2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifying Group A

[pineapple stu]

Couldn't see a thread for this, but merge away if there is one already.

Draw is on 7th December at 5pm Irish time.

We're confirmed in Pot 3 - though when you look at our form in recent years, it's amazing we actually had a chance of being in Pot 2 up to yesterday.

The pots are -

Pot 1: Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Croatia, Germany, Netherlands
Pot 2: Switzerland, Poland, Sweden, Wales, Austria, Ukraine, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia, Romania
Pot 3: Russia, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Hungary, Czech Republic, Scotland, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Finland, Greece
Pot 4: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Bulgaria, Belarus, Israel, Georgia, Luxembourg
Pot 5: Armenia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Kosovo, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Andorra
Pot 6: Moldova, Malta, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, San Marino

10 groups - 5 of 6 teams and 5 of 5. The 10 group winners qualify for the World Cup, and the 10 runners-up will join the two highest-ranked Nations League winners who fail to qualify in a play-off. But unlike previous years, you have to win two play-offs to qualify - so 12 teams gets reduced not to 6, but to 3.

I don't think we'll be troubling the qualification end of things anyway, but sure we can but dream.

I'd like a 6-team group - we could do with some shooting practice, although God knows if the games were as bad as against Gibraltar last time, that could be counter-productive for confidence.

We could be lucky and get -
Denmark (really only them or Croatia out of group 1 would be remotely manageable)
Slovakia (we were the match of them in the Euro play-off)
Ireland
Luxembourg
Andorra
San Marino

Or we could be unfortunate and get -
England
Switzerland
Ireland
Bosnia
Armenia

If we were back in vintage foot.ie days of everyone travelling to the games, I'd enjoy -
Denmark (getting utterly ****ed on would detract from an away trip somewhat!)
Ukraine
Ireland
Georgia
Faroes
Liechtenstein

Obviously the second and fourth seeds hold the key to the draw really.

<MOD EDIT - Added links>
2022 FIFA World Cup Qualification(UEFA) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA))
2022 FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification - UEFA Group A (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_G roup_A)

[Real ale Madrid]

That's the great thing about football. There's always another game, another campaign.

We have the Draw in December, and when the fixtures are out we will have 3 qualifiers in 6 days in March which will make or break the campaign. With the next set of games in September after that, the March window is crucial as SK won't have any friendlies in advance of those games. If we can get a result or two then 3 or 4 friendlies in and around Euro 21 will help for the remaining games in the campaign.

Nothing beats blind optimism

[Kingdom]

There are significant stipulations in terms of composition of the groups too:
distance, winter countries, fighting nations, etc.



Prohibited clashes: For political reasons, matches between following pairs of teams are considered prohibited clashes, unable to be drawn into the same group: Armenia / Azerbaijan, Gibraltar / Spain, Kosovo / Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo / Serbia, Kosovo / Russia, Russia / Ukraine.
Winter venues: A maximum of two teams whose venues are identified as having high or medium risk of severe winter conditions can be placed in each group: Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Russia, Ukraine.
The two "hard winter venues" (Faroe Islands and Iceland) generally cannot host games in March or November, and therefore cannot be drawn together; the others shall play as few home matches as possible in March and November.
Excessive travel: A maximum of one pair of teams identified with excessive travel distance in relation to other countries can be placed in each group:
Azerbaijan: with Iceland, Gibraltar, Portugal.
Iceland: with Armenia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel.
Kazakhstan: with Andorra, England, Faroe Islands, France, Gibraltar, Iceland, Malta, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Spain, Wales.

My preference is for a 6 team group too, as it means avoiding the NL finalists. We don't need that kind of hardship. I think being in pot 3 could be a blessing. There are a few countries how appear to be on the cusp of an upward curve in pot 3 (Norway, Hungary, the Czechs) and Russia are a bear that we've never tamed, while in Pot 2, there is the opposite with half of the countries beginning that long descent downwards (Swiss, Sweden, Wales, Austria, Slovakia, while I wouldn't be hugely concerned by Romania either).
I could cope with any combination of the below.

