The 2016 GE thread

[Dodge]

Social media definitely skews more left-wing than the country. Sinn Fein probably has the most active Twitter usage of any party for one thing.

As Macy says, it isn't even left-wing, it's just outrage. Plenty of folk clearly right wing sharing crap all over social media

[BonnieShels]

Everytime I think I can't dislike Meehole anymore he goes and makes it so.

What a petulant cnut.

[backstothewall]

If there's anything to be said for partition it's not having Joan Burton in my life. Who on earth thought that woman was cut out to lead a political party? She has one of those voices that would make you want to pour tar in your ears.

[Macy]

If there's anything to be said for partition it's not having Joan Burton in my life. Who on earth thought that woman was cut out to lead a political party? She has one of those voices that would make you want to pour tar in your ears.
I didn't watch the debate, but it's actually more depressing that it's about the sound of her voice, or even about a couple of hours debating time, as to who the electorate will or won't vote for - it should be about policy and record FFS.

[Real ale Madrid]

Watched the debate.
Thought Stephen Donnelly started well but tailed off a bit - I get the feeling unless you are talking about the economy he is not great - needs more experience I suppose.
Richard Boyd Barrett is a good speaker and has a clear message - he surprised me.
Lucinda Creighton - I'm still figuring her out - a decent speaker but I disagree with her message fundamentally.
Gerry Adams - disappointing - apart from the odd Punchline (no pun intended) I didn't feel he got his message across well. I'm not well up on Northern Ireland politics; but with them in power I don't get the impression that the place is falling apart like many would have you believe if they were part of the next government.
Michael Martin – Didn’t do as well as the TV3 one – but certainly the most accomplished speaker – I’m surprised the others didn’t round on him more often – I have to admire his neck on lecturing others on Health policy.
Joan Burton – not a great public speaker – but Labour are taking a disproportionate amount of the blame for the state this country is in I think – the whole situation is becoming frustrating for her and for them. They are fighting a losing battle now.
Enda Kenny – you would think that the country’s political leader would dominate these debates – in truth only a bit part player and trying to say as little as possible. I must say thoroughly unimpressive, but there is nothing we didn’t know already there.
An interesting debate ? or the worst game of the weakest link ever ? – I thought considering the potential for utter chaos with 7 speakers – Claire Byrne did a good job keeping order and I stayed watching even though I didn’t intend doing so.

[backstothewall]

I didn't watch the debate, but it's actually more depressing that it's about the sound of her voice, or even about a couple of hours debating time, as to who the electorate will or won't vote for - it should be about policy and record FFS.

It's about her ability to communicate. If Irish people can't bear to hear her speak what chance has she got in Europe, or the USA when she is supposed to be representing our interests? Some people are born with one of those voices you could listen to all day. Bill Clinton is a great example of that. Then you get people like Ed Milliband or Martin McGuinness who as professionals have to go to voice coaching etc to allow them to better communicate with the electorate.

[Dodge]

It's about her ability to communicate. If Irish people can't bear to hear her speak what chance has she got in Europe, or the USA when she is supposed to be representing our interests? Some people are born with one of those voices you could listen to all day. Bill Clinton is a great example of that. Then you get people like Ed Milliband or Martin McGuinness who as professionals have to go to voice coaching etc to allow them to better communicate with the electorate.

She isn't really going to the US and her English is perfectly fine for Europe. That's a complete red herring

[Real ale Madrid]

She isn't really going to the US and her English is perfectly fine for Europe. That's a complete red herring

Joan Burton has been in the US multiple times over the course of the last 5 years representing Irish interests, a few times around St. Patricks day for sure - I don't agree with BacktoWalsall regarding her voice but its not a complete Red Herring either. People have to be able to communicate effectively and clearly, but I wouldn't hold back a vote if someone was an effective politician just because he/she had a poor speaking voice. It's not a major issue, but you have to concede its not helping them now as this election will be a huge crisis for the party after the expected results.

