Gavin Bazunu G Standard Liege (loan from Southampton) b.2002

[Jolly Red Giant]

Nah, I'm done too. I don't see any basis for the argument that the Southampton situation can be reduced to "Keeper good, defence bad", and I've made my points. But they're actually ignored in the last reply (the part starting "Yada yada", when then asks me to do what I actually did in my previous post, but was cut out of the reply, for example)

1. you made vague references - I asked you to be specific - if you want to make a blanket criticism fine - you want to try and back it up with stats fine - but that does not answer the question. Soccer is not like American football where the stats can show how many pressures the LT give up on the QB and which side they are coming from - or how successful the slot receiver is at running crossing routes - or baseball where the success of the curve ball or the fast ball or the slider can be measured, or when it is better not to swing on a certain pitcher because you have a better chance of a walk. There are far too many variables in soccer that the stats cannot account for.
2. I never claimed that Bazunu was without criticism - and I pointed out three specific things of note from last night that I felt warranted criticism (criticism that I have made before) - but in terms of the overall situation with Ireland and Southampton with long range shots, that is more the fault of the defence than Bazunu. And the Southampton defence is very poor - we won't know where Bazunu is really at unless Russell Martin fixes the Southampton defence (and the same replay applies to the nonsense from Jd2793)

[pineapple stu]

Soccer is not like American football where the stats can show how many pressures the LT give up on the QB and which side they are coming from - or how successful the slot receiver is at running crossing routes - or baseball where the success of the curve ball or the fast ball or the slider can be measured, or when it is better not to swing on a certain pitcher because you have a better chance of a walk. There are far too many variables in soccer that the stats cannot account for.

I think your ongoing dismissal of stats needs a big "citation needed" to be honest.

All we're talking about is stats around a shot - does the shooter score from where he's taking the shot (xG)? Does the keeper save the shot that comes in (PSxG)? That's a very small subsection of football, but it does help reduce it to something similar to pitcher v batter in baseball. Of course, that's most of what there is to baseball whereas football is much more nuanced.

There's about 1,000 goals scored per season in the Premier League. Add in France, Germany, Spain and Italy and you're up to 5,000 goals a season. More once you add in Champions League, Europa League, internationals, etc. Run that over, say, the last ten years and you're looking at maybe 60,000 goals to analyse. How many shots are you looking at? Maybe 9 shots per 1 goal? (Suggested here). More than half a million shots over ten years?

That's a lot of raw data to evaluate those two static outcomes I noted above. I won't argue that the statistical modelling is absolutely correct to the second decimal place usually quoted. You mightn't like the idea that some elements of football can be evaluated by statistical modelling.

But that doesn't make these sort of stats something that can be dismissed as quickly as you'd like to.

[Jolly Red Giant]

I think your ongoing dismissal of stats needs a big "citation needed" to be honest.

All we're talking about is stats around a shot - does the shooter score from where he's taking the shot (xG)? Does the keeper save the shot that comes in (PSxG)? That's a very small subsection of football, but it does help reduce it to something similar to pitcher v batter in baseball. Of course, that's most of what there is to baseball whereas football is much more nuanced.

There's about 1,000 goals scored per season in the Premier League. Add in France, Germany, Spain and Italy and you're up to 5,000 goals a season. More once you add in Champions League, Europa League, internationals, etc. Run that over, say, the last ten years and you're looking at maybe 60,000 goals to analyse. How many shots are you looking at? Maybe 9 shots per 1 goal? (Suggested here). More than half a million shots over ten years?

That's a lot of raw data to evaluate those two static outcomes I noted above. I won't argue that the statistical modelling is absolutely correct to the second decimal place usually quoted. You mightn't like the idea that some elements of football can be evaluated by statistical modelling.

But that doesn't make these sort of stats something that can be dismissed as quickly as you'd like to.

I do not have a problem with statistical analysis - and it has a role to play in analysing the actions of players on the pitch - the problem is attempting to read too much into those stats.

