2017 NI Assembly Election

[backstothewall]

I think this is all but confirmed now.

Sinn Féin
Given the likely candidates to replace McGuinness the move from military to civilian leadership seems likely to take a big leap forward. That provides a new challenge for everyone. They choose to have an election and it isn't hard to see why. Beyond fending off the odd PBP candidate they don't have much opposition within nationalism. On the up side they have a nationalist electorate energised by Brexit and the chance to have a do over after the mess they made of Fermanagh-South Tyrone last time.

PBP
They will have a bright future but it seems like this has come a bit early for them to make big gains. Gerry Carroll will get back, Eamonn McCann pobably will, and they might even get a 2nd in West Belfast, but they needed more time for their candidates to build a profile.

SDLP
I like Colm Eastwood, and Clare Hanna is obviously a formidable operator, but after that the quality of their candidates falls of a cliff and they have massive problems local organistation. It's hard to see anything but another set of results that leave them licking their wounds after yet another kicking from Sinn Féin

Alliance
Probably as you were for Alliance. Gains are probably very unlikely and given the reduction in the number of seats they could possibly lose a seat or 2, but they will get most of their team back. David Ford looks vulnerable in south Antrim

Greens
No chance of gains with the number of seats going down. They will be delighted to retain their 2 seats

UUP
Anything could happen in unionism. The lack of polling that has been done makes this a bit of a mystery really. Mike Nesbitt seems to have solved the internal problems in the party and has been impressive in opposition. Depending on what comes out about the RHI scheme they could well be the big winners, or they could end up worse off with the reduction in seats.

DUP
They will do their best to turn this into a sectarian headcount, but everyone else will be trying to do the opposite. It remains to be seen how much success they will have. Their administration has been marked by scandal after scandal after scandal. For people who are so insistent about being British they would fit into Irish politics very well indeed.

Others
Jim Allister will get back, but the real fun here has to be Jonathan Bell if he attempts to get elected in Strangford up against his former DUP colleagues with the UUP leader hanging around into the bargain.

[punkrocket]

Mostly agree with this analysis. As you say unionism could go any way. The DUP have been making plenty of distraction noises since this came to a head but do seem to be running scared of an election, Paul Givan's about turn on the Liofa scheme won't go down particularly well with their grassroots who may defect in some numbers to the TUV who would see such actions as a sign of weakness. The softer DUP voters may also drift back to the UUP over the RHI/NAMA/RED Sky etc etc scandals as well, though who knows if it would be enough to cause the DUP serious damage. I think that they're in trouble regarding getting the numbers for a Petition of Concern though and can also see a few of their members staying at home particularly some of the biblical ones over all the corruption. Any absence of MMcG would put an end to a stop Martin campaign too which was so effective last time out.
On SF, I wouldn't say they've completely abandoned their previous image seeing as the front runner, and in my opinion the strongest candidate Conor Murphy did time for RA/explosives stuff back a time ago.

[backstothewall]

On SF, I wouldn't say they've completely abandoned their previous image seeing as the front runner, and in my opinion the strongest candidate Conor Murphy did time for RA/explosives stuff back a time ago.

If Murphy gets the gig I would agree with that, but I just don't see him as the front runner. But then everyone I speak to seems to have a different name who they think is the front runner. Máirtín Ó Muilleoir is who I think will get it but that's just me. I've heard Michelle O'Neill and Murphy mentioned as well, and even a mention of Pearse Doherty moving to Derry to lead the party in the North.

It could be any one of a dozen people.

[Gather round]

Afternoon all. A few comments:

Sinn Féin

Marty is obviously very ill. Rather than gurn about coverage of that, he should have announced his retirement and asked for privacy. Many Unionists would likely have respected that as they're pleased to be rid of him.

Are there really up to 12 possible successors? I've only seen Murphy, O'Neill and O'Mulleoir mentioned even on social media (assuming there's no real chnce of Adams returning North). 12 possibles suggests no-one is particularly well-supported, which might persuade McGuinness (unwisely) to stand again?

The slogan 'This Election is about DUP arrogance' is a bit odd. All political parties are arrogant; whinging about others being so is such childish. Time to grow a set?

SDLP

Bad news even if their vote share holds, with the loss of seats. What news of FF maybe standing up here, might they be merged in?

PBP

I've changed the order. They claim to be non-aligned, many obviously see them as a left-wing Nat party, but as suggested by only standing in three seats they are just a Handful of Independents. East Belfast anyone?

Alliance

Keeping eight seats would be great for Alliance- it would probably mean a bigger vote share.

Greens

As per Alliance on a smaller scale. As a member, I'm hoping our voters are less disillusioned with their reps than the Nationalists and Unionists are

UUP

Agreed, very hard to predict. Mike Nesbitt Anchorman has made improvements, but needs a bigger vote share to keep his job and any relevance.