[Dodge]

I think Labour are in a now in a situation anyway. She could be a perfect orator and people still wouldn't give her the time of day. Instead, they don't like her and pick on the voice to make fun of her

[backstothewall]

Lest you think i'm just another Nordie ShinnerBot Martina Anderson is another awful example of the nails on a blackboard voice.

Joan should have plenty of time to work on it from the start of next month though

[OwlsFan]

For a start I'd ignore election promises because no party can keep them once they get in to power because the money isn't there to finance them.

The Health Service is a black hole. If you want to try and fix it, you'll have to pour billions at it and therefore no tax cuts. no extra money for pensioners and no money to spend and therefore no bump in the economy. Then the world recession comes round on the usual cycle and health spending (along with everything else) has to be cut. It's a vicious circle.

I'll vote for the party likely to do the least damage.

[Real ale Madrid]

The notion that you have to spend billions fixing the health service does not stand up to any sort of scrutiny. Out health spend per capita is up there if not higher than most of our European counterparts - there is no reason why with a modest increase in spending it can't and shouldn't become world class. There should be no reason why anyone should be on a hospital trolley ever and there should be no reason why people living in Donegal or Kerry should have to travel all the way to Dublin for treatment for whatever reason.

[nigel-harps1954]

Actually embarrassed for Labour with this advertisement.

https://scontent-bru2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-0/p296x100/12705291_960163180740990_4502096949488398959_n.jpg ?oh=679cf456981ed70fe9e868ed8f165c46&oe=576AC413

[Mr A]

Quite like that actually.

[BonnieShels]

The notion that you have to spend billions fixing the health service does not stand up to any sort of scrutiny. Out health spend per capita is up there if not higher than most of our European counterparts - there is no reason why with a modest increase in spending it can't and shouldn't become world class. There should be no reason why anyone should be on a hospital trolley ever and there should be no reason why people living in Donegal or Kerry should have to travel all the way to Dublin for treatment for whatever reason.

Exactly. People in Donegal should head to Derry and those in Kerry should go to Limerick and Cork.
People aren't prepared to accept "best practice" in a lot of instances and trying to get the "one for everyone" in the audience attitude out of Irish politics is maddening.

I've had to be around the health service a lot since last summer due to a family illness, both out-patient and in-patient. I couldn't fault what I experienced. The pinch points seem to be in Emergency admissions. If Primary care centres or minor hospitals existed properly for minor injuries and for longer opening periods of time we would remove triage (and habitual Emergency users) from A&E's.

[backstothewall]

It depends on the condition for me. With modern medicine becoming more specialised certain rare conditions, particularly paediatric conditions, will be best treated in Dublin. But the people are reasonable. Where that is the case people will accept the logic of that

[OwlsFan]

The notion that you have to spend billions fixing the health service does not stand up to any sort of scrutiny. Out health spend per capita is up there if not higher than most of our European counterparts - there is no reason why with a modest increase in spending it can't and shouldn't become world class. There should be no reason why anyone should be on a hospital trolley ever and there should be no reason why people living in Donegal or Kerry should have to travel all the way to Dublin for treatment for whatever reason.

I can't claim to be an expert on the health service but if "a modest increase" would render it world class, then I am amazed that every Government hasn't been able to see this and you have.

[Real ale Madrid]

I can't claim to be an expert on the health service but if "a modest increase" would render it world class, then I am amazed that every Government hasn't been able to see this and you have.

That's for sure anyway.


but if "a modest increase" would render it world class,

I didn't say it would - i said it SHOULD.

If you reconcile what other countries spend on health and compare it to what we spend on health and look at the comparative health services in those countries, then it paints a bleak picture of the HSE and successive governments. Too many vested interests, layers and layers of management, expensive medicine and an not enough emphasis on need rather ability to pay.

This is a HSE that can tell you rates of absenteeism in nurses by region - but ask them for Trolley numbers? - No they leave that to the INMO.
This is a HSE that can't find the money to fill all available doctor and consultant positions required but give them an election gimmick like free GP care for under 6 - no problem.
Ask yourself why we spend so much money training the best Doctor's and nurses in the world only to see them working everywhere but here.
There are literally thousands of unanswered questions and comments like that about our Health services - it would make you think we spend sweet FA on health.


