2017 NI Assembly Election

[DannyInvincible]

Looks like Eamonn McCann will lose out in Foyle unless he wins over a thousand more transfers than the DUP's Gary Middleton, who looks the favourite to take that fifth and final seat. Middleton will probably take a fair few transfers from the UUP's Julia Kee, which may well be enough to carry him through.

[BonnieShels]

GR, The crisis down South has dissipated. FF are playing a dangerous game now after being so so good (fwiw I hate them as much as the DUP, so to give them credit hurts) during the initial rush to replace Enda. There's no crisis unfortunately.

Crisis is what's happening over on the mainland. Have you ever seen a more clueless bunch in charge?

Anyway...

The worst thing the UUP could do is get rid of Mike TV. This won't be a great election for the UUP but if you keep changing leader what do you expect. They need to consolidate and figure out what they're at. Maybe they are a rump party and notions of the past are just that. Notions.

Maybe themselves and the SDLP should merge into a new IPP for the ages?

---

Delighted McCann is gone. Always liked him as a commentator but as a PBP member he collapsed in my estimation.

[DannyInvincible]

The overall combined designated-Nationalist (SF and SDLP) vote is up this election from 36 per cent to 39 per cent, according to David McCann of Slugger O'Toole.

[Wolfman]

Someone posted this link on another site. For results.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/northern-ireland-assembly-election-results-sinn-feins-philip-mcguigan-tops-poll-in-north-antrim-35495537.html

[Gather round]

The crisis down South has dissipated

The Police/ Corruption one may have. The Brexit/ Border one hasn't hit ye yet. The Mad Brits will hurt others well beyond Big Island.


The worst thing the UUP could do is get rid of Mike TV. This won't be a great election for the UUP but if you keep changing leader what do you expect. They need to consolidate and figure out what they're at. Maybe they are a rump party and notions of the past are just that. Notions

I think he'll resign. They can soldier on, there are plenty of other small parties. Little point in folding into theTories who are a complete joke electorally up here. They lost to your woman from the Book of Leviticus in West Tyrone (41-27).


The overall combined designated-Nationalist (SF and SDLP) vote is up this election from 36 per cent to 39 per cent, according to David McCann of Slugger O'Toole

Aye, a good result all round

[CraftyToePoke]

I visualised you speedily typing a reply as I posted that :)

If FG is making assurances re unity, it doesn't matter who has the reigns daaahn saaaf, its assured. And I wouldn't in truth term it as a political crisis, it's not day to day stuff granted, and there will be a leader change, maybe even a new government, that's all. It will come and go, like all do in that game.

Paul Givan on BBC Ulster just now, saying the message was clear, get back in and work with SF and make it work. Gas man.

[BonnieShels]

The Police/ Corruption one may have. The Brexit/ Border one hasn't hit ye yet. The Mad Brits will hurt others well beyond Big Island.



I think he'll resign. They can soldier on, there are plenty of other small parties. Little point in folding into theTories who are a complete joke electorally up here. They lost to your woman from the Book of Leviticus in West Tyrone (41-27).



Aye, a good result all round

What's the border crisis?

It won't be of our doing so I can't see it being a major issue with regards political stability. The Brexit stuff is a different story. The EU will insulate us as best it can because our success is critical to the EU's success. I wouldn't be unduly worried.

[Gather round]

Agreed, it doesn't matter that much whether FG or FF hold the reins, because when Brexit bolts it wouldn't matter if AP McCoy was the jockey ;)

That's the possible paradox. Brexit will likely impoverish both sides of the border. That will make many Southern voters less keen on a UI, not more.

Bonita- the Brexit and Border crises are one and the same in Ireland. Which isn't critical to the EU success. Compared to France, Spain or Italy?

[BonnieShels]

Agreed, it doesn't matter that much whether FG or FF hold the reins, because when Brexit bolts it wouldn't matter if AP McCoy was the jockey ;)

That's the possible paradox. Brexit will likely impoverish both sides of the border. That will make many Southern voters less keen on a UI, not more.

Bonita- the Brexit and Border crises are one and the same in Ireland. Which isn't critical to the EU success. Compared to France, Spain or Italy?


It won't impoverish us that much at all. Some economic contraction. But nothing like 2008-2014.

The North of the island however is about to hit the buffers big style. A UI is getting closer than anyone could ever have anticipated.

Now for Nicola to pull the trigger...

---

To constantly equate keenness for reunification to cost and economics completely devalues the latent romanticism of the concept.

No party in the South will campaign for a No vote never mind one based on economics. None. So again I wouldn't be unduly worried.

---

France, Spain and Italy do not come into the Brexit argument where Ireland are concerned. Why would the EU let us go to the wall when that would "prove" the argument for Brexit? It's in their interests to make this work, so they will.

[Wolfman]

Why would people in Korea be bothered GR?

[Wolfman]

That's the possible paradox. Brexit will likely impoverish both sides of the border. That will make many Southern voters less keen on a UI, not more.

Bonita- the Brexit and Border crises are one and the same in Ireland. Which isn't critical to the EU success. Compared to France, Spain or Italy?

That's the most bizarre analysis of the scenario I've read to date.

[DannyInvincible]

Delighted McCann is gone. Always liked him as a commentator but as a PBP member he collapsed in my estimation.

He's down but not quite out just yet. There's still a chance he might pick up more transfers, but he does have a bit of ground to make up. Middleton will take transfers from the UUP and the Tory candidate (who won 77 votes), but McCann will be more transfer-friendly for Green, Alliance, SDLP and SF voters, I would imagine.

McCann's Brexit stance will definitely have harmed him in Foyle, a border constituency obviously, where sentiment was and still is very much pro-Remain.

Anything in particular that led to the drop in your estimation of him?

[BonnieShels]

He's down but not quite out just yet. There's still a chance he might pick up more transfers, but he does have a bit of ground to make up. Middleton will take transfers from the UUP and the Tory candidate (who won 77 votes), but McCann will be more transfer-friendly for Green, Alliance, SDLP and SF voters, I would imagine.

McCann's Brexit stance will definitely have harmed him in Foyle, a border constituency obviously, where sentiment was and still is very much pro-Remain. Anything on particular that led to the drop in your estimation of him?

