UK Election

[Macy]

What a dramatic day - Brown stepping down, the Libs talking to both parties at once, and now the Tories are panicking and offering a referendum on the Alternate Vote PR system. Who knows, maybe if Clegg holds out another 24 hours, he might squeeze STV out of Labour. I'd say it'll take til Thursday until a deal is done either way.
Not sure whether AV would be enough for the Liberals, assuming that Labour offer AV+. Although I was reading that there may be complications with AV+ in that it would require the boundary commission to redraw consituencies and whether there would be enough time given the liklehood of a relatively early general election.

On a lighter note, and I can't get it from work, but if you can access youtube check out Adam Boulton totally losing the plot with Alastair Campbell live on Sky News yesterday. Brilliant telly. :) Edit - two links of the "Raging Boul" here (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/may/10/adam-boulton-alastair-campbell)

[Dodge]

Yeah, Boulter was hilarious. There's a clip of kay Burleigh losing it on Sky news too. They've never really hid their allegiance but I can't remember it being so brazen...


Also think the right wing media's portrayal of labour's bid for power hilarious. "hey! they're a political party and they won't let the parties they think would ruin the country into power!"

[pineapple stu]

the Tories are panicking and offering a referendum on the Alternate Vote PR system.
Presumably 60% of the people will vote for reform, so it'll be defeated?

[dahamsta]

I watched Boulton flipping outside Westminister live, it was brilliant; reminded me of John Sweeney going mental on the Scientologist. Bittersweet moment though, hate seeing that slimebag Campbell "win".

[culloty82]

So Cameron has taken over as UK PM, strangely the Lib Dems still haven't officially signed off on the deal yet, but that looks like a formality at this stage. I'd say they'll end up like our Greens, as they leak support, members and seats to Labour.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Not sure what the LD's will get out of this, except being the straight guy to Cam, a Moron's antics, as he strives to help all his fellow Old Etonians down to their last million....

Maybe the LD's can curb their worst excesses but don't reckon this'll last more than 2-3 years as eventually the relative grassroots will fall out over spending cuts and Europe where their views diverge.
The trouble is for Clegg & co, they almost had to look for some sort of coalition to try to force through an element of PR, besides the right-wing media would have branded them (& will do when the pact falls) 'irresponsible' for not backing their 'nice' Tory mates in some sort of 'Unity' government.
The best the Brit.electorate can hope for is that the Tories inevitably will force through some crass legislation, for which they'll be rightly hated, but the LD's can appear 'heroic' by not supporting them.

Labour should take time to reflect, find hopefully a non-Blair-like leader and take stock about PR, as they should be more mature about trying to support such in the longer-term and leave the Tories looking like the dinosaurs we all know they are.....along with their 'friends' in the North!

[dahamsta]

It's FF+PD/FF+Green all over again. The tail wagging the dog, badly; or just thinking they are.

Labour'll be in the wilderness for a while now, there's no-one worthy of party leader there, never mind PM. It'll be rather amusing to watch them casting blindly about for a decent leader in almost exactly the same way the Tories have done for the past decade.

[peadar1987]

It's FF+PD/FF+Green all over again. The tail wagging the dog, badly; or just thinking they are.

Labour'll be in the wilderness for a while now, there's no-one worthy of party leader there, never mind PM. It'll be rather amusing to watch them casting blindly about for a decent leader in almost exactly the same way the Tories have done for the past decade.

Or it would be if the Tories weren't tearing the country to shreds in the meantime. The whole "big society" thing is a load of balls, look at Hammersmith for Cameron's vision of his conservative Utopia.

[OneRedArmy]

It certainly could turn into FF/Green/PDs all over again, but there are a few important differences that could make it different:

1) The LibDems aren't propping up a failed incumbent (as the Greens are doing) and as the Tories haven't been in power for well over a decade, both parties can't collectively be blamed for the fiscal austerity that is required

2) With people like Vince Cable and a few other grey hairs in the background, I would hope the LibDems won't be as politically naive as the Greens have proved to be. This is the biggest risk for me, boxsets of Yes Minister should be required watching for all Libdem MPs.

