FAR v GER

Oct 11:
SWE v AUS
GER v IRL

Oct 15:
FAR v AUS
IRL v KAZ
SWE v GER


Any predictions? Can't see Germany dropping points against Austria.

[Yard of Pace]

Germany 16 pts
Austria, Sweden, Ireland 11 pts

Remaining Games:
Sep 6:
IRL v SWE
GER v AUS

Sep 10:
KAZ v SWE
AUS v IRL
FAR v GER

Oct 11:
SWE v AUS
GER v IRL

Oct 15:
FAR v AUS
IRL v KAZ
SWE v GER

I can hardly believe I'm typing this after the emotions I felt when Alaba scored but....it's possible. Very possible.

[Metrostars]

All 3 teams have to play Germany, all 3 have to play each other and all 3 could drop points against a minnow. Impossible to tell how this is going to go.

[Yard of Pace]

Isn't poster IFK in Sweden? Is their side in a bit of bother? Perhaps he could tell us? If we beat them and they dropped points to the Kazahks (very possible) it'd be absolutely marvelous.

[back of the net]

pity the ref missed/chose not to see this
http://balls.ie/football/zlatan-hits-keeper-with-no-look-pass/?fb_source=pubv1

[geysir]

The great Zlatan takes a dive to win a penalty against the Faroes.

[Charlie Darwin]

So what we've learned from today is that Sweden are no more likely than us to grind a small team into submission. This knowledge doesn't help us that much considering we need to win against - if they were more open and attacking like Austria, we'd probably have a better chance of beating them.

[Stuttgart88]

That could have been the yellow we'd like Zlatan to have got.

Stuff it anyway, it's been years since we had a right go at a relative peer in a critical home game. Bring it on. Lets just hope we don't exclusively go out to play hoofball or retreat into our shells if we go ahead. Bring back Stan, Mick Byrne and Liam Miller for this one.

[Charlie Darwin]

I still vividly remember Liam Miller's strike at Lansdowne. A really comprehensive victory that allowed us all, briefly, to dream we were finally going somewhere as a team. The old Stan bait-and-switch, classic.

[da bishop]

really poor result for eamon,richard,george and ronnie,but especially eamon and richard,i mean how are they going to explain a miserly swede 2nil defeat of plumbers,bakers and candlestick makers...sorry fishermen,hold i take it back as with their 3nil defeat to germany the faroes had a ....stronger....team out tonight.

[ifk101]

Isn't poster IFK in Sweden? Is their side in a bit of bother? Perhaps he could tell us? If we beat them and they dropped points to the Kazahks (very possible) it'd be absolutely marvelous.

He is indeed.

Yes and no. They conceded two soft goals from a defensive point of view against Austria so they decided to break up their centre-half partnership of Olsson (West Brom) and Granqvist (Genoa) for the Faroes game. The general feeling is they don't work well together as a partnership but with Granqvist's sending off last night the partnership will be broken up for our game anyways.

They are certainly there for the taking. Their left flank is particularly suspect, Austria got a lot of joy from attacking down Sweden's left flank. There LB options aren't great and their LM, Kacaniklic who played in the Championship last season, is quite raw around the edges. Just on the subject of Kacaniklic, he had a great chance to score against the Faroes but he chickened out of the tackle with their keeper, good to see from an Irish perspective.

One of the Faroes' players said prior to last night's game that Sweden are the weakest of the teams they have played in the group so far. I suppose you can read that by looking at their results as, disregarding the 4-4 result away to Germany, they have laboured to 3 victories against the Faroes and Kazakhstan, didn't really trouble us at all and were well beaten in Austria.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Hmm, sounds like a Faroese version of 'mind games'...

[tetsujin1979]

Permutations and combinations and whatnot: http://irish-abroad.appspot.com/Blog

[tricky_colour]

Permutations and combinations and whatnot: http://irish-abroad.appspot.com/Blog

It looks as though we need a win win or a win draw. Sweden being first game Austria second.

There are a number of other sequences which see us on level points with another(s) team but I think our goal difference
will always put us out in that situation as Austria are miles ahead of us on that and the only sequence which sees us level on points
with Sweden requires us losing to Sweden, which make our goal difference 2 worse than it is now.

However the Germany game is not taken into account o in the unlikely event we get something there are a couple more ways to get through.
Kazakhstan and the Faroes could also upset the apple cart, but then again it might be us who fall out!!

[ArdeeBhoy]

My prediction is third. With two draws, a defeat and a win to come.

That first draw v.Austria and a lack of goals in general (besides Robbie's efforts) will come back to haunt us.
Yes, we have limited players and work hard, but our biggest handicap is our manager and his 'tactics' when it comes to home games.

