US Presidential Elections

[Aberdonian Stu]

The GOP race could go right the way to the convention, especially if Giuliani takes Florida. That would make for an intriguing battle.

[pete]

The GOP race could go right the way to the convention, especially if Giuliani takes Florida. That would make for an intriguing battle.

He now has to win Florida as failure there will mean no momentum going into Super Tuesday.

BTW Ron Paul was 4th in Michigan with almost same votes as Thompson (he should be gone next week) & Guiliani.

[Angus]

Well boys and girls, it didn't take long for this race to get very very very nasty.

In the last few days we have seen:

1. A contrived non existent "race war" between Hillary and Obama - total nonsense fuelled by bloggers and Fox News. The sub text is very clear - use the word race as much as possible to weaken Obama's and Hill's chances in November.

2 At the Dems debate the other night, Brian Williams (who should know better) confronted Obama with some internet rumours - specifically that he was secretly Muslim and that he actually swore oaths of office on the Koran. Fox News repeated this last night on that incubus Gibson's show with the obligatory extremely cute blonde for political cover adding (I am not making this up) "..Koran and that he is actually a radical Islam extremist". That other objectionable blonde, Monica Crowley explained why this was sticking "...because is middle name is Hussein and we have seen this name before......"

3 Fox then interviewed a guy called Jonah Goldberg whose new book (again not making this up) is called Liberal Fascism. He got the puff softball interview from FNC whose interview consisted of the likes of "..tell me the secret to your success..". Interestingly, John Stewart had him on the Daily Show, aired an hour earlier where Stewart easily made him look like a babbling idiot. Basically the guys premise is that Hillary is racist and liberalism in the US is actually progressivism (whatever that is) which has its roots with Mussolini and Hitler. I am not making this up:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=147884&title=jonah-goldberg

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Liberal-Fascism-American-Mussolini-Politics/dp/0385511841/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1200651472&sr=8-1

4 Meanwhile on the GOP side the knives are out for McCain - FNC are repeating the "black baby" story of 2000 and now he is being Swift - boated. Some guy saying his war heroism is a fake. That total git Neil Cavuto had a pop at Hillary, Obama and McCain last night in his "personal view".


Irrespective of who gets the Dems nomination, this race until November is going to be lethal and probably the dirtiest we have ever seen. Prepare for 2000 all over again because if Hill or Obama look likely to win, the stuff that went on in Florida before the election in 2000 will look like Wanderley Wagin in comparison.

[Bluebeard]

You go to sleep one night in the week and all this happens!

It looks right nasty now - the Democrats could roast themselves á la the French socialists. Fox look like controlling the GOP nom unfortunately, so McCain could get blitzed, though I do think that the Mid-American swing voter will pull towards him if it is a choice between him and a shattered Obama. A wrecked Clinton would struggle against Romney or Huckabee, but might nobble McCain. This allow a preceived neutral like Edwards or (heaven between us and) Ron Paul to have a good Super Tuesday and come through as an apparently solid if unspectacular candidate.


You don't like the ease with which people throw around the word fascism... so what you've done is... you've basically just done that.

How is organic food fascist?

That's literally like saying moustasches are fascist.

:D:D:D Oh! for an Irish John Stewart

[Newryrep]

Well boys and girls, it didn't take long for this race to get very very very nasty.

In the last few days we have seen:

1. A contrived non existent "race war" between Hillary and Obama - total nonsense fuelled by bloggers and Fox News. The sub text is very clear - use the word race as much as possible to weaken Obama's and Hill's chances in November.

2 At the Dems debate the other night, Brian Williams (who should know better) confronted Obama with some internet rumours - specifically that he was secretly Muslim and that he actually swore oaths of office on the Koran. Fox News repeated this last night on that incubus Gibson's show with the obligatory extremely cute blonde for political cover adding (I am not making this up) "..Koran and that he is actually a radical Islam extremist". That other objectionable blonde, Monica Crowley explained why this was sticking "...because is middle name is Hussein and we have seen this name before......"