3) Regardless of anything else, if the LibDems secure a material move in the direction of PR, short of the whole country fiscally imploding, then they will view the coalition as a long-term win. This has been their most consistent policy for almost 4 decades and any move away from first past the post would be hugely significant.

[Dodge]

I'd imagine the first big battleground between the Conservative Home side of the Tories and the LibDems will be Europe. It could be the best thing ever to happen to labour though as it gives them space to place themselves back on the left

[dahamsta]

Fair points both.

[Macy]

I think for their long term vision of PR, it is important that the Lib Dems can show coalition can work. But short term, they could get walloped PD style. They've already left one of their fundamentals at the door, as AV is a long way from PR, so it depends whether they've left all their principles at the door as the Greens have done here.

As for Labour, Milliband was out talking about Labour being center (before saying center left) - doesn't exactly inspire me that it isn't going to be anything but New New Labour.

[dahamsta]

Is the referendum going to be on AV or AV+?

[OneRedArmy]

The details aren't public yet AFAIK. But lets be realistic, the LibDems will gain hugely in any move away from FPTP. If a move to PR has to be taken in small steps then I don't see this necessarily as a climbdown. Going back into opposition in a FPTP system with both large parties actively opposed to any move towards PR would have been a monumental missed opportunity and who knows when the opportunity would come up again.

The Libdems need to bemindful of public perception in the UK which as has been shown over the last week, equates coalitions (and by extension anything that makes them more likely) as weak government. The fear of a coalition government was palpable in the press and in public opinion, as evidenced by howls of complaint when it was found out that the LibDems were talking to both sides at once. It makes sense to fight the battles you can win, and if AV or AV+ is whats viewed people will stomach, then the LibDems would be mad not to go for it.

By all means don't sell your principles down the river, but there's a whole heap of difference between doing that and settling for less than 100%, which is simply realpolitik in any society IMO.

[culloty82]

Labour could afford to move back to the left to pick up disillusioned floating voters, but like Macy says, they'll probably go for a Blair clone like Miliband, so it'll just be more of the same. The Conservatives seem to be using the coalition to pretend they've changed, shoving most of the Lib Dems into minor jobs they weren't particularly interested in anyway, like Scotland and the environment, but if the government is working well, they might well decide not to give Cameron a majority next time either. The lib Dems probably needed the referendum to be on AV+, as the AV that they're getting would leave them with 80 MPs, and even that's if people don't switch to Labour, so Cable needs to impress in business. The House of Lords will be elected by STV and Westminster will have a fixed five-year term, but that's overrridden if the government loses a vote of confidence, so should be interesting times ahead.

[Macy]

The agreement is for a referendum on AV as far as I understand it, not AV+. The Tories will oppose it, presumably from a weak position if the coalition is working.

A vote of confidence won't trigger an election - they're proposing to introduce a vote on dissolution, which would require 55% support. I'm a bit undecided on fixed terms to be honest. Obviously in our situation, not having one isn't helping us get a deeply unpopular party out, and I would fear that it'll just lead to short term thinking from Governments. Pretty much like the McCreevy years here - give away before an election, take it back afterwards, give away before an election etc etc. From our perspective the biggest thing would be to force the holding of bye elections.

[dahamsta]

Any progress away from FPTP is a good thing. I'd guess many in Labour will support it alongside the LibDems, but they could have a tough job selling it to their constituents. Brits are notoriously averse to change, electorally speaking.

[culloty82]

The race to be Labour leader is heating up - the Miliband brothers have been joined by Diane Abbott, Andy Burnham (who was last heard of being booed during the Hillsborough anniversary), John McDonnell and Ed Balls (I'd imagine the Sun have multiple headlines done up already). McDonnell got into trouble for praising the Provos and Bobby Sands a few years back, so he seems to be the wildcard in the bunch.

[Dodge]

McDonnell is certainly the most left of those. he actually increased his majority this year too (One of about 3 labour MPs I believe)