View Full Version : 2011 Presidential Election- Start of Campaign Poll
I really don't know how it will all play out, to be honest. He had such a lead he could afford to lose some of it, but he must be pretty transfer repellant at this stage. You'd expect Norris to go to Higgins. FG will go to Higgins, any waverers will have made up their minds. Gallagher has really attacked the shinners, so you'd think they'll go to Higgins. I guess there's time for further damage too, online and in the papers. It will be a very interesting 1st count!
Real ale Madrid
26/10/2011, 3:16 PM
If the snap Poll according to Ray Darcy is any way accurate for the front 2 - you would have to think the Higgins is home and hosed.
dahamsta
26/10/2011, 3:40 PM
Dodge, spudulika, enough.
TrapAPony
26/10/2011, 3:45 PM
1 McGuinness
2 Higgins
7 Gallagher
If the snap Poll according to Ray Darcy is any way accurate for the front 2 - you would have to think the Higgins is home and hosed.
particuarly given the demographics of the show, and the apparent demographics of gallagher's votes
If he had any chance of a victory you'd expect him to romp home in that one. But it was a text in vote so we'll see how accurate it is on on Friday
On transfers I think Higgins is far more friendly, but Gallagher should pick up 'not voting for a party' votes from Davis and Dana
In 1990 Lenihan got 44.1% of first preferences while Robison got 38.9%. Robinson got 75% of Austin Currie's transfers
geysir
27/10/2011, 10:28 AM
There's a delicate balance of saying just enough to cast aspersions on the presidential quality of your opponents without alienating their support, in order to have a good chance of getting their 2nd and 3rd preference vote.
I´d say Michael D has excelled in that department, relatively speaking of course.
pineapple stu
27/10/2011, 11:06 AM
Four full page ads from Micheál D in today's Metro. Didn't think that was allowed? Isn't there a media moratorium from 2pm yesterday?
I´d say Michael D has excelled in that department, relatively speaking of course.
Still wouldn't put money on a result, but even yesterday morning he was playing it great - along the lines of if he's elected that will be the end of matters (obviously implying they'd be more to come with Gallagher).
Incidentally Varadker was out with a subtle one as well, a throw away comment about the damage it would do if a president was impeached.
Real ale Madrid
27/10/2011, 11:13 AM
The moratorium is only for radio and TV afaik - anyone know why there is a moratorium anyway ?
Four full page ads from Micheál D in today's Metro. Didn't think that was allowed? Isn't there a media moratorium from 2pm yesterday?
Only broadcast media, regulated by the BAI. All the paper's running with stuff. Examiner have that photo!
BonnieShels
27/10/2011, 12:27 PM
Only broadcast media, regulated by the BAI. All the paper's running with stuff. Examiner have that photo!
What photo?
What photo?
Hugh Morgan and Biffo, at the €5,000 a head dinner that has Gallagher busted.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/racetothearas/analysis/too-close-to-call-as-public-cast-their-votes-172028.html
Hugh Morgan and Biffo, at the €5,000 a head dinner that has Gallagher busted.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/images/tile/2011/1027/1224306562222_1.jpg?ts=1319674584
Kingdom
27/10/2011, 2:12 PM
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/images/tile/2011/1027/1224306562222_1.jpg?ts=1319674584
What a country!
BonnieShels
27/10/2011, 2:25 PM
The beautiful people, the beautiful people.
Magicme
27/10/2011, 5:05 PM
Monaghan and Cavan polling above the average at 6pm this evening with both counties in and around 30%.
culloty82
27/10/2011, 8:05 PM
Galway and Dublin also reporting high turnouts, so swings and roundabouts, it seems.
geysir
27/10/2011, 8:27 PM
Monaghan and Cavan polling above the average at 6pm this evening with both counties in and around 30%.
Cross border traffic :)
mypost
28/10/2011, 1:11 AM
The moratorium is only for radio and TV afaik - anyone know why there is a moratorium anyway ?
Tradition.
Of course it was brought in decades ago, when everyone voted on the same day. Now that isn't the case, for the islanders that vote ahead of everyone else. It should be scrapped altogether on those grounds.
Of course it was brought in decades ago, when everyone voted on the same day. Now that isn't the case, for the islanders that vote ahead of everyone else. It should be scrapped altogether on those grounds.
I'm surprised it's a relatively recent phenomenon that the islanders vote early, given it's to make sure their votes get back to the mainland. When did they first vote early?
Anyone regulated by the BAI has to observe the moratorium - it's a regulatory requirement, not a tradition. According to the BAI...
The moratorium has two objectives:-
It is an additional mechanism to ensure that fairness, objectivity and impartiality are achieved by the broadcast media during this critical period in the polling process, and;
It allows voters a period for reflection in the final stages of an election campaign.