[B] then I am amazed that every Government hasn't been able to see this and you have.

You are amazed? I'm amazed the last two Ministers for health didn't need help tying their own shoelaces for fck sake.

Leo Varadkar I had some hope for but he just accepts things as they are. Maybe as a doctor himself he can get an improvement if FG return.

[bennocelt]

For a start I'd ignore election promises because no party can keep them once they get in to power because the money isn't there to finance them.

.

Plenty for the banks though:(

[joey B]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDb92dLhMS0

[SkStu]

Exactly. People in Donegal should head to Derry and those in Kerry should go to Limerick and Cork.
People aren't prepared to accept "best practice" in a lot of instances and trying to get the "one for everyone" in the audience attitude out of Irish politics is maddening.

I've had to be around the health service a lot since last summer due to a family illness, both out-patient and in-patient. I couldn't fault what I experienced. The pinch points seem to be in Emergency admissions. If Primary care centres or minor hospitals existed properly for minor injuries and for longer opening periods of time we would remove triage (and habitual Emergency users) from A&E's.

In theory you're right Bonnie but with that is the need for a lot of education of the public and a change of culture. Easier said than done. I work for a health region in SK and we opened 2 primary care clinics over the last 5 years. The impact on ER demand has been next to non-existent with CTAS 4s and 5s (lowest acuity ER presentations) staying level. Healthcare is a conundrum in a lot of countries. That said we have halved our ER wait times over the last 3-4 years just by attacking the processes around triage, diagnostics and admissions/discharges.

[BonnieShels]

I've been keeping my eye over on boards and they seem to think that the media is awash with FGers.

But from what I can make out after every poll is that FG's (and to a lesser extent SF) results are played down when up and crisis when down. Meanwhile FF's results are played up like crazy when up a point and almost disregarded when down or unchanged.

It's ridiculous. I can see the trend continuing til Thursday morning before the embargo where a whopper result for FF will send them into election day with the favourites tag.

Considering what happened to this country from 2008-2011 it's scary and baffling. Maybe not baffling cos Irish people are pillocks.

[dahamsta]

The media doesn't regard it's job as informing or reporting any more (if it ever did), it believes that it needs to make news exciting and gripping in order to justify itself and stop the drift towards social media reporting. That means bluster and guff, and in this case looking for an underdog to champion. FF is the only party available that can be classed (by an entirely stretched definition) as an underdog, that can actually achieve something and not make them look like complete langers afterwards. So they'll lightly play up FF, and be "hard" on FF/LAB.

I just don't really read the news any more. I check the local paper website a couple times a week, check RTE, the Guardian and the BBC maybe once a week, when I run out of Reddit. Everything else comes from Reddit or from a person's mouth. "News" just angers and bores me.

[Macy]

I've been keeping my eye over on boards and they seem to think that the media is awash with FGers.

But from what I can make out after every poll is that FG's (and to a lesser extent SF) results are played down when up and crisis when down. Meanwhile FF's results are played up like crazy when up a point and almost disregarded when down or unchanged.

It's ridiculous. I can see the trend continuing til Thursday morning before the embargo where a whopper result for FF will send them into election day with the favourites tag.

Considering what happened to his country from 2008-2011 it's scary and baffling. Maybe not baffling cos Irish people are pillocks.
I thought it was just me with my long standing ABFF bias! Some of the commentary has been ridiculous, but most of it has come from the usual pro-FF sources (current and former INM hacks). I caught a bit of the mid week week in politics and Anne Harris was just ridiculously pro-FF. And another long standing issue is the number of (again particularly FF) former candidates/ spin doctors that are wheeled out and no mention of their history or potential bias.

The number of undecideds is still not really being spoken about, or how hard the independent votes are. I guess the media can't loose - they'll talk up based on (mainly) margin of error poll changes, if it doesn't come off it'll be the polling companies fault not their fault.

