US Presidential Elections

[Noelys Guitar]

Obama will win New Hamshire. He can win the nomination.

[Dodge]

Either way it will be seen as historic if Barack gets voted into the White House, and even though I know it will have to be touched on if he gets the Democrat's seal of approval, the fact he hasn't touched on how historic it will be during the primaries and has solely focused on his policies is the mark of someone I would want in power in Washington


His victory speech mentions what "a man with a Kenyan father can do if..."

[bennocelt]

On the Democrat side I'm hoping against hope that Obama gets the nod, and that he takes John Edwards with him as Vice President, the two of them together would be a dream ticket for the world. If Hilary gets the Democrat vote they will lose the 2009 election.



wow , i agree with you twice in one day!:) jeez
Yeah wouldnt it be great for America and the world to see Obama elected. And it wouldnt be because he is black, just that he is honest. Imagine an honest politican?
Cant stand the Clinton, on a power trip.

Anyway I backed Huckabee at 12/1, but only two days before he was 66/1. Damn, cause i fancied he would/will do well. If you believe in conspiracies ( I do!), he could get it, but then they reckon Clinton will get it and mess up bigtime and result in the Republicans having control after her two terms after?
One or the other;)

[shedite]

And to suggest that Obama has "sown" up the black vote is stunningly naieve - just as naieve as saying that Hillary has sown up the female vote.

Just one interesting note on this. I was working in America last year and chatting to somebody about this. Apparently a lot of females see Hilary as being weak for forgiving a man who cheated on her, and will not vote for her for that reason.

[Angus]

With due note of the overuse of the word "historic", I think today could be a truly historic day in US and world history.

Traffic on the Drudge Report yesterday suggests that Hillary might pull out if she has a bad night. The early villages that voted are heavily weighted to Obama (Wingnuts will remember the fictional Hartsfields Landing which is actually 2 small towns in NH).

A big win for Obama guarantees him the nomination, except for a major career ending scandal or a major gaffe. His VP choice becomes much easier if he beats Hillary easily (she is not a VP possibility if she loses badly and he will be left wth Edwards, Biden or Richardson, depending on who the GOP nominates).

His biggest advantage in the general is the the GOP are a mess - I have never seen 3 less impressive candidates than Romney, Huckabee and Thompson, Ron Paul is actually unhinged and their electable candidates, McCain and Guliani are essentially Democrats.

The GOP faithful need to decide whether they want to retain control of a party that loses or lose control of a party that can win.

Obama would beat Romney or Huckabee in a general but would struggle against McCain or Guilani.

Tonight will be pivotal - amazing stuff.

[Bluebeard]

Imagine an honest politican?
So by that rationale, as far as I can establish from what little I have watched / read / heard reported, John McCain is the man?

Not meaning to take the **** - Obama does come across as very honest, but then so does a good actor. Sadly, I fear his folksy proto-Kennedy-ism is not backed by anything of substance, and he is carrying we Europeans along because he seems far more civilised than the current incumbent. I am keen to see how New Hampshire, a more politically motivated state according to some (Iowa being more personality and values oriented) will view him. I would be prepared to make a wager that, if elected, in his time there will be little real improvement made to the lot of the African-American, in the same way that our two Queen Marys have not managed to redress the balance of gender in Irish politics.

Of Clinton, I suspect that she is the most trained, and qualified of all those running. Aside Gore, there has not been this qualified a candidate since the 1988 election, even at this stage of the races, and I include those who were running for a second term. But, I fear, like Gore she will alienate by doing what she believes is necessary to win, and has done already - hold back on naming the policies she believes in, and attempt to be something that I suspect that she isn't. I'm not suggesting for one minute that she is a more left leaning candidate, but I suspect she knows what she is at far better. However, IF she were elected (note that this is a very big "if"), I expect she would be torn apart by the Washington Press boys on the basis of the fact that she is a woman, look more vulnerable and cold simultaneously and never get re-elected allowing a buffoon to get elected. I think that Condi Rice (no, I'm not a fan) is possibly the one woman who could get re-elected in the current political spectrum. Her, and Elizabeth Kucinich.