Pot 1: Portugal, Denmark, Croatia,
Pot 2: Sweden, Wales, Austria, Slovakia, Romania
Pot 3: Ireland
Pot 4: Slovenia, Bulgaria, Belarus, Georgia, Luxembourg
Pot 5: Faroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Andorra
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, San Marino

That said:
Denmark/Slovakia/Ireland/Luxembourg/Latvia/Liechtenstein is more preferable to
Portugal/Sweden/Ireland/Slovenia/Lithuania/San Marino (I don't fret too much for the pots 5 & 6 above)

[Kingdom]

These are the qualifying dates: As RAM says, the start is crucial. Due to weather stipulations for the winter countries there isn't a generic formula applied for matches. if we could get the bottom of second bottom seed away first, maybe the reverse at home, and then the second seed away last game in March, it would give hopefully some form of foundation, for the summer where we could really look at the squad.


Qualifying group stage:
Matchday 1 24–25 March 2021
Matchday 2 27–28 March 2021
Matchday 3 30–31 March 2021

Matchday 4 1–2 September 2021
Matchday 5 4–5 September 2021
Matchday 6 7–8 September 2021
Matchday 7 8–9 October 2021
Matchday 8 11–12 October 2021
Matchday 9 11–13 November 2021
Matchday 10 14–16 November 2021

[pineapple stu]

My preference is for a 6 team group too, as it means avoiding the NL finalists. We don't need that kind of hardship.
That's a good point actually.

The restrictions on teams in the same group are daft. Though if it means we dump Germany/Holland on the North like last time, that's one thing going for it!

[Eminence Grise]

If the draw is anything like the FAI's browser history we’ll get

Denmark
Wales
Ireland
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Gibraltar

I don't care who we get really. I just want to see a goal.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I wonder if we might not want Germany out of Pot 1. It really seems like Low is stuttering there, and it might be the best time to play them (provided it was while Low is still there).

Aside from that, no really good choices in Pot 1. People will say Denmark, but sick of playing them, so I'd prefer someone else. Portugal maybe?
Pot 2, Slovakia or Serbia I suppose. No more Wales, please.
Pot 4, would want to avoid Bosnia, Luxembourg (they've been punching above their weight recently), and Georgia, though it seems destined that we'll play the latter until the trumpets sound. Any of the others I wouldn't mind.
Pot 5, I suppose the only thing I'd want to avoid are the distant trips to central Asia.
Pot 6, if it comes to it, take your pick, I wouldn't want to see Gibraltar again I suppose because they'd fancy it.

So I'd be reasonably happy with
Germany
Serbia
Ireland
North Macedonia
Cyprus
Malta

and would be very unhappy with
Belgium
Switzerland
Bosnia
Kazakhstan
Moldova

And would be despairing at the regularity of
Denmark
Wales
Ireland
Georgia
Armenia
Gibraltar

[nigel-harps1954]

Would probably prefer to see Portugal from pot 1. Ronaldo, you'd assume, will step away from internationals after next summers Euros. He'll be 37 by the time the World Cup comes around.

[pineapple stu]

Maybe - but thinking about it more, probably what we want in a first seed is a side who'll beat the second seed home and away.

If we have Portugal (or Denmark, as I suggested), they'd be quite liable to get more points against us than against the second seeds, and that has us on the back foot straight away.

So - Spain, Germany, Belgium or France? (I don't want to endure us getting ****ed on twice more by England...)

[tetsujin1979]

Would probably prefer to see Portugal from pot 1. Ronaldo, you'd assume, will step away from internationals after next summers Euros. He'll be 37 by the time the World Cup comes around.
I think he wants to break the international goalscoring record first. He's on 102 at the moment, only 7 behind Ali Daei's 109 for Iran. Probably wants the most international caps as well, he has 170 and could break Ahmed Hassan's record total of 184 after the European Championships next year.
Might still want to try and win the world cup too. Even at 37, you wouldn't bet against him being able to play in the tournament.

[seanfhear]

I think he wants to break the international goalscoring record first. He's on 102 at the moment, only 7 behind Ali Daei's 109 for Iran. Probably wants the most international caps as well, he has 170 and could break Ahmed Hassan's record total of 184 after the European Championships next year.
Might still want to try and win the world cup too. Even at 37, you wouldn't bet against him being able to play in the tournament.
He’s a fit chap. He could still do a job for ya !

[kennedmc]

From Pot 1 Croatia, Swiss and maybe Italy for me.

[geysir]

On current form my prime choices would be

pot 1. Denmark - it would pee them more than it would us. Croatia 2nd choice

pot 2. Romania - incredible that they are in the 2nd pot.
pot 4. Bulgaria or Georgia
pot 5 is a dirty scrappy pot but Latvia, Andorra would be more of a doddle, avoid the Faroes, it's a hard rock.


pot 6 avoid Malta, "small island big balls"

[Bungle]

As already said, almost laughable that we were in with a shout of pot 2. Our real quality is that of a pot 4 team and probably one of the poorer ones at that.