The Brexit stance and his membership of the PBP. I really have no time for any of them.


---


People Before Profit Alliance. Press Statement On Brexit Vote.

People Before Profit Alliance. Press Statement on Brexit vote.

– Vote to leave is “chickens coming home to roost” for Corporate and increasingly undemocratic Europe

– People Before Profit TD’s and MLA’s say a vote should be seen as an opportunity for an alternative Europe that puts People Before Profit.

In a statement today, People Before Profit’s TD’s and MLA’s, welcomed the exit vote in Britain and called for this democratic vote to be respected by the EU institutions

The vote in Britain is a rejection of the austerity measures driven by the EU and Tories over recent years and David Cameron. It us the EU and the Tories themselves who have whipped up racism and anti-immigrant sentiment and given succour to the racists such as Nigel Farage and the far right across Europe.

Over the last two years the EU has been shown for what it is – a prison house for workers that fosters racism, xenophobia and austerity.

Instead of welcoming refugees the EU confronts them with barbed wire fences, military patrol boats and a rotten deal with Turkey. This has forced hundreds of thousands of people to risk their lives on the open sea. Indeed, tens of thousands of people have already drowned, leaving blood on the hands of the European Union.

The EU has overseen the mass impoverishment of European workers. In 2015 more than half of Greek pensioners were already living below the poverty line (€650 per month). Despite this, the EU bullied and threatened the democratically elected Greek government to accept further austerity. In Ireland the EU forced €64 billion onto taxpayer’s shoulders and in Britain they supported the Tories in their campaign to cut wages whilst blaming immigrants.

Brid Smith TD said: “This Exit vote should be seen as an opportunity for an alternative Europe. I welcome this blow to the EU project, the EU has never been about a workers Europe and its recent treatment of Greece and Ireland shows its primary concern is not the welfare of citizens or refugees but the welfare of the banks and the bond holders.

The EU’s disgraceful treatment of migrants shows that any claim of Europe being progressive died with the signing of the EU – Turkey deal.

It’s a pity that Jeremy Corbyn, with his anti-austerity, pro worker and internationalist record did not take a lead in supporting an Exit. Had he campaigned against it the whole debate could have been pulled away from the racist and far right rhetoric. And we would not be hearing the nonsense that this is just a racist and a right wing vote. “

MLA Gerry Carroll said: “There are ‘reasons to be cheerful’ about the outcome of the EU referendum, and that ‘the next chapter is yet to be written.’ David Cameron—one of Europe’s biggest austerity mongers—is gone”, said Mr Carroll.

“The British establishment, from top to bottom is in turmoil, and Britain may well be facing its biggest constitutional crisis for a century or more. The Tory party, who seemed to be in a position of unquestionable strength just months ago, is split. And the neo-liberal project of the EU—and the European elites that have presided over it, backed by some of the world’s most powerful forces, from the US government, to the IMF—is in a deep crisis. Whatever way you voted yesterday, there are plenty of reasons to be cheerful this Friday morning.”

Richard Boyd Barrett TD said: “This vote is the chickens coming home to roost for a Europe of austerity, increasingly undemocratic and dominated by corporate interests. David Cameron and the EU are the authors of their own crisis. It is their policies of unjust austerity and their disgraceful treatment of desperate refugees that has deepened disaffection and alienation among masses of people in both Britain and across Europe and created the space for dangerous forces from the far right to emerge.

If we want to defeat vile xenophobes like Nigel Farage it is not be defending the indefensible policies of the EU, rather it will be by demanding economic justice, real democracy and genuine internationalism across Europe and beyond.

In fact, there is no reason why nasty right wingers like Farage or Boris Johnson should be the beneficiaries of this vote. The defeat of Cameron and the EU presents a huge opportunity for the left to build a real political alternative of a progressive and internationalist kind.”

Eamon McCann MLA said: “From an Irish point of view, One of the most interesting passages in David Cameron’s statement this morning came when he said that, “We must now prepare for a negotiation with the EU. This will need to involve the full participation of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments…”

We are entitled to take the reference to “full participation” literally. No matter who replaces Cameron as Prime Minister, this pledge has been made and will stick.

How the North is represented in the formulation of a negotiating position, by whom and on the basis of what mandate from the Assembly and from the people, is a question requiring a serious debate – which should start now.

We have to get away from the idea that we will be mere spectators as Tories in London and bureaucrats in Brussels sort out the future. We must make ourselves participants. People Before Profit will be making the case for an exit not just from the EU but also from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, intended to consolidate the grip of multinational companies on every European economy.

The trade union movement should make the case for leaving TTIP behind, for ditching European competition laws which prevent the use of State funds to bail out businesses where jobs are threatened, for abandoning the neo-liberal austerity policies imposed across the EU – even at the expense of crushing democracy, as we saw in Greece last year.

These aspects of the EU were scarcely mentioned in the main campaigns across the water – because the Boris Johnson and the David Cameron are equally committed to policies which favour the rich at the expense of the poor.

There is no need for the pessimism and near panic which seems to have descended on many this morning. There is no inevitable outcome here. It’s all to be fought for. We repeat the slogan we put forward during the referendum – In or Out, the fight goes on.

Gino Kenny TD said: “Rather than panic and hysteria about the vote to exit, the establishment and those who support the EU should take a long hard look at themselves and ask why the EU project has so deeply alienated millions of particularly less well-off people across Europe.

It is vitally important that this vote is respected by the EU institutions as the democratic vote of the people and I hope we will not see a re-run of the bullying and punishing tactics that the Greek people experienced when they dared to vote “the wrong way” or that we experienced here in Ireland when we voted against the Nice Treaty!

http://www.peoplebeforeprofit.ie/2016/06/people-before-profit-alliance-press-statement-on-brexit-vote/

---

That being said I would prefer him over the line than a DUPer. Naturally.

[Gather round]

To constantly equate keenness for reunification to cost and economics completely devalues the latent romanticism of the concept

Who's doing that? Not me. What I've said constantly is that the claimed keenness for unification is basically untrue. There has been no real effort nor support for ending partition since 1925. If there was, the border would have moved a few metric miles (or at least inches) beyond Puckoon. It's not the romanticism that's latent ;)


No party in the South will campaign for a No vote

No Party in the South accepts the 1920s border.