Of the others, Edwards is the stand-out candidate. This man has a longer term future in the Democrat Party than either of the others, almost certainly a future Leader of the Senate, and if Clinton or Obama get it, he is almost a cert for Veep, seeing as it is a Clinton / Obama or Obama / Clinton ticket would never get near it. He ticks a lot of the electable boxes - self made family man from the South (JFK the last non-Southern Democrat to get near elected), good looking, hard working and clearly not corrupted. He is also quite a degree further left than the other pair (Clinton being centre, and Obama seeming without defined politics). Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have a peg on which to focus, while his counterparts have had, both then and now (colour, gender, major single issue) and it is generally vital to win the Democrat Nom. Sadly, I cannot see him taking the nom, though I reckon he might win an election against any other than McCain, or possibly Bloomberg, but in four years, if there is a Republican back at 1600, I would back him heavily at Paddy Powers to win in 2012.

Tonight is big, possibly the decision for the nom may be made by a big turnout in favour of any one candidate. If I were forced at gun point to vote for one of the Democrat candidates, I would plumb for Kuncinich, as an actual vaguely left leaning person, but more likely I will not bother to vote, what with the paucity of a decent major condidate, and the small matter of my not being eligible.

[anto1208]

Jesus adam it was a little light humour (hence the smiley)


And therefore takes someone with a sense of humour to think its funny ;)


It doesnt really matter who wins it will make no difference do people still think the president runs the country ??

[pete]

Obama on a role but I don't believe Clinton would pull out after NH as it is a small state like Iowa. She will stay until Super Tuesday at least. Florida at the end of this month is first big state. Don't understand how Obama has got to this position with virtually no experience or track record. Is Oprah endorsement worth so much?

My clip of the day is Ron Paul v Giuliani on Fox News. Can't say Paul does not speak his mind.

rFqj5vMNV1s

[Block G Raptor]

Any Idea when the results of NH will be out?
surprised HC is doing so badly, really thought she had a shot at the whitehouse

[Angus]

[QUOTE=pete;849400]
My clip of the day is Ron Paul v Giuliani on Fox News. Can't say Paul does not speak his mind.

QUOTE]

I agree, Paul does speak his mind but he is unhinged. Have a look at his recent Meet the Press appearance <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/>.

He comes across as bonkers for example, he wants to remove Income Tax and the Department of Education and is a strict constituionalist - bonkers - but because he speaks out against some of the shibboleths, especially on US foreign policy, he comes across as sane - this guy is dangerous.

[Angus]

Any Idea when the results of NH will be out?
surprised HC is doing so badly, really thought she had a shot at the whitehouse


First concrete results in the early hous of the morning but a clear sense from exit pools around 11.00pm / midnight Irish time.

For the anoraks among us, the first few villages have already voted <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch>

[Block G Raptor]

the first few villages have already voted <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch>

Thanks Angus
looking at the wiki page there, the citizens of Dixville have an un-canny knack for voting for the loser

[jebus]

The NH vote was locked this morning for Obama and McCain, Hilary could be finished by this time tomorrow though, so that's all I'm looking out for in the results tonight

[pete]

[QUOTE=pete;849400]
I agree, Paul does speak his mind but he is unhinged. Have a look at his recent Meet the Press appearance <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/>.

He comes across as bonkers for example, he wants to remove Income Tax and the Department of Education and is a strict constituionalist - bonkers - but because he speaks out against some of the shibboleths, especially on US foreign policy, he comes across as sane - this guy is dangerous.

I think it is difficult to understand a lot of issues like that unless you live in the US. I believe he is basically anti federal government & wants a lot of power to return to the states. A lot of people in Europe are unhappy about extra power for the EU... Aside from speaking the same language many US states have little else in common.

