2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifying Group A

[Razors left peg]

To get a few chances we may need something like

Azerbaiyàn at home
Luxemburg away
Serbia at home
Portugal away
Luxemburg home
Serbia away
Portugal home
Azerbaiyan away

That would be an ideal fixture list I think

[Bielsa´s irish]

That would be an ideal fixture list I think
That is the best we can ask for, I wouldnt mind let the suits of FAI about it

[tetsujin1979]

Aren't the fixtures decided automatically now?

[pineapple stu]

There are serious flaws in XG.
Can't argue with many of your points there, particularly the bit about how the score in the game dictates how you play.

It is used a fair bit though - Juve made the decision not to sack their manager when in mid-table about ten games in because xG showed they were effectively being unlucky, and that was born out over the next few games as their luck changed. Man Utd replaced (I think) Rooney on the basis of his xG - he was having an ok season, but stats showed a better striker would have been having a great one.

I think to your list of comments, you could probably add that it doesn't take bad refereeing decisions into account (afaik)

But in the case of the Serbia v Ireland game, I figures the disparity between xG and result was so large that it helped back up the idea that we were quite lucky in that game. I suppose I could have been a bit more energetic and linked some contemporaneous match reports (the BBC called it "a lucky draw (https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/37211454)", while the Indo (https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/international-soccer/serbia-2-2-ireland-as-it-happened-daryl-murphy-equalises-for-ireland-with-his-1st-international-goal-35023256.html) summed it up with "A draw, given what has transpired, will feel like a victory for Ireland. Serbia will kick themselves for not winning this.) Or even linked in the thread from here (https://foot.ie/threads/215030-Serbia-v-Rep-of-Ireland-Rajko-Miti%C4%87-Stadium-Belgrade-(WCQ)-Monday-5th-Sept-2016) at the time which has much anguished gnashing of teeth at the end of the 90 minutes.

I think they all point to the same result in the end - we were lucky to draw. (And I'd be happy with a lucky draw again this time.) One way (Infogol) was easier - but now you've made me do the work anyway. :)

[Razors left peg]

Aren't the fixtures decided automatically now?

That used to happen when agreements couldnt be made but maybe they have just decided to take away all negotiations

[Bielsa´s irish]

dont know but one team lux or azerb wont play in the final matchday

[Bielsa´s irish]

Matchday 4 1–2 September 2021 i want Portugal away

[Bielsa´s irish]

Matchday 1 24–25 March 2021
Matchday 2 27–28 March 2021
Matchday 3 30–31 March 2021
Matchday 4 1–2 September 2021
Matchday 5 4–5 September 2021
Matchday 6 7–8 September 2021
Matchday 7 8–9 October 2021
Matchday 8 11–12 October 2021
Matchday 9 11–13 November 2021
Matchday 10 14–16 November 2021

[backstothewall]

Remember the last time we drew Portugal?

We faced their so called "Golden Generation" of Figo, Rui Costa et al, and on paper the best Dutch side since the 1988 side who won the Euros.

And we pulled it off.

We might not have a player like Roy Keane, or a goalscorer like Robbie Keane anymore, but I don't think this Portuguese side is as good as that one, and there is no way on earth I'd compare this Serbia side to that Holland squad.

We can do this.

[pineapple stu]

I admire your optimism!

I can't come close to sharing it, but I'll admire it nonetheless!

[Bielsa´s irish]

20 years ago. Holland had a lot of egos that undermined them plus they lost earlier to Portugal.

We dont have a Roy Keane, he was him and Gary Kelly's boots when the latter was sent to the shower. We blew it in Holland, dont forget we should have won that group.

Portugal then was a disgrace at the WC.

[Eirambler]

Remember the last time we drew Portugal?

We faced their so called "Golden Generation" of Figo, Rui Costa et al, and on paper the best Dutch side since the 1988 side who won the Euros.

And we pulled it off.

We might not have a player like Roy Keane, or a goalscorer like Robbie Keane anymore, but I don't think this Portuguese side is as good as that one, and there is no way on earth I'd compare this Serbia side to that Holland squad.

We can do this.

Love the optimism but I just don't see it. I'd bet the house on us finishing third in that group right now.

We're nowhere near the standard of that 2002 squad at the moment. I don't know if a single player in our current team would make that 2002 campaign team. Egan over Breen maybe at a push? That would be it I think. And having Roy Keane was like having 12 on the field back then.

I have hope for us in the next few years. I think O'Shea and Collins have the makings of a great centre back partnership. Similarly Knight and Molumby in midfield. And then Connolly as well as hopefully Idah and Parrott up top. Options coming through in goal as well. There's real potential there, but not soon enough for these qualifiers unfortunately.