Except for the ones that do.


Why would the EU let us go to the wall when that would "prove" the argument for Brexit?

Because NI is less important than RoI is less important than France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands. The EU won't prioritise Ireland over all those others.

[Gather round]

That being said I would prefer him over the line than a DUPer. Naturally

You've no time for them except when you do ;)

[BonnieShels]

Who's doing that? Not me. What I've said constantly is that the claimed keenness for unification is basically untrue. There has been no real effort nor support for ending partition since 1925. If there was, the border would have moved a few metric miles (or at least inches) beyond Puckoon. It's not the romanticism that's latent ;)



No Party in the South accepts the 1920s border.

Except for the ones that do.



Because NI is less important than RoI is less important than France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands. The EU won't prioritise Ireland over all those others.

What effort do you think should have been made?

You are living in Puckoon if you think a majority in the South don't want reunification.

Accepting the practicalities of the border was necessary (said like a true Blueshirt) that doesn't mean we had to be happy about it. Anyway, I'm sure you'll campaign real hard against it should the time come.


And I still don't understand why the EU would disregard us, a sovereign member, wrt Brexit given the effect it will have on us, a sovereign member.

Given the overtures since June last year it seems to me that they are willing to make it work.


You've no time for them except when you do ;)

Cmon... a left-wing [sic] nut is better than a right-wing nut who is against equality for all citizens.

[CraftyToePoke]

France, Spain and Italy do not come into the Brexit argument where Ireland are concerned. Why would the EU let us go to the wall when that would "prove" the argument for Brexit? It's in their interests to make this work, so they will.

I see it like this too, it's very much in the EU self interests to look after us here if nothing more, plus we shut up and paid our troika bills post collapse like good boys and girls and caused less fuss than certain others on that front so we have that to cash in also. I honestly feel there will be a period of re setting the sails and then some lovely calmer waters to enjoy.

Also never under estimate the strength of will in the national psyche not to be seen to have to follow the Brits in this. FF have been particularly on note publicly on this and it does resonate.

Basically GR there is a swagger coming into the stroll of the south of the border collective, which you would be very welcome to join in on presently however we may well make you pay well to join later, post 2020 for example :) :)

[Wolfman]

Who's doing that? Not me. What I've said constantly is that the claimed keenness for unification is basically untrue. There has been no real effort nor support for ending partition since 1925. If there was, the border would have moved a few metric miles (or at least inches) beyond Puckoon. It's not the romanticism that's latent ;)



Because NI is less important than RoI is less important than France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands. The EU won't prioritise Ireland over all those others.

More irrelevant waffle. No party on the island has ever wanted to 'move' the border, just either to maintain or destroy it. Yet another reddish(orange?) herring.

And the EU wants to, rightly or wrongly, expand. Certainly though they shouldn't admit Turkey or any other countries bordering Russia. Someone like Bosnia would be good eventually.

So they'll want Ireland to prosper if only to prove the Brits wrong.

[Wolfman]

Anyway, eventually the Brits will bin off the North as an expensive black hole and the only people around to bail them will be...

[BonnieShels]

Scotland? :)

[Wolfman]

Maybe some of them will finally go home!!

[BonnieShels]

Recount in the Ancestral Seat aka Fermanagh South Tyrone.

EDIT: Everyone is going on about it being a great result for SF... I wonder, do they know something else we don't? Is a "victory" on?

[bennocelt]

.

Crisis is what's happening over on the mainland. Have you ever seen a more clueless bunch in charge?




Come on Bonnie! Please,lol

[DannyInvincible]

An amazing election really. I really didn't see that coming. As the partition of Ireland nears its one hundredth year, gerrymandered majority-unionism is dead.

The DUP have lost the ability to pass a petition of concern without the assistance of other unionists and unionism and nationalism are near neck-and-neck with 40 MLAs in the new assembly designating as 'Unionist', 39 designating as 'Nationalist' and 11 designating as 'Other' (assuming Claire Bailey of the Greens takes the final remaining uncalled seat in South Belfast). Never has the state of play been so finely balanced. Massive and historic, both politically and psychologically. We're in a new era. James Craig will be turning in his grave.


The Brexit stance and his membership of the PBP. I really have no time for any of them.

Latching on to Tory Brexit and believing that some form of Lexit would magically pop out of a hat in a triumphant puff of smoke was indeed both misguided and delusional. I still think the assembly will lose a very astute, progressive intellect (and important subversive) in McCann. Diversity is good and I always have a lot of time for his critiques, observations and commentary.

[DannyInvincible]

The Green Party's Claire Bailey takes the 90th and final seat of the election in South Belfast.

Here are the final standings:

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc12/poguemahone85/Capture_zpslocedw6w.png

[CraftyToePoke]

I haven't gotten a scrap of work done today with that, what a days events. Wow :)

[DannyInvincible]

A fine analysis from the nationalist perspective by commentator Chris Donnelly: http://sluggerotoole.com/2017/03/04/nationalism-bites-back/


All has changed. Utterly.

Ten months ago, Sinn Fein and the SDLP mustered a meagre 36% of the vote between them in the May 2016 Assembly election, returning just 40 seats, the lowest number for the nationalist parties since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998.

In contrast, the newly-elected DUP leader, Arlene Foster, emerged the triumphant winner of a contest which underlined both the DUP’s electoral dominance and broader sense that they were politically in the driving seat, dictating the terms for the new Fresh Start Executive.

That performance fitted neatly into a trend of election results which indicated that nationalists were voting in decreasing numbers, contributing towards a series of electoral setbacks for nationalism that was providing much encouragement to a political unionism increasingly of the view that Irish nationalist sentiment was on the wane in a post-conflict Northern Ireland.

The past 24 hours has provided a rude awakening for many who held to that fundamentally flawed view.

Nationalism has awakened from its slumber, and in the process it has delivered the first electoral results that are reflective of the sharply changing demographic realities of the northern state.

Unionism is no longer a majority within the Assembly.

In the city of Belfast, Unionism holds a mere 6 seats, one less than Sinn Fein’s city-wide total.

