TheCursed Value Bet Thread

[TheBoss]

The form Mooney is on, I would not bet against it. I would assume that Cork will play a 4-5-1 leaving Mooney up there as the lone striker, so if Cork are to score, it will be Mooney.

[lofty9]

Derry tonight 6/4 vs Bohs is an excellent bet.

Fenlon has a shocking record at the Brandywell as manager. ;)

found this - this guy's knowledge ain't too bad. I see he tipped Pat's last night too.

http://www.betshoot.com/betting-preview-27027-Derry-City-Bohemians-Dublin

[Raheny Red]

as i said before 2/5 isn't a tip.

So at what price does a selection become a tip:confused:

[TheBoss]

A tip is generally a team that is not favorite and their odds are too big.

[bennocelt]

So at what price does a selection become a tip:confused:

A tip is value for money.
The point is will I get value for my money? Putting 50 quid to win 20 is too big of a risk. Sure you will win, and win a few times but what if you lose? Trust me, you only have to lose a few of those kind of bets to wipe out anything you would have won in the first few bets.
for example, backing rangers all season will not win you a bagful of money

[Raheny Red]

A tip is value for money.
The point is will I get value for my money? Putting 50 quid to win 20 is too big of a risk. Sure you will win, and win a few times but what if you lose? Trust me, you only have to lose a few of those kind of bets to wipe out anything you would have won in the first few bets.
for example, backing rangers all season will not win you a bagful of money

But just because a selection may be odds on doesn't mean it's not value.

[TheBoss]

If you bet in the 100s or 1000s that it maybe value.

[bennocelt]

But just because a selection may be odds on doesn't mean it's not value.


Most top class tipsters will always tell you never to back anything less than 4 or 5/1 (at least in horse racing anyway)

I remember I had won about 600 on a few football matches, was 100 each on 6 games, all about evens. I won 6/6, but if i had lost one or two it wouldn't have been a good day. So with my winnings + 200 (800) i lumped it on Rangers to beat Dunfermline away at rubbish odds (2/5 maybe!). Surely rangers would win against the bottom team. 1-1 was the score!!!! high risk :o:o

[Rovers fan]

Most top class tipsters will always tell you never to back anything less than 4 or 5/1 (at least in horse racing anyway)

I remember I had won about 600 on a few football matches, was 100 each on 6 games, all about evens. I won 6/6, but if i had lost one or two it wouldn't have been a good day. So with my winnings + 200 (800) i lumped it on Rangers to beat Dunfermline away at rubbish odds (2/5 maybe!). Surely rangers would win against the bottom team. 1-1 was the score!!!! high risk :o:o

No,most top class tipsters will tell you not to shy away from odds on favourites.

[bennocelt]

No,most top class tipsters will tell you not to shy away from odds on favourites.

no thats not true:)

you have to look at the value bets

again, and again this all goes down to how much you are willing to put on a 11/10, etc.
is 50 euro good, 100, 200, or how about 1000? thats a big risk, and not a good tip

you know we are not all Jp's around here!!!

[Sheridan]

I would very seldom place a single bet on anything, odds-on or otherwise. But you can incorporate a few short-odds bets into your accumulators and still win big.

[bennocelt]

Anyway to be honest it really all depends on your view on gambling. I mean I also do those odds on (or less) bets but they are not too good for your health:)

I just wanted to say there is betting available on the olympics on PP and i see that Emma Davis in the triathlon is 300-1 for a medal (Any medal). Now im not an expert on her discipline and i got her a few days at 500-1 (yeah i know:)), but i think thats worth at least a euro, since she has came from the high 40's in the world right upto top 17 in the world in about one year. So you never know on the day she :)could do something!!! (or am i dreaming again!!)

By the way Burnett is 4/1, Egan 5/1, Hession at 66/1 and Sutherland at 3/1

[Rovers fan]

no thats not true:)

you have to look at the value bets




So,an odds on favourite can still be good value.For example of chelsea are 1/2 to beat bohemians(obviously I know your not going to get these odds) you can't say thats not good value.I've seen professional punters say on many occasions not to be afraid of an odds on favourite.

[bennocelt]

So,an odds on favourite can still be good value.For example of chelsea are 1/2 to beat bohemians(obviously I know your not going to get these odds) you can't say thats not good value.I've seen professional punters say on many occasions not to be afraid of an odds on favourite.


Yeah you see i understand all that, and yes i do those bets all the time, but you cant honestly tell me that they are good value bets, and they are def not "tips". All it takes is Chelsea to play their reserves and Bohs to grind out a draw and what then - you lost how much? They are risky bets
But to be fair, its all down to opinion. There are different types of punters out there. I a bit of a mix of the two.:)

Were you not watching Ascot and Aidan o Brien. I am a big supporter of his horses and Murtagh, but stayed well clear of it this year as I cant see the sense on putting on a tonne at odds of 8/10 or much less.
I would rather scour the betting market for good tips, like getting Harrington at 22/1;)

[bholg]

I would rather scour the betting market for good tips, like getting Harrington at 22/1;)

He was 55 on betfair on friday. whyohwhy did I not throw a few $$$ on??:o

[Rovers fan]

I would rather scour the betting market for good tips, like getting Harrington at 22/1;)

Techinically that's not good value considering you could have gotten him at 55s;):p

[bholg]

Were you not watching Ascot and Aidan o Brien. I am a big supporter of his horses and Murtagh, but stayed well clear of it this year as I cant see the sense on putting on a tonne at odds of 8/10 or much less.