We're just not good enough at the moment and the managers system is inflexible and doesn't suit a lot of our players.

Hopefully this will be a positive campaign for us in terms of player development if nothing else.

[pineapple stu]

We blew it in Holland, dont forget we should have won that group.
Ah that's not true. Yes, we should have won in Amsterdam - but we should have lost to Portugal twice and to Holland at home. You can't look at one side and ignore the other

[brine3]

Ah that's not true. Yes, we should have won in Amsterdam - but we should have lost to Portugal twice and to Holland at home. You can't look at one side and ignore the other

Yes, agreed there. Second in that group was a fair enough result. Anybody who says we should have won that group is forgetting that we genuinely rode our luck at times. Which is fair enough, there's always an element of luck. But "should have won the group"? Nah.

[brine3]

Egan over Breen maybe at a push?

Don't forget that Mick left John O'Shea at home.

[Bielsa´s irish]

Ah that's not true. Yes, we should have won in Amsterdam - but we should have lost to Portugal twice and to Holland at home. You can't look at one side and ignore the other

Dont remember the home match vs Portugal, but the away match was a well taken draw.

Vs Holland they started strongly but faded, we played better when without Kelly. Roy Keane best ever performance on a football pitch, he created the 1-0, he dribble past 3 dutch before being taken down passed it to duff cleverly prolongued it to and advancing finnan, a little roulette with his backheel, centered back, robbie did the dummy, mcateer on the far post, first timer from his left peg....goodbye Pinocchio Van Der Sar

[brine3]

nearly perfect recollection there... but the dummy on stam was from the duffer, and it was jason's right peg

and it started with ian harte taking the mick out of a dutch attacker (that bit usually gets cut out of the highlights) before passing to keane, who went of course went around van bommel as if he wasn't there. the 2010 van bommel would have gone down for a free

[pineapple stu]

The away match in Portugal was us being battered for an hour until Matty Holland hit a wonder strike.

We should have shipped 5 at home against Holland. Kluivert and Zenden had awful misses in the first 20 minutes and Richie Dunne and Stan were all over the shop

As brine says, we didn't ship 5, and that's football. But to say we should have won the group is nonsense.

[ColourfulPeanut]

Remember the last time we drew Portugal?

We faced their so called "Golden Generation" of Figo, Rui Costa et al, and on paper the best Dutch side since the 1988 side who won the Euros.

And we pulled it off.

We might not have a player like Roy Keane, or a goalscorer like Robbie Keane anymore, but I don't think this Portuguese side is as good as that one, and there is no way on earth I'd compare this Serbia side to that Holland squad.

We can do this.
The Portugese squad is amazing, I would say it's definitely better. Ronaldo, Fernandes, Jota, Bernardo Silva and Joao Felix just to name a few. The only place they might be a tiny bit weak is at the back but even then they have Guerreirio and Ruben Dias who are top players.

[backstothewall]

Love the optimism but I just don't see it. I'd bet the house on us finishing third in that group right now.

We're nowhere near the standard of that 2002 squad at the moment. I don't know if a single player in our current team would make that 2002 campaign team. Egan over Breen maybe at a push?

While I can't argue with that, how many of the Serbia squad would have been picked for the Dutch coming out of Euro 2000?

Ed de Goey, Edwin van der Sar, Sander Westerveld; Frank de Boer, Bert Konterman, Arthur Numan, Michael Reiziger, Jaap Stam; Paul Bosvelt, Phillip Cocu, Edgar Davids, Ronald de Boer, Clarence Seedorf, Giovanni van Bronckhorst, Aron Winter, Boudewijn Zenden; Dennis Bergkamp, Patrick Kluivert, Roy Makaay, Marc Overmars, Pierre van Hooijdonk, Peter van Vossen.

[pineapple stu]

I think our squad though is just so different as to make the comparison void unfortunately.

Given, Finnan, Harte, Breen, Staunton, Keane, Holland, Duff, McAteer, Keane, Quinn. I would take every one of those players now. Plus the likes of Gary Kelly, Cunningham, Kinsella, Reid...

I'd be more worried about 1 point from 6 when we met Serbia in 2018 qualifying

[weldoninhio]

Lots of ridiculous optimism when it’ll be a battle between us and Azerbaijan to see who finishes third and fourth. Get rid of Kenny early and we’ve a chance of third.