[OwlsFan]

That's for sure anyway.

I didn't say it would - i said it SHOULD.

If you reconcile what other countries spend on health and compare it to what we spend on health and look at the comparative health services in those countries, then it paints a bleak picture of the HSE and successive governments. Too many vested interests, layers and layers of management, expensive medicine and an not enough emphasis on need rather ability to pay.

This is a HSE that can tell you rates of absenteeism in nurses by region - but ask them for Trolley numbers? - No they leave that to the INMO.
This is a HSE that can't find the money to fill all available doctor and consultant positions required but give them an election gimmick like free GP care for under 6 - no problem.
Ask yourself why we spend so much money training the best Doctor's and nurses in the world only to see them working everywhere but here.
There are literally thousands of unanswered questions and comments like that about our Health services - it would make you think we spend sweet FA on health.



You are amazed? I'm amazed the last two Ministers for health didn't need help tying their own shoelaces for fck sake.

Leo Varadkar I had some hope for but he just accepts things as they are. Maybe as a doctor himself he can get an improvement if FG return.

"Should" or "would" I suspect you meant the same thing.

As to how much we spend on health, a slightly out of date index here:

http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/health_financing/atlas.html

Less that I thought but then this was at the height of the recession and certainly less than many of the EU countries. The USA a whopping 17.1 and when you add that to the amount they spend on the military, there must be shag all money left for anything else. Only Tuvalu spends more!!

When successive Governments don't get to grips with a problem, then there is obviously more to the problem that self-evident quick fixes. I have a friend who was casualty consultant in a hospital in Wales and the overcrowding there is almost as bad so the NHS is necessarily the ideal model.

What sort of clown is Enda ? He's now claiming that the whingers remark was directed at FFailers in Castlebar! When in a hole, stop digging.

[BonnieShels]

The People's Debate makes me wish thee was an alternative to democracy.

FF are abhorrent.

[Macy]

What sort of clown is Enda ? He's now claiming that the whingers remark was directed at FFailers in Castlebar! When in a hole, stop digging.
One of the websites has the flier that it supposedly caused the comments. It is pretty whingy in fairness. For me, the apology/ backtracking is worse...

In other news, FG canvassers apparently take advantage of the Sinners inability/ laziness to actually use a letter box properly... Probably a joke about letter bombs in there somewhere! http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/battle-of-ballymahon-gardai-called-to-dispute-between-candidates-following-alleged-leaflet-theft-34476773.html

Regarding health - the health funding figures. Is that based on HSE funding or actual Health spending? Despite the "get rid of the pen pushers" mantra a lot use, the HSE still does a lot of purely non health related administrative work.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'd bet there are a large amount of people right on-board with the "whingers" comment.

[Macy]

I'd bet there are a large amount of people right on-board with the "whingers" comment.
Like with a lot of this election, it was mainly the media creating a story, and giving FF the opportunity to say "arrogance" about a million more times imo. I haven't heard it be the subject of any office/ water cooler/ kitchen talk in work anyway, although I believe Joe DuFFy got a whole show out of it!

Hard to see a game changer tonight either. Media again talking up the debate, and Kenny having to do something other than ok, but I'm not really convinced he has too. I still wouldn't be surprised by a big swing from "undecided" to "incumbents" on Friday.

[BonnieShels]

So the latest polls show FG on 30. Again. And yet the headline was about FF's rise and teh consistency of that rise. You couldn't make it uyp.

EDIT: they changed the headline on RTÉ to: Fine Gael hold steady, Labour on wane
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0223/770130-election-redc-poll/

At this rate I would be very happy with some sort of FG/SF/LB/SD coalition as fantastical as that may sound.

[nigel-harps1954]

Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?

[Real ale Madrid]

Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?

There would want to be a good 20-25 years of austerity for that to become a reality.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Is a Sinn Fein/AAA/PBP coalition possible?