Incidentally, in the unlikely event of beating Sweden and losing in Austria, besides the extra point, that would be a fatal blow, surely?

And whoever gets second, will be undoubtedly drawn v. a 'seeded' team like those in London or P*ris anyway and will go crashing out as FIFA once again attempt to contrive 'big' names getting to the Finals.

[DeLorean]

the only sequence which sees us level on points with Sweden requires us losing to Sweden, which make our goal difference 2 worse than it is now.

There are a number of other sequences which could see us level with Sweden. We could beat them, lose to Austria and Sweden beat Austria. That would also see us level without taking the other games into consideration. The three games between IRE/SWE/AUS could all be draws also.


Incidentally, in the unlikely event of beating Sweden and losing in Austria, besides the extra point, that would be a fatal blow, surely?

I wouldn't consider this unlikely at all but, yeah, it probably would be fatal. We would need to get something in Cologne and hope Sweden beat Austria and both lose to Germany (assuming all victories v Faroes and Kazaks).

[Closed Account 2]

My prediction is third. With two draws, a defeat and a win to come.

Incidentally, in the unlikely event of beating Sweden and losing in Austria, besides the extra point, that would be a fatal blow, surely?

And whoever gets second, will be undoubtedly drawn v. a 'seeded' team like those in London or P*ris anyway and will go crashing out as FIFA once again attempt to contrive 'big' names getting to the Finals.

Yeah if we lose in Austria then it's probably all over. Assuming all 3 (us, Swedes and Austrian) lose to Germany and all 3 beat the minnows* (Sweden go to Kazakhstan, Austria go to Faeroes and we have Kazakhs at home) if we win at home to Sweden and lose in Austria then all will depend on the Sweden vs Austria game. If it's a draw or an Austrian win in Stockholm we will most likely be behind the Austrians either on goal difference or points. If Sweden win that game I think all teams could be on 17 points and we would suffer due to our goal difference (we would need to make up a lot of goals to catch Austria, particularly if we lose in Vienna as goals in that match have a double effect (detracting from our GD but adding to the Austrian GD). Draws in all the games between the three will also probably see us all level on points and again missing out on goal difference.

*In terms of minnows the only potential for dropped points I can see is Kazakhstan drawing with Sweden in Astana. The Swedes will have played us in Dublin 4 days earlier and then will have one of the longest possible flights in European football. Whereas Kazakhstan will have played at home to the Faeroese 4 days earlier. But then there is also the chance Sweden will pick up points at home to (an already qualified) Germany on the last match day.

[Stuttgart88]

If there is a winner in the Sweden vs Austria game in October it's odds-on that we will need to have beaten that team in September.

It's good to know the permutations but on the (far from certain) assumption we all lose to Germany and win our remaining Kaz or Faroes games, it's a straight shoot-out between the 3 of us all starting from scratch, bar our worse goal difference.

But because Sweden versus Austria is the most important game outside of our control and not until October we'll really need to be assertive and go for 6 points, but probably settle for 4.

[Stuttgart88]

Is there a chance our trip to Germany will be a dead rubber for Germany?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Think we'll draw with the Swedes and Austria though.

And unless Zlatan shows up, the Swedes are going to struggle to beat anyone, bar the 'minnows'.
More likely Austria will come second unless we suddenly win one one of our 'mini-league'(Austria, Ireland, Sweden) by 2 clear goals (yeah, right) as they could also sneak a win v.us in Vienna and probably just capable of a point in a return v.the Swedes.
If they stay undefeated in the 'min-league', they'll probably just deserve second?

And there may be one remaining group game, Deutschland don't win IMO.

[geysir]

Is there a chance our trip to Germany will be a dead rubber for Germany?

Dead rubber game for Germany odds are probably 1-100

[swinfordfc]

We need to win both games in September ..... end of

[paul_oshea]

Permutations and combinations and whatnot: http://irish-abroad.appspot.com/Blog

Great stuff tets, highlighting is a great idea also as it gives us the grouped outcomes by chances of qualifying based on who we beat rather than relying on other results. So basically if we beat sweden there are 7 out of 9 permutations where we qualify. I hope the management realise this.

Actually on second thoughts its 7 chances if we beat sweden, or 7 chances if we beat austria drawing it the other way. Good reading though well done!

Actually the only permutations we can be certain in are if we beat both, goal difference way behind austria.

Tets based on the 6 or 8 goal differnce between us and austria would it not be better to remove the green on those ones? Also you would assume that we all draw with germany?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Permutations and combinations and whatnot: http://irish-abroad.appspot.com/Blog

Thanks, though believe the permutations were already on this MB...

