The 2016 GE thread

[culloty82]

It seems all that remains is for the Labour Conference to be held, with Enda then going to the Áras on Monday/Tuesday week. It certainly seems the oddest election I can remember, as even in 2011, interest was maintained through how evenly or otherwise FG and Labour would divide their FF gains, but it would now be a shock of epic proportions if FG didn't comfortably finish as the leading party.

Fine Gael:

Still on course with the Noonan Plan of meeting the requirements of the "comfortable" 30% of the population, even if that necessarily prevents them from growing support. Between rural farmers and urban professionals will consolidate their support base. Prediction: 58 seats.

Fianna Fáil:

Even on the same vote as 2011, would gain seats through better candidate management. Uncomfortably fenced between centre-left economics and conservative social policies, but many rural constituencies remain two-party areas. Prediction: 32 seats.

Sinn Féin:

On course to fulfil one part of their "Project" by becoming the leading party of the Irish left. Support notably declining in the last 12 months, but rather than the Provo legacy, may be outflanked in future elections by the AAA-PBP and the Soc Dems. Prediction: 24 seats.

Labour:

A real existential battle for survival, as the party faces not one, but three challengers for control of the Irish left. Have recovered slightly from the nadir of 2014, so some of the leadership may survive, but the long-term prospects for Labour appear terminal. Prediction: 12 ​seats.

AAA-PBP:

Have managed to claw some semblance of unity out of the wreckage of the ULA, but the "Judean Peoples' Front" tag remains ever relevant. Have failed to really tap into the Right2Water movement, and remain largely confined to Dublin. Prediction: 6 seats.

Social Democrats:

Increasingly look set to be confined to be filed under "missed opportunity" - enjoyed popular appeal at launch, but have shown no organisational or marketing nous, with little progress six months later. Would still be a shock if any of the founders lost, however. Prediction: 3 seats.

Renua:

If the SDs have wasted a gap in the market, then Renua are the PDs Nua that no-one particularly asked for. Even FF have stolen their moral clothes, and unless they enter Government, it's difficult to see a long-term future for the party. Prediction: 2 seats.

Independents & Others:

Healy-Rae and Lowry will be returned in their respective constituencies, as will most of Ross's Independent Alliance. Eamon Ryan is 50/50 in terms of being the only Green returned. Prediction: 21 seats.

All in all, looks like the Coalition will have the SDs and Renua bolted on for 75 seats, with some independents tapped up to reach the magic 80.

[nigel-harps1954]

You're off your head if you think FG will walk the election like that.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I decided a while ago that I couldn't vote, #1 at least, for any of the four mainstays, or the hard left conglomerates/independents. But I'm lucky that I have a strong "other" option in my constituency - Catherine Murphy - to look to.

In terms of pure political spectatorship, it's fascinating. Odds on it'll be awkward after the vote. Can certainly envision a cobbled together beast of FG/L/Renua/Like minded independents getting over the line, unless the FF/SF standoffishness is all talk (and they get the harder left to play ball).

[OwlsFan]

You're off your head if you think FG will walk the election like that.

Historically, FG/Lab get in when FF screw up the economy and things are so bad they have to introduce unpopular measures and then get kicked back out of office at the next election, with the junior partner suffering the most (i.e. Labour). This time the same has happened but they managed to survive until some small bit of light appeared at the end of the tunnel and we didn't have to join the Greeks in penury, but whether that light is enough to see FG maintain a lot of the gains is the big imponderable. Labour are screwed. Interesting election ahead.

[dahamsta]

True, we just sway back and forth between FG and FF in Ireland, I'd be very surprised if we don't see a big increase in FF seats. I'll be horrified, but not surprised.

I won't be voting Labour again for a good long while to come. They don't deserve to call themselves left-wing any more.

[SkStu]

As someone who has lost touch with Irish party/populist politics especially over the last few years, can someone explain to me how on earth a party like FF will ever get as many seats as that back? I know history runs deep with the big two but really the damage they did to our country should see them in penance for more than one GE cycle. I think it shows us to be a very shallow electorate (maybe every electorate is) that deserves poor governance.