DUP

I think Arlene's toast, that seems to be word on the street down Fermanagh way. Apart from anything else, she's turned a strength- personal experience of violence- into a mantra parroted as an alternative to talking to SF. And most of the misogynists pressing her are...other women.

Others

Squeaky Jim is McCann or Carroll writ large. He's grudgingly respected but that wasn't enough to get his mates elected while Arlene covered all Unionism from Big House and Garden Center to Prayer Meet and Sink Esate. Interesting how far that changes.
Indepedent Unionist Sugden should return. You'd think there's scope for UKIP but McNarry is thick and lazy even by NI hack standards.

Overall- no floating from Uni to Nat or vice versa. Hamilton and O'Neill as joint head goons my prediction.

[backstothewall]

I honestly can't see Sugden getting back. I think it was Brian Feeney who described her as the political version of a cheap cushion, and then explained it as because "she bears the impression of whoever was the last person who sat on her".

Given her performance at justice I'd assume the McClarty vote will revert to the UUP.

I'd assume PBP will be looking to spread their wings a bit further this time round. North Belfast would be worth a rattle and maybe a few trial balloons elsewhere. You are right about them being seen as a nat party, but then Alliance and the Greens are seen as small u unionists. That will always be the case until a party comes along that is truly agnostic on the union and allows it's members to hold independent opinions rather than attempting to enforce a version of getalongerism on society. As we saw with Anna Lo that certainly isn't the case in Alliance yet. Hard to say what would happen in the Greens or PBP until it happens but I would assume a similar reaction as in Alliance.

Edit: I never addressed the question about potential leaders for SF. I was perhaps guilty of exaggerating for effect, but I wouldn't have ruled out them doing something unexpected. Depending on what will be most advantageous to them they could potentially skip a generation and go for the likes of the likes of Megan Fearon, or if events lead them to want to poke the DUP in the eye they could give it to Gerry Kelly. I'd imagine it will be a bit like one of conventions the Chinese Communist Party have where the old boys go into a smoke filled room, decide what the plan is for the next decade, then the new leadership walk out on stake and are unanimously approved by the party congress.

All that being said the push they are giving O'Neill is making it all a bit obvious. If nothing else having an O'Neill running Ulster must appeal to them on an atavistic level (Terence should have played on that a bit more, we might never have had all this bother).

[punkrocket]

I wouldn't have the Greens down as small u. They have close connections with the greens down south as well as to the east. I remember one of their reps stating that SF weren't the only party to organise on an all island basis as they were doing it too. Environmental problems have a way of transcending national boundaries.
They had a bit of a scene a few years ago, about the time that Agnew came in, when a few long time members from The Larne area left in a hissy fit over having a few Irish words on their election posters.

[Gather round]

Intriguing comments on Fearon and Sugden. It's a big step from getting back in- whether on a big party ticket or as an effective indepedent- to bcoming head honcho. Surely Nolan, and co would eat the inexperienced Fearon alive even before the Unionist hacks got anywhere near her? Whereas Sugden's early promotion will have gained her some votes through recognition even if others were unimpressed by her performance at the 'Ministry'.

I'm sure Brian Feeney has used similarly unflattering terms for almost every Unionist hack that's ever lived ;)

As I suggested, PBP are hamstrung as long as they only stand in three inner-city seats. When they branch out (as the Greens have), to cover Unionist suburbia and up-country, they can more credibly claim to be agnostic on the Union. I'd say the Greens already are, as PR suggests.

If Gerry Kelly gets the Shinner gig, will he get a lift on a Police landrover?

Betting on Next Ulster Joint Deputy Ard Ri Supremo:

Michelle O'Neill 4/5
Michael O'Neill 5/2
Martin O'Neill 5/1
Skeg O'Neill 25/1
Lig O'Neill 33/1
Shaquile O'Neill 50/1
The Captain and Tennile 100/1

[dahamsta]

I'm disturbed by how polite and agreeable this thread is. Please insert some vile sectarianism immediately.

[Hitman]

i'm disturbed by how polite and agreeable this thread is. Please insert some vile sectarianism immediately.

foot.ie says NO!

[backstothewall]

Maybe i've judged this very badly but I suspect the people who gave Sugden a vote last time will be less than impressed by her acting as a human shield for Arlene Foster. Not anywhere near East Derry but where i live the overwhelming attitude among garden centre Unionist types, who I would assume to be her base, is that she should have called a public inquiry.