Nationalism holds a greater number of seats than unionism in exactly half of the eighteen constituencies.

In the three west of Bann constituencies of Fermanagh South Tyrone, West Tyrone and Mid-Ulster, nationalism took 11 of the 15 seats available.

For the first time ever, North Belfast has returned a majority of nationalist elected representatives, with the bete noir of many nationalists, Nelson McCausland, losing out for the DUP.

Of the eighteen seats lost in an election which saw the Assembly reduced from 108 to 90 seats, 16 were lost by the unionist parties.

Right across the north, nationalists turned out in unprecedented numbers.

Sinn Fein’s 27.9% of the overall vote represented the largest percentage share of the vote for any nationalist party in the history of the state.

The party’s 224,245 votes was the first time a nationalist party had broken through the 200,000 vote mark.

The 39 nationalist seats represents a 43% share of the overall Assembly seats, nationalism’s highest ever return. That figure increases to 44.4% if the All-Ireland socialist People Before Profit seat secured by Gerry Carroll is included, a significant advance on the 37% share of the overall seats secured in 2016 when 40 seats from the 108 seat chamber were secured by the nationalist parties.

The combined representation for Unionist parties will be just 40 seats, with Alliance and the Green Party making up the remainder of seats in the chamber.

One unionist political leader announced his resignation before all votes had even been counted. The other unionist leader spent the day in hiding from the BBC whilst her lieutenants borrowed a script from Team Trump and Spicer, blaming the media for their self-inflicted wounds in a series of interviews that did little to inspire confidence in their ability to rationally analyse and reflect upon the reasons for their changing fortunes.

Whilst Sinn Fein are the unquestionable primary victors of this election, the SDLP will also have many reasons to cheer.

The party will be smarting at losing its status as the largest nationalist party in South Down and Foyle, but the 12 seats returned matches the number secured in 2016, when there were 108 seats to be won, meaning they have increased their share of seats. This is important because it has meant that the SDLP returns to the Assembly as the third largest party.

The election results have vindicated the strategic decisions by both nationalist parties to progress their respective transition processes in recent times.

Sinn Fein returns with 27 MLAs, and amongst their number will be no fewer than 11 women, the largest number of female representatives returned by any of the major parties since the Assembly was established in 1998. The newly elected Sinn Fein representative tier (including northern leader, Michelle O’Neill) reflect the generational change finally beginning to take place within the party in the north.

The party is well positioned to challenge for Westminster seats in South Down, Foyle and Fermanagh South Tyrone amidst a renewed sense of rivalry and electoral engagement by nationalists which is likely to maintain the momentum driving the surging nationalist turnout figures into the future.

The SDLP’s star performers throughout the campaign, Nichola Mallon and Claire Hanna, both delivered where their fellow Belfast party representative Alex Attwood could not, and the party must be left rueing its decision to not make the necessary changes in personnel in West Belfast before the electorate forced them to do so.

The SDLP will also be delighted that two of its veteran candidates, Dolores Kelly and John Dallat, both delivered what looked to be improbable victories for long periods throughout the day.

But the icing on the cake for Nationalism was the stunning result secured by Pat Catney in a Lagan Valley constituency considered to be hostile terrain for nationalist parties since boundary changes removed the strongly nationalist districts of Dunmurry, Lagmore and Glenavy after 2007.

Catney’s victory was easily the most surprising of this election and owed a lot to a masterful ground level and publicity strategy which relied upon convincing the latent nationalist population of the rapidly changing Lisburn city region that a credible challenge for a seat was possible. It was a strategy that Oliver McMullan utilised so effectively to win and retain an unlikely Sinn Fein seat in East Antrim in 2011 and 2016. It also showed what is possible, and I would expect nationalism to claim a seat in Strangford and, possibly, East Antrim once again in the short term future, further increasing nationalist representation towards the 45-seat figure.

This is a watershed election, the first in which the demographic reality of a changing Northern Ireland has been borne out in electoral terms.

For nationalists, the distance between the aspiration and fulfilment of a united Ireland has never appeared as close as it does today.

Unionism is no longer a majority in the north of Ireland.

Never has the Union as we know it seemed as precarious.

As she reflects on her position and how she guided unionism from the dizzy heights of last May to the unprecedented lows of today, Arlene Foster must accept that she is directly responsible for delivering unionism’s worst election performance in the history of the northern state.

For Sinn Fein, the result utterly vindicates the decision to let the people speak over an RHI scandal and broader DUP approach to a power-sharing project which can only truly work if it is premised upon a genuine commitment to mutual respect and equality.

By voting in such numbers, nationalists have firmly concluded that such a commitment is not forthcoming from an Arlene Foster-led DUP. That will resonate within Sinn Fein, and their leadership will know that honouring the mandate received will require delivery before a return to devolution.

Nationalists took to the polls because they believed a statement had to be made in support of Martin McGuinness’ approach to power-sharing and in reaction to the competing approach of Arlene Foster.

Whilst it would be wrong to interpret the election results as indicating the possibility that nationalism could win a border poll in the short-term, nevertheless the results provide a powerful affirmation for nationalists that support for that project remains rock solid amongst a nationalist community whose decision to finally wield their potential electoral power has delivered in the most spectacular manner.

Maith thú, Arlene.

[backstothewall]

Aye. It would be insane. However I was only doing Walsall's maths. This is not my prediction.

Insane you say... 😂

[DannyInvincible]

In fairness to the resigning UUP leader, as over-polished as he may be, and in light of the SDLP's Pat Catney taking the final seat in Lagan Valley from the DUP by virtue of transfers from UUP voters, Mike Nesbitt has clearly demonstrated that there is logic and strategic wisdom in tactical cross-community vote transference. That is sure to come more into play in the future. Maybe not such a bad legacy, after all?...

Of course, the ever-graceless dinosaur Edwin Poots was placing the blame for majority-unionism's death solely at the feet of transfer-happy Nesbitt. (Why are the DUP just so allergic to self-reflection? As people have been saying, this should be a lesson for them in the folly of their arrogance.) After being elected late last night, Poots was gloating about his purported uniqueness (being, in his words, a "rare/dying breed" as one of the few but proud old-guard band of unionists still on the scene since the GFA nearly twenty years ago) but the fool is so dim that I don't think he actually realised the true import of his words. The man is a political dinosaur and his ideology will soon be rendered extinct; hardly much to be gloating about, if only he had the wit to put two and two together...