Also, the little bit I read and hear from folks back home tends to paint FG as the great Satan. Beyond making cuts that were needed and tough decisions that were needed where does that loathing come from? Is it old school FFers? Is it warranted? Is it that they let banks off the hook and foisted the recovery 100% onto the people? Didn't the people have some penance to pay too?

I don't know - as I said im out of touch and so my thoughts and questions may seem a little pointed/insensitive - not intentional, just curious for the opinions of the group.

[Mr A]

The outgoing government may well be more kindly judged by history than they are currently. They inherited a country in a dangerous mess and things have turned around reasonably quickly. But in the details they made a lot of mistakes, and I fear we're on the way to repeating the same old mistakes as auction politics kicks in. Labour get a kicking because they're seen as leftist- but I've always seen them as economically centrist but socially liberal. They were by far the smaller party in government and would rightly have a lot less influence- but for some reason in this country we always seem to expect the tail to wag the dog.

Narrow the tax base again as the resistance to property taxes and water charges are huge. Plus we're back to far too reliance on two pillar banks- and AIB especially has a history of going rogue. And on justice FG are far too wedded to the status quo- how an insider was appointed commissioner after all the shenanigans in the Gardai I'll never understand. Opportunities for real and lasting reform have been missed on various front in the past couple of years- but we're in markedly better shape than some of the other bailed out countries.

Anyhow, if I have a point it's that things are in a very messy and unpredictable state. It's going to be a fascinating campaign.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm not sure if the Irish electorate is especially amnesiac when it comes to the past sins of political parties. It certainly seems that way sometimes. Fianna Fail just have that core of loyal voters, who even voted for them in 2011 (nearly 1 in 5 voters), so, you know, would always vote for them. Place yourself in opposition to an austerity government, and eventually other voters will start gravitating towards you, regardless of whether the austerity is your fault to begin with.

It helps that they have, by necessity, had to put in lots of new faces for candidacy I'm sure (for example, in mine, two sitting FF's TD's lost out in 2011, two new candidates, only elected as Councillors in 2014, are running now).

[culloty82]

Good poll for the smaller parties tonight:

FG 29% (-1)
SF 19% (0)
FF 17% (-2)
Ind 16% (+1)
Lab 10% (+1)
AAA-PBP 3% (0)
Green 3% (+1)
SD 2% (+1)
Renua 1% (-1)

All in all, looks like the larger parties are cannibalising one another, while local factors will see AAA, SDs and Renua retain their current seats.

Seats according to Adrian Kavanagh:

FG 56
FF 27
SF 25
Lab 14
Oth 36

[bennocelt]

Good poll for the smaller parties tonight:

FG 29% (-1)
SF 19% (0)
FF 17% (-2)
Ind 16% (+1)
Lab 10% (+1)
AAA-PBP 3% (0)
Green 3% (+1)
SD 2% (+1)
Renua 1% (-1)

All in all, looks like the larger parties are cannibalising one another, while local factors will see AAA, SDs and Renua retain their current seats.

Seats according to Adrian Kavanagh:

FG 56
FF 27
SF 25
Lab 14
Oth 36

Yeah agree, did my own version going by PP odds, and a bit here and there.....

I have FG at 59.....perhaps 61
But I really see Labour struggling to get even 10, and PP have them not to as well (8/11), in fact they have Burton not to get her seat at the moment.....which is mad
I have FF at 32
and I do think SF will do well, definitely get over 23.5 (4/5)
I think it will be FG with Lab and Renua, SD, and the FG Independents.

R Troy, next FF leader at 18/1? All excited in Mullingar about this, even if he is a total c.......:)

[NeverFeltBetter]

If Burton loses her seat, she's obligated to resign the party leadership. In the event that it's an apocalyptic <10 scenario as well, I can easily imagine the new diminished Labour PP deciding to abandon government and go back to left wing opposition.

[culloty82]

Howlin seems certain to hang on, more so than Kelly at any rate, so he might fall into the leadership by default...

[SocStudent]

Hard to disagree, depressing but probably true.