3 Fox then interviewed a guy called Jonah Goldberg whose new book (again not making this up) is called Liberal Fascism. He got the puff softball interview from FNC whose interview consisted of the likes of "..tell me the secret to your success..". Interestingly, John Stewart had him on the Daily Show, aired an hour earlier where Stewart easily made him look like a babbling idiot. Basically the guys premise is that Hillary is racist and liberalism in the US is actually progressivism (whatever that is) which has its roots with Mussolini and Hitler. I am not making this up:



See Daily Show on Fox News's use of questions on their running board eg 'Is your mother a whore' question, hilarious

[pete]

Looks like McCain could struggle going forward as he seems to attract more support from Independents than his own party. Guiliani could come back into it but seems Romney is the choice of GOP establishment. Might make interesting viewing seeing Republicans tear lumps off each other for a change ;)

Watching th Daily Show earlier this week & Romney saying he improved Boston roads (previously the worst) as credited by Trucker Magazine :D

Clinton is clearly the choice of the Democrat establishment & would think strong favourite

[RogerMilla]

clinton has a high negative and would only win the presidency by the skin of her teeth after a dirty battle. obama would have a better chance of putting the republicans away because of the youth vote and independents.

they are really sinking their teeth into mccain now with leaflets in south carolina saying he ratted out his fellow prisoners . just like john kerry even your exemplary military record is unsafe.

long way to go , guiliani takes florida and he becomes the front runner going into super tuesday, wonder if we will see a broker convention on either side ?

[strangeirish]

long way to go , guiliani takes florida and he becomes the front runner going into super tuesday, wonder if we will see a broker convention on either side ?
I wouldn't be so sure about that. Recent polls in north east Florida have folks leaning towards Huckabee for the thugs and Obama for the Dems. The rest of the state has McCain for the thugs and Hillary for the Dems.

[Bluebeard]

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Recent polls in north east Florida have folks leaning towards Huckabee for the thugs and Obama for the Dems. The rest of the state has McCain for the thugs and Hillary for the Dems.

I had a feeling Romney wouldn't do well there, alright - this would be essentially the first real McCain - Huckabee standoff: could be a lot of political fun, Do the Bush family still have a lot of political clout there?

[strangeirish]

Do the Bush family still have a lot of political clout there?Thanks to Dubya, no. However, his brother Jeb, the former Governor of Florida remains popular, mainly due to his legislation to protect the Everglades and his opposition to drilling for oil off the Florida coast.

[Jerry The Saint]

You go to sleep one night in the week and all this happens!

It looks right nasty now - the Democrats could roast themselves á la the French socialists. Fox look like controlling the GOP nom unfortunately, so McCain could get blitzed, though I do think that the Mid-American swing voter will pull towards him if it is a choice between him and a shattered Obama. A wrecked Clinton would struggle against Romney or Huckabee, but might nobble McCain. This allow a preceived neutral like Edwards or (heaven between us and) Ron Paul to have a good Super Tuesday and come through as an apparently solid if unspectacular candidate.

Oh! for an Irish John Stewart

Stewart's been having some excellent moments since he came back without his writers (due to the strike) - a real sign of natural wit and intelligence.

His interview with former Bush speechwriter David Frum was great - http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=147187&title=david-frum - Stewart makes the analogy of Huckabee as Ned Flanders, a decent guy but the public prefers Homer which leads to this exchange


Frum: I don't think we want President Homer
Stewart: We have President Homer.

:D

[dancinpants]

Prepare for 2000 all over again because if Hill or Obama look likely to win, the stuff that went on in Florida before the election in 2000 will look like Wanderley Wagin in comparison.


Its already been reported on Sirius Radio that the caging of votes has already started in some states.

[Bluebeard]

Well, haven't had time to investigate it, but Romney and Clinton took Nevada, while McCain took South Carolina over Huckabee. Any word other than headlines?

It looks to me like Romney's strategy is to attempt to win everywhere, and hopefully accumulate the smaller states and go into Super Tuesday with a lead while Huckabee and McCain are really targetting their campaigns at influential states.

It's a big win for Clinton - Obama managed to pick up 45% and still lost - major morale boost there. Edwards wiped out to 4 %. Not boding well for him in South Carolina.

[jebus]

Didn't Obama actually pick up more delegates in Nevada then Hilary though? AJAIK Nevada is allocated 25 delegates, and from what I heard this morning Obama got 13 compared to Hilarys 12 due to his votes being more spread out. Not 100% certain of this but thats what I heard on the Obama grapevine this morning

[dancinpants]

It's a big win for Clinton - Obama managed to pick up 45% and still lost - major morale boost there. Edwards wiped out to 4 %. Not boding well for him in South Carolina.

Clinton was projected to win by 20, so Obama done better than expected to get within 6 points.

[pete]

Didn't Obama actually pick up more delegates in Nevada then Hilary though? AJAIK Nevada is allocated 25 delegates, and from what I heard this morning Obama got 13 compared to Hilarys 12 due to his votes being more spread out.