[backstothewall]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the stark picture that will be painted when these 90 people gather at Stormont.

The nationalists are literally going to look like the future. They are much younger, and much more female. That female bias will even make them look more colourful on TV through their clothes.

Needless to say I'm delighted.

[Wolfman]

Two great points in those last two posts.
:highfive:

[DannyInvincible]

Two great points in those last two posts.
:highfive:

In case you missed it, here was Poots' bitter and graceless post-election interview:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MonXd83c7HI

[CraftyToePoke]

They really aren't reading the angle here are they, now SF, don't gloat, don't display a trace of the hideous attitude they displayed toward you and your voters back at them and theirs. Just continue rising above these dinosaurs and get the job finished.

[BonnieShels]

Not unexpected. But Jesus he's a bitter bitter man.

I feel bad for the UUP and Nesbitt. They ran a positive campaign and sought to find a middle ground. It can only be commended. These negotiations are gonna be great.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Remarkable result. I wonder what had more traction, RHI or Brexit?

[Wolfman]

I feel bad for the UUP and Nesbitt. They ran a positive campaign and sought to find a middle ground. It can only be commended. These negotiations are gonna be great.

Not sure I do, are the same outdated dogma in different clothes.

[BonnieShels]

Unionism is outdated. But there's always a middle ground. Mike was trying to find it.

We had the leader of a unionist party suggesting transfers to a nationalist party. That is significant.

We had Eastwood talking at the UUP conference. All good things. Unionism is a dying concept, always was, so it's possible that forward thinking Unionists see it best to look for a place at the table in a positive fashion rather than being dragged kicking and screaming out of 1690 and into 2017.

[Wolfman]

More out of political expediency IMO, as both parties struggling to make an electoral impact in this era including on Thursday, a combined vote of just under 25% but there is im merit in talking to the more reasonable unionists I suppose as the possibility of the border poll/a UI beckons.

Also another take here
There may be a certain crossover of posters I believe?

(http://www.wsc.co.uk/forum-index/28-world/1273803-the-renewable-heat-is-on-in-stormont)

[DannyInvincible]

The nationalists are literally going to look like the future. They are much younger, and much more female. That female bias will even make them look more colourful on TV through their clothes.

Nationalism's Stormont gender balance - 15 female MLAs out of 39, which equates to 38.4 per cent - is more progressive than that of the Dáil (where 35 of 158 TDanna, or 22 per cent, are female) and that of Westminster (where 191 of 650 MPs, or 29 per cent, are female). In fact, it is much closer to that of European beacons like Sweden. Sweden's parliament has a very impressive female-participation figure of 44 per cent. Meanwhile, patriarchal and ageing political unionism lags well behind. Seven of the forty MLAs now designated as 'Unionist' are women; that equates to just 17.5 per cent. It is an ideology of the past both in talk and action.

Clearly, the ideals of equality, diversity and progressivism, which are the future, aren't just talking points within nationalism. They are in effect; nationalism is a much more accessible philosophy for women and, indeed, others such as the LGBT community. Actually, during BBC's coverage on Friday night, Caitríona Ruane interestingly spoke of female and LGBT members of the Protestant community giving their first-preference vote to Sinn Féin on the basis of the party's equality programme.

In saying that, I do still find Sinn Féin's position on reproductive rights to be regressive and in need of swift upgrade.

[Gather round]

Maybe some of them will finally go home!!

Charming Wolfie. Flirting with UKIP again?


What effort do you think should have been made [to redraw the border]?

You tell me. You claim you want a UI yet haven't made any effort to add any of NI whatsoever. You must realise it creates the impression that you, er, don't really want the UI.


You are living in Puckoon if you think a majority in the South don't want unification

Seen this recent opinion poll?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0304/857226-poll-united-ireland/


Anyway, I'm sure you'll campaign real hard against it should the time come

Aye, just like you're “sure” about the above.


And I still don't understand why the EU would disregard us, a sovereign member, wrt Brexit given the effect it will have on us, a sovereign member

As I said, there are two broad and linked reasons why Brexit will hurt the South. You rely on trade links with Britain, and Brussels has so many other and bigger problems to deal with. I'm neither suggesting anything particularly controversial, nor implying that you need to follow the Brits out of the EU or similar.


Also never under estimate the strength of will in the national psyche not to be seen to have to follow the Brits in this

See above. I'm saying you'll hurt economically, not that you'll follow Britain's lead anywhere. I don't think [cod] psychology comes into it.


Basically GR there is a swagger coming into the stroll of the south of the border collective, which you would be very welcome to join in on presently however we may well make you pay well to join later, post 2020 for example

I think your swagger is misplaced, but thanks for the invite and purple prose ;)


SF, don't gloat, don't display a trace of the hideous attitude they displayed toward you and your voters back at them and theirs

SF bossed the election, it would be unbelievably self-disciplined if they didn't gloat a bit. Let's see what sort of attitude they display to setting a budget, running health and education and the rest.


An amazing election really. I really didn't see that coming. As the partition of Ireland nears its one hundredth year, gerrymandered majority-unionism is dead

Calm down. Unionism doesn't die by falling below 50%+1. Gerrymandering ended decades ago.


I still think the assembly will lose a very astute, progressive intellect (and important subversive) in McCann...Mike Nesbitt has clearly demonstrated that there is logic and strategic wisdom in tactical cross-community vote transference. That is sure to come more into play in the future. Maybe not such a bad legacy, after all?...

McCann (like Tony Benn) may be happy to spend more time on politics after retirement ;)

Agreed, Nesbitt logically had to suggest a deal with Eastwood if they were to have any chance of replacing the bigger two. But before you get too carried away, the bloke's a bigot. Not because of trivia like his attitude to the Irish Language, or even the previous Unionist pact. But simply as the way he allowed Alliance to be intimidated after Long ousted Robinson was hard to forgive.