I actually feel relaxed about the future which is not how I felt around 2012 or 2014. Part of it is the realisation of where we are at, but most of it is the fact that we have some outstanding talent coming through. We have bright years ahead of us I feel.

Regarding groups, while on paper you want the easiest group, it might actually impact on the team. People will get carried away thinking that we can win the group because they will look at the teams and think we can/should beat them as we did in the past, but this team doesn't have McGraths, Keanes or Ronnie Whelans etc. Football isn't like that - Bulgaria used to be a top team and they're a bigger shambles than we are now.

This campaign people need to be realistic. We won't get near the tournament unless bizarre things happen like games being cancelled due to covid and we get awarded the 3 points etc. It's about allowing the young players become seasoned internationals and be ready for the 2024 campaign. It might be that we take a few belts on the face with the youth from the 1st, 2nd or 4th seeds, but it will stand to them moving forward. Knight and O'Shea look like great talents and there are many more bubbling under. The best of them is Troy Parrott who has the potential to be absolutely top class. Even with him, in the coming months he could find himself getting schooled by Slovenian or Macedonian defenders in the qualifiers and that's part of his development. Nations bigger and better than us like Belgium have wrote off whole campaigns with a view to emerging the better for it. Yes, that's Belgium a country with a big football culture with big football clubs.

I hope I'm wrong and I look back in two years at this post and rejoice at being wrong, but I don't see it happening.

The 20/1 group that we could win:

Denmark (Croatia are better. A very decent team but we should have beaten them last year in Lansdowne Road)
Romania (a poor side living of their name)
Luxemburg (play nice stuff but we should get 6 points. The other pot 4 teams look scary right now even Georgia)
Andorra
San Marino

I think we would get a playoff in that group. The teams we would face would be superior but by then I think we will have a better pool so you never know on the day. Lots of opportunity for points and goals in that group and that's going to be important for Stephen and his young team. The public will buy into things if they see us trying to play football, scoring and winning even if it's against poor teams.

For bingo purposes we'll get
Belgium, Wales, Slovenia, Andorra, Liectenstein.

[paul_oshea]

Theres not a huge amount of difference between 2nd and 3rd, but I'd still rather we had been in 2nd so dont buy into that argument. But in terms of finishing 1st being 2nd or 3rd isnt really that big of a difference so I suppose in that sense it doesnt matter. Unless we get Denmark we are not good enough to get 1st unless some weird natural or otherwise disaster occurred.

The first 3 fixtures will be tough but you know what? I would like our first fixture to be away against the top seeds. Don't give me buy time or lets have something to play for coming into the last games, thats never worked in our favour before bar Wales away, lets get it out of the way and whatever happens happens, then we have the hard one at home further down the line. We showed in the last wc qualifying that building up a head of steam counts for little.

Realistically world cup qualification is getting more difficult regardless of what pot we are in(outside 1) because the teams are all improving around us, but also because of the way in which those finishing second have to qualify. Its very unfair I feel, given the general strength and tradition of the European leagues and International teams.

The pineapple mentioned about old foot going away, that never happened, but all day long give me some boring place like andorra or lecheinstein or N macedonia or Estonia etc than some nice place like norway or Georgia to go visit. Where we can go and get points over some nice place to visit.

Sadly, having to admit that world cups are not something we can realistically hope to qualify anymore, unless we've 10 underage teams making tournaments consistently thats just the case. We wont produce enough players good enough to win a group unless we slowly rank up to 1st, so the best we can hope for is good showings, good results and then improve our seeding.

If i was to take a Group now
Croatia
Slovakia
Ireland
Slovenia
Latvia
San Marino

Look to finish 2nd there is realistic, decent showing in playoffs and look forward to 2024. IF by some chance we were to beat croatia in one of the games, then I might start to dream.

[pineapple stu]

The pineapple mentioned about old foot going away, that never happened
The Fans' Forum archive says otherwise. Lots of activity up to to the YBIG split around 2007. Faroe Islands in Jun 2005 was a particular highlight; lots of foot.ie heads at that one. I think there was even foot.ie t-shirts done up.

[tetsujin1979]

If i was to take a Group now
Croatia
Slovakia
Norway
Slovenia
Latvia
San Marino


You might want to reconsider that selection.

