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Thread: Financial Crisis

  1. #501
    International Prospect osarusan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mypost View Post
    The Japanese government have come up with a unique spending programme whereby everyone is given $200 to spend as they wish, in order to get the economy going again. It's better than anything I've seen from our government yet.
    It is actually 12,000 yen, which is about 90 euros.

    And the Japanese aren't too thrilled about it.

    http://www.japantoday.com/category/l...a-japanese-say

    Also, it will be sending millions and millions of euro directly into the hands of the Yakuza.

  2. #502
    Coach John83's Avatar
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    Didn't the Americans already do something similar with a big tax rebate for everyone?
    You can't spell failure without FAI

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    Seasoned Pro OneRedArmy's Avatar
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    Wouldn't matter whether you gave people 100, 1000 or 10k to spend, the majority would save it. Lots of evidence the savings rate is rocketing after a decade of credit growth. De-leveraging ( at a personal level as well as amongst banks) is an inevitable, necessary and unfortunately painful consequence of what's gone on.

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    First Team Bald Student's Avatar
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    Does de-leveraging mean borrowing less?

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    Quote Originally Posted by OneRedArmy View Post
    Wouldn't matter whether you gave people 100, 1000 or 10k to spend, the majority would save it. Lots of evidence the savings rate is rocketing after a decade of credit growth.
    If the money went straight into peoples pockets instead of directly to the banls they would get it back through savings accounts?
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

    Bring back Rocketman!

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    Quote Originally Posted by pete View Post
    The state should also start selling the family silver (i.e. state assets.) so it has money to spend on core role like education, police etc...
    2 things...

    1) Because it's worked so well everytime they've done it before? Part of the reason we're in a poor position to compete is because our telecoms infrastructure has been asset stripped, and drasticly underinvested in because of privatisation and profit maximisation.

    2) Even if you think losing control of assets is a good thing, why on earth would you sell at the bottom of the market? That only suits the buyers (such as O'Reilly who made millions out of eircom - no surprise his papers have pushed the sale of others), not the state or the public.
    If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.

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    The ESB could easily be sold as long as we keep the infrastructure in state control. The Eircom mistake was selling the infrastructure.

    The reason to sell is we are broke as a country. We don't have luxury of waiting to sell at the top of the market.
    http://www.forastrust.ie/

    Bring back Rocketman!

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    Quote Originally Posted by pete View Post
    If the money went straight into peoples pockets instead of directly to the banls they would get it back through savings accounts?
    Yes, but it would be on the other side of the banks' balance sheets - ie a liability not an asset

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    Quote Originally Posted by pete View Post
    The ESB could easily be sold as long as we keep the infrastructure in state control. The Eircom mistake was selling the infrastructure.

    The reason to sell is we are broke as a country. We don't have luxury of waiting to sell at the top of the market.
    But the ESB makes a profit so it actually contributes to reducing our need to borrow? It'd be very short term thinking to sell state assets, never mind profitable ones.
    If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    Didn't the Americans already do something similar with a big tax rebate for everyone?
    Australia did it. Handed out nearly $300 per head.
    Extratime.ie

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  11. #511
    Coach John83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by superfrank View Post
    Australia did it. Handed out nearly $300 per head.
    Yeah. I was right though, the US did it a year ago:
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/...3-17-irs_N.htm

    US$600 per person, $300 per child.

    No idea whether it's considered to have done any good.
    You can't spell failure without FAI

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    Seasoned Pro OneRedArmy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    Yeah. I was right though, the US did it a year ago:
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/...3-17-irs_N.htm

    US$600 per person, $300 per child.

    No idea whether it's considered to have done any good.
    Generally viewed as a complete and utter failure for the reasons I quoted above.

    http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/...ailure-of.html

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    I can belive that. It sounds like a crap solution with a decent PR upside for the government.
    You can't spell failure without FAI

  14. #514
    Seasoned Pro OneRedArmy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John83 View Post
    I can belive that. It sounds like a crap solution with a decent PR upside for the government.
    If you could force the people to spend the money it would have a positive effect undoubtedly, but short of issuing people gift vouchers its almost impossible to do this.

    In the US case it was a desperate effort by a government on its last legs.

  15. #515
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneRedArmy
    Generally viewed as a complete and utter failure for the reasons I quoted above.
    Certainly worth a try, compared to the tax, tax, tax attitude of our government.

    Not much point in having a Celtic Tiger and wage increases in a boom, when the government intends to take it all back from you when the rainy day comes.

    But as long as JC Trichet is happy, everything's fine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OneRedArmy View Post
    Wouldn't matter whether you gave people 100, 1000 or 10k to spend, the majority would save it. Lots of evidence the savings rate is rocketing after a decade of credit growth. De-leveraging ( at a personal level as well as amongst banks) is an inevitable, necessary and unfortunately painful consequence of what's gone on.
    The definitive piece on the Japanese experience of the 90s is by Nomura economist Richard Koo, called "The Holy Grail of Macro Economics". In this book he coins the phrase "balance sheet recession". He makes exactly your point. In fact he goes on to discredit one of the really simple and most accepted axioms underpinning classical economic theory, namely that firms seek to maximise profit. Far from it in a deep post-bubble recession, Koo argues, it's more like firms seek to maximise likelihood of survival as their main motivating factor.

    That's exactly where we are now, both corporates & consumers.

    The same book contains a very oriental analysis, a really descriptive "ying phase" and "yang phase" diagram, the upshot being that, as usual, economies will self heal but it gives no timescale.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bald Student View Post
    Does de-leveraging mean borrowing less?
    Yes, it's paying down your debt until it becomes more manageable.

    The situation ORA describes is what I think is called a "liquidity trap". It's the situation that Keynes likened to "pushing on a piece of string" - i.e., no matter how hard the authorities try to stir activity by pumping in money it'll have no impact.

    That's why I can't comprehend the 2.5% reduction in VAT in the UK. What a moronic gesture that was.

    The only difference it made is to give retailers up and down the country a pain in the hole because they had to adjust the price of every single item for sale, and restaurants all had to pay to have their menus reprinted and so on...

  18. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stuttgart88 View Post
    Yes, it's paying down your debt until it becomes more manageable.
    Thanks,
    I agree with you. I think the country has followed the business model of the LoI and we'll just need to get used to having less money. Since money is getting scarcer, the people hardest hit will be those who borrowed to buy stuff at yesterdays' prices but will have to pay that back with tomorrows' earnings.

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    The real plus side of all this is seeing twits who have borrowed stupid money now down on their knees. Ha! Ha! Now they know what it felt like for those of us who never made any money during the so called Boom. If they choose to take a short time view and live beyond their means and are now suffering I'm glad. That will teach them a valuable lesson.
    Aon, dó, trí, bhí mé i mo luí, thit mé den leaba, he! he! he!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mypost View Post
    Certainly worth a try, compared to the tax, tax, tax attitude of our government.
    It was actually their cut tax, cut tax, cut tax attitude that has us in the bloody crapper in the first place. Only right that it's the same idiots that have to reverse their own brainless policies.
    If you attack me with stupidity, I'll be forced to defend myself with sarcasm.

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