TheCursed Value Bet Thread

[TheBoss]

In this Thread I will post up some bets in some sports that I see value in, the odds might not be too great but in terms of value I think they are, here is a selection for some football matches:

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SPORT - FOOTBALL


Sunday 20th January

Everton @ 5/4 v Wigan(Away)
Mallorca @ 6/5 v Levante(Away)


Monday 21st January

Ivory Coast @ 6/5 v Nigeria


Tuesday 22nd January

Cameroon @ 1/1 v Egypt


Wednesday 23rd January

Senegal @ 6/4 v Tunisia

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I will also post up from time to time the percentage of wins that I have in each sport and overall.

[sligoman]

Decided to put them all into an accumulator. Everton did the job but Mallorca only drawing at H/T. Hopefully they'll pick up!

EDIT: Fecking finished 2-2, thought I had it til the 89th min when Levante equalised:mad:

[deecay]

Great news :D

[TheBoss]

At least I was close with Mallorca, shows I can spot them :D

[lim abroad]

ivory coast are 13/10 now at paddy power

[TheBoss]

Another win for moi.

[TheBoss]

SPORT - FOOTBALL

Tuesday 22nd January

Vitesse @ 11/8 v Willem II(Away)
Tottenham @ 6/4 v Arsenal(Home)

[Risteard]

The Boss is a Predictions League master.
Follow him.

[sligoman]

Another win for moi.
The Boss is a Predictions League master.Two right and two wrong so far...you need Senegal to win tomorrow to prove yerself Boss;)

[TheBoss]

I was surprised by both my picks today, Cameroon and Vitesse to concede 4 both is strange for me, I was certain both would win.

So Far:

Tips: 6
Right: 3 - 50%

My target would be 75% - 80%

[anto1208]

You would want to get it together Boss :p

Hear is some for tonight from Paddy Power : Everton v chelsea

Lee Carsley to get booked in 90 mins 6/4
Tim cahill to get booked and score in 90 mins 16-1
Lesscott to score first 25-1
Lesscott to score with a header in 90 mins 20-1

[TheBoss]

In fairness to those bets, its more about Luck than spotting a good choice.

[anto1208]

In fairness to those bets, its more about Luck than spotting a good choice.

Are nt all bets !

Its all luck any one that claims to be an expert is deluding you and themselves. i've turned 20 euro into 1600 this season with Bets like the ones above as i know the most above Evertons form and playing patterns etc yet all that is still down to complete luck just like every bet.

Are you trying to say that you know what your going on about ? and are making good choices ?? coz thats what it sounds like .

They are very good choices if you look at them
Carsley : tough tackling midfielder who will be playing in a hyped up game and the tackles will be flying in very good chance he will get booked like he did in the first leg.

Cahill: allways late into tackles ankle tapper very high chance of him picking up a booking and very good chance of him scoring he has 9 goal this season

Lescott to score (defender with 7 goals this season and a point to proove after socring a own goal in the first leg).

[TheBoss]

They are playing Chelsea you know. They will not get much of the ball in the game.

[anto1208]

They are playing Chelsea you know. They will not get much of the ball in the game.

You dont need the ball to get booked. ;)

[TheBoss]

I understand your logic in those bets, but how many times do you think that they would win.

[anto1208]

Hopefully just the once

[TheBoss]

Tunisia only go 1-0 up, Not a great start for me.

[sligoman]

Lee Carsley to get booked in 90 mins 6/4Congratulations:ball:

[anto1208]

Congratulations:ball:

i got the price wrong it was 9/4 had 40 notes on it 130 back . :D

[TheBoss]

SPORT - FOOTBALL

Thursday 23rd January

Fiorentina @ 15/8 v Lazio(Away)
Villarreal @ 8/5 v Barcelona(Home)


SPORT - CRICKET

Friday 24th January

MS Dhoni Innings - Under 34.5 @ 5/6

[TheBoss]

I cant understand it, since I made the thread, my bets seem to be losing, but I will come back from this, just wait and see.

[drinkfeckarse]

I await your predictions from the English weekend games. At this early stage I see value in Cardiff (Ev) away to Hereford, Bristol City (8/11) at home to Blackpool, Rotherham 7/5 away to Chester.

Possibly Aberdeen 10/11 at home to Hearts and Dundee 8/13 at home to Queen of the South too but I'll wait until I can get a preview of the games before I decide.

[anto1208]

I await your predictions from the English weekend games. .


