UK Election

[awec]

I'll be sticking my vote down for whoever stands for the UUP/Tories. Purely through a process of elimination, the rest of the candidates do not appeal to me at all.

[culloty82]

UTV putting their NI leaders debate head-to-head against the Sky News one- whether that's brave or just plain daft is another question.

[awec]

UTV putting their NI leaders debate head-to-head against the Sky News one- whether that's brave or just plain daft is another question.

I imagine most people will watch the NI one cause people in NI cannot vote for the mainland parties (except in the UUP/Tories case but that's different).

[Gather round]

UTV putting their NI leaders debate head-to-head against the Sky News one- whether that's brave or just plain daft is another question

There's a limited audience for political discussion programs, even in Northern Ireland. UTV's timing risks losing that proportion of it which looks wider than the single-issue headcount applying here.

Some NI parties have formal or looser links with larger national parties (Alliance-LibDem and TUV-UKIP, as well as the UUP/ Conservatives).

[culloty82]

http://twitpic.com/1he6lp

But in many ways, it's Brown who really needs a clear win in today's debate. Cameron and Clegg just need to break even to maintain their support while Labour have been third all week. A weak performance could see voters defect to the other two parties, throwing tomorrow's polls into chaos.

[culloty82]

The second debate appears to have made no impact- the Tories have made progress but would still have fewer seats than Labour, the Lib Dems have consolidated the previous week's gains, while Labour are still on course to be largest despite making little headway. The polls are reflecting this, varying little over recent days as voters are actively chosing a hung parliament.

[ArdeeBhoy]

There's a limited audience for political discussion programs, even in Northern Ireland. UTV's timing risks losing that proportion of it which looks wider than the single-issue headcount applying here.

Some NI parties have formal or looser links with larger national parties (Alliance-LibDem and TUV-UKIP, as well as the UUP/ Conservatives).

You mean 'programmes'....
Lol.
And my Nordy-based contacts tell me it's the LD's & the SDLP. The Alliance Party have no relevance in British (or even probably in a notional UI one) elections, given their support is so tiny.

[Gather round]

And my Nordy-based contacts tell me it's the LD's & the SDLP

Your Nordy "contacts" are wrong. The Alliance Party are linked with the Liberal Democrats and are members of Liberal International and the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party. Whereas the SDLP is affiliated to the Socialist International and a member of the Party of European Socialists (which is largely misleading since they're recognised by everyone in NI as a nationalist party whose basic aim is to abolish the border , but hey. That doesn't make them LibDems).


The Alliance Party have no relevance in British (or even probably in a notional UI one) elections, given their support is so tiny

There is currently an Alliance mayor of Belfast. Their support, though small can be influential as a balance between larger blocs.


The Lib Dems are polling well because Clegg has moved the party towards the center, period. In a bad way. Funny that, it sounds familiar...

Not sure what you mean by this. They've always been in the center in the sense of being the balance between two larger blocs, and also in coming second to either Labour or Tory in large parts of Britain. Where, depending on their main opponent, they can variously pretend to be either anti-one or the other.

[ArdeeBhoy]

The Alliance Party are linked with the Liberal Democrats and are members of Liberal International and the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party. Whereas the SDLP is affiliated to the Socialist International and a member of the Party of European Socialists (which is largely misleading since they're recognised by everyone in NI as a nationalist party whose basic aim is to abolish the border , but hey. That doesn't make them LibDems).

They might be affiliated, but the policies of the LD's are closer to those of the SDLP (despite the typical paranoid illusions!).
And the Alliance Party, beyond an occasional ceremonial role, are a largely irrelevant nonentity in the context of Westminster, for reasons which should be obvious, even to you FFS.

And it's "centre".....

[culloty82]

The horsetrading has begun in earnest already - Cameron has sent out feelers to the Lib Dems by saying he was open to PR, before changing his mind 24 hrs later, while Clegg said on the Beeb that he wouldn't vote for Brown if Labour finished third. This is just tactics as many marginals are between the Tories and Lib Dems, so denying the vote Clegg get Brown argument is all about attracting floating voters.

[OneRedArmy]

Cameron more and more strikes me as an even more dangerous successor to Tony Blair. He stands for nothing, drifts in whatever direction the wind is blowing on a given day and would say anything to get elected.

It makes me nostalgic for the days of Maggie and Tebbit, at least you knew exactly why you hated them as they stood for something!!

[Mr A]

Agreed, I think the Tories are probably scarier than they've ever been- it's just that Cameron hides it very well.

[Gather round]

the policies of the LD's are closer to those of the SDLP (despite the typical paranoid illusions!)

Would you like to name one?


And the Alliance Party, beyond an occasional ceremonial role, are a largely irrelevant nonentity in the context of Westminster, for reasons which should be obvious, even to you FFS

All the Northern Ireland parties except the DUP (or previously the UUP) are irrelevant in Westminster votes, since they have a handful or less of MPs. If Cameron or whoever is leading Labour in a fortnight's time need two votes for a majority, they're unlikely to approach the SDLP first.