If nothing else it is good to see US politician actually saying maybe there other reasons for Islamic attacks aside from the standard line that they "hates our freedom". You can ever see the Fox News lackies basically suggesting that he can't say that.

[dahamsta]

A lot of people in Europe are unhappy about extra power for the EU.I'm not sure they are. It's not exactly a point of conversation I come across on a regular basis. I think a lot of people in Ireland might be unhappy about being bullied by the EU and the Irish Goverment, time and time again, into treaties they want to examine in more detail or want reviewed, but that's not the same thing.

[Noelys Guitar]

Hilary is in a slight lead over Obamaat 1.40 am. Some comeback.

[dahamsta]

McCain is being called as the winner for the GOP on CNN.

[Risteard]

Jayz, I thought that the Hillary-victory declaration and concessions seemed very premature. It looks to me like she'll win by about 1%

[Angus]

I have been watching these things for 25 years and this is one of the most amazing results.

There have been 3 elections I can remember being stunned at what was hapenning - Labour beating the Tories in 1997 - I was still up when Portillo lost, Bush beating Kerry in 2004 when all of the exit polls suggested differently and now last night.

All of the pundits had a double digit win for Obama - the polls and focus groups (Frank Luntz - find a new job, baby) and bookmakers and everybody on all of the channels were anointing the guy as a rock star.

The true sign of an election shockj is when the candidates and their handlers are shocked at the result - Terry McAuliffe (Clinton camp) was on Fascist news last night doing the "national campaign / 50 states / very early - super tuesday" lark, essentially conceding defeat in NH.

They were in panic - Carville and Begala were being touted as coming back to help - Drudge had her about to quit and then she goes and pulls off a win like this.

Incredible stuff - if you had offered Obama these 2 results 2 months ago he would have bitten your hand off - now he probably feels deflated.

Less surprising on the GOP side and the contrast is remarkable - the GOP voted exactly as polled - the Dems were all over the place. What that suggests is that Dems are not being polled properly, are being evasive on answers or the pollsters are polling the wrong people.

Yet another massive Dem turnout - I lost money last night on barack but have made on him so far - backed him to win the nomination when he was 15/1 and sold it out last week.

This is now trench warfare - impossible to determine how this is going to play.

Not often I am stunned by poltiical results but this is one time........

Watch Russert in the last 90 seconds of this clip - as ever he articulates it perfectly

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22561310#22565897

[Block G Raptor]

Was v-surprised to hear the news this morning. Go Hill!!:D

[Aberdonian Stu]

The only type of turnaround against pollsters expectations I can recall on this scale was in the UK in 92.

Even in the 97 landslide there was a whiff of a thumping coming and the UK system makes it hard to predict the scale of such a beating after around a majority of 60/70 is predicted because they line between 60 and 160 is a lot thinner than between 20 and 60 so I generally give the pollsters a pass on that one. In fairness to them as well they called the exit polls perfectly that time as well.

[Bluebeard]

Excellent post Angus.

It should have been a Clinton night, by the nature of the state, but the indicators pointed towards Obama last night, to the point that after a fashion, they were conceding during the day, talking about Super Tuesday. What a fillip. Next up is going to be interesting. I am hoping that Edwards might pull in Carolina as he will play the local card (born there) and it would be great to see him open it up a little bit more.

No surprise with McCain (prolly except from Romney) - I strongly feel he is going to grab that nom, and is probably the most acceptable to most of that side of the house. Will be interesting to see how he gets on in the other states. Classic McCain in the victory speech, Papa America / Mr. Deeds all over, who tells it how he sees it, with a smell of the Regan charm. And going on for ever.

"Totally stunned, Keith, totally!" - gold.

Next Primaries:
15-1 Michigan
19-1 Nevada,
26-1 South Carolina
29-1 Florida

Some very interesting stuff on Wiki if it is true about the rules regarding holding the primaries, and how certain states, especially Michigan, have broken rules about time of occurence and how they are being punished.