Wait for them then dont do them ;)

[ifk101]

Wait for them then dont do them ;)

Now, now, remarks like that are (somewhat) against the betting rules here. :D
It hasn't gone so well for him but there's no need to take the mick_ey.


But if possible, could you add a bit of reasoning to your bets TheBoss?

[TheBoss]

I await your predictions from the English weekend games. At this early stage I see value in Cardiff (Ev) away to Hereford, Bristol City (8/11) at home to Blackpool, Rotherham 7/5 away to Chester.

Possibly Aberdeen 10/11 at home to Hearts and Dundee 8/13 at home to Queen of the South too but I'll wait until I can get a preview of the games before I decide.

I agree Cardiff @ Evs is great price, Bristol City @ 8/11 is decent value, but 8/11 is just outside my range, I prefer 5/6 or 10/11 as max odds-on. I never like betting on League 2 games, they can be very unpredictable despite what the league table says.

Aberdeen looks a decent shout for a punt but after Hearts finally won last week after 2 months, they might get back to normal, A draw maybe likely. Dundee v QoS @ 8/13 again is just outside my range but Dundee should win.

EDIT: Just having a look at your choices in depth way, Rotherham do appear to be over valued, I have to add to my list :D

[anto1208]

Now, now, remarks like that are (somewhat) against the betting rules here. :D
It hasn't gone so well for him but there's no need to take the mick_ey.


But if possible, could you add a bit of reasoning to your bets TheBoss?

:D I'm only teasing a little after his remark about my bets being just lucky guesses ( even though ive put an extrodinary amount of research into them) and his are really good choices. I think its funny when my lucky guess comes off and the good choices dont !!!

But as i say its just a bit of messing.they arent ment as snide remarks.

[TheBoss]

I know you only messing anto, thats I am laughing when you write them :D

[TheBoss]

SPORT - CRICKET

Saturday 26th January

Australia - First Innings Total Under 545.5 @ 5/6 - Australia v India


SPORT - FOOTBALL

Saturday 26th January

Bristol Rovers @ 5/4 v Barnet(Away)
Rotherham @ 8/5 v Chester(Away)
Rennes @ 13/10 v Metz(Away)
Benfica@ 6/5 v Vitoria Guimaraes(Away)


Sunday 27th January

Cardiff @ 1/1 v Hereford(Away)
Napoli @ 11/8 v Cagliari(Away)
Atletico Madrid @ 6/4 v Mallorca(Away)
Racing Santander @ 6/5 v Zaragoza(Home)
Naval @ 11/10 v Amadora(Home)
Academica @ 6/4 v Uniao Leiria(Away)
Nacional @ 6/5 v Vitoria Setubal(Home)
Lyon @ 1/1 v St Etienne(Away)
Porto @ 6/4 v Sporting Lisbon(Away)

I would consider this bet.

Villareal @ 6/1 v Real Madrid(Away)

[swano]

Too many bets for my liking. There can't be that many "value" bets everyday. I much prefer waiting for something that I think is way over priced and then put more money on it. Premiership games are never priced wrong and there is rarely any value in them. They are priced by god knows how many different companies and there is very little variation in price between the firms. You also have to take into account that they are adding about 3% to every selection in premier league games and 4% in other leagues.

[anto1208]

You have to double or trebbile up most prem games to make any money. I normally will do 5 games with 5 or 10 euro on it.

Won a lot this weekend 270 in small bets i used the criket one above put a tenner on got back 18. had a 5 game prem put on a fiver got back 45. had 4 teams in spain 5 on back 68 . HAd a few more but all small bets / wins in total bet around 50 on 8 different bets got back the 270. So it was a good weekend

Only one that didnt come off was one of the Boss's ;)

[drinkfeckarse]

I did a 4 team roll up on Rotherham, Bristol City, Cardiff and Dundee but Dundee let me down. Funnily enough I thought if there was one to do it, it would be them but that's always the way isn't it...

[swano]

Doing accums is a bit of fun if yoy're only sticking a few quid down as you don't miss it and if you get a decent win it's great but you won't make money off them in the long run as you're multiplying the bookies advantage with every selection you add.

[Raheny Red]

Too many bets for my liking. There can't be that many "value" bets everyday. I much prefer waiting for something that I think is way over priced and then put more money on it.

Agreed, this thread is mainly about an individual's fancies for the day rather than value. Anyway fair play to the boss to giving this forum a kick up the arse and getting it back to life.