I wouldn't mention Fearon for the leadership of any other political party but SF are different. Not least because whoever gets the gig isn't going to be the leader. That will be Adams until it is M.L. McDonald. The dFM needn't even be the leader of SF in the north. They could very well have someone like O'Neill in the office but have someone like Conor Murphy leading the party from the back benches. I mentioned Fearon as she has been the junior minister in ofmdfm since this executive was formed. You are right to say Nolan would eat her alive but only if he gets talking to her. Can't remember the last time the FM or dFM appeared on Nolan. Trimble or Malton maybe. They could protect her very easily if they wanted to.

GR. On the Greens, as a member, are there many in the party who would be in favour of unity? Even if as a secondary concern compared to other issues

[Gather round]

foot.ie says NO!

Uladh deir er...Liofa? :rolleyes:

[Gather round]

GR. On the Greens, as a member, are there many in the party who would be in favour of unity? Even if as a secondary concern compared to other issues

There are, not sure how many there are overall or even whether they survey it internally. Four groups- Ex-Nat, Ex-Uni, Won't Say, Aren't that Bothered.

I mean at a pinch I'd consider it if the Brit govt gets any crazier...

Just to clarify, I'm registered as a member in North-West BelAir as well as in England. Cassidy's Bar is my notional address.

[punkrocket]

Sugden will be gone. She only got the MLA gig because of a residual sympathy vote from McClarty from ex UUPers and the Justice gig as there was no one else who would do it. She has been less than impressive in both roles and with the UUP having more of a handle on things than previously, Coleraine votes will end up back with whoever they put up. She was always going to have her vote squeezed anyway with the last seat being done away with. Her profile may have been raised a bit by her justice job but there wouldn't be too many who could pick her out in a pub quiz even with that exposure. I think that she has been completely anonymous, a bit like the new guy at work who bluffed his way into the job and for fear of being found out hides in the bog the whole time.

[backstothewall]

PBP have named a running mate for Gerry Carroll in West Belfast...

...He's called Michael Collins

[Gather round]

PBP have named a running mate for Gerry Carroll in West Belfast...

...He's called Michael Collins

Heh. Is Eddie Coll standing too?

I'll defer to the local knowledge on Sugden. I've a feeling she won't be heartbroken if defeated, there'll be a niche for her elsewhere even if not on the Hill.

I was quoting pollster Nick Whyte's predictions on Slugger mainly.

[nigel-harps1954]

Just to clarify, I'm registered as a member in North-West BelAir as well as in England.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/8a/41/23/8a4123f124ce1c3cc808dbfe350f14f3.jpg

[BonnieShels]

So Martin has decided to step away from politics. This campaign has gotten more interesting.

[backstothewall]

I'm going to thoroughly enjoy watching the unionists, Tories and particularly the Blueshirts paying tribute to him through gritted teeth.

He's proven Enoch Powell wrong as well...

“all political careers end in failure”

[BonnieShels]

Well we could be technical and think that resigning and getting elections called counts as a failure.

I don't, mind you.

[Gather round]

I'm going to thoroughly enjoy watching the unionists, Tories and particularly the Blueshirts paying tribute to him through gritted teeth.

He's proven Enoch Powell wrong as well...

“all political careers end in failure”

I'm willing to give a grudging farewell. He was reasonably effective leading SF at Stormont and did at least try to be civil, sometimes. Although the Chuckle Brothers thing made him look as absurd at Paisley.

But he failed to get a united Ireland, failed to beat the Brits militarily and failed to stop the DUP bettering him at Stormont.

There are exceptions to Powell's rule (Eddie Coll?) but Party Marty isn't one of them. For all that pained international statesman look he's been sporting for some time, even before his current illness.

[Wolfman]

Wasn't he a British agent? Allegedly.

And you're implying that they also have a united kingdom, when it hardly looks that way. Otherwise the usual predictable guff.
Also the Brits/unionists didn't beat the nationalists either, hence the GFA et al.

[Gather round]

I didn't imply anything. Merely suggested Marty's career was a failure and why.

Seems IPJ has made a late bid for SF leadership, judging by his eulogy on the BBC last night ;)

[backstothewall]

I didn't imply anything. Merely suggested Marty's career was a failure and why.

You're quite entitled to your opinion but i'd venture that it's a minority view.


Seems IPJ has made a late bid for SF leadership, judging by his eulogy on the BBC last night ;)

It was the exact opposite of what I was expecting when I commented about gritted teeth above. Whatever about his motives I thought he spoke with good grace and displayed a capacity for forgiveness that unlike others i could think of in the DUP shows his Christianity is about more than just hovering up votes every so often.

[OwlsFan]

I'm willing to give a grudging farewell. He was reasonably effective leading SF at Stormont and did at least try to be civil, sometimes. Although the Chuckle Brothers thing made him look as absurd at Paisley.

But he failed to get a united Ireland, failed to beat the Brits militarily and failed to stop the DUP bettering him at Stormont.

There are exceptions to Powell's rule (Eddie Coll?) but Party Marty isn't one of them. For all that pained international statesman look he's been sporting for some time, even before his current illness.