[jebus]

No surprise with McCain, but the biggest surprise for me was how all of us (including myself) could have been blinded to the fact that a strong Democrat turnout in a pro-Clinton state would have given Hilary a chance of beating Obama.

Looking at the exit poll breakdown it seems the Catholics and the female vote really swung it for Hilary here, with Barack not being able to pick up the same number of swing Republicans as he did in Iowa. A setback for him alright, but as Angus said, this would have been a very desirable position for him to be in 2 weeks, and it looks like it's really going to come down to who can broker the best deals on the floor at Super Tuesday. That's why my money is still on Barack. He has the independents sewn up, any swing Republicans will go with the Obama/Edwards ticket that is in the pipeline, and add them to an Obama/Edwards core support and I think they will have the numbers to get the nomination. My only fear is that the Democrats will tear each other apart to get the nod, and then that the loser of the race will fail to back the victor fully, as has happened in that party many times, costing them many elections

[pete]

Big win for Clinton & massive failure by the pollsters. There is a margin of error but to be so far out even in exit polls is very bad.

Both campaigns will go down to the wire although field will be trimmed post Super Tuesday. Edwards & Huckabee to be Vice President nominees although might be a problem if Guiliani wins Republican nomination.

What candidate is best for Ireland?

[beautifulrock]

Edwards & Huckabee to be Vice President nominees although might be a problem if Guiliani wins Republican nomination.

What candidate is best for Ireland?

Pete, do you think Guiliani is still in the race? Am aware that he would have not expected to win either of the two states so far but he has performed terribly? Will he even last until super Tuesday, I am not convinced he will.

McCain and Huckabee would be a formidable combination if as Jebus suggested the Democrats tear each other apart internally. However, history is not on the republican side as only George Snr has bucked the trend of a party change after an 8 year office (Basically Reagan, Reagan, Bush).

Thankfully I am not the only one watching this with interest, for the last few weeks I was worried I was becoming a very sad individual. :)

[Block G Raptor]

What candidate is best for Ireland?

I'd have to say Clinton, her and Bill have a favorable track record on the peace process. also wouldn't say they welcomed anywhere on their traveles like they were here. that kind of impression lasts

[micls]

Thankfully I am not the only one watching this with interest, for the last few weeks I was worried I was becoming a very sad individual. :)

Interest/ terror at some of them beig head of arguably the most powerful county on earth

[jebus]

Rudy will still be there on Super Tuesday beautifulrock, he didn't even canvas in Iowa or NH, he's focusing all his efforts on the big states, and I have a feeling it will tell in the Florida primary, where Ican see him winning the Republican side of it. When it comes to Super Tuesday though, I don't know, can't see him getting the Repubican nomination, but could see him lining up with McCain as Vice-President, and running on the fact that both of them are seen as American heroes, and people who understand how to tackle the War on Terror

[beautifulrock]

Rudy will still be there on Super Tuesday beautifulrock, he didn't even canvas in Iowa or NH, he's focusing all his efforts on the big states, and I have a feeling it will tell in the Florida primary, where Ican see him winning the Republican side of it. When it comes to Super Tuesday though, I don't know, can't see him getting the Repubican nomination, but could see him lining up with McCain as Vice-President, and running on the fact that both of them are seen as American heroes, and people who understand how to tackle the War on Terror

Interesting tactic, will keep an eye on that, appreciate the heads up. Do you not think that a McCain/Huckabee ticket has a wider appeal as it will basically cover the war hero and the vital bible belt hero quite nicely.

[jebus]

Interesting tactic, will keep an eye on that, appreciate the heads up. Do you not think that a McCain/Huckabee ticket has a wider appeal as it will basically cover the war hero and the vital bible belt hero quite nicely.