You talk about 60,000 goals - on a large pitch with 22 players into a goals 8 feet high and 24 feet wide, where the shots can come in at all heights, angles, trajectories, pace, and from varying distances, with players of varying heights, strengths, flexibility etc. with and without defenders in the way, closing down, backing off etc etc - there are hundreds of variables. You claim that you are addressing two static outcomes - they are not static - for them to be static, the shooter and the goalkeeper would have to be in fixed positions. The closest that you can come to this on a football pitch is when a penalty is being taken - and even then there are a large number of variables (to start with the penalty taker is not static - and most of the time neither is the goalkeeper).

Baseball has something between 750,000 - 1,000,000 pitches in a season - between two players, both in fixed positions, where the ball has to hit within a precise area roughly four foot square over home plate.

Do you see the difference ?

I don't know if you have ever studied statistics, I have, and the first thing you learn is to be aware of the limitations and the possibility of misinterpreting the data.

[Trequartista20]

Bazunu did okay yesterday. I don't remember any particularly obvious error that may have led to a goal. I did feel a sense of a general lack of confidence, and he wasn't always as commanding as you'd ideally like, but that's to perhaps be expected given Southampton's difficulties over the last year.

But it seems that he and Stevens have been singled out for particular criticism by Ireland supporters, and I think that's unfair.

Stevens obviously wasn't fully fit and was almost hobbling by the end of the first half. And, whereas Browne had the the pace of Ogbene in front of him and the strength and athleticism of Collins covering him in attempting to nullify Mbappe, Stevens was left isolated against Dembele a few times, and I think almost any defender would have struggled under the circumstances.

O'Shea would have been a far better option on the left side of the back three; more comfortable when dragged out into the left-back position, given his familiarity to the role, and quicker and more mobile than Egan. I was astounded when he didn't start. And Knight, as a natural central midfielder, was often to be found drifting into more central areas.

Funnily enough, looking further ahead, I don't worry about Bazunu at all, actually.

I'm so confident in his overall ability, comfort with the ball at his feet, maturity, strength of character and ceiling for improvement that I think his career will turn out just fine. And I fully expect him to develop into a regular Premier League-level performer.

[ontheotherhand]

Felt very sorry for Stevens alright. People's expectations of what our team should be capable of against the likes of France are utterly bonkers. We knew wingback was going to be an issue and it's proving worse than I thought. A new manager might switch it up.

Bazunu should be fine. I wish he'd gone elsewhere as Southampton are a disaster. He probably need another year in League 1 or a move to a solid Championship side. Hope it doesn't set him back too much but he does look short of confidence. Irish fans could help out there.

[pineapple stu]

The French spoke after the game about targetting Bazunu it seems -

In his post-match press conference, Didier Deschamps mentioned France’s number of long-range shots in the game, and it seems they believed it’s a weakness in Bazunu’s game. L’Equipe dedicated a page of Thursday’s edition to a piece on Bazunu’s record from distance, interviewing a former Chelsea goalkeeping coach.

“I had watched Bazunu when he was at Portsmouth and, already at the time, I had noticed that he had trouble anticipating shots from afar”, said Christophe Lollichon. “Because he never takes the extra step on the ball side which would allow him to be better positioned and because he is also often positioned too close to his line in this kind of situation.”

Same comment I've made about the lack of a sidestep for the goals v Armenia. Undermines the theory about all those unstoppable long-rangers he lets in.

Maybe there's something in the stats after all

[pineapple stu]

You talk about 60,000 goals - on a large pitch with 22 players into a goals 8 feet high and 24 feet wide, where the shots can come in at all heights, angles, trajectories, pace, and from varying distances, with players of varying heights, strengths, flexibility etc. with and without defenders in the way, closing down, backing off etc etc - there are hundreds of variables. You claim that you are addressing two static outcomes - they are not static - for them to be static, the shooter and the goalkeeper would have to be in fixed positions. The closest that you can come to this on a football pitch is when a penalty is being taken - and even then there are a large number of variables (to start with the penalty taker is not static - and most of the time neither is the goalkeeper).