Seven of the forty MLAs now designated as 'Unionist' are women

I make it eight (Barton, Bradley, Bunting, Cameron, Foster, Lockhart, McIlveen, Sugden).


The nationalists are literally going to look like the future. They are much younger, and much more female

Up to a point. Those nicely accessorised pink outfits look a lot like the past when they're hanging out in a graveyard with old bruisers in balaclavas. How politicians deal with practical problems in health, education, housing is more important than age, gender or style.


Remarkable result. I wonder what had more traction, RHI or Brexit?

I'd guess Brexit. Both the big two were content to go with a sectarian headcount. DUP lost very little support within Unionism as a result. SF realising they needed to make more effort to get the Nat vote share up above 40% (although still lower than in every election from 2001-10) was crucial.

Overall, as my old mate Bernadette McAliskey almost said, some of the bad guys lost. Not enough of them, alas ;)

[Gather round]

nationalism is a much more accessible philosophy for women and, indeed, others such as the LGBT community...In saying that, I do still find Sinn Féin's position on reproductive rights to be regressive

So not that much more then? ;)

As Unionism got about 5.5% more vote share than Nationalism and women voters are a roughly similar proportion of both blocs (if anything higher among Unionist voters who tend to be older), maybe not as "accessible" (ie popular) as you claim.

Clearly the POC rows reflect badly on the DUP. If they go and we just have a free vote or even referendum to pass gay marriage and abortion rights, that basically gets rid of the distinction. In any case, if U & N have philosophies (as opposed to single policies) they're about ethnicity/ nationality with everything else secondary.

I don't doubt Ruane's anecdotage. As you know, it's matched by tales of devout Catholics voting for the DUP and probably isn't statistically significant (are there any studies?).


[compare]the Dáil (where 35 of 158 TDanna, or 22 per cent, are female) and...Westminster (where 191 of 650 MPs, or 29 per cent, are female)

Great. Join a UI, get even less progressive politics ;)

[DannyInvincible]

Seen this recent opinion poll?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0304/857226-poll-united-ireland/

As pointed out in the article's concluding line, a majority of those polled in that particular poll still favour unity when you delete the undecideds. There'll be no option for undecideds on a referendum ballot; it'll be a straight "yes" or "no" question.

Also, the pollsters don't seem to have factored the economic benefits and financial incentives of unity (http://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1879265&viewfull=1#post1879265) into their equation or question; they've factored only their estimation of what they think the cost to the Irish government may be based (oddly and inexplicably) upon current UK government budget accounts. So, they've not really properly catered for the context of any unity scenario fairly and have loaded the question with a particularly negative bias.

Also, it's a really peculiar means of working out the supposed cost of unity. Current cost figures to the UK government are the costs of partition; they're not necessarily the future cost of reunification. You can't just assume the exact same economic scenario will exist post-unity when you will by then have removed one of the most significant stifling factors upon economic recovery, development and prosperity for the island economy; that being the border. The island can't afford partition as it is and Brexit will only make things worse. The border has impoverished people on both sides, but especially those in the north and around the border region in latter times.

Here's another southern poll from last July where two thirds of those polled said they'd back unity tomorrow: http://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-referendum-recovery-2901609-Jul2016/


Calm down. Unionism doesn't die by falling below 50%+1. Gerrymandering ended decades ago.

I used the term "majority-unionism". Majority-unionism is dead. As in, unionism has lost its long-standing and psychologically-significant parliamentary majority. That's beyond dispute.

The statelet is a gerrymandered entity in itself. Formed on the basis of a crude sectarian headcount, it's continued existence has essentially been the effect and sustenance of a gerrymander.


McCann (like Tony Benn) may be happy to spend more time on politics after retirement ;)

To be honest, I suspect the tie-less and leather jacket-wearing McCann probably felt a bit out of place in Stormont, with its stuffy norms when it comes to shirts, ties (although I acknowledge there has been no formal stipulation on wearing these since last year), jackets/blazers and so forth. Of course, his politics obviously had the effect of isolating and alienating him in the chamber too, maybe even more so. Subversive/alternative commentary and grassroots activism/agitation probably suit McCann better than parliamentarism with all its suffocating procedures and formalities, as he may see it.


Agreed, Nesbitt logically had to suggest a deal with Eastwood if they were to have any chance of replacing the bigger two. But before you get too carried away, the bloke's a bigot. Not because of trivia like his attitude to the Irish Language, or even the previous Unionist pact. But simply as the way he allowed Alliance to be intimidated after Long ousted Robinson was hard to forgive.

Ha, don't worry; there was never any fear of me getting carried away engaging in apologia for Mike Nesbitt, so criticise him all you like.


I make it eight (Barton, Bradley, Bunting, Cameron, Foster, Lockhart, McIlveen, Sugden).

Sorry, aye, that brings it to 20 per cent. I'd overlooked the independent Sugden. 20 per cent is still pretty poor, mind.


How politicians deal with practical problems in health, education, housing is more important than age, gender or style.

It's not just a superficial or cosmetic matter though. Having more female representatives is a material indication of practical improvements in society, or a particular political sphere, and of enhanced socio-political mobility for at least one social group that has been historically marginalised from public and societal (rather than "traditional" familial) life and roles. More women are now achieving through education in ways that only men tended to do in the not-so-distant past, for example. That's obviously something that still requires work in society overall, but the effects are already more apparent in the more progressive political spheres.

[BonnieShels]

You tell me. You claim you want a UI yet haven't made any effort to add any of NI whatsoever. You must realise it creates the impression that you, er, don't really want the UI.

Is this a serious question? Are you unaware of the equality strife that existed since 1969 onward and the resulting constitutional settlement in 1998.
There were various ways and means to change the partition (Was it Heath or Wilson who proposed jettisoning South Armagh?), but what realistically would be achieved or how would a Southern Govt have a achieved it? DO you think a unilateral invasion a la Crimea would have proved to you that we reeeeeeally want reunification?

You play the cards you've been dealt!




Seen this recent opinion poll?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0304/857226-poll-united-ireland/

A classic "leading question is leading"... You realise that on the ballot paper that the question will not mention costs right? And €9bn? What will cost €9bn? Is that an ongoing cost? Is it once off? Pointless question.