[backstothewall]

I'd be more worried about 1 point from 6 when we met Serbia in 2018 qualifying

Fine margins, but if we get supporters back into Lansdowne Rd for the Portugal game we'll give them a game. If we get something from that, 2 or 3 points against Serbia should be enough for 2nd place.

[pineapple stu]

I don't think 3 points will do it tbh. They'll pick up something from the other games which we won't. 4 points would be great of course, but I fear that's very unrealistic when we got 2 off Bulgaria and nothing off Finland

[Snoop Drog]

Fine margins, but if we get supporters back into Lansdowne Rd for the Portugal game we'll give them a game. If we get something from that, 2 or 3 points against Serbia should be enough for 2nd place.

Agree that 2nd place isn't outside our grasp (easy to say before a ball is kicked I know...). Taking points from Portugal or Serbia is possible even for squad as limited as ours.

Unlike previous qualifications though, 2nd place is now a tougher pathway. 3 WC spots for 10 runners-up and two highest ranked Nations League teams. So we need to win play-offs against two teams to get through.

[Bielsa´s irish]

if we get 17/18 points we would get a play off spot

[tetsujin1979]

Remember the last time we drew Portugal?

We faced their so called "Golden Generation" of Figo, Rui Costa et al, and on paper the best Dutch side since the 1988 side who won the Euros.

And we pulled it off.

We might not have a player like Roy Keane, or a goalscorer like Robbie Keane anymore, but I don't think this Portuguese side is as good as that one, and there is no way on earth I'd compare this Serbia side to that Holland squad.

We can do this.
The current Portugal side are European Champions

[backstothewall]

The current Portugal side are European Champions

And if we were facing the 2016 version of the Portugal team i'd be a lot less optimistic about getting a result against them.

As someone with a passing interest in football I did notice that peak Christiano Ronaldo wasn't bad at the game. But as a man at the wrong end of his 30s I'm also aware that things change a lot between 31 and 36.

[youngirish]

I don't know what people do be smoking on here regarding some of their insights. Portugal currently are one of the best teams in the world. They are reigning European and Nations League Champions and their squad is vastly superior to the one that won them the Euros in 2016 where they were very solid but unspectacular. They have a host of world class talent - Ronaldo, Jota, Dias, Fernandes, Silva and Felix. What great players are they missing compared to 2016 that makes them an easier proposition?

[Fixer82]

It's going to be very very tough

[BonnieShels]

Lots of ridiculous optimism when it’ll be a battle between us and Azerbaijan to see who finishes third and fourth. Get rid of Kenny early and we’ve a chance of third.

What's the point then?

[backstothewall]

I don't know what people do be smoking on here regarding some of their insights. Portugal currently are one of the best teams in the world. They are reigning European and Nations League Champions and their squad is vastly superior to the one that won them the Euros in 2016 where they were very solid but unspectacular. They have a host of world class talent - Ronaldo, Jota, Dias, Fernandes, Silva and Felix. What great players are they missing compared to 2016 that makes them an easier proposition?

They are missing peak Christiano Ronaldo.

Ronaldo dragged Portugal through that tournament in a way no player had done since Maradona in 86. He was a force of nature. Even standing on the touchline in the final he was leading that team.

He's still a danger, but at his age he just isn't capable of doing that anymore. They are a very strong side, but Dublin is a hard place to come. With a full Lansdowne Road behind us we can get a result off them. I've seen us do it far too many times to believe the people who say it's impossible.

[pineapple stu]

Half of all Ronaldo's international goals have come since 2015.

That's basically giving them a goal headstart against teams like us.

Dublin isn't a hard place to come to. Russia, Finland, Wales, Serbia, Sweden and Denmark have all won competitive games here in the last few years - Russia and Denmark disarmingly easily. Portugal are better than any of those. Germany beat us 6-1, and really should have won easily in the Shane Long game

Honestly, the comparison to 2002 is silly. So, so much has changed since then. Not least that Portugal were serial underachievers then but now they've won two of the past three major international tournaments. That'll have lifted a monkey off their back. Of more relevance is the fact we lost 5-1 last time we played

Oh, and also none of our players would get in that 2002 team.

[backstothewall]

Yeah. CR7 has changed his game. He can't play like he did in 2016 anymore, so he just scores goals instead. But no man gets to defy Mother Nature and Father Time forever.

What happened over the 2 campaigns between 2012-2016 against Germany is a case in point. Nobody wanted to face them again in those European qualifiers, but we took 4 points from them. Anything is possible. International football is weird.