There is difference between 13 & 12 delegates when need 2,000 or so to win the Democrats nomination. The early stages are all very small but headlines create momentum as people like to vote for winners.

McCain is being touted as the Republican leader but I don't think anything between himself Romney & Huckabee. Will be interesting to see where Thompsons votes go when he withdraws as expected. Last poll I saw had Guiliani 3rd in Florida so he is in big trouble

[dancinpants]

Will be interesting to see where Thompsons votes go when he withdraws as expected.

Thompson and McCain are basically "buddies". Before the South Carolina primary Thompson got up infront of the crowd and ripped into every stance Huckabee was taking. And the only thing he mentioned in relation to McCain was his stance on immigration. Thompson basically won that primary for McCain, by splitting the evangelical vote.

When Thompson pulls out, I really can't see his votes going anywhere else but to McCain.

[dahamsta]

There he goes then (http://www.marke****ch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BB6C183B6%2D6DB3%2D4627%2DA48A%2 D81769E305B62%7D&siteid=rss).

[pete]

They have done two Nationalwide mock Presidential votes here (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) & shows McCain beat both Obama & Clinton. It is very early though so not sure what it means.

Will be interesting to see first poll without Thompson. Could never understand why he running anyway as very quiet. At 4 months (he joined in September last) must be one of the shortest campaigns.

[jebus]

The way its shaping up it looks like Hilary will win the Democratic nomination and get hammered in the Presidentials. Her tactics may be getting the post menopause vote, but it's gonna split the Democrats, I mean I really can't see Obama or Edwards people going to the polls to support the old hag the way she's acting. Here's to 4 more years of Republicanism!

[dancinpants]

The way its shaping up it looks like Hilary will win the Democratic nomination and get hammered in the Presidentials. Her tactics may be getting the post menopause vote, but it's gonna split the Democrats, I mean I really can't see Obama or Edwards people going to the polls to support the old hag the way she's acting. Here's to 4 more years of Republicanism!


Bills causing much of the damage, running his mouth off at every opportunity. As Obama said at the last debate, he doesn't know which Clinton he's supposed to be running against. The Clintons dirty camaign certainly smacks of a desperation for power. But as you hinted to jebus the Republicans will certainly lap it up if she gets the nod, and THEN she'll know what dirty campaigning is all about.

[pete]

Bill Breaking News: Clinton to run for President (http://www.theonion.com/content/news/bill_clinton_screw_it_im_running)

Did not see that coming!!!

:eek:

[dahamsta]

Um, the Onion?

[Bondvillain]

Will the phrase "Popular satirical comedy website 'The Onion' " help?

[jebus]

Pretty big win by Obama over Hilary in South Carolina (55% - 27%), considering people felt Hilary might be able to eat into his 15 point lead last week and possibly show him up by making it a tightish contest it represents a huge show of support for Barack. He needed to get this boost going into Super Tuesday, although I think this election has shown that Hilary has the numbers to gain the nomination if they come out for her. Still don't think she'll be able to bring Obama (or Edward's) supporters onto her side if she does however

[Angus]

The more I look at this, the more impressive the Dems candidates get and the worse the GOP gets.

How anybody could think that Romney is presidential material is staggering but there is an interesting dilemma - he is easy to beat but Dems classically do not like doing the things that are necessary to beat people like this i.e. make him look ridiculous and show him up for the vacuous hairdo that he is.

Their concern is that that tactic will play in NY and Californai but not in Armpit Utah.

We may have said this before but this is a truly amazing race......

[pete]

Obama was always going to win South Carolina but he 10-20 behind in Florida, New York & California. Hard to see him winning outright without getting something from them.

Huckabee is starting to fade & Guiliani well behind in Florida so could be straight shoot out between McCain & Romney after Super Tuesday.

[dancinpants]

but he's 10-20 behind in Florida, New York & California. Hard to see him winning outright without getting something from them.

:confused: But Florida is pointless - they were stripped of their delegates. Clinton can win by as much as she wants but its worth little to her, other than to maybe give her a morale boost.

[pete]

:confused: But Florida is pointless - they were stripped of their delegates. Clinton can win by as much as she wants but its worth little to her, other than to maybe give her a morale boost.

True to an extent but not a delegate race at this stage anyway. Its all about momentum & media exposure. Sure Clinton won the popular vote in Nevada but Obama got more delegates. If it was just about delegates no one would even visit Iowa.

Average latest polls.
California: Clinton 48:34
New York: Clinton 56:28
Colorado: Obama 34:32

Obama needs a swing as he also behind in Mass & New Jersey although he does lead in Illinois.