There would really have to be an incredibly huge swing left for that to happen. Sinn Fein will be delighted to come away with somewhere between 25-30 seats, maybe a bit more on a really good day. The AAA/PBP would be doing well to get 6 or 7. Even throwing in 3 "Inds4Change", the 4 or 5 Soc Dems and the hard left Independents with them, it would be nowhere near 79.

This Dail is going to be as hung as any in the history of the state. Only thing resembling a stable government I can see is a minority FG/Lab coalition kept going with FF assent as it see's fit.

[backstothewall]

Irish elections are seldom truly national these days. There are 40 almost completely unrelated elections happening on Friday. For that reason I suspect SF and FF will exceed expectations. When telephone polls are being carried out people are being asked which party they will vote for, and people might be less likely to admit to voting for either party, but when it comes to the ballot box I think they will be more likely to vote for the local candidate of those parties.

Irish people tend to believe that political parties are full of crooks, but the lads in their own county aren't like the rest. Everyone is sure that in general FF are the party of the brown envelope and that the Shinners would know their way around a balaclava, "but we're lucky, the FF candidate here is the cousin of the owner of Kelly's Bar, and sure the SF candidate is a nice young woman with a young family so she would never have been involved in anything like that.".

I know SF have historically tended to underperform compared to opinion polls but their candidates will be better known know than at any previous election. A lot of them are councillors now rather than just an unknown name. It's a lot easier to assume that person you have never heard of is just a provo in a suit.

Conversely I could see independents not doing as well as the polls would expect. The boundary changes could have a hefty impact. Independents by their nature focus hard on the constituency. When those lines move the candidates from the big parties will pick up votes in the new areas by virtue of party loyalty, but independents get no such benefit.

I'll have a guess at...

FG 53
FF 39
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26

[BonnieShels]

How is it possible that FF would be 14 seats behind FG? mother of God. Not saying you're wrong Walsall, but Irish people need to have a long hard look.

FG53+SF32+LB8+SD5= Nice (Impossible, but nice)

I'm just more petrified that FF can possibly be close to forming a coalition.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I don't see how. They'd only consider Fine Gael if they were the larger party, which remains unlikely, and Sinn Fein's membership doesn't seem stupid enough to go in with them as a junior party, in the unlikely event they'd have the numbers. They'll be happy to remain one of the central opposition voices.

[backstothewall]

How is it possible that FF would be 14 seats behind FG? mother of God. Not saying you're wrong Walsall, but Irish people need to have a long hard look.

FG53+SF32+LB8+SD5= Nice (Impossible, but nice)

I'm just more petrified that FF can possibly be close to forming a coalition.

Lots of reasons, but there's no way i'm showing my sums until you have a guess ☺

[bennocelt]

Irish people tend to believe that political parties are full of crooks, but the lads in their own county aren't like the rest. Everyone is sure that in general FF are the party of the brown envelope and that the Shinners would know their way around a balaclava, "but we're lucky, the FF candidate here is the cousin of the owner of Kelly's Bar, and sure the SF candidate is a nice young woman with a young family so she would never have been involved in anything like that.".


I'll have a guess at...

FG 53
FF 39
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26


That local political thinking does my head in.

It is kind of funny, that we are in a "recovery", yet FG wont win a majority, says a lot about the economic realities of the country

Anyway let me give a guess!
FG 59
FF 32
SF 30
Lab 7
SD 3
R 2
AAA 5
Green 1
Others 30

[backstothewall]

Anyway let me give a guess!
FG 59
FF 32
SF 30
Lab 7
SD 3
R 2
AAA 5
Green 1
Others 30

I did my working out earlier in the campaign. But with the swing that looked like it was happening to FF I moved 5 out of the FG column and into the FF one. If I undo that i'm remarkably close to you

FG 58
FF 34
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26

With that last poll i'm actually happier with that. In all the polls showing a move to FF the movement was within the margin of error, and with that last poll I think it might all just have been a quirk. I don't think the campaign has changed anything tbh

I still think FF will get a bounce in terms of the number of votes they get but they have a lot to do to translate increased votes into seats. They'll need to get that 2nd seat in constituencies to make big gains which will be very difficult.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Anyway let me give a guess!
FG 59
FF 32
SF 30
Lab 7
SD 3
R 2
AAA 5
Green 1
Others 30

Typical Irish parties, sneaking in 11 extra seats for themselves.