Well the buzzword of change is gonna be the biggest factor in the primaries (think it will die out for the actual election though), and people want to follow Obama's example of uniting the two parties. With that in mind I think Rudy would be a better fit for a Vice President because he is seen as someone who is tough but fair (to use a cliche), especially if the far right step up their campaign of painting him as a very liberal Republican (pro-choice, pro civil rights, divorced man etc.) they could push him further into the centre/centre left's good books, and would encourage the swing voters to go for McCain instead of Obama or Clinton. I think the middle ground of American politics wants to get rid of the influence the Bible Belt hold over the White House at the moment, and the middle ground is all important in this election

[dahamsta]

Jesus help the country if Guiliani got as far as POTUS or even VP, that's all I can say. Bush would seem cuddly-wuddly in light of that lying, thieving piece of human waste.

[Angus]

Jesus help the country if Guiliani got as far as POTUS or even VP, that's all I can say. Bush would seem cuddly-wuddly in light of that lying, thieving piece of human waste.

Emmmmm, "allegedly".....perhaps ?

[dahamsta]

Emmmmm, "allegedly".....perhaps ?Do I even need it? I wouldn't swear to the thieving bit on a criminal level, but his business interests are criminal on an ethical level; and in light of his presidential run, they literally are criminal because: 1) they're not declared; and b) he's still running businesses when he's not supposed to. He's been caught lying innumerate times at this stage. He makes Bush and Bertie looks like angels for god's sake.

[Block G Raptor]

. He makes Bush and Bertie looks like angels for god's sake.

Well seeing as the wonderfully intelligent American populous re-elected GWB I wouldn't be surprised if he did well. He won a lot of Hearts and Minds in the aftermath of 911

[pete]

Guiliani scores high in National polls. He leads in Florida & Michigan. Then again how accurate are the polls. I agree he a waste of space. IMO the Democrats would love to up against him.

I think the only correct predict I saw before NH was that Independents liked McCain & Obama so with more voting for McCain that was bad for Obama.

US Elections are entertaining as all TV & Polls plus a new vote every week. As foreigner can be also be detached.

[dancinpants]

I think McCain won over enough independents and it ultimately hurt Obama. The much anticipated "high turnout" amongst young voters never really materialised, again hurting the Obama campaign. Also Hillarys nauseating "weepy" moment a couple of days ago didn't do her any harm as Americans flocked to the polls to once again to illustrate their gullibility.

The republicans are probably rubbing their hands at the prospect of Hillary getting the Democratic nomination...she only THINKS she's been treated roughly at the minute - the republicans will show absolutely no mercy in a Presidential election campaign and they'll use Bill Clinton as the stick to beat her with.

[gustavo]

http://www.electoralcompass.com/page/0/thema+s/

Interesting one of those political compasses for the candidates , I'm closest to Edwards and furthest to Thompson

[osarusan]

closest to Obama, furthest from Fred Thompson.

Don't know how reliable that thing is though - I'd like to know who runs it.

[Block G Raptor]

Closest to Hillary furthest from fred thompson

[Bluebeard]

The pre-Super Tuesday Primaries, with hte exception of Florida, are really not worth a curse to the Republicans outside of PR. According to a longstanding GOP rule, no primaries are permitted prior to February 5th, and any taking place will have their delegation reduced to half, I think, for the final nomination, effectively meaning that New Hampshire was worth about 12 votes instead of 24, and is only a proportion of that goes forward behind McCain. Troublesome Michigan, is still worth 30 instead of 60, and is winner take all with a bonus for a big win. Florida is the same, only now worth 57 (instead of 114).

Smart Republicans (see what I done there - craftsmanship that) will concentrate on these and Super Tuesday in terms of votes. However, we all know how the masses like to back a winner (in Ireland as much as elsewhere), and a good showing in the politically well-regarded NH counts for quite a lot elsewhere in the more aware states. Iowa will resonate with the more family value oriented, or as we call them, "Hick" states.