I am afraid I don't even give a grudging farewell. The man was one of the leaders of an illegal terrorist organisation which murdered and maimed thousands in no one's name, except their own. He only led them to the peace table when the possibility of power in a State which he and his followers had never recognised was put in front of him. The same for Mr. "Never, never, never" on the other side, although while he didn't actually murder anyone, his words probably inflamed others to commit atrocities. I would have some respect for him if he had organised the decommissioning and had stood back and let the SDLP take the role as the true instigators of the peace process and moral defenders of the minority in Northern Ireland.

Power is a amazing aphrodisiac and people sell their souls for it. I find it really ironic that the SDLP and the Unionist Party, the major brokers in bringing the two communities together in the peace process, found themselves marginalised and the extremists got the power which is what they wanted in the first place.

[Gather round]

You're quite entitled to your opinion but i'd venture that it's a minority view

Depends who you ask and how widely. If you start from the very narrow source of this thread, WM thinks Marty's a Brit agent and OF calls him an unrepentant gunman. By all means justify why he was or wasn't successful, as I've done.


It was the exact opposite of what I was expecting when I commented about gritted teeth above. Whatever about his motives I thought he spoke with good grace and displayed a capacity for forgiveness that unlike others i could think of in the DUP shows his Christianity is about more than just hovering up votes every so often

What does IPJ's Christianity (different sect from his parents and clergyman brother, I believe) have to do with it?

[Wolfman]

It proves he's not a total unionist bigot unlike some...
:rolleyes:

And joking about the Brit agent thing FFS. Probably.

[backstothewall]

Depends who you ask and how widely. If you start from the very narrow source of this thread, WM thinks Marty's a Brit agent and OF calls him an unrepentant gunman. By all means justify why he was or wasn't successful, as I've done.



What does IPJ's Christianity (different sect from his parents and clergyman brother, I believe) have to do with it?

I never used the word success. I said it didn't end in failure. Even some successful political careers have ended in failure (e.g. Thatcher). Ending in failure I would define and being hounded out by the electorate, the media, ones own party or a combination of the 3. McGuinness has managed to spend over 40 years in political life and has only been brought down by failing health.

All I mean by referencing Paisley's religion is that he has shown a capacity for forgiveness towards McGuinness. Others in his own party who also very publicly put forward a Christian faith as party of their identity haven't found offering forgiveness as easy.

[DannyInvincible]

Sinn Féin
Given the likely candidates to replace McGuinness the move from military to civilian leadership seems likely to take a big leap forward. That provides a new challenge for everyone. They choose to have an election and it isn't hard to see why. Beyond fending off the odd PBP candidate they don't have much opposition within nationalism. On the up side they have a nationalist electorate energised by Brexit and the chance to have a do over after the mess they made of Fermanagh-South Tyrone last time.

PBP
They will have a bright future but it seems like this has come a bit early for them to make big gains. Gerry Carroll will get back, Eamonn McCann pobably will, and they might even get a 2nd in West Belfast, but they needed more time for their candidates to build a profile.

I'm a big fan of McCann's on social and economic matters - I like his deeply-insightful, no-nonsense approach generally - and he'll be getting my first-preference vote as I'll be in Derry come polling day. That's not to say I agree with him on everything - he backed Brexit, for example, and I sense he's indifferent on Irish cultural matters - so thankfully I have the PR system to fall back on in order to give my views a more complete and well-rounded expression in the ballot box.

With the decrease in sitting MLAs from 108 to 90, there'll be one less seat up for grabs in Foyle this time round, however. There are now five seats up for grabs. McCann was the sixth and final candidate elected last time round, so he's favourite to miss out this time. Sinn Féin and the SDLP will probably take two each and Gary Middleton of the DUP will take the other.

I find it interesting that the DUP characterise PBP as "green", even though they're not what you might call hibernianist in the slightest, as far as official party policy is concerned, whilst some in Sinn Féin routinely denounce them as a partitionist party (http://www.peoplebeforeprofit.ie/2016/04/gerry-adams-you-got-it-wrong/) (because they're reluctant to back calls for an immediate border poll (https://twitter.com/MarkMDub/status/821801908042166272) without first convincing unionists/loyalists of the merits of unity "by building a grassroots movement from below, based on people power and socialist politics" (http://www.peoplebeforeprofit.ie/2016/04/gerry-adams-you-got-it-wrong/)), even though PBP are a 32-county pro-unity party in the republican socialist tradition of James Connolly.