12 Oct 2012 Aviva Stadium 2014 WC Qual Loss 1 - 6
11 Oct 2013 Rhein Energie Stadium, Cologne 2014 WC Qual Loss 3 - 0
14 Oct 2014 Stadion Gelsenkirchen, Gelsenkirchen Euro 2016 Qual Draw 1 - 1
08 Oct 2015 Aviva Stadium Euro 2016 Qual Win 1 - 0

[pineapple stu]

The thing is, to beat Portugal when Ronaldo is worth a goal headstart, we need to score twice. Even to draw with them, we need to score

Since Keane retired - also the start of our last World Cup campaign - we've scored 35 goals. Mitrovic has 32 in that time. Ronaldo has 41.

2002 means nothing up against that little stat. 2014 means little - we're so much weaker than then.

[tetsujin1979]

Ronaldo might not be at his peak, but he's scored eight goals in ten games for Juventus this season, is the second top scorer in Serie A, and won player of the month for November.
At international level, he scored three goals in six games for Portugal in 2020.
So, not at his peak, but still really, really good.

[pineapple stu]

I think it's hard to understate the importance of a lethal striker too.

We got lucky in the 1-0 win against Germany. Less than 30% possession. 5 shots to 19 (plus a disallowed goal). 11 corners to 4. The highlights show some really bad finishing from Germany in the first half in particular.

I've also mentioned the 2-2 draw in Serbia - they missed some great chances, in particular hitting the bar from 6 yards and the one Coleman took off the line.

There's other examples too - the famous 0-0 in Russia is a while back now but probably the most extreme example of it.

But give Ronaldo those chances and we're sunk.

[Eirambler]

What's the point then?

Honestly I think we'd be better looking at this from a developmental perspective. We're not going to qualify for the World Cup, even if we did somehow manage to get second in the group it's a one from four situation in the playoffs and those playoffs will be a lot tougher than the Euros playoffs we recently failed in, because only 10 teams quality automatically rather than 20. I'd say our chances of getting second in the group are four or five to one and coming through the subsequent playoffs would be eight or ten to one so we're probably realistically a one in forty chance or worse to make the finals.

Right now I'd be comfortable with coming third in this group as long as the starting team looks a lot more encouraging by the end of the campaign than it does now and there's a noticeable improvement in our execution of the gameplan and in the speed at which we move the ball.

I think the likes of Duffy, Hendrick, Hourihane, Brady and McClean are on their last legs with us in 2021. By the end of the year I'd be looking to see O'Shea, Molumby and Knight joining Connolly in the starting team if they continue to develop at their current rate. With Collins and Parrott in the squad pushing hard for a start.

We have potential but realistically it's going to be at least 2022 before we see much benefit of the talent we're producing. That's ideal timing for the Euro 2024 qualifiers though, which is maybe as well as a 24 team Euros is a more realistic goal for us right now. It's going to be a waiting game until then and it's going to be frustrating to watch at times, probably similar to the France 98 qualifiers for those who remember those games, except this time we're in a much tougher group so we won't be making the playoffs most likely.

It's a big year for Kenny though, he has a lot to prove in terms of whether he gets to take this team into the 2024 qualifiers - I have my doubts as to whether he'll survive until then because this year is likely to be a tough watch.

[youngirish]

Half of all Ronaldo's international goals have come since 2015.

That's basically giving them a goal headstart against teams like us.

Dublin isn't a hard place to come to. Russia, Finland, Wales, Serbia, Sweden and Denmark have all won competitive games here in the last few years - Russia and Denmark disarmingly easily. Portugal are better than any of those. Germany beat us 6-1, and really should have won easily in the Shane Long game

Honestly, the comparison to 2002 is silly. So, so much has changed since then. Not least that Portugal were serial underachievers then but now they've won two of the past three major international tournaments. That'll have lifted a monkey off their back. Of more relevance is the fact we lost 5-1 last time we played

Oh, and also none of our players would get in that 2002 team.

I agree that the 2002 squad comparison is nonsensical but for a different reason. It was built around 3 or 4 top players - Figo, Rui Costa, Fernando Cuoto and Paulo Sousa (who was past his best anyway). The rest of the bunch were mostly workmanlike home based players. They had no out and out goalscorer and often had to rely on a very average Nuno Gomes to dig them out of trouble. Have a look here and form your own opinion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup_squads#Portugal


The current squad is vastly superior and contains some of the best players in the world playing for top clubs throughout Europe. Most of the midfielders and forwards would walk into that 2002 squad:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portugal_national_football_team#Current_squad

[Real ale Madrid]

This campaign is the same as every one really.

Need 4 wins against Lux / Aze
Need to beat Serbia at home and probably pick up 1 point in Belgrade and 1 point at home to Portugal.
In all likelihood that would get you second place.