[tetsujin1979]

In the qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup, the third seeds were Ukraine, Scotland, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, Northern Ireland, Serbia, and Greece.
Of these, Sweden, Poland, and Sweden qualified for the tournament, Northern Ireland and Greece went out in the play offs. So being in the third seeds isn't as bad as you might think.
We were the only fourth seed to get to the play offs.

[paul_oshea]

The Fans' Forum archive says otherwise. Lots of activity up to to the YBIG split around 2007. Faroe Islands in Jun 2005 was a particular highlight; lots of foot.ie heads at that one. I think there was even foot.ie t-shirts done up.

Ah right I kinda thought you meant pre-covid. That old foot.ie that now has left to ybig like citizen/neilmcd/conor/etc ya they all go to games.

[paul_oshea]

You might want to reconsider that selection.

Noted haha :D

[backstothewall]

I feel our best chance of qualifying is getting England as #1 seed. I feel we can pick up something against them in a cup tie type game, while the 2nd seed might be more likely to lose home and away. I agree Slovakia look weakest from the 2nd tier sides.

That and nice easy games from the lower seeds please.

England, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Andorra & San Marino would be a dream draw.

Something like Croatia, Poland, Ireland, Slovenia, Kosova & Moldova is the nightmare.

[geysir]

What we could use is a second pot team that can beat or potentially beat the top seed. We had Portugal in 2002 as top 2nd seeds, ended up being more of a friend in common battle v Netherlands, than a competing team

examples, France Turkey: Denmark Sweden: England Switzerland (okay a draw) : Germany Poland: Italy Sweden

[Bielsa´s irish]

Ireland should fear no team from pot 1 and 2, the main problemsa are the refs and Var.
Weve got to clean our mess in our patio first.

I would love to get Croatia, and Switzerland are no world beaters at all

[tetsujin1979]

The italians are a current crap , no glamour players anymore. But ref and money will help them
Are you accusing the Italian football Association of bribery?

[Bielsa´s irish]

Croatia/Denmark/Netherlands/Italy
Rumania/Slovakia/Ukraine/Austria
EIRE
Luxembourg
Andorra
S.M

[tetsujin1979]

That doesn't answer my question - are you accusing the Italian FA of bribery, and now the FA of corruption?

[Bielsa´s irish]

That doesn't answer my question - are you accusing the Italian FA of bribery, and now the FA of corruption?

They are opinions and all opinions are empowered and respected above all human rights. so nobody can prohibit freedom of thought.

My own opinion also right?

I do not have significant information about this story, but and if I had something juicy I would not tell you, I only express my humble South American point of view of a person who does not hide anything, speaks clearly and looking straight into the eyes, grounded and based on the public domain and in the facts of football history of the last 40 years at least

[Bielsa´s irish]

Ireland should fear no team from pot 1 and 2.

From Pot 1 I want Denmark-Croatia-Netherlands-Italy-England


Belgium is the form team and best squad atvm

France the champions

Germany qualifies for every world cup

Portugal has Ronaldo and a lot of world class kids

Spain is rebuilding but are getting better

[tetsujin1979]

They are opinions and all opinions are empowered and respected above all human rights. so nobody can prohibit freedom of thought.

My own opinion also right?

I do not have significant information about this story, but and if I had something juicy I would not tell you, I only express my humble South American point of view of a person who does not hide anything, speaks clearly and looking straight into the eyes, grounded and based on the public domain and in the facts of football history of the last 40 years at least
Think it all you want, but on the forum we have rules about allegations, so either withdraw and delete your posts, or I'll give you an infraction for an unsubstantiated allegation.

[Snoop Drog]

Pot 3: Russia, Republic of Ireland, Norway, Hungary, Czech Republic, Scotland, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Finland, Greece
.

Russia in Pot 3. I thought they were banned from 2022 WC, and Tokyo Olympics??

[pineapple stu]

They're banned from the World Cup finals, but not from qualifying

[Bungle]

Ireland should fear no team from pot 1 and 2.

From Pot 1 I want Denmark-Croatia-Netherlands-Italy-England


Belgium is the form team and best squad atvm

France the champions

Germany qualifies for every world cup

Portugal has Ronaldo and a lot of world class kids

Spain is rebuilding but are getting better

I'm sorry but is this a **** take. Some pot 1 teams will give us a spanking home and away. Italy might not spank us because of their style but we would take 0 points from them. Maybe, one draw with Denmark at best.

The only pot 2 teams I see us taking points off are Serbia, Slovakia and Romania and in Serbia's case, it's more likely to be 0 points than say 2 or 3. Romania or Slovakia could be two draws but I wouldn't be confident.

