The 2016 GE thread

[NeverFeltBetter]

Fianna Fail's O'Fearghail elected as Ceann Comhairle. Bit of a surprise, thought Maureen O'Sullivan would attract lots of transfers from opposition parties. For all the talk of Dail reform, Martin's FF were as well whipped on vote as Fine Gael and Sinn Fein.

[Stuttgart88]

What's the latest?

[BonnieShels]

Shadow boxing over. Enda resolves to have us Blueshirts crying into our porridge this morning. I hope he is being as cunning as I hope he is. I nearly got sick listening to the 7am news on Morning Ireland.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0407/780070-fine-gael-fianna-fail-talks/

[nigel-harps1954]

Get the polling stations ready again folks.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I assume they can't call an election again until the Seanad votes, right? That's the 26th of this month.

[BonnieShels]

FF played into FG's hands.

I can't actually believe it. They wouldn't even wait a few days to pretend to mull over it. Deeeeeeeelighted!

NFB, not sure about that. Gonna check.

EDIT: I'm being distracted by it as I have loads of work to do. There is no connection to a Dáil dissolution of the Seanad. So an election can be called tomorrow (under Presidential acceptance of course). However it can't be held any earlier than 25 "working" days after it's called, at which stage the 24th Seanad would have been elected. But the order for dissolving the Seanad is usually done at the same time as the Dáil.

So yeah, it'll have no bearing. Enda will be Taoiseach next week. And that will be that.

[culloty82]

I assume they can't call an election again until the Seanad votes, right? That's the 26th of this month.

No, the Seanad count would go ahead in the middle of the campaign, but it would immediately be dissolved, and a second Seanad election would be held 90 days after the second Dáil election!

[NeverFeltBetter]

That sounds like an awful muddle.

Honestly, it seems like FG's bare-faced presentation of an equal partnership to FF means they are resigned to an election, since they know FF would never accept such a deal. And FG minority government doesn't seem like something FG is yet willing to completely commit to.

But that being said, the only change I see in a second election would be for both FG and FF to lose seats.

[CraftyToePoke]

But that being said, the only change I see in a second election would be for both FG and FF to lose seats.

Would you see any one other party gaining significantly in a re run ?

Its hard to see a second election delivering anything more decisive going on how this one played out, would the country react significantly differently and who would be rewarded / punished if it did ?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm sure Sinn Fein would be in a position to win a few more, and SD's were reasonably close in a few other places outside of their sitting three in March.

I just think a lot of the softer FF/FG voters might get a bit annoyed at the last month of waffling and look elsewhere. They had the chance to make an agreement, and appear to have turned their noses up at the prospect. That doesn't scream electorally attractive behavior to me.

[BonnieShels]

That sounds like an awful muddle.

Honestly, it seems like FG's bare-faced presentation of an equal partnership to FF means they are resigned to an election, since they know FF would never accept such a deal. And FG minority government doesn't seem like something FG is yet willing to completely commit to.

But that being said, the only change I see in a second election would be for both FG and FF to lose seats.

If this is played correctly you could see FG gaining as they will and should position themselves as the "we did everything we could and FF ran away." Snakey Martin was at his odious best yesterday.

Realistically FF couldn't win anymore seats as a result... but then again we figured that at the last election in Feb that they couldn't do as well as they did.

If another GE is called the trickiest part will be how will Martin and Kenny play out still being leaders of their respective parties. Their positions almost certainly become untenable but how would that shift?

[osarusan]

FF would possibly lose a few seats and FG gain a few, but not enough to make much of a difference in terms of forming a government. Either/both leaders stepping down would have an impact also.

I don't think SF would pick up too many more seats, although they might rectify the screw-up in Donegal. Their 'we'll only be in govt as a majority partner so leave us out of negotiations' line will have grated with a few people and people will also recognise that a SF majority govt is a very very long way away.

Labour would have lost a lot of votes to SF and might win some back, and SD might pick up an extra seat or two.

I don't know how many politicians retired either before the election or after losing a seat, but that would come into play also.

You also have to wonder how much money the smaller parties and independents have for another campaign so soon.

[nigel-harps1954]

The only thing that will happen in a re-election is a record low voter turnout and one of FG or FF to gain enough seats to get into power as people don't bother their arses voting for anyone else out of a sense of 'sure my vote won't make a difference anyway'.

[NeverFeltBetter]

FG miniority government looking more likely: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-and-ff-agree-minority-government-the-only-show-in-town-1.2605715#.Vwsvqgp3hfs.twitter

Someone posited to me at the weekend that the President might have already told Kenny and Martin that he'll refuse to dissolve the Dail if asked, hence the willingness to keep talking.

[OwlsFan]

I'm sure Sinn Fein would be in a position to win a few more, and SD's were reasonably close in a few other places outside of their sitting three in March.