Few folk seem to realise quite how well Romney is doing so far - two seconds in proportional states and 8 of the 12 votes in Wyoming - if I'm not mistaken, he is currently leading the race owing to the fact that no-one really bothered with Wyoming. However, he has yet to capitalise on this with the media.

'Twill be interesting stuff.


http://www.electoralcompass.com/page/0/thema+s/

Interesting one of those political compasses for the candidates , I'm closest to Edwards and furthest to Thompson

Interesting, but I'd hardly trust it - Obama being listed most "American Left"? One version of this has Clinton as a rampant Socialist, one step short of Karl Marx:eek:

[pete]

I read somewhere that because the vote too earlier both parties have kicked Michigan out of the system?

Romney referred to Wyoming as his gold in the "1 gold, 2 silver" remake. He has spent $60m already though. He is rich but if using personal money can't continue like that indefinitely.

McCain could become the least worst candidate of the Republicans as little baggage that other candidates have.

[passinginterest]

closest to Obama, furthest from Fred Thompson.

Don't know how reliable that thing is though - I'd like to know who runs it.

Same for me.

Interesting election as a whole. I think Obama would be my personal favourite too. I don't trust Hilary for some reason. That's based more on gut instinct than any political knowledge though.

Obama will probably win and proceed to declare war on the renegade state of Europe.

[bennocelt]

http://www.electoralcompass.com/page/0/thema+s/

Interesting one of those political compasses for the candidates , I'm closest to Edwards and furthest to Thompson


me too!!!:)

[sonofstan]

That barometer is Boll!x - Obama is about as economically left- wing as Tony Blair - look at this and who his friends are (http://louisproyect.wordpress.com/)

[SUB of the day]

JESUS!!!!!! I am Hilary Clinton.

[Lim till i die]

I am Hilary Clinton.

Where are the bodies hidden??

Those families have a right to know

[dahamsta]

Can we get back onto the topic in-hand now please, so I don't have to split all this political compass stuff out?

adam

[Risteard]

That barometer is Boll!x - Obama is about as economically left- wing as Tony Blair - look at this and who his friends are (http://louisproyect.wordpress.com/)
Jeffrey Liebman: another Harvard economist and
former Clinton adviser who favors privatizing social security:confused::confused::confused:
How would that work?

[Bluebeard]

Jeffrey Liebman: another Harvard economist and
former Clinton adviser who favors privatizing social security:confused::confused::confused:
How would that work?

Very simple. The government syphons off the presumably 4% of the tax that pays for feasibility studies on medicare and brings an end to geography in the schools (they weren't using it anyway) about throw wads of cash at some big company which is an independent branch of some huge company who go bust after 7 years, taking all the money with them, and the directors, shareholders, etc get off scott free, having invested their money into some other health plan.

Its a branch of Enronomics...

[Bluebeard]

Interesting left leaning article (http://www.portside.org/?q=showpost&i=3618)taken from Portside

---MERGED POSTS---

Romney wins half strength Michigan for the GOP, and stay on top of it, with McCain, who won it in 2000, coming second about 10% behind. Huckabee's Iowa victory seems a long time ago now, as he trailed into third, but then, he didn't campaign hard here.

Giuliani seems to have put it all into Florida - a REALLY bad idea in my opinion - most of the US is aggravated by the idea that certain politicians only pay attention to where there is a big voting block to be had - it sounds like he'll be aiming at the big states alone, and that will screw him around the houses, especially seeing as South Caolina is coming up, and traditionally a good indicator as to the GOP nom.

Meanwhile Clinton topped the state the Democrats stripped of delegates for rule infringement - Obama's people sounded p!ssed that she did allow her name on the ballot though. Nearly impossible to find out the result of the Democrats poll as the media seemed only interested in the top two, and occasionally Edwards too. Seeing as Edwards and Obama didn't have their names down, a whopping 39% went down as "Uncommitted", leaving my man Kucinich to sweep to second place on 3.66%. For the record, Clinton polled over 55%.