The 2016 GE thread

[NeverFeltBetter]

The United Left Alliance doesn't exist anymore. Who's that?

[Real ale Madrid]

The United Left Alliance doesn't exist anymore. Who's that?

Clare Daly - I'll change that. Jees.

[BonnieShels]

So I voted all the way down to 6. That's was surprising.

Gave SD my 1st pref as my second is a shoe-in.

Also voted for an SF candidate for the first time ever.

(Not including my 2nd pref for Marty in the presidential.)

[nigel-harps1954]

Went down to 5 myself, and the 5th was a last minute decision.

Apparently turnout is only totalled around 57%, which is a terrible shame.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Exit poll indicates huge drop for Fine Gael, big rise for Fianna Fail, disaster for Labour, expected gains for Sinn Fein, monster "Independent/Other" vote. FG/FF only viable coalition, and can't see it happening.

[BonnieShels]

23% for FF

What sort of retarded bunch of cretins are we?

[SkStu]

Parochial, insular, I'm alright Jack, cronyist bullsh1t. Couldn't believe what I was reading tonight. Ireland deserves everything it gets.

[placid casual]

i'd be very surprised if FF (aka an Ireland for all my cronies) got much support in the general dublin area.
The FF problem lies outside the capital

[nigel-harps1954]

Almost feel like it's time to emigrate.

[BonnieShels]

i'd be very surprised if FF (aka an Ireland for all my cronies) got much support in the general dublin area.
The FF problem lies outside the capital

Unfortunately there's a rake of people outside of Dublin.

I'm out of here at grad. Feck it!

It's like marrying your abuser. We need to rename Stockholm Syndrome. The bank robbers had nothing on what we do to ourselves.

[Real ale Madrid]

Unfortunately there's a rake of people outside of Dublin.

I'm out of here at grad. Feck it!

It's like marrying your abuser. We need to rename Stockholm Syndrome. The bank robbers had nothing on what we do to ourselves.

I've never voted FF but thats a bit much - FG and FF are one and the same - good to see them combined at less than 50% - thats a bit of progress I think

[BonnieShels]

But they're not one and the same. Regardless of policy similarities that people consistently seem to argue, FF are doing what they always do and on the back of the last election and the preceding 3 years and all that came out since and it mattered not a jot.

It's mind boggling. I just can't get my head around how people saw FF as a positive option.

[backstothewall]

So what happens now?

Kenny out. Adams out. Try again in the summer?

[Real ale Madrid]

Burton out first surely - Kenny will be under pressure - Adams no id say.

[backstothewall]

I could see Adams resigning on Easter Monday.

This Michael Collins guy in Cork. Is he any relation to the other one?

[bennocelt]

But they're not one and the same. Regardless of policy similarities that people consistently seem to argue, FF are doing what they always do and on the back of the last election and the preceding 3 years and all that came out since and it mattered not a jot.

It's mind boggling. I just can't get my head around how people saw FF as a positive option.

TBF Bonnie there isnt a whole lot between them................

[NeverFeltBetter]

I look forward to the 33rd Dail being helmed by Taoiseach Varadker, Tanaiste Kelly and Opposition leader McDonald.

Seriously though, when I first started voting ten years ago, I used to get really annoyed at candidates/supporters who lost blaming the "stupid" electorate for not knowing what was good for them. But ten years of watching poll results in this country, with a few exceptions, has shown me that a huge chunk of the Irish electorate - that I do think is very slowly getting smaller - have no idea how to rationally select candidates. Letting Fianna Fail off the hook so quickly is jaw-dropping to me.

The big news in Limerick was Sinn Fein finally getting Maurice Quinlivan over the line, and even with my antipathy towards Sinn Fein I have to give him credit. I wasn't surprised, but still strange seeing it. I think bigger news was Jan O'Sullivan hanging on, which is a minor miracle as far as I'm concerned.

In other news, hard to see Renua surviving as an an entity: as politically relevant now as the Christian Democrats, Identity Ireland or Fis Nua. Soc Dems will only retain their three and get no more, which is still a success, came very close in Dublin Central. Glad to see the Greens get representation again. God knows if the country can forgive Fianna Fail, we can forgive them, who had way less to do with the disaster.