It's clearly a somewhat insincere and disheartening politicking tactic employed by some in Sinn Féin to swat a perceived rising threat from the left because I know most sensible Sinn Féin insiders, supporters and sympathisers (commentator Chris Donnelly, for example (https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/06/25/a-border-poll-now-isnt-the-right-option-for-irish-nationalists/), for whom I have tremendous regard) already deep down appreciate the merits of making certain that the conditions exist to ensure a border poll would be successful at delivering unity first before diving head first into something that will realistically entail a lot of preparatory hard graft and failing; it's the party's long-term plan, after all, even if superficial calls for an immediate border poll have become a party slogan or mantra of sorts of late in order to emphasise the shock of Brexit.

Overall, I see the DUP's corruption and self-destructive carry-on splitting the unionist vote. Nationalism will be resurgent; might we even witness the unprecedented development of a nationalist first minister? Nationalists have grown tired of the lack of recipriocity shown by political unionism and will be keen to re-assert themselves as anything but walkovers. As an ideology, unionism has been shown itself to be impossible to work with. Can it adapt? Maybe Ian Paisley Junior's warm comments on McGuinness the other night demonstrate that a shift in attitude is possible? Nevertheless, nationalists are also still wounded and deeply aggrieved by Brexit (and all further madness since, or every time Theresa May opens her mouth), so that will surely embolden and galvanise the nationalist vote further.

I'm actually quite looking forward to this election.

[backstothewall]

Looking that the result from last time i don't think McCann is as vulnerable as you might think. He was the last to be elected last time, but the candidate he was up against for the last seat was a local doctor running as an independent. You would know better than me but I was assuming that people voting for the local doctor are probably more interested in social issues than the national question. I'd imagine there were an awful lot of people who voted for her who would have had McCann as their #2. It's an imperfect way of looking at things but if you assume the same results again I'd expect McCann to go past the 2nd SF candidate (who was Martin McGuinness last time, but obviously won't be this time) and take a seat after she had been eliminated.

Obviously this will be a different election, but PBP have done well in the assembly since then and can't have lost any support. Not sure if Dr. McCloskey will even run this time but if you add her 1st preference vote to McCanns from last time there is a quota there.

[DannyInvincible]

Looking that the result from last time i don't think McCann is as vulnerable as you might think. He was the last to be elected last time, but the candidate he was up against for the last seat was a local doctor running as an independent. You would know better than me but I was assuming that people voting for the local doctor are probably more interested in social issues than the national question. I'd imagine there were an awful lot of people who voted for her who would have had McCann as their #2. It's an imperfect way of looking at things but if you assume the same results again I'd expect McCann to go past the 2nd SF candidate (who was Martin McGuinness last time, but obviously won't be this time) and take a seat after she had been eliminated.

Obviously this will be a different election, but PBP have done well in the assembly since then and can't have lost any support. Not sure if Dr. McCloskey will even run this time but if you add her 1st preference vote to McCanns from last time there is a quota there.

You may well be right on McCann, although he himself worries that he'll be the one for the chop. Listen here from 08:24: https://soundcloud.com/irishtimes-politics/the-ugly-scaffolding-of-democracy-eamonn-mccann-mick-fealty-on-ni-politics

I was living in Manchester at the time of the last election, so I'm not entirely familiar with Dr. McCloskey's politics/platform, although I do know she expressed what are regarded as conservative views on abortion and was also heavily criticised by McCann at a hustings event prior to that election for having claimed many local women in the city regarded themselves as "receptacles for semen": https://www.derrynow.com/news/derry-doctor-standing-in-foyle-election-criticised-for-saying-that-some-women-regard-themselves-as-receptacles-for-semen/84695

For what it's worth, Sinn Féin have put forward Raymond McCartney and Elisha McCallion this time. Whether or not they'll put forward a third candidate again remains to be seen as it didn't work out last time. They had general party election posters up on the local lamp-posts very early in the week. I've also seen Gary Middleton posters on the Waterside later in the week, so I'm assuming he'll be the solitary DUP representative again. I haven't seen any material from any other party as of yet.

[backstothewall]

Make sure you are registered. 60,000 people have been removed from the register apparently. If you've been between England and here you might well have been one of them!

[DannyInvincible]

I double-checked with them to be sure and it turns out they'd never actually removed me while I was in England despite me providing my previous/Derry address-details when I registered over there with the English authority. Turns out I could have voted twice in the Brexit referendum!

[Gather round]

Ending in failure I would define as being hounded out ..McGuinness has managed to spend over 40 years in political life and has only been brought down by failing health

I judge his success or failure against the (clearly unrealistic) aims he's set throughout.Which were rather more than being regularly re-elected mainly to effectively a local authority. That would be fine were he PBP, Green or Alliance. Not a self-styled international statesman.


McCann was the sixth and final candidate elected last time round, so he's favourite to miss out this time

Again deferring to local knowledge, but does that generally apply? Even if vote shares are broadly the same as last year, some candidates may be eliminated at different stages. Dr McCloskey's vote likely crucial?