As it happens did see it. And I thought it's publication timing was interesting.

I also never heard of the crowd who conducted it and I'm sure they'll publish many more conveniently timed polls in the future.

As it stands though if you discount the don't knows, because they won't count in any ballot, the result is No: 49.54 Yes:50.46

A slim majority but a majority. Similar to what Poots claimed "victory" on.

The fact that the don't knows outnumbered the For/Againsts show that there is an emotional tie that gets muddied with cash. Again, there's no point debating a united Ireland on costs because it will never be fight on costs. It is a pure and unadulterated emotional issue. Also, €9bn is a steal based on the non-apportioned costs. 1.8m extra population. Proper reasoned spatial strategies abound!





Aye, just like you're “sure” about the above.



As I said, there are two broad and linked reasons why Brexit will hurt the South. You rely on trade links with Britain, and Brussels has so many other and bigger problems to deal with. I'm neither suggesting anything particularly controversial, nor implying that you need to follow the Brits out of the EU or similar.

Aye, the success of the EU ad it's member states. Of which we are one. FG are dealing with Europe on behalf of NI as well because London doesn't give a crap. NI is at the forefront of our governments negotiation stance.

[DannyInvincible]

So not that much more then? ;)

As far as I'm aware, there is significant support for the pro-choice position within political nationalism and at party grassroots levels (especially within SF, where cumainn have discussed and tabled motions for radical overhaul) and I would imagine that will become official policy in the not-so-distant future. Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but we shall see... Can the same be said for political unionism, which appears to be inherently conservative, reactionary and traditionalist, or permanently stuck in the past when it's not being dragged out of it by others, in other words? I perceive attitudes to abortion and reproductive rights to be more hardline generally within political unionism. Correct me if I'm wrong.


As Unionism got about 5.5% more vote share than Nationalism and women voters are a roughly similar proportion of both blocs (if anything higher among Unionist voters who tend to be older), maybe not as "accessible" (ie popular) as you claim.

I'm not sure what you mean. I meant that accessing political nationalism's upper ceilings evidently appears to be easier for women (seeing as a significantly greater proportion of women have done so) than the passage for women generally to the top brass of political unionism.


Clearly the POC rows reflect badly on the DUP. If they go and we just have a free vote or even referendum to pass gay marriage and abortion rights, that basically gets rid of the distinction. In any case, if U & N have philosophies (as opposed to single policies) they're about ethnicity/ nationality with everything else secondary.

My republicanism or nationalism is based on rational, economic, political, social, historical, cultural and emotional factors. All are crucial, as far as I'm concerned.


I don't doubt Ruane's anecdotage. As you know, it's matched by tales of devout Catholics voting for the DUP and probably isn't statistically significant (are there any studies?).

It was anecdotal, admittedly, and I'm unaware of any studies, nor did Ruane refer to any. It was simply based upon her experience from having purportedly talked with Protestant women and Protestant members of the LGBT community on the doorsteps in the run-up to the election.


Great. Join a UI, get even less progressive politics ;)

Ha, the stuffy southern establishment could do with a shake-up too, but that is afoot, if not underway. ;)

[Wolfman]

Another poll.
http://www.thejournal.ie/northern-ireland-3272747-Mar2017/

[bennocelt]

Nationalism's Stormont gender balance - 15 female MLAs out of 39, which equates to 38.4 per cent - is more progressive than that of the Dáil (where 35 of 158 TDanna, or 22 per cent, are female) and that of Westminster (where 191 of 650 MPs, or 29 per cent, are female). In fact, it is much closer to that of European beacons like Sweden. Sweden's parliament has a very impressive female-participation figure of 44 per cent. Meanwhile, patriarchal and ageing political unionism lags well behind. Seven of the forty MLAs now designated as 'Unionist' are women; that equates to just 17.5 per cent. It is an ideology of the past both in talk and action.

Clearly, the ideals of equality, diversity and progressivism, which are the future, aren't just talking points within nationalism. They are in effect; nationalism is a much more accessible philosophy for women and, indeed, others such as the LGBT community. Actually, during BBC's coverage on Friday night, Caitríona Ruane interestingly spoke of female and LGBT members of the Protestant community giving their first-preference vote to Sinn Féin on the basis of the party's equality programme.

In saying that, I do still find Sinn Féin's position on reproductive rights to be regressive and in need of swift upgrade.

What, rape capital of Europe? In any case, aren't we all gender neutral these days so what does it matter:p

I would say the number of Protestants voting for SF would be minuscule

[Wolfman]

Charming Wolfie. Flirting with UKIP again?

Anything but. Just hoping their bigoted voters take note and go back to the country they're so fixated on...


You tell me. You claim you want a UI yet haven't made any effort to add any of NI whatsoever. You must realise it creates the impression that you, er, don't really want the UI.
Who's 'You'? Did you not notice 30 years of the Troubles?
:rolleyes:


As I said, there are two broad and linked reasons why Brexit will hurt the South. You rely on trade links with Britain, and Brussels has so many other and bigger problems to deal with. I'm neither suggesting anything particularly controversial, nor implying that you need to follow the Brits out of the EU or similar.

This as ever makes no sense. If anything the EU will do more for Ireland as they don't want other countries feeling susceptible to having to leave!


Unionism doesn't die by falling below 50%+1. Gerrymandering ended decades ago.
Except the whole territory was based on this and its legacy doesn't just disappear overnight FFS.
:angry:


I make it eight (Barton, Bradley, Bunting, Cameron, Foster, Lockhart, McIlveen, Sugden).
There's no way Foster's a 'woman'!


I'd guess Brexit. Both the big two were content to go with a sectarian headcount. DUP lost very little support within Unionism as a result. SF realising they needed to make more effort to get the Nat vote share up above 40% (although still lower than in every election from 2001-10) was crucial.
You do realise there's far more parties and candidates standing...


Overall, as my old mate Bernadette McAliskey almost said, some of the bad guys lost.
More drivel that makes no sense.

[Wolfman]

What, rape capital of Europe?
No, that's based purely on Fake News. Based on that cretin Frump and other morons.


I would say the number of Protestants voting for SF would be minuscule
Whereas the number of Catholics voting DUP would be, er, 'huge'?