[Macy]

I genuinely haven't decided who'll get my number 1. It was most likely to be Donnelly, but his hypocrisy over giving out about auction politics and going on about keeping a wider tax base, whilst at the same time saying the Social Democrats will ditch water charges has really disappointed me.

I think this type of stuff will come up more and more in the campaign and may sway more people between their various options. Potentially a very interesting campaign and election!

[Dodge]

Should be noted that only 79 is required for a majority this time.

I think FG voters are very happy with the performance of their government. They pretty much got what they voted (bar a couple of social issues that Labour managed to slide past them). Their numbers will stay fairly similar

Still a small chance that Labour's vote in Dublin will make them the 3rd biggest party there after FG and SF

[SocStudent]

GE 26 feb....let the false promises commence!

[Real ale Madrid]

I genuinely haven't decided who'll get my number 1. It was most likely to be Donnelly, but his hypocrisy over giving out about auction politics and going on about keeping a wider tax base, whilst at the same time saying the Social Democrats will ditch water charges has really disappointed me.


To be fair to Donnelly and the SD's on this issue - he makes the point about how much it is costing to Charge people and with the anarchy over payments and the cost of collection, it is not nearly enough to cover to required investment. Why not have a fully functioning Water system that is fit for purpose first, make it a public body, and then charge people - seems like a logical stance to me.

http://stephendonnelly.ie/the-uncomfortable-truth-about-irish-water/

[ForzaHoop]

You should do a Poll and see what LOI people will vote, i know it won't be FG.FF or Labour for me

[Macy]

To be fair to Donnelly and the SD's on this issue - he makes the point about how much it is costing to Charge people and with the anarchy over payments and the cost of collection, it is not nearly enough to cover to required investment. Why not have a fully functioning Water system that is fit for purpose first, make it a public body, and then charge people - seems like a logical stance to me.
No, not buying it - you could fix the system/ organisation and keep the expanded tax base that he wants to maintain in all other areas. It's just as much populist "auction politics" as reducing USC that he's so against, in my opinion.

It's not the only thing in recent months he's come out with that has been hypocritical. No different from most politicians, but he has set himself up as offering a different perspective, and he really hasn't lived up to it for me as the election has approached. He's just more of the same.

[Real ale Madrid]

No, not buying it - you could fix the system/ organisation and keep the expanded tax base that he wants to maintain in all other areas. It's just as much populist "auction politics" as reducing USC that he's so against, in my opinion.


Well it sounds like you are damned if you do and you are damned if you don't so. He puts forward a pretty logical argument - stop installing water meters, stop charging people and stop giving them money for nothing (i.e. - conversation grant plus the administration of same) and use that money to add to what you invest in an ailing system. When the system is fit for purpose, and becomes a public body then look at rates. If you are for water charges then you are accused of overburdening people, if you are against them you are populist. I’ve no issue with paying water charges – I have an issue with why they were introduced ( paying off unsecured bond-holders ) but they are necessary in the long term. I have no objection to SD’s putting forward this argument especially in the manner he does. You won't get that from a FF/FG manifesto thats for sure ( at least you didn't in the past ).

[Macy]

I’ve no issue with paying water charges – I have an issue with why they were introduced ( paying off unsecured bond-holders ) but they are necessary in the long term. I have no objection to SD’s putting forward this argument especially in the manner he does. You won't get that from a FF/FG manifesto thats for sure ( at least you didn't in the past ).
It's not really about water. It's about the contradiction of saying getting rid of that, whilst opposing the cutting of other charges on the basis of it not maintain the widening of the tax base. Water charges were part of that widening of the tax base, whether you or he or the Social Democrats want to accept that or not.

[Real ale Madrid]

It's not really about water. It's about the contradiction of saying getting rid of that, whilst opposing the cutting of other charges on the basis of it not maintain the widening of the tax base. Water charges were part of that widening of the tax base, whether you or he or the Social Democrats want to accept that or not.

Fair enough - I couldn't disagree more really - I like his financial matter of fact approach - he treats each item on its own merits and if we are not getting bang for our tax buck - then he will say so.