I find it interesting that the DUP characterise PBP as "green", even though they're not hibernianist in the slightest

They're easily characterised as soft nationalist because they only contest inner-city areas with lots of nationalist voters. Or put another way, if they contested mainly unionist suburban or rural areas, they'd be even less Hibernianist- Heart of Midlothianist?


As an ideology, unionism has been shown itself to be impossible to work with

Steady on. Do you mean anyone in the DUP, even Saint Baby Doc? Or even further, everyone in all Unionist parties? If the latter, who else will you work with to empty the bins- Alternativ fur Deutschland, or the Judaean Popular Front?

Sorry, whataboutery alert. As an ideology/ foundation myth, nationalism has reacted to ongoing crises in health, education, housing and public finances by forcing an election in which they say the main issues are a language barely anyone speaks, enquiries they don't really want into long ago murders, the structure of a local Assembly most voters hold in contempt, and OK gay marriage.


that will surely embolden and galvanise the nationalist vote further...I'm actually quite looking forward to this election

Nationalist vote share last year: 36%. Presumably you think it'll rise significantly, because right now that figure looks about as galvanised as a blancmange.

All the minor players (Squeaky Jim, Carroll and Agnew as well as Anchorman and Eastwood) are also talking up their chances. Of course the leaders can hardly do otherwise, but from party activists let alone voters I don't see much enthusiasm.


might we even see an unprecedented nationalist first minister?

As long as there are three biggish unionist parties and only two nationalist SF have a chance of first place. But if the DUP throw their toys and refuse to play ball maybe there won't be a first minister?

[DannyInvincible]

Again deferring to local knowledge, but does that generally apply? Even if vote shares are broadly the same as last year, some candidates may be eliminated at different stages. Dr McCloskey's vote likely crucial?

Aye, backstothewall made that point to me (my response is in post #30 (http://foot.ie/threads/219060-2017-NI-Assembly-Election?p=1904419&viewfull=1#post1904419)), so you may well be right.


Steady on. Do you mean anyone in the DUP, even Saint Baby Doc? Or even further, everyone in all Unionist parties? If the latter, who else will you work with to empty the bins- Alternativ fur Deutschland, or the Judaean Popular Front?

If you'd class them as unionist, I suppose Alliance, to be fair, have demonstrated themselves open to compromise, but I'm primarily referring to the DUP. The UUP can be intransigent when they like too. I needn't even mention TUV. In saying that, maybe Paisley Junior's tribute to McGuinness the other evening does provide some hope for the future. But the obvious reason such a big deal was made of it is because it was unprecedented for a mainstream unionist to break rank like that and indicate some emotional consideration for the perspectives of "the other side".


Sorry, whataboutery alert. As an ideology/ foundation myth, nationalism has reacted to ongoing crises in health, education, housing and public finances by forcing an election in which they say the main issues are a language barely anyone speaks, enquiries they don't really want into long ago murders, the structure of a local Assembly most voters hold in contempt, and OK gay marriage.

I think it's clear that the RHI scandal was the final straw, but there are a whole host of problems and issues related to how the DUP have been operating. Their approach to Brexit is another major issue.


Nationalist vote share last year: 36%. Presumably you think it'll rise significantly, because right now that figure looks about as galvanised as a blancmange.

That was pre-Brexit referendum, which is a game-changer for many who might politically/culturally identify as nationalist but who had previously been content living within the union for economic reasons. Maybe unionists underestimate that.


But if the DUP throw their toys and refuse to play ball maybe there won't be a first minister?

That's a possibility. I think a return to direct rule would be very much undesirable. If there's no hope of a local assembly/executive operating, I think joint authority (as the SDLP have mentioned) would be a fairer and more tolerable alternative for all.

[Gather round]

@DI, variously

For me, 'unionism' covers the four local parties, independents (eg Sugden, Hermon), and the UKIP and Tory set-up locally. Definitely not Alliance, Green, PBP or the various Labour fragments

DUP and their ideology as you call it aren't all of unionism (29% of the total vote last year, other shades of orange still got 20%). And while I've never considered the UUP to be 'moderate' in any real sense, there are people in it who aren't as unwilling to parley as you claim

Then there's IPJ's road to Damascus. Four possible reasons: a DUP leadership tilt, he wants to slap Arlene and/ or other potential successors, support for his mad parents* or maybe just early onset gaga

* in a BBC interview on Friday, his Ma broke off from eulogising Marty to say rather sniffily that of course Ian senior and the paramilitaries had nowt to do with each other. Aye, you tell 'em Duchess. And doesn't she,or at least her late husband, count as an emotionally unstunted Unionist?