Our media has so many agenda's (Witness newstalk doing budget broadcasts), that I don't have that much of a problem with it. Maybe if the BAI got their act together on all broadcasters it could be looked at, but as things stand the BAI only seem interested in RTE in my opinion (never enforcing TV3's licence conditions, the recent mess they've made of RTE's DTT proposals (especially who they accepted submissions from!), allowing communicorp to sow up the national commercial stations). And to bring that back to the presidential election - how long has Mary Davis been on the BAI board?
bennocelt
28/10/2011, 8:56 AM
Early news feed from rte -0951 With all seven boxes tallied in Sean Gallagher's home town of Blackrock in Louth - the predictions are that Michael D Higgins is beating him 2:1
So even in his own hometown, wow that's interesting
Spudulika
28/10/2011, 10:04 AM
Very disappointed with what I witnessed yesterday and almost wonder if it was planned by the meeja (and whoever they've chosen to win) to take the wind from voters. I got home, went in to vote and from my family was the only person to do so - my Dad and Mam never miss a vote, but they both were going for Gallagher but said (both of them) that they were disillusioned. Not one of my former colleagues voted, of 20-30 others I asked, even back at the airport, nobody voted. I was lucky to be able to vote 4 times (By-election, 2 referenda and the Presidential election). It just felt depressing - not even all the Christmas sales and decorations could make me feel good.
(but after waking up and listening to the Aussies get a thumping, I feel a little better)
pineapple stu
28/10/2011, 10:10 AM
So you reckon it's the media's fault your family and friends didn't vote? Interesting theory.
I turned down the chance to vote twice yesterday, but I wonder how many were in the same boat as me. Could vote in my constituency and my parents'. Wonder how many were in the same boat?
Edit - to follow on from bennocelt's post, this is on Aertel -
Early tallies indicate that Micheál D Higgins is set to top the poll and become the next President.
Independent Seán Gallagher is leading in only a handful of constituencies.
Mr Higgins will top the poll in the vast majority, and should easily be elected on transfers.
So is it the case that, in the pre-election polls, Higgins' votes were from the reliable grey vote, while Gallagher's supporters just didn't bother?
Aertel goes on -
Martin McGuinness looks set to come in a strong third, and will most likely be followed by David Norris.
But it is a dismal day for Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell, whose vote has collapsed, and for Mary Davis and Dana Rosemary Scallon.
Very early indications suggest the referendum on Oireachtas Inquiries may be defeated
Link here (http://www.rte.ie/aertel/104-01.html), but it'll change over the course of the day.
Very disappointed with what I witnessed yesterday and almost wonder if it was planned by the meeja (and whoever they've chosen to win) to take the wind from voters. I got home, went in to vote and from my family was the only person to do so - my Dad and Mam never miss a vote, but they both were going for Gallagher but said (both of them) that they were disillusioned.
Voter apathy is not the media's fault - if anything they give this election undue attention given the role it plays. If they're disillusioned with what happened the last few days, then you should blame Gallagher.
As it happens, turnout is up on the last presidential election, so if apathy was the intention, that was a major fail by the media.
So is it the case that, in the pre-election polls, Higgins' votes were from the reliable grey vote, while Gallagher's supporters just didn't bother?
Well there was a lot of talk in my work place, about who exactly was voting for Gallagher, as out of 10-15 people only one knew someone admitting to it. So I'd have to question the reliability of the polls, certainly in identifying those that really intended to vote. I'm sure he lost some, as witnessed above, but whether he was ever that high I'm not sure.
Dodge
28/10/2011, 10:34 AM
Very disappointed with what I witnessed yesterday and almost wonder if it was planned by the meeja (and whoever they've chosen to win) to take the wind from voters.
What were some of the planned actions which you believe helped 'take the wind from voters'?
I got home, went in to vote and from my family was the only person to do so - my Dad and Mam never miss a vote, but they both were going for Gallagher but said (both of them) that they were disillusioned.
Disillusioned with gallagher or the media?
bennocelt
28/10/2011, 10:47 AM
Saying on news feed that the referendum bill on oireachtas bill might be defeated, wow, thats great
1129 David McCullagh: Very early indications suggest the referendum on Oireachtas inquiries may be defeated
Saying on news feed that the referendum bill on oireachtas bill might be defeated, wow, thats great
1129 David McCullagh: Very early indications suggest the referendum on Oireachtas inquiries may be defeated
Bankers (including Sutherland and Gleeson) and former politicians (including McDowell) can breath a bit easier. For the time being at least.
Dodge
28/10/2011, 11:00 AM
Bankers (including Sutherland and Gleeson) and former politicians (including McDowell) can breath a bit easier. For the time being at least.