Kennedy endorsement seems to be a big deal as up to now Clinton had the establishment support.

[Angus]

Looks like Ginger McCain is now locked for the GOP, barring a misstep or horrendous poll errors on Super Tuesday.

The question is whether this changes the intentions of the Dems - McCain for the GOP puts the South back on the table - states like Arkansaw, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, which Bush won close, will now be up for grabs because the freak show element of the GOP won't turn out for Ginger.

Having said that, the classic dem states like NY, NJ might be takeable fro Ginger as he is, in effect a Dem - amazing stuff.

For more on how this plays, watch the West Wing final series.

The good news is that somebody as odious as Romney now looks like he has shot his bolt.

[jebus]

More of Hilary's dirty tactics as she tries to the get the DNC to give Michigan and Florida it's delegates back, despite her signing up to the non-campaigning, no delegates ruling back in November. Whatever about Florida, but saying she should get her delegates for her 'win' in Michigan (where Obama took his name off the voting list as agreed, Hilary, unsurprisingly, forgot to) is ridiculous and cannot be upheld by the DNC. in fairness to them they have said that they will not backtrack on Florida or Michigan, but it makes me wonder who Hilary will try and alienate next?

[Bluebeard]

Looks like Ginger McCain is now locked for the GOP, barring a misstep or horrendous poll errors on Super Tuesday.

The question is whether this changes the intentions of the Dems - McCain for the GOP puts the South back on the table - states like Arkansaw, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, which Bush won close, will now be up for grabs because the freak show element of the GOP won't turn out for Ginger.

Having said that, the classic dem states like NY, NJ might be takeable fro Ginger as he is, in effect a Dem - amazing stuff.

For more on how this plays, watch the West Wing final series.

The good news is that somebody as odious as Romney now looks like he has shot his bolt.

It seems a four way race now, down from six. Edwards is unlikely to get the nom despite being the best option of the three leading Democrat candidates. Huckabee is trailing a bit too much to do much better than pick up the odd state on Super Tuesday.

The way I see it (possibly skewed, but how as ever), Romney would destroy Clinton, but possibly lose to Obama. McCain would probably defeat Obama, as they rely on a lot of the same vote and stand on similar podia, but would have difficulties against Clinton as she would come across as more democrat than thou.

McCain would beat Clinton with the crazy move of having Obama on board - don't think it can't happen.

I said "seems" earlier with good reason, as I think that there is a possible fifth candidate. What may or may not tilt everything is the possible emergence of Bloomberg as a third / non party candidate. He'd face his toughest opponent of the other four in Romney - I think that he speaks the rhetoric of Obama and McCain far better, and Clinton would appear too divisive against him. Romney is a far more popular guy with ordinary Americans though, and his base is less likely to suffer from a split of vote in such a case. If Bloomberg were to take as his veep any of the four candidates, you might seem him do more than just split things...

[jebus]

Edwards pulling out apparantly, he's due to make an announcement at 6pm our time

[beautifulrock]

Edwards pulling out apparantly, he's due to make an announcement at 6pm our time

Not surprising, now all that remains is who he will throw his weight behind. Could have major impact on how Tuesday goes. Could he be picked as a running mate again I wonder. Looks like that Rudy will drop out soon as well.

[jebus]

Not surprising, now all that remains is who he will throw his weight behind. Could have major impact on how Tuesday goes. Could he be picked as a running mate again I wonder. Looks like that Rudy will drop out soon as well.

It would be a major shock if he sided with Hilary to be fair

[dancinpants]

True to an extent but not a delegate race at this stage anyway. Its all about momentum & media exposure. Sure Clinton won the popular vote in Nevada but Obama got more delegates. If it was just about delegates no one would even visit Iowa.

Average latest polls.
California: Clinton 48:34
New York: Clinton 56:28
Colorado: Obama 34:32



Pete I think we can for the most part forget about reading into poll numbers too much at this point. Its been shown at this stage that in states where Obama actually campaigns he has been able to shrink the Clinton "lead" in a huge way. And it very much IS a delegate race at this point, as all the talk at the moment is of the likelihood of the race going to a Democratic Convention to choose the nominee....and as you know thats ALL about delegates.



Ginger as he is, in effect a Dem - amazing stuff.


In what sense? I know he's against the mainline Republican stance on immigration and tax cuts but thats as far is it goes from what I can see. He's staunchly pro-life, staunchly pro-war...I really wouldn't label him as democratic in any great sense.