Yes, RHI is a final straw, but what were the other factors leading up to it? Senior current and ex Shinners (Caral ni Chuilin, Danny Morrison this weekend) didn't mention Brexit. They talked of the same issues I listed above- Language and Murder Inquiries. Caral's grand-dughter is already at an Irish medium school. She doesn't need to bring down Stormont to secure that

Unionists- and I- may well underestimate the numbers who, while Nationalist, were happy to tolerate NI for economic reasons and will now change. But you and others might be overstating them. Census and large scale public opinion survey evidence discussed here previously suggest that the combined SDLP/ SF vote is already a lot higher than the number that wants a UI tomorrow

Remote rule (see what I did there) would be problematic whether from Dublin, London or both. I doubt Enda is too keen on it.

[Wolfman]

Except no-one's expecting a UI 'tomorrow' unless the Brits arbitrarily (and unilaterally) pull out of the North.
There'll probably be a 20 year transition period, so the unionists don't notice the teat unshackling.

Which do include the Alliance/Greens in the North, albeit usually more flexible?

As for GR being either brief or not, plus the pointless whataboutery, am 'Laughing out loud'.

[culloty82]

A rare NI opinion poll!

DUP 25.8% (-3.4)
SF 25.1% (+1.1)
UUP 13.9% (+1.3)
SDLP 12.36% (+0.36)
Alliance 8.88% (+1.88)
TUV 4.25% (+0.85)
Greens 3.86% (+1.16)
PBP 2.7% (+0.7)

Would appear on those figures that the Alliance and UUP are best placed to pick up the DUP losses, SF apparently need a 3% lead to become the largest party.

[punkrocket]

So everyone's vote up except the dup. Doesn't add up.
Maybe Claire Sugden's collapse is to blame.

[Gather round]

So everyone's vote up except the dup. Doesn't add up.
Maybe Claire Sugden's collapse is to blame

Current scoreboard (2016 Election)

Unionist 49% (DUP 29%, UUP 13%, TUV 3%, UKIP/Tory 2%, PUP 1%, Indeps 1%)

Nationalist 36% (SF 24%, SDLP 12%, Indeps <1%)

Others 15% (AP 7%, GP 3%, PBP 2%, Others & Indeps 3%)

From the above, you can see that about 4% of the turnout covers non-party Unionists and Nationalists, smaller parties and single issue independents. Sugden got the biggest single vote share, but in Foyle the small guys got 15% of the vote, led by the ant-abortion doctor mentioned above.

[Wolfman]

At least two of the 'others' are unionist parties.

[CraftyToePoke]

Dear Jesus, reduced to trying to frighten people into the old not an inch muck of the past, isn't it depressing in the extreme that, twenty years into a shared future, to hear a NI leader spouting this kind of stuff. - http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/arlene-foster-on-irish-language-act-more-people-speak-polish-775807.html



The DUP will never agree to an Irish language act, party leader Arlene Foster has insisted.

Mrs Foster said if there was to be an Irish language act, there should be a Polish language act because more people in the North speak Polish than Irish.

Sinn Féin have made the introduction of an Irish language act a key demand going into next month's assembly election.


DUP leader Arlene Foster.
Referring to the demands, she told a party event in Lurgan: "If you feed a crocodile, it will keep coming back for more."

In response to Mrs Foster's comments, Sinn Féin's Gerry Adams joked: "See you later, alligator".

Mr Adams was attending Sinn Féin's candidate unveiling event in Belfast alongside the party's new Stormont leader Michelle O'Neill.

Mrs O'Neill declined to be drawn on Mrs Foster's comments.

"We are not interested in negativity," she said.

"We are fighting this campaign. We have launched our candidates here this morning on the basis of three key principles - respect, equality for all, and integrity in the political institutions.

"That's our job of work, that's what we are concerned with."

Speaking earlier during the launch of the DUP campaign for the 2017 Assembly election, Mrs Foster said Gerry Adams, not Michelle O'Neill, is "front and centre" of the Sinn Féin campaign.


Michelle O'Neill has replaced Martin McGuinness as Sinn Féin's leader in Stormont.
She said: "So concerned were Sinn Féin about their faltering cause that Gerry Adams replaced Sinn Féin's leader with one of his own. Be very clear Michelle O'Neill was selected by Gerry Adams and she will be instructed by Gerry Adams.

"Lets be very clear, at this election Gerry Adams is no longer in the shadows. He is front and centre of Sinn Féin's campaign.

"Come election day, Sinn Féin could have enough seats to become the biggest party. Just imagine what Gerry Adams' radical agenda would mean for our way of life," said Mrs Foster.

She said she understands the anger people feel over the botched renewable heating scheme.

"No one feels worse about what happened than I do. I know for some doubts remain about the scheme and my role in it. I know for my part I have done nothing wrong. I know any investigation will clear my name.

"We all know this election is not about the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). The RHI merely gives Sinn Féin the cover to bring down Stormont and force an election when they thought the DUP had been weakened.