Only one man to blame for it, the guy who drafted the bill and tried to get it through without any sort of debate on it. In most countries Shatter would have to resign for his handling of this.
Only one man to blame for it, the guy who drafted the bill and tried to get it through without any sort of debate on it. In most countries Shatter would have to resign for his handling of this.
Whilst he certainly didn't help matters with his reactionary commentary (on anything and everything), the one thing he was he was right on was the AG's letter and that's what he seems to be blamed most for. No surprise he seemed to be parked, and Howlin took over the media responsibilities in the final few days.
bennocelt
28/10/2011, 11:08 AM
As Dodge said, just the manner it was presented to the people, if in doubt vote no tends to be the way these things sometimes work.
BonnieShels
28/10/2011, 11:24 AM
As Dodge said, just the manner it was presented to the people, if in doubt vote no tends to be the way these things sometimes work.
That's the way things should work.
I voted yes and explained it as best I could to those around me with the caveat that .if they still weren't sure that they should vote no.
It can always be ran again.
geysir
28/10/2011, 1:05 PM
As Dodge said, just the manner it was presented to the people, if in doubt vote no tends to be the way these things sometimes work.
If in doubt vote no, but it was definitely a confused doubt for me, when I heard McDowell vehemently urging a no vote.
Well done to Michael D, I think he will do alright.
I trust he doesn't get involved in the role of "selling Ireland" and I look forward to his active presidency in promoting a citizenship based on equality, respect, solidarity and participation for Travellers.
geezer
28/10/2011, 4:26 PM
It will be great to welcome our president back to Galway officially next friday in front of 5000 for the play off, i hope Roddy behaves
Spudulika
28/10/2011, 5:38 PM
The whole Presidential fiasco was a wonderful media circus, it happily deflected attention from what should have been looked at with real scrutiny - the 2 amendments, more money leaked into banks and how Ireland stoically continues to pay debts while others get off quite a bit. In my opinion the media made such a mockery of it all (okay, the candidates didn't help) that many solid voters just couldn't be bothered. Most people had better things to do, but that doesn't explain it all. Good luck to the winner, there are far worse places to spend 7 restful years.
I appear to have missed all your posts on those subjects too, spud.
btw The money going to the banks and the greek deal has had plenty of coverage. Sure they had nothing else to talk about yesterday! And as a second btw, the commentary on it was incredibly simplistic - so even if it did have more coverage I'm not sure the general public is/was that informed.
Congratulations to the winner of the Irish Presidential elections..... Dungeon Master
http://zentron.s-hosting.co.uk/Images/Dungeon_Master_Profile.jpg
Spudulika
29/10/2011, 5:34 AM
Congratulations to the winner of the Irish Presidential elections..... Dungeon Master
http://zentron.s-hosting.co.uk/Images/Dungeon_Master_Profile.jpg
Nice :-)
Well, the luvvies got their man, especially after the implosion of David Norris, so we're set for 7 years of establishment nodding dog. I'm surprised at how much support Gallagher got in the end, even in transfers. And Labour get the extra seat in Dublin West to boot. We'll never learn.
Acornvilla
29/10/2011, 8:29 AM
I just find it incredibly annoying that these votes can't be done over a weekend, I know no matter when you have it, some people will miss out, but there must be an incredible amount of people (students) who simply can't get the time off to go back, yes I know about voting by post but you know people and being lazy, I enquired about it about a month ago but was told it was too late to change where you vote from. Bah humbug
BonnieShels
29/10/2011, 11:14 AM
I just find it incredibly annoying that these votes can't be done over a weekend, I know no matter when you have it, some people will miss out, but there must be an incredible amount of people (students) who simply can't get the time off to go back, yes I know about voting by post but you know people and being lazy, I enquired about it about a month ago but was told it was too late to change where you vote from. Bah humbug
Those students should've gotten off their asses and registered at their local address which would have enabled them to vote where they were in college.
No excuses.
You had until Monday October 3rd to register this time.
bennocelt
29/10/2011, 11:52 AM
Nice :-)
Well, the luvvies got their man, especially after the implosion of David Norris, so we're set for 7 years of establishment nodding dog. I'm surprised at how much support Gallagher got in the end, even in transfers. And Labour get the extra seat in Dublin West to boot. We'll never learn.
I hear you but praise the lord we didnt get the FF bag man Gallagher and the shame of all that. It is Ireland we are never going to change that much and what was the actual turnout - wasnt it just over 50% or am I wrong (which is not great really)
As for lazy students - thats bull Bonnie, having it on a thursday is a joke
Well, the luvvies got their man, especially after the implosion of David Norris, so we're set for 7 years of establishment nodding dog.