Baseball has something between 750,000 - 1,000,000 pitches in a season - between two players, both in fixed positions, where the ball has to hit within a precise area roughly four foot square over home plate.

Do you see the difference ?

I don't know if you have ever studied statistics, I have, and the first thing you learn is to be aware of the limitations and the possibility of misinterpreting the data.

I have studied statistics, thanks for asking.

Is half a million shots statistically insignificant? You can easily ramp it up by more - to a million, say - by taking in more years and more leagues. I don't know exactly how much data is used in the actual calculations. You talk of hundreds of variables and you're right - but you've hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of data points. How many shots do you want? I think it's a lot of data to work with to be honest.

If his stats were marginal, I might agree with you. But they're not. They're terrible. PSxG of -1 or -2 you'd overlook. Not -16. And Lollichon's analysis backs up my argument that you're looking at the long-rangers with green-tinted glasses, deeming them unstoppable where an experienced top-level goalkeeping coach (who likely uses these stats) flags poor positioning and footwork. And when France (successfully) use that analysis in their match planning, the stats start to stack up. If he's conceding too many short-odds shots, his PSxG will be crap.

[Jolly Red Giant]

The French spoke after the game about targetting Bazunu it seems -



Same comment I've made about the lack of a sidestep for the goals v Armenia. Undermines the theory about all those unstoppable long-rangers he lets in.

Maybe there's something in the stats after all

Portsmouth was two years ago - do you not think that Bazunu has made any improvement in the last two years?

Also - did either of them say anything about the stats?

[Jolly Red Giant]

I have studied statistics, thanks for asking.

Well it is good to know that I am talking to someone that at least has some understanding of what they are saying.

Is half a million shots statistically insignificant? You can easily ramp it up by more - to a million, say - by taking in more years and more leagues. I don't know exactly how much data is used in the actual calculations. You talk of hundreds of variables and you're right - but you've hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of data points. How many shots do you want? I think it's a lot of data to work with to be honest.

No - half a million shots is not insignificant - But those half a million shots also include a very large and significant number of variables that limit their usefulness.

I will repeat this - Bazunu is not without his faults - but that does not mean he is a bad goalkeeper. It will be 6 or maybe 8 years before Bazunu reaches his peak. He will learn and he will correct what he needs to correct. It will take time but he works hard and he does learn.

If his stats were marginal, I might agree with you. But they're not. They're terrible. PSxG of -1 or -2 you'd overlook. Not -16. And Lollichon's analysis backs up my argument that you're looking at the long-rangers with green-tinted glasses, deeming them unstoppable where an experienced top-level goalkeeping coach (who likely uses these stats) flags poor positioning and footwork. And when France (successfully) use that analysis in their match planning, the stats start to stack up. If he's conceding too many short-odds shots, his PSxG will be crap.

I will repeat again - go and look at the 12 goals in the Championship and now the 2 goals against France - and tell me which goals could have been saved by another goalkeeper and why (i.e. what mistake did Bazunu make).

[Jolly Red Giant]

[pineapple stu]

Portsmouth was two years ago - do you not think that Bazunu has made any improvement in the last two years?

Lollichon thinks he hasn't anyway - not in this area of his game at least. Hence him saying that "already at Portsmouth" he had identified this weakness on long shots and, it still being there (and we can see the same weakness in the goals against Armenia and the long-range goals against Southampton this season), the French built it into their game plan for Thursday. And quite successfully too.

So when you ask what mistake did Bazunu make in the 14 goals conceded this season, well now you have to consider poor positioning and poor footwork on the long-range shots. You think they were unstoppable worldies; maybe the reality is that with better positioning and footwork, they're kept out half the time. That's a big gap.