The pot 4 teams look ominous for the team currently. A lot of them we might only take 2 points off (at best) though with Luxemburg it should be 6, while I wouldn't be massively confident of taking 6 points off some of the pot 5 teams.

It's time to get real. We are a poor team, albeit one which should get better in the coming 24 months because of players breaking through.

The management doesn't give me any confidence. I can't imagine any manager worth their salt needing to show a video to a team if they have the power of motivation. I like Kenny as a man and he did a great job at Dundalk and to be fair with the u21s, but he has the look of a substitute teacher. I think he's had terrible luck with injury and I'd like to see him given most if not all the next campaign, but if this leak came from a player, all is not well and if it came from the FAI then the sharks are circling.

[Bielsa´s irish]

I'm sorry but is this a **** take. Some pot 1 teams will give us a spanking home and away. Italy might not spank us because of their style but we would take 0 points from them. Maybe, one draw with Denmark at best.

The only pot 2 teams I see us taking points off are Serbia, Slovakia and Romania and in Serbia's case, it's more likely to be 0 points than say 2 or 3. Romania or Slovakia could be two draws but I wouldn't be confident.

The pot 4 teams look ominous for the team currently. A lot of them we might only take 2 points off (at best) though with Luxemburg it should be 6, while I wouldn't be massively confident of taking 6 points off some of the pot 5 teams.

It's time to get real. We are a poor team, albeit one which should get better in the coming 24 months because of players breaking through.

The management doesn't give me any confidence. I can't imagine any manager worth their salt needing to show a video to a team if they have the power of motivation. I like Kenny as a man and he did a great job at Dundalk and to be fair with the u21s, but he has the look of a substitute teacher. I think he's had terrible luck with injury and I'd like to see him given most if not all the next campaign, but if this leak came from a player, all is not well and if it came from the FAI then the sharks are circling.


No team wins it before kick off. What i said is pot 1 are teams that I think we need to avoid, and others are better chances,

Croatia-denmark-netherlands-italy-england are better options than the rest

[Bielsa´s irish]

First the chaos within the team must be sorted out. 4-3-3 needs to transform into 3-5-2 3-4-3.

I will start the qualies with this team.

----------------------------Randolph-------------------------------------------

------------coleman------------egan-------------clark---------------

doherty----------mccarthy---------cullen-----------stevens-----------

robinson-------------- long--------------------connolly-----------

[Bungle]

No team wins it before kick off. What i said is pot 1 are teams that I think we need to avoid, and others are better chances,

Croatia-denmark-netherlands-italy-england are better options than the rest

Fair enough about having a pyramid of teams we need to avoid. I only see Denmark as offering us a chance of points though. I do think Italy's style suits us where they wouldn't destroy us but I think it could be 0-1 and 2-0 type results. Italy are becoming very good again even if this world cup could be too soon for them. Teams like Portugal, France and Spain could absolutely decimate us.

[Bielsa´s irish]

Fair enough about having a pyramid of teams we need to avoid. I only see Denmark as offering us a chance of points though. I do think Italy's style suits us where they wouldn't destroy us but I think it could be 0-1 and 2-0 type results. Italy are becoming very good again even if this world cup could be too soon for them. Teams like Portugal, France and Spain could absolutely decimate us.

Yeah, Belgium is the form team, but were defeated by England, they are the best atm

Portugal, France, have a lot of depth, plus Portugal has Christiano and Christiano wants the W..C, Germany and Spain are rebuilding I hope they get rid of the german coach there will be a chance.

Italy I havent seen them but they dont have flair glamour player anymore, so two defeats in 2021 and they are in a havoc

England is a question mark.

Denmark and Croatia are similar and the Netherlands are still rebuilding, good players but they dont have the players of before.

[BonnieShels]

Belgium beat England last week.

[Bielsa´s irish]

Belgium beat England last week.

Yeah, im more worried about how we are gonna improve because the 4-3-3 doesnt work, specially in attack, and with better rivals we may get a heavy defeat.

Yeah, Belgium I dont wanna play agai, but they depend on De Bruyne in midfield, since Hazard was out injured, I want Croatia or Denmark, and anyone from pot 2, I prefer Ukraine since I dont rate them, but there are worst teams there like Slovakia and Rumania.

[Colbert Report]

They're banned from the World Cup finals, but not from qualifying

I was reading about this last night. I suspect that if they qualify, they'll be allowed in, just not to compete under the Russian flag. If FIFA were serious about not letting them in, surely they wouldn't allow them to compete in the qualifiers, right?