This has to be a new low for this forum - writing off a 7 year term, the best part of weeks before he's even sworn in!
I hear you but praise the lord we didnt get the FF bag man Gallagher and the shame of all that. It is Ireland we are never going to change that much and what was the actual turnout - wasnt it just over 50% or am I wrong (which is not great really)
As for lazy students - thats bull Bonnie, having it on a thursday is a joke
Turnout is up on the last presidential election. Full time students are facilitated by a postal ballot, if they bother their holes to apply.
BonnieShels
29/10/2011, 1:15 PM
As for lazy students - thats bull Bonnie, having it on a thursday is a joke
All elections and referenda should be at weekends however I feel people would still manage to crib that they had a christening/match or something else to go to anyway that's another day's work.
Anyone who has to make an excuse not to vote is an idiot.
Can you explain to me why those students couldn't register at their term addresses? You know why, because they couldn't be arsed!
And as Macy said they had the option of a postal vote.
geezer
29/10/2011, 6:22 PM
Just great to see a genuine LOI supporter become President. Michael D unlike a lot of politicians he attends up to 16/20 LOI games most seasons at Terryland and not just at election times either. He has a real technical understanding of the game from a football and fans point of view. Hopefully the League can benefit a bit from his stint in the Phoenix Park....
Spudulika
29/10/2011, 8:10 PM
I hear you but praise the lord we didnt get the FF bag man Gallagher and the shame of all that. It is Ireland we are never going to change that much and what was the actual turnout - wasnt it just over 50% or am I wrong (which is not great really)
As for lazy students - thats bull Bonnie, having it on a thursday is a joke
With you on Gallagher, it was clear all along he was a sleeper for FF, I just don't see the merit in having the Aras being a retirement home again (despite the LOI link). The turnout shows how demotivated/lazy the people are. Though I suppose at least we can't complain about electoral fraud.
Bonnie, there's no reason for the election not to be held on a Saturday as in many other countries. I always wondered if there was a particular reason for it to be on a weekday in Ireland.
mypost
29/10/2011, 11:09 PM
Those students should've gotten off their asses and registered at their local address which would have enabled them to vote where they were in college.
No excuses.
You had until Monday October 3rd to register this time.
Maybe they saw through the pointlessness of the thing, and decided not to bother. I wouldn't have if the Trinity Senator hadn't put his name on the paper, and I'm not a student.
Our real President was in Brussels the other day telling us all what we had to do to get ourselves out of our mess. Nobody voted for him, but his decisions have the power to change our lives. We did however elect a 70-year old to sit in a personal retirement home for 14 years, sign a few bits of Dail business, travel in royalty around the world representing himself, form/dissolve a Parliament, hand out a few seals of office, and collect a large cheque for the priviledge. He'll enjoy it though, the other candidates have jobs to do in their own worlds.
Good to see the Oireachtas Inquiry bill rejected, though the bill would only be effective so long as it didn't conflict with The Constitution for Europe document that the state signed up to in the last Referendum.
Spudulika
30/10/2011, 5:48 AM
That's a pretty neat summation Mypost. I wonder if the Inquiry bill will return though, so that we do what we're told next time.
Acornvilla
30/10/2011, 7:56 AM
All elections and referenda should be at weekends however I feel people would still manage to crib that they had a christening/match or something else to go to anyway that's another day's work.
Anyone who has to make an excuse not to vote is an idiot.
Can you explain to me why those students couldn't register at their term addresses? You know why, because they couldn't be arsed!
And as Macy said they had the option of a postal vote.
get off your high horse, I tried to, as did a few others I know, I didn't know the dates and inquired too late as I had assumed I would make it back (didn't realize it was on a Thursday until about 3 weeks before the election).
By then it literally was a choice of eating or voting so..
Eminence Grise
30/10/2011, 9:49 AM
If the government wanted to have students voting, they could have held it next week: it's midterm break in colleges of further education and reading week in some ITs. And they wouldn't have had to close schools for a day either.
Glad the Inquiry referendum failed. We need the provision, but with safeguards. What Shatter was proposing was lax, dangerously so. If I was Kenny, I'd be watching closely to see whether he's up to the job. It's a high profile failure, especially considering his recent arrogance.
Spudulika
30/10/2011, 10:16 AM
EG, do you think Enda didn't know about it, or that it wasn't deliberate. From what I read of it - I spent an hour reading through an abridged version and came away very worried - they could overrule courts and order searches and seizures without recourse to courts. There was also something (please correct me if I'm wrong) on prosecution without representation. I was being told how great it was by an FG staffer and that I should vote yes to it as it meant they could go after the bankers. But I just thought it a bit too Orwellian in concept. Which brings me back to Shatter and Kenny, did they draw it up or was it foisted on them?
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