[DannyInvincible]

What, rape capital of Europe?

Referring to Sweden as the "rape capital of Europe" is not merely to grossly simplify reality; it is to either completely misinterpret or misrepresent the statistics and how they are recorded, which is different from other European states on account of definition (and that difference is actually a result of progressive policy and attitudes aimed at protecting women).

The Swedish government explains here: http://www.government.se/articles/2017/02/facts-about-migration-and-crime-in-sweden/


Claim: "There has been a major increase in the number of rapes in Sweden."

Facts: The number of reported rapes in Sweden has risen. But the definition of rape has broadened over time, which makes it difficult to compare the figures. It is also misleading to compare the figures with other countries, as many acts that are considered rape under Swedish law are not considered rape in many other countries.

For example: If a woman in Sweden reports that she has been raped by her husband every night for a year, that is counted as 365 separate offences; in most other countries this would be registered as a single offence, or would not be registered as an offence at all.

Willingness to report such offences also differs dramatically between countries. A culture in which these crimes are talked about openly, and victims are not blamed, will also have more cases reported. Sweden has made a conscious effort to encourage women to report any offence.

Read more about the legal implications of the term 'rape' (in Swedish):

•http://www.notisum.se/rnp/sls/lag/19620700.htm#K6
•https://www.bra.se/download/18.37179ae158196cb172d6047/1483969937948/2017_1_Nationella_trygghetsundersokningen_2016.pdf

Also, see this response by the BBC to the claims recently by Donald Trump and Nigel Farage that Sweden/Malmö is "the rape capital of Europe" (with immigrants being disingenuously blamed for what is a misrepresentation anyway): http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39056786


The claim: Many young male migrants arrived in Sweden over the past few years, when the country accepted unprecedented numbers of refugees, and there has been a huge rise in sexual crime in Sweden especially in the southern port city of Malmo.

Reality Check verdict: Malmo, along with other urban centres in Sweden, has one of the highest levels of reported rapes in proportion to population in the EU, mainly due to the strictness of Swedish laws and how rape is recorded in the country.

The rate of reported rapes in Malmo has not dramatically risen in recent years and has in fact declined from its peak in 2010, before the recent large increases in refugees.

It is not possible to connect crimes to the ethnicity of the perpetrators as such data is not published.

...

Have there been more sexual offences in Sweden?

"Sexual offences" is a very broad term, which refers to a range of all sex-related crimes in Sweden.

Rape is one of the sexual offences, but other crimes such as paying for sex, sexual harassment, indecent exposure, sexual exploitation, molestation and trafficking are included in the numbers as well.

The figures peaked in 2014. The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Bra) says this rise is due to the changes to the legislation in 2013, which made it tougher.

Similar increases in the number of reported cases were seen in 2006, after new sex offence legislation came into force in April 2005.

Since then, Sweden has recorded every reported case of sexual violence separately.

That means, as Susanne Lekengard from Bra explains, that if a person comes to the police and reports being raped by a partner or husband every day for the past year, the police will record each of these events.

In many other countries these incidents would be recorded just once: one victim, one type of crime and one record.

Also, paying for sex became one of the crimes counted in the statistics.

During 2015, the year in which Sweden took the largest number of asylum seekers, the number of reported sex crimes and rapes actually decreased by 11% and 12% respectively compared with 2014 - 18,100 sex offences were reported to the police, of which 5,920 were classified as rape.

Preliminary figures for 2016 show a rise, bringing the latest figures close to 2014 values.

Susanne Lekengard says the rise of the number of sexual molestation cases in 2016 is due to a higher number of reported cases of sexual harassment amongst teenagers at summer music festivals.

Sweden does not publish the ethnicity or national background of perpetrators of any crime, including sexual offences.

...

What about rape in Malmo?

According to Bra, the number of reported rape cases in proportion to the population in the municipality of Malmo has not seen a sharp increase since the biggest group of refugees arrived.

Reported rapes per 100,000 inhabitants peaked in 2008, 2010 and 2011, and the figures were higher for those pre-refugee influx years than in 2015 and 2016.

In addition, the reported rape figures were not higher in the Malmo municipality, compared with two other major urban municipalities in Sweden: the capital Stockholm and Gothenburg in the west.

...

What about an international comparison?

It is very hard to compare sex-related offences and rape across the world.

Police procedures and legal definitions vary widely around the world, making an international comparison meaningless.

The 2012 UN international rape rate comparison showed Sweden to have the highest rate of rape in Europe and the second highest in the world, but the report did not contain data for a total of 63 countries that did not submit any statistics, including, for example, South Africa, where other earlier surveys indicated a very high rape rate.

The most recent Eurostat data for the 28 EU countries also puts Sweden in the top spot.

But the agency warns that comparisons between different countries should be avoided because of differences between their legal and criminal justice systems, recording practices, reporting rates, efficiencies of criminal justice organisations and types of offences included in the categories.

There has also been a public debate in Sweden over the past two decades to raise awareness and encourage women to go to the police if they have been attacked.

This has resulted in a higher report rate than in other countries in Europe.


In any case, aren't we all gender neutral these days so what does it matter:p

Broader social and political attitudes on the social constructions of sex and gender don't see things that way - the biological reality that sexuality, sex and gender are spectral or on a continuum rather than being binary - and are usually found to be playing catch-up on biology and science: http://www.nature.com/news/sex-redefined-1.16943

It's easy to be frivolous or facetious for those of us who have had no experience of marginalisation or ostracisation on the basis of perceived sex or gender, but those social constructions still have very profound, restrictive and oppressive moral, social, legal, economic, political and cultural consequences for millions of people around the globe.

See, for example:

-http://genderbinary.wikidot.com/gender-binary-outside-mold
-http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/exchange/rae/dismantling-gender-binary-system


I would say the number of Protestants voting for SF would be minuscule

On the general topic of Protestant republicans, here is a very loosely-related recent piece I came across in the Irish Times on modern-day Protestant nationalists in Ireland and the search for their radical history: http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/rebel-protestants-unearthing-the-story-of-radical-nationalists-1.2987749

It may interest.

[BonnieShels]

Cheers for that link to that article Danny. That book goes on the wishlist now.