[bennocelt]

Didn't Donnelly say he didn't know if he had paid the water charges when he was asked at the launch of the party? I found that a bit strange, lol! What kind of answer was that. (not criticising him or anything......dont know enough about his party)

[IsMiseSean]

I think FG voters are very happy with the performance of their government. They pretty much got what they voted (bar a couple of social issues that Labour managed to slide past them). Their numbers will stay fairly similar


Fine Gael's number of TDs will drop but I don't think by a huge amount unfortunately. I'm not sure of the situation in other constituencies but in Galway I see it like this,

In Galway West they'll probably hold on to their two seats but at the expense of a Labour seat. I can't see all 3 gov't TDs being re-elected. My guess would be 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF & 1 Ind.

In Galway East they'll more than likely lose a seat since it's now only a 3 seater. Labour won't win a seat. Lorraine Higgins is their candidate, her transfers could make a difference though. My guess 1 FG, 1 FF & 1 Ind.

[culloty82]

Proof that social media is no substitute for shoe leather:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/the-digital-world-a-new-general-election-battleground-379899.html

[SocStudent]

I think FF might surprise everyone, a lot of mainstream people I talk to seem quite prepared to forgive.

I think the independent and FF vote may be the surprise this election.

[dahamsta]

Idiots. Mainstream idiots.

[NeverFeltBetter]

If my father is any indication, there are people out there who will happily give Fine Gael a #1 preference while slinging abuse towards Labour for their time in government.

[SocStudent]

Many seem reluctant to vote outside of a party. If we don't change our voting practices history will continue to be repeated. Really hope people do not but the stability over chaos argument.

[Macy]

Most independents are out of the party system, and only left either on a specific issue or for past seat preservation or some selection issue. And most will be happy to prop up a Government in return for favours. I don't see the rise of the independent as the great white hope of democracy in Ireland.

[Mr A]

I thought this was quite funny: https://twitter.com/Tupp_Ed/status/696828558510002176

"I chose “No opinion” on all the political issue questions for Dublin Rathdown and matched strongly with Shane Ross. "

[osarusan]

Most independents are out of the party system, and only left either on a specific issue or for past seat preservation or some selection issue. And most will be happy to prop up a Government in return for favours. I don't see the rise of the independent as the great white hope of democracy in Ireland.

Seconded. In many cases they're the greatest prostitutes of all - support practically anything at national level to get what they need at local level.

[dahamsta]

Many seem reluctant to vote outside of a party. If we don't change our voting practices history will continue to be repeated. Really hope people do not but the stability over chaos argument.

I refuse to vote for a FF candidate, because the party they're a member of, and critically the party they'll vote with, destroyed this country.

I refuse to vote for a FG candidate because the party they're a member of, the party they'll vote with, made us pay for FF's failures, not the investors that fed it. And they did it because they were told to, not because they chose to.

I'm not even going to explain why I won't vote for a Labour candidate. Anyone that's still involved in Labour should be ashamed of themselves.

It doesn't leave me with a whole lot, but yes, I'll still go out and vote, because I'd be worse than them if I didn't. But no, I won't vote for anyone from those parties. Screw them, if they want to align themselves with a bunch of turncoats, cowards, idiots and pigs, that's their lookout.

[dahamsta]

Here's what I want to know: What would it actually take for the idiots in Tipp to not vote for Lowry? Do we need a carrot or a stick?

I say we move all the Lowry voters into Leitrim, and fence it off.

[nigel-harps1954]

I refuse to vote for a FF candidate, because the party they're a member of, and critically the party they'll vote with, destroyed this country.

I refuse to vote for a FG candidate because the party they're a member of, the party they'll vote with, made us pay for FF's failures, not the investors that fed it. And they did it because they were told to, not because they chose to.

I'm not even going to explain why I won't vote for a Labour candidate. Anyone that's still involved in Labour should be ashamed of themselves.

It doesn't leave me with a whole lot, but yes, I'll still go out and vote, because I'd be worse than them if I didn't. But no, I won't vote for anyone from those parties. Screw them, if they want to align themselves with a bunch of turncoats, cowards, idiots and pigs, that's their lookout.