[osarusan]

Somebody described the FF vote as an abused spouse crawling back to their abuser... quite a good analogy
I think.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The livebloggers at the Leinster Leader (http://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/203335/-GE16--LIVE-from-the.html) - who were abused by FF'ers yesterday when they didn't applaud Kildare South's Sean O'Fearghail being elected - had the following to say this morning, which I think is apt:


We’re a funny sort of voting nation.

We’re better at disliking people than liking them, so we tend to vote with revenge in our hearts rather than inspiration.

Often times if you managed to get elected, it's not because you're great - it's because you weren't somebody else. Some day it'll be your turn to be the wrong one.

We’re more likely to remember those who did things to us than did things for us, because eaten bread is soon forgotten.

We really don’t like people with grand visions or idealism. We all think we do, but the parties who do best will always be the least idealistic and most centrist.

If they move too far in any direction, we get a bit nervy. We prefer the fixers to the builders, evolution over revolution.

We like being told we’re great, and we don’t like being told we’re whingers, regardless of the truth in either sentiment.

Above all, we like people who are a nicer, more competent and more hardworking version of ourselves - people who are dead sound, can speak well, be well groomed, buy a round, answer the phone at 4 in the morning and fix every pothole worth fixing.

Good luck with that!

[backstothewall]

The latest talk seems to be that FF will abstain if Kenny is nominated as Taoiseach. Depending on how it all finishes up he will need a few independents to get him over the line assuming the various leftist parties all vote against him.

There's going to be motorways from Killarney and Dingle to Tralee JHR International Airport.

[Macy]

Turns out our shy Tories were shy FFer's. Mind boggling election results - the more elections I live through, the less convinced by democracy I am!

Inevitable that the blueshirts will, in fairness to them the same as they always do, put the "National Interest" first and pay the consequences whilst the rest of them fall over themselves to avoid making any decisions and hurl from the ditch. No reason it couldn't be a minority FF or SF administration. Actually, if FF and FG could work together on that one - say they'll support a SF minority on a case by case basis, that would be interesting!

[backstothewall]

How does private members legislation work in the Dáil? I'm assuming it normally doesn't go anywhere because the government have a mechanism to kill it like in most jurisdictions but in this Dáil who knows what could happen.

Votes for 16 year olds and the legalisation of cannabis jump to mind as possibilities all of a sudden

[dahamsta]

I had a rough week this week, and didn't have time to do any research on this, bar 10 mins on the bog with the SF manifesto. For the 2nd time in my life I considered not voting, although this was the first time I really meant it. I told my wife that unless she told me how to vote, I wasn't going, and ended up voting for her party preferences, barely looking at the names of the candidates. Her preferences were driven almost entirely by manifesto promises for funding that would help her career.

I realise that this is a little reckless, but I believe it's still better to vote than not. But it's heartbreaking. I hate it, it all feels utterly futile.

[BonnieShels]

As the dust settles the more and more I am coming around to the idea of FG just standing back and allowing the rest to go for it. It would last a wet weekend. And boom we go back to FG and Labour and some stability.

Gives FG the opportunity to replace Kenny without any sort of heave and the mess that that could cause.

[Macy]

Tried to edit my post but managed to delete it on my phone last night, so while I won't retype that stream of tripe, I'll try again with my saliant point...

Really getting peed off with the SF's stance that they have no policy commonality with FF or FG. Yet, they're stated position before the election was not that they would not enter Government with FF or FG, just that they wouldn't do as a minority party. So which is it, is it policy differences that prevent coalition for FF or is naked opportunism? They're expressly putting party interest ahead of National Interest. If only we had a sophisticated enough electorate to see it!

I'm still hoping for FF and FG to call SF's bluff, and abstain on the inevitable vote of Adams as Taoiseach on the 10th March. Let them lead the minority Government, and make some hard calls and see how they get on. Ahead of 1918, FF and FG should put them in, to get them out!

[backstothewall]

It doesn't seem fair to critisise SF or any party for that matter for doing exactly what they said they would do during the campaign.

This needs some sort of emergency government to be set up until another election later in the year to sort it out.

[Real ale Madrid]

. If only we had a sophisticated enough electorate to see it!


Thank God we have you then to show the electorate the error of its ways!

FF on the radio this morning about Dail reform - classic!

[Macy]

It doesn't seem fair to critisise SF or any party for that matter for doing exactly what they said they would do during the campaign.