The positive there of course is that footwork/positioning is something very coachable. Though it's slightly worrying to see something so relatively basic there at this stage of his career.

No - half a million shots is not insignificant - But those half a million shots also include a very large and significant number of variables that limit their usefulness.

Yep - but how many?

You said earlier there were hundreds of variables and I agreed - but on reflection, I don't think there are actually. I think there's maybe a dozen. You listed the key ones earlier. Position of shot, power, direction/placement, players in the way, curl, readiness of the keeper (obviously harder to save a shot if you're getting up having parried an initial shot). Maybe a couple of others. Of course, they combine in different ways for hundreds if not thousands of different types of shot a keeper can face. Probably tens of thousands of shots. But if you have hundreds of thousands if not millions of data points, then I don't think your argument holds that the former makes the latter useless.

I've helped players make compilation videos of themselves btw. They're not worth the pixels they're printed on in terms of presenting a balanced view.

[SkStu]

I can't believe what I am reading seldom seen board journeyman takes out daily nesting board heavy weight at his own game in A huge upset here on footdot. Pay per view popcorn level stuff & a new King.

You couldn’t just leave it…could you?

[ifk101]

Is there a link to the original L’Equipe article? Be nice to read what a professional goalkeeping coach has to say, sure he said more than what the the42.ie (correctly?) quoted. Impressive all the same he was keeping tabs on Portsmouth's third choice keeper.

As for the long shots, you need (a) a clean strike, (b) power, and (c) accuracy to score from distance. For all three to occur you need space and time. We are conceding from distance regardless of who is in goals.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Lollichon thinks he hasn't anyway - not in this area of his game at least. Hence him saying that "already at Portsmouth" he had identified this weakness on long shots and, it still being there (and we can see the same weakness in the goals against Armenia and the long-range goals against Southampton this season), the French built it into their game plan for Thursday. And quite successfully too.

So when you ask what mistake did Bazunu make in the 14 goals conceded this season, well now you have to consider poor positioning and poor footwork on the long-range shots. You think they were unstoppable worldies; maybe the reality is that with better positioning and footwork, they're kept out half the time. That's a big gap.

The positive there of course is that footwork/positioning is something very coachable. Though it's slightly worrying to see something so relatively basic there at this stage of his career.

Once again - which goals that he conceded this season do you believe another goalkeeper would have saved - indicate and explain why - go through them one by one.

Yep - but how many?

You said earlier there were hundreds of variables and I agreed - but on reflection, I don't think there are actually. I think there's maybe a dozen. You listed the key ones earlier. Position of shot, power, direction/placement, players in the way, curl, readiness of the keeper (obviously harder to save a shot if you're getting up having parried an initial shot). Maybe a couple of others. Of course, they combine in different ways for hundreds if not thousands of different types of shot a keeper can face. Probably tens of thousands of shots. But if you have hundreds of thousands if not millions of data points, then I don't think your argument holds that the former makes the latter useless.

I've helped players make compilation videos of themselves btw. They're not worth the pixels they're printed on in terms of presenting a balanced view.

You are incorrect - there are dozens if not hundreds.

A shot taken does not begin when the shooter strikes the ball and end when it hits the net or is saved - everything that happened in the lead up to the shot impacts on the shot - every movement or lack of movement by every player in the vicinity impacts on the shot - every movement or lack of movement by every player impacts on the goalkeeper before and while the shot is being taken - a goalkeeper cannot close his eyes and ignore what is happening in his peripheral vision - every second or fraction of a second impacts on what happens - every movement of a body part by every player involved can impact on both the shot and the save - weather impacts everything, a cloud covering the sun the split second before the strike can cause an impact both the shooter and the goalkeeper because it can change shadows in peripheral vision - rain, cold, sudden sunshine etc - I could go on - but it is clear that stats can only serve a relatively limited purpose when it comes to football (unlike, as I mentioned before, pitching in baseball where you have two players in fixed positions and a very small target window - now there are variables in pitching as well - but far, far fewer than in soccer).