[Closed Account 2]

Is there a chance our trip to Germany will be a dead rubber for Germany?

Yeah, there is a decent chance. I'm pretty sure if they beat Austria (h) and the Faeroes (a) in the September double header they will have 22 points, and will almost certainly be home and dry. If they win both of those matches the only way one of "the three" (us, Sweden, Austria) could catch Germany then would be to win every game. For instance we would have to have already beaten Sweden (h) and Austria (a) to be in a position to catch Germany (and even then they would still finish 2nd) if we've won those two games we should come second ahead of Sweden, even if the Swedes beat Austria and Germany and we lose in Köln. If Sweden beat us and then win in Kazakhstan then they could still catch Germany at the time of our Köln match, but if that happens we'll have blown it anyway.

[Stuttgart88]

Tets, any chance that can be posted here? I can't access that site at work (social media blah blah blah).

Or email it to me?

[shakermaker1982]

It's the Swedish home game that worries me the most. The players seem to wilt when playing at home & this has been the case for many a year. Need the LR roar to get these players over the line in September. No harm in making the players watch the Holland home game a few times before September to show how an Irish team can play like a team possessed.

[geysir]

Yeah if we lose in Austria then it's probably all over. Assuming all 3 (us, Swedes and Austrian) lose to Germany and all 3 beat the minnows* (Sweden go to Kazakhstan, Austria go to Faeroes and we have Kazakhs at home) if we win at home to Sweden and lose in Austria then all will depend on the Sweden vs Austria game. If it's a draw or an Austrian win in Stockholm we will most likely be behind the Austrians either on goal difference or points. If Sweden win that game I think all teams could be on 17 points and we would suffer due to our goal difference (we would need to make up a lot of goals to catch Austria, particularly if we lose in Vienna as goals in that match have a double effect (detracting from our GD but adding to the Austrian GD). Draws in all the games between the three will also probably see us all level on points and again missing out on goal difference.

*In terms of minnows the only potential for dropped points I can see is Kazakhstan drawing with Sweden in Astana. The Swedes will have played us in Dublin 4 days earlier and then will have one of the longest possible flights in European football. Whereas Kazakhstan will have played at home to the Faeroese 4 days earlier. But then there is also the chance Sweden will pick up points at home to (an already qualified) Germany on the last match day.
It's a good opportunity for them, probably similar to the last qualifiers when they had to beat an already qualified Netherlands, who had won all their pervious games. The bookies think so and have Sweden as clear favourites to finish 2nd
But as IFK pointed out, there's a serious amount of dysfunction in the Swedish set up. They might come good, but as it stands now, looking at the upcoming games, I'd have Austria as favourites.
Austria have their tails up but I think we have a chance of a draw in Austria,
they will be confident of beating us and may well neglect to fully appreciate that we're tough nut to crack away from home.

[DeLorean]

Is there a chance our trip to Germany will be a dead rubber for Germany?

If Germany beat Austria and the Faroes they will be on 22 points with 2 games remaining. Basically either ourselves, Sweden or Austria will have to secure two wins in our next two games to prevent it being a dead rubber for the Germans. That would leave one of the three on 17 points with two games remaining. Anything less and the maximum amount of points is reduced to 15, seven points behind Germany with two games left.

[tetsujin1979]

Great stuff tets, highlighting is a great idea also as it gives us the grouped outcomes by chances of qualifying based on who we beat rather than relying on other results. So basically if we beat sweden there are 7 out of 9 permutations where we qualify. I hope the management realise this.Not exactly, we could beat Sweden, and then lose to Austria, who then lose to Sweden. That leaves us all on 17 points, I just put us on top in hope more than anything else


Actually on second thoughts its 7 chances if we beat sweden, or 7 chances if we beat austria drawing it the other way. Good reading though well done!

Actually the only permutations we can be certain in are if we beat both, goal difference way behind austria.

Tets based on the 6 or 8 goal differnce between us and austria would it not be better to remove the green on those ones?
Might change it to yellow to highlight goal difference comes into play?


Also you would assume that we all draw with germany?
no, I'd assume we're all going to lose to Germany, which isn't that unreasonable.


Tets, any chance that can be posted here? I can't access that site at work (social media blah blah blah).

Or email it to me?
it's a table, so I don't think I can post it here. PM me an email address and I'll send it on

[DeLorean]

It would probably be no harm for Germany to give the Austrians a beat of a thumping. I've given up on goal difference completely with regards Austria and Sweden, but Austria are on a bit of a high and it would be good if their confidence took a bit of a hammering before we play them a few days later.