Not surprising, now all that remains is who he will throw his weight behind. Could have major impact on how Tuesday goes. Could he be picked as a running mate again I wonder. Looks like that Rudy will drop out soon as well.

It IS surprising given that after the S.C primary he was adamant he was in it for the "long haul" - saying it on several ocassions. Makes me wonder if there was a bit of "deal making" going on in the background. A kind of "Here John, you drop out now, endorse me, give me your delegates and I'll see to it your on my ticket if I'm nominated" deal.

Or maybe he looked at his bank account.


It would a major shock if he sided with Hilary to be fair

Just reading msn.com they said:


Four in 10 Edwards supporters said their second choice in the race is Clinton, while a quarter prefer Obama, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo poll conducted late this month. Both Clinton and Obama would welcome Edwards’ backing and the support of the 56 delegates he had collected.The plot thickens

[Jerry The Saint]

Mysterious Traveller Entrances Small Town... (http://www.theonion.com/content/video/mysterious_traveler_entrances)

[pete]

I kind of liked Edwards but his "son of a plumber/carpenter/whatever" gets annoying. He is clearing look for a deal from Clinton or Obama quiting so close to Super Dooper Tuesday.


Breaking News: Guliani Out. Endorses McCain!!!
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7218879.stm)

I think the makes McCain likeable knowing Guiliani to get a role if he is President. :(

[jebus]

anyone else staying up for Super Tuesday tonight (well as much as you can anyway)? Looking very tight between Hilary and Obama at the moment and since the momentum is with Obama I think he could sneak a few wins tonight, especially if Oprah is able to win over some of the female support

[Block G Raptor]

I'll stick SkyNews on around Midnight and if it's any way exciting I'll stay up. not getting much sleep this week with all the American events!

[Poor Student]

Huckabee has won West Virginia. McCain supporters voted for him to block Romney taking the delegates.

[pete]

Got to Faux News (http://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/020508_dooms8.jpg) :D

If Romney wins California it is not over yet.

Not worth stay up for as no definitive time for results.

[jebus]

Obama takes Georgia according to exit polls

[pete]

Obama takes Georgia according to exit polls

Any word on the breakdown as Obama was way ahead in the polls? Polls have been accurate for straight Primaries its just the caucuses & Primary where Independents can vote in either election that too hard to call.

California is the closes big state for both sides.

Huckabee not happy with Huckabee/McCain "backroom deal" in West Virginia according to Faux News (http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/02/05/huckabee-wins-west-virginia-romney-camp-alleges-a-washington-backroom-deal/).

[jebus]

Any word on the breakdown as Obama was way ahead in the polls? Polls have been accurate for straight Primaries its just the caucuses & Primary where Independents can vote in either election that too hard to call.

California is the closes big state for both sides.

Huckabee not happy with Huckabee/McCain "backroom deal" in West Virginia according to Faux News (http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/02/05/huckabee-wins-west-virginia-romney-camp-alleges-a-washington-backroom-deal/).

No breakdown yet, CNN said Obama clearly won it, no question, scratch that Obama won 64-30, with 6% uncounted, no word on the Republican vote yet. Obama takes 12 delegates to 5 from Georgia

EDIT: They have McCain on 36% with Romney and Huckabee on 30 each from Georgia, with Ron Paul taking 4%, these figures are unconfirmed though

EDIT 2: They now have Obama 56-38 Clinton from Georgia

[jebus]

The have early exit polls showing

Conneticut: McCain
Massachusetts: Romney and Obama
Illinois: McCain and Obama
Oklahoma: Clinton
New Jersey: McCain
Arkansas: Huckabee and Clinton
Tennessee: Clinton
Georgia: Obama
Delaware: McCain and Obama
New York: Clinton and McCain

with the rest to follow shortly

looks like Huckabee is taking Romney down with him tonight, I reckon they'll give the nomination to McCain by this toime tomorrow

[Risteard]

I'd say it'll be futile attempting to decipher any pattern from democratic primaries for another 4 or 5 hours.

[jebus]

I'd say it'll be futile attempting to decipher any pattern from democratic primaries for another 4 or 5 hours.

From the looks of it McCain will win the Republican nomination tonight but the Democrat one will drag on fo another few weeks

[dancinpants]

I'd say it'll be futile attempting to decipher any pattern from democratic primaries for another 4 or 5 hours.

Hmmm I dunno. Calling Arkansas for her now aswell. Shes polling very well in Missouri, Massachusetts. EDIT: Massachusetts / New Jersey now called for Clinton.

[Poor Student]

Exit polls think Romney took 90% of Utah, surprise surprise.:p