[anto1208]

By value i reckon he means bets that have good odds and a good chance of happening double your money kind of bets rather than retire if this comes off kinda bets.

Where the favourite is still 5/6 on istead of 1/6 .

I have used some but tend to stick to my own ones won 270 this weekend from about 40 on. only 130 euro more break the 2 grand win mark for the season !! not bad for starting in august with 20 euro :D

one 7 team accumalator won me 600
Lescott to score first has won me over 500 over the season
Scots to beat france won me over 100
The rest have been little ones 3 or 4 team accumalators 5 or 10 on winning 40 -80 .

Nice and slow is the key to making money and never chase a bet thinking if i bet 10 here ill make my money back , just let it go and bet again a different day.

[anto1208]

another win tonight roma arsenal sunderland and ivory coast 98 euro :D on a roll now up to 360 in the account now from the weekend / mid week games

[drinkfeckarse]

At this early stage Newcastle 5/6 at home to Middlesboro is good value. Darlington Evs away to Wrexham looks good too. Proper look tomorrow.

[TheBoss]

I have not seen any good bets during the week, so hopefully I can some spot some at the weekend. Although my tips have been failing me with many of them losing with 10-15 mins to go.

[drinkfeckarse]

MK Dons (10/11) away to Bury. Great value to get almost evens for the top team to be playing a team close to the bottom, even if they are out of form at the moment.

Darlington (Evs) away to Wrexham. Again, a top against bottom clash and Darlingtons away form is good.

Newcastle (5/6) at home to Middlesboro. I fancy King Kev to get the first win of his second reign.

7/1 for 3 teams that SHOULD win really.

[TheBoss]

Your right, should win but you can not trust Newcastle in that treble.

SPORT - FOOTBALL


Saturday 2nd February

Charlton @ 11/10 v Scunthorpe(Away)
Barnet @ 7/5 v Morecombe(Home)


Sunday 3rd February

Sevilla @ 6/5 v Recreativo(Away)
Getafe @ 1/1 v Espanyol(Home)

[drinkfeckarse]

Your right, should win but you can not trust Newcastle in that treble.



Aint that the truth. :D

[anto1208]

utd arsenal and chelsea all to win 6-1 on paddy power online anyway worth a tenner i think

[JC_GUFC]

Get on Lorient to beat Rennes in the French Cup today.

Lorient have 2 defeats in their last 13 (away at Lyon and last minute at Monaco) but Rennes have only won 1 of their last 15!!!

It's a derby match but at 11/8 with Stan James it looks a very good bet.

[TheBoss]

Get on Lorient to beat Rennes in the French Cup today.

Lorient have 2 defeats in their last 13 (away at Lyon and last minute at Monaco) but Rennes have only won 1 of their last 15!!!

It's a derby match but at 11/8 with Stan James it looks a very good bet.

A few reasons I would not back any team here, it is a cup game, you can not use league form alone to justify a cup game and also as you say, it is a derby. They can go either way, From what I have seen of both teams in the league, they both have been patching most of the time, I would say this would be a draw and head for Extra Time.

[sligoman]

utd arsenal and chelsea all to win 6-1 on paddy power online anyway worth a tenner i thinkI saw this on PP site and was foolish enough to fall for it. Also did a seperate bet, drinkfeckarse's recommendation on the previous page minus Newcastle:o.

[JC_GUFC]

A few reasons I would not back any team here, it is a cup game, you can not use league form alone to justify a cup game and also as you say, it is a derby. They can go either way, From what I have seen of both teams in the league, they both have been patching most of the time, I would say this would be a draw and head for Extra Time.

Nice call... :(

I actually really fancied Bastia to beat Auxerre today as it's a long trip to Corsica but I was expecting to get better than 13/8 so didn't back it.

[TheBoss]

My tips yet again fail me, how can Charlton lose to Scunthorpe, I am still surprised by it, Barnet was a little risky but very possible, disappointed.

[sligoman]

My tips yet again fail meThere's a shock:p. Anymore, whoever you give tips for, we should just avoid them;).

[TheBoss]

Why would I make a thread for poor tips I made to get you chaps a helping hand, cause the success I have had from before this thread was phenomenal, I think I maye have jinxed myself :D

[Raheny Red]

There's a shock:p. Anymore, whoever you give tips for, we should just avoid them;).

Back the opposite :D


I'm on the Villains tomorrow - they are a tasty price.