This needs some sort of emergency government to be set up until another election later in the year to sort it out.
It's the hypocrisy of trying to blame policy differences now - the policy differences would still be there if they were the larger party, but they'd do business then. They're not even trying to pull the "this was our position before the election" excuse anymore - they're running with the policy difference excuse.

Besides, FF, FG, SF all had a position of no coalition with each other before the election, so why should FF and FG be the ones to "break their promise" whilst SF get to hold their line?

[Real ale Madrid]

SF don't have the numbers to go in with either of FF or FG anyway so its a moot point - the only coalition is FF / FG - they should just get on with it now.

[backstothewall]

why should FF and FG be the ones to "break their promise" whilst SF get to hold their line?

They shouldn't. They should go back to the people. This time the right should do what the parties on the left did the last time and agree a common 'right 2 change' style set of policies, put them to the people against the 'right 2 change' platform, and see what verdict the electorate give.

Or if Martin wants to be Taoiseach that badly all he has to do is sign up the R2C and a coalition with SF & AAA-PBP will follow. I'd recommend the former over the latter though

[BonnieShels]

The pro-FF elements in the media were in full swing the last two days trying to force the notion that the country voted resoundingly to get rid of "this most unpopular of governments.

Simple thing though, FG were so unpopular that they somehow managed to bag most seats in the Dáil and were unlucky to not have a couple more. They have "slipped" to their historical level of 50-ish seats. Meanwhile Mickey Martin is being hailed as a genius for getting FF up to 40-ish.

I really hope FG stick to their guns and allow the rest to work it out. Because it could mean the destruction of the party if they don't. The gall of FF lecturing everyone is precisely why I was losing my mind on Saturday as the result rolled in.

Enda was meant to have asked the cabinet for permission to go talk to some of the smaller parties to form of government. I think he should be seen to do this in full knowledge that it will be unsuccessful; resign and then have a new leader (Coveney, Leo) in charge for GE16.2/GE17.1 That's the nightmare scenario for FF. Especially with a cataclysmic financial meltdown on the way (see China).

[backstothewall]

Out of curiosity. How do people think a 2nd election would go if Leo Varadkar, M.L. McDonald & Alan Kelly were leading their respective parties?

[BonnieShels]

It all depends on how the second one come about. If FG/FF for example caused it by refusing to go into coalition with the other then that party would be ravaged.

Labour would be boosted by the lack of stability.

SF will be boosted by the whole; "sure none of them can be trusted to form a government".

I think this can be played very well by FG if they're patient. Though that patience would be tested by EK remaining as leader.

I think my scenario in my last post where EK goes unsuccessfully to other parties to form a coalition would put them in prime position to return as the largest party.

[Mr A]

Not a chance Kelly will lead Labour, think he's pretty toxic. I could be completely wrong. McDonald leading SF would boost them as Adams performs weakly in campaigns and his past is very problematic. Varadkar is an interesting one. He'd certainly be better than Fitzgerald who I don't rate at all and performs well in the media. Could be good for them.

[BonnieShels]

Not a chance Kelly will lead Labour, think he's pretty toxic. I could be completely wrong. McDonald leading SF would boost them as Adams performs weakly in campaigns and his past is very problematic. Varadkar is an interesting one. He'd certainly be better than Fitzgerald who I don't rate at all and performs well in the media. Could be good for them.

Him or Coveney. But Coveney comes across less smug. Plus he's Martin's constituency rival so he could directly attack him.

[Real ale Madrid]

Kelly will almost certainly attempt to get the party leadership - and its not as if Labour has a massive parliamentary party from which to garner votes.

[backstothewall]

Is there a possibility that Burton toughs this out?

[Mr A]

Howlin surely the obvious choice for Labour after his poll topping performance?

[backstothewall]

Howlin surely the obvious choice for Labour after his poll topping performance?

Was a lot of that to do with him funnelling millions of euro to projects in his own constituency though. If you Google 'Brendan Howlin Wexford projects' you'll see what I mean. €400m for the M11. €7.5m for Johnstown Castle. €20m for Wexford hospital. A new secondary school building. A refurbishment for Wexford Courthouse.

I mean god help any politician who couldn't top the poll after that.

[Macy]

Some of that on Howlin is a bit harsh (and I definitely wouldn't be his biggest fan) - the N11 that has and is being upgraded is part of the Belfast to Rosslare Project, and had some of the worst roads (statistics wise) in the state! Howlin may get it this time as there's feck all left!