Very much my own opinion on the matter too. I'd also lump SF in there too. Something about them in power simply terrifies me. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'm just terribly uneasy about it.
I won't let it sway my opinions completely however.
It helps somewhat for me, coming into a constituency that's new to me for the first time since moving to Carlow, that I don't know the candidates, and I can make a properly balanced decision based on whatever jargan or spin that impresses me the most.

One thing I know for sure, this Bobby Aylward fella is one smug looking b&stard in his posters. One of those faces that you'd just love to punch. It helps he's part of FF.

[Mr A]

FF, FG and Labour all ran in the last election on the broad basis that the deal agreed by the previous government with the Troika would be implemented and it can certainly be argued that on an overall basis the outgoing government delivered and got the country back on its feet having been to the brink of meltdown. On the other hand they consistently fecked up various things- Irish Water, cack handed handling of justice etc. Some of their biggest feck-ups were over promising in the campaign- but I suspect any party who doesn't will be slaughtered. For example the idea of burning the bondholders seems to have been a ship that had already sailed by the time they got in. They followed a largely FG agenda- and rightly so since they had far more seats. I find it bizarre in this country that we seem to expect similar or even more influence from the smaller party than the larger. I think history will be kinder to them than possibly the electorate will be- especially in Labour's case.

[Eminence Grise]

Here's what I want to know: What would it actually take for the idiots in Tipp to not vote for Lowry?

Quite probably an extiction level event. Asteroid? Comet? Compulsory sterilisation of all Tipp males?


I say we move all the Lowry voters into Leitrim, and fence it off.

As a Rossie I'd nearly welcome the asteroid rather than have that on the old homestead's border!!

[joey B]

I'm having a real tough time deciding who to vote for because in all honesty the choices are so underwhelming,the biggest issue in this election for me should be our health service and who will have the best policies to fix what is essentially a 3rd world service,but in all honesty I have seen nothing from anybody that would fill me with confidence in regards to fixing or at least improving it.

[Dodge]

I'm having a real tough time deciding who to vote for because in all honesty the choices are so underwhelming,the biggest issue in this election for me should be our health service and who will have the best policies to fix what is essentially a 3rd world service,but in all honesty I have seen nothing from anybody that would fill me with confidence in regards to fixing or at least improving it.

You need to avoid parties promising tax cuts so.

[culloty82]

Danny Healy-Rae joins his brother on the Kerry ballot - they could be a bigger "party" than Renua once the dust settles!

[Mr A]

Danny Healy-Rae joins his brother on the Kerry ballot - they could be a bigger "party" than Renua once the dust settles!

Dangerous move. Could split the "Complete Fecking Moron" vote.

[dahamsta]

I'd also lump SF in there too. Something about them in power simply terrifies me. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'm just terribly uneasy about it.

They have a terrible reputation on the manifesto front, vague promises and all that, but I haven't had the chance to read this year's first. I did hear a promise on the radio the other day that wasn't accompanied with any sort of strategy, and that infuriated me as ever. The manifesto will be getting a thorough read on the bog this weekend.


it can certainly be argued that on an overall basis the outgoing government delivered and got the country back on its feet having been to the brink of meltdown.

It could also be argued that: a) the country would have recovered faster had we burned the bondholders and FDR'd our way through it, and apparently this nearly always trumps austerity; b) the government delivered what they were told to deliver by the troika, and the highest reward we should give them for that is stars for their foreheads; and c) we're not actually back on our feet yet, and in fact many economists thinks that we're back in a bubble.


For example the idea of burning the bondholders seems to have been a ship that had already sailed by the time they got in.

The outgoing government made plenty of decisions on the subject while in government, and they are masters of our domain.


I'm having a real tough time deciding who to vote for because in all honesty the choices are so underwhelming

And this is different from every other election how? :) Oh to be back in the day when I had "principles", and, you know, no children or house. :)


the biggest issue in this election for me should be our health service and who will have the best policies to fix what is essentially a 3rd world service

Are you seriously comparing our health service to the likes of Uganda or North Korea?