I just think a lot of the softer FF/FG voters might get a bit annoyed at the last month of waffling and look elsewhere. They had the chance to make an agreement, and appear to have turned their noses up at the prospect. That doesn't scream electorally attractive behavior to me.

And what about the independents who just want to be the hurlers on the ditch?

Hard to guess what a new election would bring. Would people see voting for independents means that there won't be a Government and thus vote for what they regard to be the lesser of the evils of the main parties? I would say that the FG vote has peaked, unless they get rid of Kenny, so the main winners might be FF with the apparently more popular Martin. Too early for Labour to claw back seats I'd say and their vote may permanently have shifted to SF like in the North where the SDLP were equally hard hit, albeit in different circumstances. So a new election may see more FF TDs but not enough to form a Government but who knows.

[bennocelt]

Just seen 20/1 for a minority FF gov on first of Jan 2017, with PP...............just before i read your post Owlsfan!:D

[NeverFeltBetter]

It doesn't seem likely that FG will support FF's suspension of the water charges for five years idea - though it's the kind of kick the can move I'm sure the parties would love - so I don't see how a government can be agreed upon, unless Fianna Fail row back on the issue to such an extent that their electoral chances take a serious drubbing.

There's a debate to have on the legality of scrapping, suspending, altering the water charges, and I wonder if FF is starting to think they can't win it. They might prefer to go back to the polls and win as many seats as possible as an anti-water charge party before dealing with the legal reality.

[OwlsFan]

Are they not anti-water charge already?

[NeverFeltBetter]

They are for the moment. The EU might well have made their stance irrelevant already.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Looks like we might get a government out of this Dail after all. That purported water charge agreement is classic "Let's deal with it later" political maneuvering, that doesn't solve the issue at all, but it's enough of a climbdown from both parties that they can get past it. I'm sure some FG backbenchers/Labour and dozens of government TD's who lost their seats will be livid.

[BonnieShels]

Looks like we might get a government out of this Dail after all. That purported water charge agreement is classic "Let's deal with it later" political maneuvering, that doesn't solve the issue at all, but it's enough of a climbdown from both parties that they can get past it. I'm sure some FG backbenchers/Labour and dozens of government TD's who lost their seats will be livid.

Alan Kelly went for it in the chamber this afternoon.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I honestly don't see how FG backbenchers/party membership can be happy with the whole thing. Water charges was the hill they were told to die on for the election, now Kenny and the leadership have rolled over to get a minority government the old enemy can end any time it wants.

[OwlsFan]

I honestly don't see how FG backbenchers/party membership can be happy with the whole thing. Water charges was the hill they were told to die on for the election, now Kenny and the leadership have rolled over to get a minority government the old enemy can end any time it wants.

Were the water charges such a negative vote destroyer for Fine Gael? I wouldn't have thought so. I think they were just regarded by most (not the anti-water charge jihadists) as just one tax too much and some people said enough. By past Fine Gael standards, they didn't actually do too badly and about average since 1987 (ignoring the big increase in the last election due to Fianna Fail incompetence). What screwed them this time was the collapse of Labour who bore the brunt of the anti- austerity vote as they were the perceived defender of the lower paid/unemployed who pro rata got the worst of the austerity measures.

[nigel-harps1954]

So...we have a government then. It only took two and a half months.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Thomas Pringle said today that Fianna Fail basically control both sides of the house now, which is crazy.

Shane Ross says he's Minister for Transport. Can't wait to see him try and deal with the unions.

[BonnieShels]

Thomas Pringle said today that Fianna Fail basically control both sides of the house now, which is crazy.

Shane Ross says he's Minister for Transport. Can't wait to see him try and deal with the unions.

Oh dear God. So that's that for Public Transport.

[NeverFeltBetter]

From RTE:


Social Protection - Leo Varadkar
Finance - Michael Noonan
Public Expenditure and Reform - Paschal Donohoe
Jobs - Mary Mitchell O'Connor
Agriculture - Michael Creed
Justice - Frances Fitzgerald
Children - Katherine Zappone
Health - Simon Harris
Foreign Affairs - Charlie Flanagan
Education & Skills - Richard Bruton
Housing - Simon Coveney
Communications - Denis Naughten
Transport - Shane Ross
Regional Development, Rural Affairs and Arts and Culture - Heather Humphreys
Defence - The Taoiseach with Paul Kehoe as Minister of State with Special Responsibility for Defence
Finian McGrath is the Super Junior who will attend Cabinet and have special responsibility for disability.


Varadker will have been all over the place by the time he becomes FG leader/Taoiseach. I wonder if no-one else wants a shot at Finance. Not sure what Zappone will actually be able to do in that role. Defence portfolio further marginalised.

[nigel-harps1954]

Zappone might be a good shout in that role actually. Could be an interesting move, but she'll need the backing of the two parties to actually implement any decent changes in the area.

[dahamsta]

2017 posts moved here:

http://foot.ie/threads/227045-General-Election-2017