Can't see it being Varadker for FG - Fitzgerald or Coveney. I was quite impressed with Coveney as to how he handled the flooding. Whether it's the reality or not, he comes across as a safe pair of hands (there was one debate with Barry Cowen in the campaign on the radio, and regardless of the rights or wrongs of their arguments, if you were only half listening Coveney sounded right!)

McDonald I would say is quite divisive to be honest. Again, as we saw with Burton, presentation is important, and my anecdotal evidence is she rubs people up the wrong way. Pearse Doherty probably the front runner, if it's a free stater.

[osarusan]

Coveney comes across quite well I think.

[backstothewall]

I'm not suggesting there was anything untoward about any of those projects happening. But whether there was or not if you get that many photos in the local paper of yourself holding shovels and cutting ribbons it creates an impression that you are bringing home the bacon for Dublin.

It'll definitely be a free stater in SF. The DNA of shinners in the North is that Dublin is the capital of Ireland. Dail Eireann is the national parliament and that is where the leader should be. They won't have another leader from the North until their northern MPS are allowed to sit in the Dail

[Kingdom]

I've read a lot of the posts here, and it's somewhat encouraging to read a lot of people with similar thoughts or feelings to what I'd feel myself.

I'm a constituent in Dublin South Central, and before that Laois/Offaly. I would never have been hugely interested in politics, and while I wouldn't have followed a family vote or anything like that, we did have a very strong connection to Labour Party and to the trade union movement through my father and grandfather; Labour-leaning is probably my background. Even though I was out of Dublin (vote-wise) for the guts of 10 years, I'd have kept an eye on what was going on locally.
The first thing that concerned me about my constituency was the calibre of the candidates: Atrocious. They fell into two catagories: Inexperienced or weak links in their parties.

Collins (R2C)
Smith (PBP)
Ardagh (FF)
O'Snodaigh (SF)
Byrne (FG)
Byrne (LAB)

Coyne (SD)
O'hAlmhain (GP)
Dargan (RA)
Devine (SF)

I've been really enthused by the Social Democrats, to the point that I'd nearly consider supporting them formally. Every politician will have flaws, but for me how Shorthall, Donnelly and Murphy have gone about their business has been great to see. I met the local candidate a few times out and about and it was obvious to see that he's inexperienced. He appears to be prepared to go the circuitous route via the local elections - something a few of the other candidates didn't/hadn't considered, which was alarming.
I feel sorry for Enda Kenny. There I've said it. He's not a leader in the sense that Haughey was, or in the way that Cameron is in England. He's definitely a chairman type. I think individually if you look at who he's appointed, they've worked. Howlin has been brilliant at DPER. Coveney is extremely well-regarded in Ag; to me Paschal Donohue has been excellent as Transport and Sport minister (however bizarre that partnership might be).

I really cannot see why they have suffered in the way that they have, or why those who voted for them have now left for either independents or FF? The single biggest positive change to my life, was introduced by the present govt, with the introduction of under 6's free gp care. My 4 kids have auto-immune issues, and the associated problems means were in the GP at least once a week. We're not rich, but we're over the means test limit. That single change has meant a huge amount to me, and is the difference between having some spare change at the end of the week or not. That's enough for me.

I do not feel sorry for Joan Burton, but do feel sorry for some of those in Labour. I despise her - for rational and irrational reasons. The rot was setting in with Labour as soon as they decided to govern. I don't begrudge them doing it, but once they decided not to back Roisin Shorthall when she disputed what Reilly was doing on moral grounds, then their hands were tied. Gilmore and Burton's greed/lust for power has killed the younger candidates who were always going to struggle in the face of a staunch left challenge in their constituencies from PBP/AAA/R2C. I've listened to enough soundbytes from people like Ciara Conway (who really gave a very good breakdown of her own personal plan for childcare), Joanna Tuffy - even O'Riordan at times - but they've been killed by the likes of Kelly and a couple of others. Fergus Finlay and someone else rightly pointed out on air and in print, that Labour need to completely rebuild, with Finlay in particular suggesting anyone involved in the leadership in the last decade be ruled out of leading the party. That would be a start. I can see Howlin acting as leader until the next general election is called this year, and they'll take it from there. I hope they can properly rebuild, but they have a huge battle now with People before Profit (in the urban areas anyway).

