Referendum on the 8th amendment.

[The Fly]

I think it's fair to suggest it has to be a sizeable factor - would you not agree? After all, why would you travel to England for a medical procedure that is now available here?

I do agree, but how sizeable it is another thing entirely.

I think it represents a significant challenge to your original point (that what we're seeing is more abortion), and I think the onus is on you to back that point up more thoroughly, no?

Once your point is quantified, it becomes easier to discuss.

The flip of that assumes that's there's a predetermined proportion of all pregnancies that will end in abortion, and that what we're seeing now is just the increasing visibility of what was once invisible. In which case how will we know when full visibility has been reached?

On a separate note...the figures pertaining to the exceptions make for sober reading and just bolster my belief that abortion should always be, and should have been, allowed in those circumstances.

[pineapple stu]

I do agree, but how sizeable it is another thing entirely.

It is - but if you're going to make the claim that there is now "more abortion" than before, I think the onus is on you to prove your claim, and you haven't done so. Because you've left out a really key data set which even now you can't quantify.

A better comparison would be the % of pregnancies which ended in abortion before and after the referendum - because your caveat "there was a significant increase in the number of abortions carried out in Ireland" (my emphasis) is pretty irrelevant when something literally wasn't allowed before the referendum.

[The Fly]

It is - but if you're going to make the claim that there is now "more abortion" than before, I think the onus is on you to prove your claim, and you haven't done so. Because you've left out a really key data set which even now you can't quantify.

It's hard to be definitive as figures for Irish women seeking abortions in Britain (and elsewhere) prior to the introduction of the 2018 Act are based on estimates. Though in 2016 for example, 3,265 Irish women were recorded as having had abortions in Britain (as per Simon Harris' speech to the Dáil on the Amendment of the Constitution).

A better comparison would be the % of pregnancies which ended in abortion before and after the referendum - because your caveat "there was a significant increase in the number of abortions carried out in Ireland" (my emphasis) is pretty irrelevant when something literally wasn't allowed before the referendum.

It's not accurate to say that it's pretty irrelevant because that would fail to take into account how values and human behaviour are changed and influenced by the particular standards of the time (the zeitgeist in other words).

This applies to other issues like marriage and divorce rates for example, or the current and increasing debate around gender to use a more topical example.

[pineapple stu]

It's hard to be definitive as figures for Irish women seeking abortions in Britain (and elsewhere) prior to the introduction of the 2018 Act are based on estimates.

It may well be hard to be definitive. But your post was pretty definitive, even though this information was missing from it.

It's not accurate to say that it's pretty irrelevant

I think it's entirely accurate to say your comparison - which amounted to "significant increase in something happening here after it become no longer illegal" - is pretty irrelevant.

[The Fly]

Oops, I accidentally deleted my reply there...
(does anyone else have issues editing posts on a mobile phone?)

It may well be hard to be definitive. But your post was pretty definitive, even though this information was missing from it.

Fair point. The discussion has now been updated with the example provided.

I think it's entirely accurate to say your comparison - which amounted to "significant increase in something happening here after it become no longer illegal" - is pretty irrelevant.

And I'll just reiterate that it isn't for the reason provided.