I was watching, and it would have been the height of sense to back them all the way. you would have had plenty of profit. I only had a few of them, but winners are winners.

easy to say that now, of course

[bennocelt]

I was watching, and it would have been the height of sense to back them all the way. you would have had plenty of profit. I only had a few of them, but winners are winners.

easy to say that now, of course

one of their winners was 1/5 or something like that and most were 10/11
of course not all of O Briens top horses won, and thats the risk, win a 100 lose a 100!

[zenokelly]

Anyway to be honest it really all depends on your view on gambling. I mean I also do those odds on (or less) bets but they are not too good for your health:)

I just wanted to say there is betting available on the olympics on PP and i see that Emma Davis in the triathlon is 300-1 for a medal (Any medal). Now im not an expert on her discipline and i got her a few days at 500-1 (yeah i know:)), but i think thats worth at least a euro, since she has came from the high 40's in the world right upto top 17 in the world in about one year. So you never know on the day she :)could do something!!! (or am i dreaming again!!)

By the way Burnett is 4/1, Egan 5/1, Hession at 66/1 and Sutherland at 3/1

Ya I thik the value there is Egan @ 5/1 to win a medal, he's 3rd or 4th in the world in his weight division.

PP were doing a special a few weeks ago for Hession to make the final in the 200m, and I got on @ 9/1 and 9/2! I felt that was a bit of value, I'd advise you get on that if it is put back up!

[brianw82]

My tip for the weekend: Bohs and Limerick 37 to beat UCD and Wexford respectively.

Odds are approx. 9-4 at the moment with Boylesports.

[bholg]

Stick dundalk to beat the mons into that one to beef it up slightly.... GREEDISGOOD
one of their winners was 1/5 or something like that and most were 10/11
of course not all of O Briens top horses won, and thats the risk, win a 100 lose a 100!Yeah - a 1/5 is ridiculous - laying material.... but an even money or even 10/11 isnt always to be sniffed at... especially in the context of the week you refer to.

[bennocelt]

Stick dundalk to beat the mons into that one to beef it up slightly.... GREEDISGOODYeah - a 1/5 is ridiculous - laying material.... but an even money or even 10/11 isnt always to be sniffed at... especially in the context of the week you refer to.

yeah you are right,
but put 10 euro on 10 horse at 10/11 and you roughly win 100. great

or put 10 euro on 10 outsiders (good value tips!) at 4/1 or more and you win.......minimum of 3 right should get you well over a 100. And a decent gambler should be hitting 40% to 60% of bets at least:)

Anyway I backed Andy Hamilton to beat Michael van Gerwen in the darts yesterday at 4/7. trebled him up with Wade and Taylor. Of course he lost!!!!!!
(it happens all the time!!)

You can get Drogheda to win tonight at 3.9 on Betfair. probably more on other British sites, but i think that could at least happen

[bennocelt]

Ya I thik the value there is Egan @ 5/1 to win a medal, he's 3rd or 4th in the world in his weight division.

PP were doing a special a few weeks ago for Hession to make the final in the 200m, and I got on @ 9/1 and 9/2! I felt that was a bit of value, I'd advise you get on that if it is put back up!


yeah I saw that thread about this (was it yours?). I didnt have time to do that bet, it certainly looked good, and maybe thats why it was taken off.

I was thinking that mark Cavendish, the British cycling guy would be a good bet for a olympic gold, but haven't seen any prices of yet?

[zenokelly]

yeah I saw that thread about this (was it yours?). I didnt have time to do that bet, it certainly looked good, and maybe thats why it was taken off.

I was thinking that mark Cavendish, the British cycling guy would be a good bet for a olympic gold, but haven't seen any prices of yet?

Ya that was me. Ya it was backed in from 10-1 right down to 9-2 and then it was taken down by PP. They might put it up again closer to the time.

I haven't seen any prices for British gold medals on sports other than athletics, which is also on PP.

I think Idowu to win gold in the triple jump is a decent price @ 11/8, came in from 13/8 since the market was put up on about Sunday. He's got the two longest jumps in the world this year. Here's the stats:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=O/age=n/season=2008/sex=M/all=n/legal=A/disc=TJ/detail.html

[micls]

If anyone was considering putting money on City to win Sunday(6-5), you're probably better putting the money on Dave Mooney to score and City to win at 16-5.

Given that the bets are basically the same thing. If we're gonna win then its gonna be by Mooney scoring.....