I reckon we will get the 4 wins and draw the 4 games with Por / Srb and then will need a bit of luck. We would need to improve to do that even.

If Kenny can improve the team through the campaign, we start scoring a few goals and remain in contention to the end he will probably keep his job through to 2024 even with a 3rd placed finish.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It could have been worse. Getting a single point from Portugal would be a major achievement, and I'm wary of any attempt to downplay them. Serbia I'm happy with, that's a team I think we could be capable of getting more points against than we'd lose, if we can play to the level we are capable of. Luxembourg, I'm wary of. They've had good results recently, and only lost 2-0 to Portugal last year (the second was in the last minute), and Serbia 3-2. I'm sure their coaching team will be explicitly telling them to target the Ireland games for scalps. Azerbaijan, the away trip is a ballache, but they shipped 18 goals in the last qualifying campaign and only won a point, so anything other than two wins is a disaster.

I think third is the most likely possibility, but second is far from unobtainable.

[pineapple stu]

I reckon we will get the 4 wins and draw the 4 games with Por / Srb and then will need a bit of luck. We would need to improve to do that even.
You reckon we'll go through the group unbeaten? :eek:

[ColourfulPeanut]

People seem to be very confident about getting a result against a Serbia team who beat us at the Aviva not too long ago.

Also downplaying Cristiano Ronaldo is a new one too. I don't care how old he his, the man is an absolute goal machine. I can't see us getting anything from Portugal because it'd require to score at least one goal. There's no way we're keeping Cristiano quiet for 180 mins.

[passinginterest]

Hoping Kenny has learned enough from the nations league and the England friendly to make some adjustments where necessary. He's had a chance to assess the extended squad, they've proved capable of playing a possession based game and that should help with being more effective against the weaker teams in the group (assuming we can actually score a goal at some point).

The England game showed that trying to play out might not always be the best option against a top tier side, especially with a keeper and at least one central defender who can be targeted because of their discomfort on the ball. That doesn't mean we resort to hoofball, but it does mean trying to play the ball forward quicker and playing off breaks a bit more and accepting that 40% can be more than enough if it's in the right areas. If we have a full strength squad, or close, we have pace in the likes of Connolly and Robinson that should allow us to counter attack more effectively. The key here might be having the right pivot in midfield, Cullen looks like he might have the most promise in terms of mixing a range of passing with defensive soundness, McCarthy is probably still the first choice but can't stay fit.

We're still not conceding a lot, so add a few goals and there's hope for all the games. You could never rule out a backs to the wall 0-0 or 1-1 against Portugal, the problem is you probably can't rule out a 0-0, 1-1, or 0-1 against any of the teams in the group, unless we start being more clinical in front of goal (and at the moment, none of our strikers are really scoring).

Hoping to see Kenny given a chance, securing a couple of comfortable wins against the weaker sides, taking 2 or 3 points from Serbia and nicking a point at least against Portugal, so that we're at least in with a shot at playoffs until the final group games. If there's enough evidence of progress, we should then be in a very good place facing the Euro 2024 qualifiers, regardless of making the word cup or the playoffs.

[geysir]

Soft penalty.
Cotton ball soft. The Serb ran across Walters? and dived into the contact, Walters halted his stride in an attempt to avoid him. Though in the end 2-2 was fair enough.
Just how happy was Randolph scooping that ball from the air after the Serb's successful crossbar challenge?

[Real ale Madrid]

If Ronaldo has 110 international goals after the Euros he might retire from international football. He'd be 37 playing in a mid season world cup out in the middle east. He could plausibly pack it in next summer. Don't play POR in March.

[ColourfulPeanut]

It's probably the most talented squad Portugal have had during his career and it will be his last ever World Cup. There's no way he's retiring before that is said and done.

[pineapple stu]

He also seems quite driven to keep scoring - and break and extend that record if he can.

I think we can but hope that he'll retire - but even then, they have players at Liverpool and Atletico to step up.

(What's POR btw? Portugal didn't have any games in March)

[Real ale Madrid]

If Ronaldo has 110 international goals after the Euros he might retire from international football. He'd be 37 playing in a mid season world cup out in the middle east. He could plausibly pack it in next summer. Don't play POR in March.

My cryptic way of saying play PORtugal in Sept / Oct / Nov windows when Ronaldo has retired. Not in March when he's chasing the world record.

[pineapple stu]

Ah, gotcha. Not sure if he'll retire during the campaign, but he may be that yard slower come Oct/Nov alright.