I've been to A&E 4 or 5 times in the past 2 years or so, with my kids and my mum on one occasion, and on all occasions we were dealt with in the order we should have been, by people who cared and were good at their jobs, came out healthy at the end of the process, and it only cost money on one occasion (because my mother didn't get a referral). I've also been to SouthDoc numerous times and the service there was generally very good, and our GP has charged us a fraction of what he could have over the years, with our terrifying group visits.

The wait times are appalling, and need to improve immediately, I'm not sure they've ever been at the ~2 hour level, which I would consider reasonable. The beds situation is an absolute disgrace, and again is something that's been static as long as I can remember. And the amount of middle managers in the health service is positively disgusting, But the quality of care in Ireland is generally very good, and a comparison to the 3rd world is frankly ridiculous.

[bennocelt]

I think I need to lie down, I gave dahamsta three thumbs up (spot on):p


Thinking of doing Labour with 9.5 seats or less, and Sf with 24.5+, just waiting for my good mate PP to get back to me with some tasty odds.....

[Real ale Madrid]

Dangerous move. Could split the "Complete Fecking Moron" vote.

Transfers! Transfers!

[culloty82]

Looks increasingly like FG-FF is the only option:

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/

[joey B]

Are you seriously comparing our health service to the likes of Uganda or North Korea?

I've been to A&E 4 or 5 times in the past 2 years or so, with my kids and my mum on one occasion, and on all occasions we were dealt with in the order we should have been, by people who cared and were good at their jobs, came out healthy at the end of the process, and it only cost money on one occasion (because my mother didn't get a referral). I've also been to SouthDoc numerous times and the service there was generally very good, and our GP has charged us a fraction of what he could have over the years, with our terrifying group visits.

The wait times are appalling, and need to improve immediately, I'm not sure they've ever been at the ~2 hour level, which I would consider reasonable. The beds situation is an absolute disgrace, and again is something that's been static as long as I can remember. And the amount of middle managers in the health service is positively disgusting, But the quality of care in Ireland is generally very good, and a comparison to the 3rd world is frankly ridiculous.

I accept comparing it to a 3rd world country was harsh,but when you live in the North west and see old people being forced to travel for 4 hours on buses to get cancer treatment or the absolute shambles our health service makes of treating people with mental health issues it is easy to have a paticular view on our health service and treatment that many, NOT ALL recieve.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Looks increasingly like FG-FF is the only option:

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/

Fianna Fail actually need the approval of a special Ard Fheis to approve going into a coalition, and it's unlikely, to say the least, such an Ard Fheis would approve a junior role in coalition with Fine Gael. Plenty of TD's would go for it, but the local membership would need some serious convincing.

I'm not sure there's any real benefit to FF of supporting a minority government either. Indeed, I don't think it's to anyone's electoral advantage to prop up Fine Gael/Labour in a likely hung Dail. It's easy to envision another election very quickly, but I'm not sure how it would turn out any different.

What is the process for a hung Dail anyway? Does Higgins just go to the party leaders one by one and ask them to try and form a government? I know that's how it's done in some European countries.

[Macy]

I'm not really convinced about the current polls to be honest. I've read that undecided's are up at 30%, although they polling companies/ those commissioning them don't seem that upfront about what the current level is. Just something doesn't seem right to me about them - the underlying important issues don't seem to tally with the party figures. Remains to be seen obviously, but just my anecdotal evidence is that a lot of people are undecided, or at least unwilling to say, which way they're going to vote. A lot aren't too exercised about the election yet anyway.

The way the commentary is, particularly some of the (frankly ridiculous) social media commentary, I wouldn't be surprised if we have our own version of shy Tories - people who won't publicly commit that they think the current Government are doing ok.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Social media definitely skews more left-wing than the country. Sinn Fein probably has the most active Twitter usage of any party for one thing.

[Macy]

Social media definitely skews more left-wing than the country. Sinn Fein probably has the most active Twitter usage of any party for one thing.
It's not even the shinnerbots - there's a "like and share" cohort on facebook that are always outraged about something the Government is or isn't doing. You wouldn't blame the average voter keeping their head down with some of the stuff that's posted!