It is particularly difficult for the goalkeeper - the shooter knows in advance that he is going to shoot once he makes up his mind - the goalkeeper does not - the keeper has to account for other potential scenarios - up to and including the potential for a deflection.

Strikers get all the headlines - but the hardest job on the football pitch, by some considerable distance, is that of the goalkeeper - and goalkeepers are rarely praised and always criticised (most fans expect them to save everything that comes their way). All goalkeepers make mistakes - they can go through hot streaks and barren periods in terms of saving shots - but they all make mistakes. Having a short memory is a good thing for a goalkeeper.

I will repeat what I have previously said - Bazunu is a very good goalkeeper, potentially the best that Ireland has ever produced (currently Shay Given - or if we talk about the entire island - Pat Jennings). He had a poor year last year in a bad Southampton team that had an abysmal defence. He has been better this season - but Southampton still have not helped the situation by failing to fix the defence. Bazunu is very mature - he works hard - he wants to learn - but even then you have to be impacted by the situation you are put in. When he joined Southampton I thought it was a good move for him - but it turned into its opposite. With hindsight he probably should have gone on loan to a Championship team to continue his development (if that was an option for him at the time). He has his flaws - no goalkeeper is perfect - but I am sure that he and his goalkeeping coach are working on them. We will see what happens tomorrow - and how things will go at Southampton as the season progresses. They have two tough games coming up - away to Leicester on Friday and at home to Ipswich on Tuesday. If they win both of those they are in the top two - and then they have 4/5 games that they should potentially win. If they get a bit of a run together it could change the entire complexion of the situation Bazunu is in.

I am not blind to his flaws but I really do want Bazunu to succeed. We could do with a PL level goalkeeper to go with the other players that we could see coming through - and I have confidence he will - because he does have the ability and because he is level-headed and knows that he still has a lot to learn.

And by the video - the video wasn't intended to present a balanced view - it was to demonstrate that he can actually save shots (and has a strong hand).

[John83]

Lads, for the sake of everyone's sanity, could Jolly Red Giant and Pineapple Stu take it to PMs please?

[pineapple stu]

Is there a link to the original L’Equipe article?

One quick Google later...

Gavin Bazunu (Ireland), a far from imperial goalkeeper on distant strikes

Mostly behind a paywall, but it starts "Do not be surprised if the Blues, this Thursday night, try their luck from afar in turn. They are probably aware that the Irish goalkeeper, Gavin Bazunu (21), now has a reputation for being in trouble when called upon on long-range shots. He who plays at Southampton (currently 7th in the Championship) conceded, Saturday, during a heavy defeat at Sunderland (0-5), two goals in this way, scored by the French midfielder Pierre Ekwah. According to Opta, Bazunu is also the goalkeeper of the English Second Division who has conceded this season the most goals from outside the box (3), managing to stop only 50% of the strikes triggered from this area."

[Jolly Red Giant]

As for the long shots, you need (a) a clean strike, (b) power, and (c) accuracy to score from distance. For all three to occur you need space and time. We are conceding from distance regardless of who is in goals.

Exactly

[Diggs246]

I think we need more stats !

[Stuttgart88]

Kazakhstan think they’re playing us, not NI. Nice goal from 22 yards, low and across Peacock-Farrell, just evading his dive. In this case I think it was just a really good strike.

[Stuttgart88]

2 days without a Bazunu post?!

I thought he played well on Sunday. 2 very smart saves. He was exposed for the penalty and was a bit unluckly not to save it - another of those "might have" monents I suppose.

Distribution accuracy stats wouldn't have been as high as if he'd just kept it short all the time but a few of his clearances were under pressure and I think he mixed long and short well, going long when it was the right thing to do. I don't panic when the ball is played to his feet anyway.