"Make no mistake , Gerry Adams is back and centre stage. (Michelle O'Neill) was handpicked by Gerry Adams. She will be there to seek to implement Adams' radical plan ... We are in for the fight our political lives."

[Gather round]

Dear Jesus, reduced to trying to frighten people into the old not an inch muck of the past, isn't it depressing in the extreme that, twenty years into a shared future, to hear a NI leader spouting this kind of stuff. - http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/arlene-foster-on-irish-language-act-more-people-speak-polish-775807.html

Just out of interest, what were you hoping/ expecting she'd say?

[BonnieShels]

Something not as obviously inflammatory.
You'd think given how the assembly fell that she'd have the cop on to try and row back. But no, she's so thick headed.

She's bloody useless and Unionism doesn't need her as the "leader". It's embarrassing at this stage.

[Gather round]

Something not as obviously inflammatory.
You'd think given how the assembly fell that she'd have the cop on to try and row back. But no, she's so thick headed.

She's bloody useless and Unionism doesn't need her as the "leader". It's embarrassing at this stage

Everyone agrees we're in a bad-tempered campaign for an election which every party other than SF thinks is unnecessary and a distraction from more urgent issues. No-one involved is likely to be conciliatory at this stage.

Foster's line seems to be as follows,

1 Look, I'm sorry that the RHI thing got out of hand, but we're having an Inquiry and I'm confident it won't find I personally have done anything wrong

2 Most Unionists think making a language barely anybody speaks a deal-breaker is pretty silly, even if they don't share my personal hostility to it

3 If Michelle doesn't like being dismissed as Gerry's poodle she could have insisted on an open election, even if just of SF MLAs

[DannyInvincible]

2 Most Unionists think making a language barely anybody speaks a deal-breaker is pretty silly, even if they don't share my personal hostility to it

You're missing the point, as does Foster. The value of the language isn't limited simply to how many people are presently able to speak it. Legislative protection to help the revival, revitalisation and/or promotion of the Irish language, a language native to the region and for which a significant portion of the northern population (including unionists/loyalists) have warm sentiment and undeniably strong cultural connection (see those with "Mc" surnames, for example), was agreed at St. Andrews. The British government committed to introducing an Irish language act and the DUP backed that agreement. The agreement stated:


"The Government will introduce an Irish Language Act reflecting on the experience of Wales and Ireland and work with the incoming Executive to enhance and protect the development of the Irish language."

Out of interest, why do you have a personal hostility towards the language of your ancestors?

[Gather round]

You're missing the point, as does Foster. The value of the language isn't limited

I get the point quite well, thanks. Mine is that it's importance as a political issue and so the amount of resources, time, exagggerated outrge and the rest) isn't unlimited as you seem to think.


Out of interest, why do you have a personal hostility towards the language of your ancestors?

I don't. That post above made clear I was summarising what I think is Foster's position. My own- as previously described on here- is that I hope the language survives and prospers, including in NI. That would be better achieved by support for existing speakers, pupils and teachers, than by setting up an as-yet uncosted bureaucracy with the inevitable add-on of annoying Unionists for the sake of it. And most importantly, I don't want broad local government- ambulances, public housing, school budgets and the like- grinding to a standstill over a lesser issue.

I would enact for the language. As you say, a deal's a deal. I wouldn't collapse government at any level over it.

[Wolfman]

Maybe you need to look at the reason why it's a 'language barely anyone speaks', as opposed to the usual hot air? No pun intended.

[DannyInvincible]

That post above made clear I was summarising what I think is Foster's position. My own- as previously described on here- is that I hope the language survives and prospers, including in NI.

Apologies, my mistake. I misconstrued what you'd written and thought you were expressing a personal view rather than summarising Foster's likely view.

[backstothewall]

2517251825192520

SF are getting great mileage from Foster's speech. It's all good fun and it's making the DUP look like idiots.

[Gather round]

DI: no problem.

Wolfie: people in Belfast, Derry or Newry don't speak Irish for the same reason I don't keep up the Arabic or Swahili I learned during my childhood living abroad. Because they can't be bothered. Not because some evil Brit Unionist conspiracy is forcing them to learn in secret under a hedge or whatever. My own school in Belfast (big and well-resourced, admittedly) offered Irish O-Level/ GCSE back in the 70s.

BttW: the measure of that mileage isn't a fw tweets or cartoons, it's how much their vote share increases. And not just from SDLP- for it to be significant they'd need to involve previous non-voters and pull people back from PBP, Alliance, Green etc.

PS I did like the pic outside Nelson Mancausla's office. In recent interviews, he's been claiming both that Irish has too few speakers, as I have, but also that ongoing costs are a problem, ie there will be too many speakers ;)