[bennocelt]

Typical Irish parties, sneaking in 11 extra seats for themselves.

Really, lol. Well spotted. There might have been drink when i toted them up....:p

(or looking at it again..............OTHER includes SD 3, R 2,AAA 5 and the Green 1)

[bennocelt]

I did my working out earlier in the campaign. But with the swing that looked like it was happening to FF I moved 5 out of the FG column and into the FF one. If I undo that i'm remarkably close to you

FG 58
FF 34
SF 32
LAB 8
OTH 26

With that last poll i'm actually happier with that. In all the polls showing a move to FF the movement was within the margin of error, and with that last poll I think it might all just have been a quirk. I don't think the campaign has changed anything tbh

I still think FF will get a bounce in terms of the number of votes they get but they have a lot to do to translate increased votes into seats. They'll need to get that 2nd seat in constituencies to make big gains which will be very difficult.

I also did it a few weeks ago, and if i had to do it now, I would add a few more to FF, and less off SF..............the FF vote is somehow still alive and kicking.......

[backstothewall]

I'm think SF will hold up well this time. Tomorrow's Indo will have the usual 'Gerry Adams sells drus to kids' election day headline, but I suspect that is serving them well among voters who might be considering voting for them. INM and RTÉ are as much a part of the establishment as the '3 Amigos', and they jumped the shark with the Late Late last Friday.

People are ****ed at that establishment. And the establishment have made it so obvious that they can't stand SF that I think people will vote for them out of spite. It's a bit like Trump in that regard

[Dodge]

You keep saying "people" but the "people" have voted in a FG or FF government every single time this country has voted

They'll still be the top 2 parties this election too.

So the "people" are happy enough to see Adams and SF have their past dragged back up it seems

[Real ale Madrid]

People eh?

[backstothewall]

And they'll do the same again. But it'll probably take FF and FG together to keep the eh... populace in line this time. That's NEVER happened before.

It's another 5 years of the same old same old but there's hope for the next time. Something worthwhile could rise out of the ashes of Labour yet. They could break bread with SF once Adams retires and in 5 years time there could finally be a government who make a few changes.

I'm not even after revolutionary changes. But someone might just tell RTE that a national broadcaster stopping programing twice a day for the ****ing Angelus just isn't acceptable this century

[Macy]

People are ****ed at that establishment. And the establishment have made it so obvious that they can't stand SF that I think people will vote for them out of spite. It's a bit like Trump in that regard
Taking my previous caveats about the polls, SF are the only ones that have moved beyond the margin of error the whole campaign (maybe Labour have in one or two). "People" may be annoyed at the establishment, it doesn't look like they're moving to SF from other parties or undecideds.

Main problem for SF this time has been the economy, and Adams performance on it, rather than the (sometimes legitimate) criminality questions.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I got a letter in the door from Emmet Stagg this morning, announcing that new schools for the area are going to be approved "in 4 to 6 weeks". Every constituency analysis I've read has claimed he's as safe a seat as Labour has, so if he's pulling this kind of thing on the eve of the vote it must be looking really bad.

[BonnieShels]

I went through the constituencies one by one attempting not to be biased.

Seems I may be biased towards Labour.

FG: 55
FF: 33
SF: 25
LB: 16
SD: 3
RN: 3
Others: 23

[Real ale Madrid]

I came up with the following after going through each constituency on Paddy Power and taking the favorites to win a seat in each constituency. Eg 5 seater - I took the top 5 in the betting, 4 seater, top 4 and so on...

Fine Gael 55 (+1 C.C.) 56
Fianna Fail 40 *shudders
Sinn Fein 24
Labour 10
AAA / PBP 6
Social Democrats 3
Renua 1
Independents 18