I was really looking forward to this election. I was anticipating something of a revolution in terms of seat outcome. However I was very upset at seeing the votes coming in. Part of me would have been excited to see what would happen with the Shinners and the left in charge. On the upside, I'm delighted Renua failed. I'm delighted the Greens are back. The country could do with a strong green party. I'd have no problem with a FG government supported by Social Democrats, the Greens and Labour. I abhor independents, no more so than in the motherland, where for some reason those two spastics could have elected a 3rd wheel such was the size of their vote.

I voted
SD
FG
GP
PBP

[Macy]

Not that he needed it, but Donnelly was a good bit down my list due to a few issues I've thought he individually, and the SD's as a party, have been hypocritical on. I guess I would be the disaffected Labour voter they would be aimed at.

Personally, I won't vote for any party that says they'll get rid of Water Charges (which is different from doing something about Irish Water, if you believe that is a flawed organisation). It was a measure to broaden the tax base, it puts us in line with other countries, and is actually an equality measure within Ireland given the numbers that already paid for water through group schemes and well/ wastewater treatment systems. There's a large cohort of the anti water protestors who this is the only real contribution they've been asked to make!

I've yet to hear anything radical from anyone - there were very few genuine reforms offered. For example, whilst I am 100% a believer in the welfare state, but at this stage all payments (not just those "in work" benefits) should be taxable, with additional services (such as the medical card, travel pass) given a BIK value. This would actually help the (still vast majority) genuine claimants. Social Welfare should be merged with Revenue as well, so it has the same powers and burden of proof, get rid of ridiculous "Data Protection Issues" for departments sharing information. Making it taxable would also help get rid of the welfare trap if it does exist, as payments would be able to continue whilst people return to work. It would get away from the all or nothing that too often happens now.

[Kingdom]

Another thing: why has RTE, and also it seems the public, somehow found it acceptable to give airtime to Messrs Ahern, Ahern, Dempsey and Coughlan?
While old FF as a group absolutely disgusts me, I have a certain amount of respect for the likes of Eamon O'Cuiv and indeed Sean Haughey, who continued to plough on in the wilderness, particularly when they themselves are seemingly disliked within the party. O'Cuiv actually contributed some decent balanced opinion at the weekend, when the easiest thing to do would have been to ride the wave like Martin and a few others.

When the proverbial hit the fan, Dermot Ahern, Coughlan and Dempsey despite being young enough choose to bugger off into the sunset and not seek re-election. Now that the tide has turned they decide to re-emerge. Disgusting, and the pussies in RTE facilitated it.

[OwlsFan]

When the proverbial hit the fan, Dermot Ahern, Coughlan and Dempsey despite being young enough choose to bugger off into the sunset and not seek re-election. Now that the tide has turned they decide to re-emerge. Disgusting, and the pussies in RTE facilitated it.

I am not sure it's the job of the national broadcaster to isolate voices because they screwed up in the past. Is everyone not entitled to a voice. If every politician who made a mess of things wasn't permitted on the airwaves, they'd be really stuck for someone to interview,

[jbyrne]

I am not sure it's the job of the national broadcaster to isolate voices because they screwed up in the past. Is everyone not entitled to a voice. If every politician who made a mess of things wasn't permitted on the airwaves, they'd be really stuck for someone to interview,

but these clowns made a complete mess of things and then hid for 5 years. now that FF are making a recovery in the polls they re-emerge to give us their nougats of wisdom. they are cowards

[Kingdom]

I am not sure it's the job of the national broadcaster to isolate voices because they screwed up in the past. Is everyone not entitled to a voice. If every politician who made a mess of things wasn't permitted on the airwaves, they'd be really stuck for someone to interview,

Of course, and in the post you cropped to quote, I complimented their ex-colleagues for having the balls to keep going. But it was the absolute gougerist way in which they scuttled off stage left, and then strode back on stage right when the storm has passed.
When you look at some of the high-profile personalities in Montrose and their connections to that party, it really is not a stretch to suggest they are Fianna Fail friendly.

[OwlsFan]

What I commented on was your criticism of RTE for giving them airtime. I agree with everything you and jbyrne say about them but that doesn't mean RTE shouldn't interview them now when they have dared to put their heads above the parapets again.

[BonnieShels]

Coveney comes across quite well I think.

That once may have been true. But Jesus, he's having an awful week.

Leo for Leoder.