I don't agree with Swinford at all that we have to win both games, but I do feel it's vital that we beat Sweden and Germany beat Austria.

[Bungle]

The Germans will never give less than 100% for every game, even if they have qualified. They might rest the likes of Lahm and Schweinsteiger to test younger or less experienced players, but the new players coming in will want to put down a marker. I would agree that a draw is possible though, even if I would be more likely to veer towards a 2-0 defeat.

I think Sweden are a mediocre team. However, they are a mediocre team that knows how to get to tournaments. On paper, I think we are certainly better than them. If we have Hoolahan and McCarthy in the centre, then we can and should beat them. However, I do worry that Trap will stick with the tried and trusted (Whelan) and this conservatism makes a draw very likely. I'm not saying that Wes is the next coming of Ronnie Whelan or Liam Brady, but he's a potential match winner. Another potential match winner is James McClean. I would have concerns that Cox will be played out wide. Don't get me wrong, Cox is a half decent striker, but a winger he isn't. I'd veer towards a 1-1 draw, with Ireland perhaps taking an early lead and then sitting back, rather than trying to kill the game off with a second. In short, it will be vintage Ireland, with the fans going away feeling that this was one that got away.

I have been impressed with Austria. They seem like a country that is really on the up and they could be very good by Euro 2016 or World Cup 2018. They will be dangerous in Vienna and Trap won't take any chances with them. For this reason, I predict a 0-0 draw. I think Trap will almost certainly sacrifice Hoolahan for this match or one striker. Green is likely to come in to the team. It will be heroic at times, but we'll be frustrated at things being out of our own hands.

Kazakhstan could be an interesting player in the rest of the group. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that they draw with the Swedes. It is also conceivable that with all the teams locked on equal points, we might need to knock in 5 or 6 (or 7 or 8!!) past them to get second. I can't see us beating them by more than 3 goals, so this would be a nightmare scenario.

[DeLorean]

If we have Hoolahan and McCarthy in the centre, then we can and should beat them. However, I do worry that Trap will stick with the tried and trusted (Whelan)

Save yourself the worry Bungle, just accept that it's going to happen unless Whelan picks up a knock.

[Stuttgart88]

Isn't it the same every campaign under Trap?

"If we can just beat Sweden / Austria / Bulgaria / Slovakia or whoever…"

The reality is that we have failed miserably to do so - and dating back to Kerr too. It's not just Trap's fault, although I think Trap has his own unique contribution topoor home results. We nearly snuck a late winner against Slovakia and an undeserved late winner against Bulgaria, but the away performances were more convincing and in fairness to Trap, our away form is probably our best ever.

AB is probably right to expect 2 points (max!), but simple randomness should deliver at least one good home or away win per decade.

[Closed Account 2]

It would probably be no harm for Germany to give the Austrians a beat of a thumping. I've given up on goal difference completely with regards Austria and Sweden, but Austria are on a bit of a high and it would be good if their confidence took a bit of a hammering before we play them a few days later.


We have got 8 goals to make up on them (+10 vs +2) which will be a tall order, we both have Germany anyway so in a sense the gd in those matches will probably be similar. There is the game in Vienna where goal difference will in effect count double, and they have Faeroes (a) on the last day whereas we have Kazakhstan (h), we might outscore them in those last day matches but I don't think we can make up 8 goals unless we have a big win in Vienna.

A flurry of yellows and / or reds in the Germany game would be ideal. The following will all be suspended for the Austria v Ireland match if they get booked in Germany v Austria match

M Janko
M Harnik
S Prödl
C Fuchs
P Hosiner
D Alaba
A Dragovic

(Kavlak and Baumgartlinger have already served a game ban for 2 yellows)

Any of Alaba, Harnik and Janko (all of whom are good players and have scored a few so far in these qualifiers) would be a huge bonus for us. In terms of Irish players, if the following get booked vs Sweden they will miss the Vienna match:

D O'Dea
A McGeady
P Green
S Coleman
J O'Shea
W Hoolahan

James McCarthy and Shane Long have already been suspended for getting 2 yellow cards, the next yellow card bans for them will be when they reach 4, so even if they get a yellow in the Sweden game they wont miss the Vienna match.

[paul_oshea]

Save yourself the worry Bungle, just accept that it's going to happen unless Whelan picks up a knock.

hmmmm. Doesn't peader1987 live near stoke, or support them anyway....

I reckon a new manager could drop whelan failry quick from Stoke first team. Would trap still play him? He is consistent in not picking the players not getting a game generally.