[Bielsa´s irish]

I was reading about this last night. I suspect that if they qualify, they'll be allowed in, just not to compete under the Russian flag. If FIFA were serious about not letting them in, surely they wouldn't allow them to compete in the qualifiers, right?
Yeah they shouldnt allow them as Chile in 1994. For cheating vs Brazil. or Mexico in 1990, because they cheat on underage players those cheaters

[pineapple stu]

I was reading about this last night. I suspect that if they qualify, they'll be allowed in, just not to compete under the Russian flag. If FIFA were serious about not letting them in, surely they wouldn't allow them to compete in the qualifiers, right?
Yeah, it's a strange one. That seems to be what will happen alright. I got the feeling either (a) allowing them in the qualifiers gives them time to appeal, whereas if you booted them out of the qualifiers and then lost an appeal you'd have a big lawsuit or (b) they want to punish the federation but not the players - so the players get to go to the World Cup, the Russian fans get to watch their team (and FIFA get their TV money), but the Russian Federation doesn't make any money off it. But I don't really know.

[Colbert Report]

I hadn't considered the financial aspect of it at all, but I think you're on the right track there. No money for qualifying or competing in the finals for the Russian football association.

[Bielsa´s irish]

ok but it is unfair, imagine if a team are beating by them home and away, and couldnt win the group because of those results. Lawsuit as well

[tetsujin1979]

Seedings confirmed for the draw on Monday week, with Ireland in Pot three.
https://img.fifa.com/image/upload/t_l2/uu4jaajvcqjvhrnvhzpa.jpg

I'd take Denmark in Pot 1, but only because we've a history of drawing with them, I don't think we'd get anything from the rest
Turkey/Slovakia/Romania from Pot 2
Israel/Belarus/Luxembourg from Pot 4
and then anything from 5 or 6
I'd prefer to avoid anything with long distance travel as well

[pineapple stu]

I still think our best chance - not that it's a great chance, but our best chance - is getting a Spain/Germany as top seed, who'll do the double over the second seed.

I could see Denmark dropping a point against us but three against the second seeds, and then we're really in trouble.

Some of those fourth seeds aren't walkovers either.

[EalingGreen]

I'd prefer to avoid anything with long distance travel as well
You should be ok with Kazakhstan (same latitude at its easternmost border as Bangladesh!), since they're only allowed to be drawn with one western country in their group = long odds against drawing ROI.
Personally I'd love an excuse to go there, Covid permitting.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I still think our best chance - not that it's a great chance, but our best chance - is getting a Spain/Germany as top seed, who'll do the double over the second seed.

I could see Denmark dropping a point against us but three against the second seeds, and then we're really in trouble.

Some of those fourth seeds aren't walkovers either.

Do you think Germany aren't vulnerable right now though? Whatever about us, I think the second seeds would certainly be looking for points against them, realistically.

[pineapple stu]

Well, ok, maybe Germany's a bad example alright. Though you should never write off the Germans!

I was thinking of England really but couldn't bring myself to say I want them in our group so they can beat us and the second seeds twice

[Real ale Madrid]

At least there does not seem to be anyone in pot 2 where we wouldn't at least have a fighting chance - I mean, we have played Switzerland, Wales, Slovakia, Austria, Sweden and Poland recent enough and should give any of those a game.

We won't be stuck in a Germany / Netherlands situation like NIR were in the last qualifiers or Spain & Italy for the last WC draw. You are finished before you start in that scenario.

Best case scenario :

Denmark
Slovakia
Republic of Ireland
Luxemborg
Andorra
Gibraltar

Fair played to Luxemborg for getting themselves into the 4th Pot.

Worst

Belgium
Switzerland
Republic of Ireland
Bosnia & Hertzegovina
Kosovo

[elatedscum]

Well, ok, maybe Germany's a bad example alright. Though you should never write off the Germans!

I was thinking of England really but couldn't bring myself to say I want them in our group so they can beat us and the second seeds twice

Issue is, unlike in previous years, second place gets us to a 1 in 4 playoff rather than 1 in 2.

So the chance you might win a group with Denmark and Romania in it, is drastically better than the difference in chance you’d come second in a group with France and Slovakia over coming second in a group with Denmark and whoever.

Old tournaments = 9 group winners + 4/8 best runners up

This one: 10 group winners + 3/12 (10 runners up + 2 best nations league teams that aren’t among the 22).

We’re outside the top 24 in the nations league so we can’t gain those 2 places.