[ArdeeBhoy]

They seem to have a similar attitude towards education, especially those in HE and student fees.
More importantly, they are both of a similar relative strength in their respective electorates and unlike the AP, even the SDLP could have a very small influence in a 'balanced' British Parliament, regardless of their long-term aspirations.....

[dantheman]

Would you like to name one?

All the Northern Ireland parties except the DUP (or previously the UUP) are irrelevant in Westminster votes, since they have a handful or less of MPs.


Just like NI is irrelevant to people in Great Britain. The proper business is done at Stormont.
I agree that Labour and the SDLP are linked though, not the Lib Dems.

There's a great letter here (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/letters/its-all-about-electioneering-and-the-border-stupid-14778813.html)which sums up the nature of politics up north

[Closed Account 2]

All three leaders are some of the worst in recent history. Clegg is worse than Kennedy or Ashdown, Brown is worse than Blair (or at the very least the same) and John Smith, Cameron (the defintion of slime) is worse than Hague or Major...

[culloty82]

Have any of the Northern dailies or local papers done any polling yet?

[ArdeeBhoy]

I agree that Labour and the SDLP are linked though, not the Lib Dems.

There's a great letter here (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/letters/its-all-about-electioneering-and-the-border-stupid-14778813.html)which sums up the nature of politics up north

Fair enough Dan, though New Labour are so embarassingly right-wing in certain respects, they must almost be closer to the unionists in some respects, let alone the SDLP....

And that letter is spot on;Ultimately beyond using the UUP to bolster any majority, Cameron doesn't give two f*cks, rightly about the North as even he's already highlighted it as a major drain on the Brits economy!
Trouble is a UI is not that economically viable just now, not to mention all the other, er, 'baggage' involved.

Still it's all about the longer game;Even 'I.K.P.' referred to it as "The North of Ireland" in his retirement address, the other day.
Needless to say, the usual whataboutery merchants were nowhere to be seen...

[OneRedArmy]

Have any of the Northern dailies or local papers done any polling yet?Is there any point? Unless something changes there'll be about two marginals.

In a normal democratic system, polling is a reasonable barometer of how voters react to policy statements and debates. In the knuckledragging-tribal-Groundhog Day that is Norn Ireland politics, its simply a depressing reminder of how some things haven't changed.

[Gather round]

Is there any point? Unless something changes there'll be about two marginals

It depends whether you mean '1-2% between the two leading candidates', in which case given the basic zero likelihood of anyone swinging from green to orange or vice versa there aren't really any, or alternatively are thinking of one side's main candidate winning with tactical votes from its other party (as in Belfast South in 2005), where there could be quite a few. Particularly if all three main unionist parties poll strongly.


There's a great letter here (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/letters/its-all-about-electioneering-and-the-border-stupid-14778813.html)which sums up the nature of politics up north

Predictable cliched moaning. The Conservatives are putting more effort into Northern Ireland because it's potentially 11-12 more votes for them overall. For them at least, it isn't about the border at all ( or 'honest brokerage in the peace procession' as Brian Maguire and Dan would presumably prefer), but the slightly more important issue of who runs Britain. Of which Northern Ireland is a trifling 3% of the population in a backwater, really.

[OneRedArmy]

Predictable cliched moaning. The Conservatives are putting more effort into Northern Ireland because it's potentially 11-12 more votes for them overall. For them at least, it isn't about the border at all ( or 'honest brokerage in the peace procession' as Brian Maguire and Dan would presumably prefer), but the slightly more important issue of who runs Britain.By engaging in tactical arrangements and pacts with other parties they have effectively made it "about the border" whether they want or acknowledge this or not.

Make no mistake, the Fermanagh South Tyrone decision is an awful opening salvo by the Tories in Norn Ireland politics and shows Cameron up for the slippy, spineless lightweight that he is.

[ArdeeBhoy]

The Conservatives are putting more effort into Northern Ireland because it's potentially 11-12 more votes for them overall. For them at least, it isn't about the border at all ( or 'honest brokerage in the peace procession' as Brian Maguire and Dan would presumably prefer), but the slightly more important issue of who runs Britain. Of which Northern Ireland is a trifling 3% of the population in a backwater, really.

More like cynical and desperate by the Conservatives, in a hopefully futile attempt to get power, nothing to do with the border.....Though those outdated cretins will be lucky to win 1-2 seats, even with their natural constituency in the North. Even the DUP may be more credible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even the AP would be.
And what ORA said re.Cameron.

[Gather round]

By engaging in tactical arrangements and pacts with other parties they have effectively made it "about the border" whether they want or acknowledge this or not

I expect they're fairly relaxed that you and others think it's about the border. For them it's about getting another nine or 10 seats, which might be crucial in the shake-up at Westminster. If they didn't stand at all, or didn't acknowledge the reality that almost all unionist politicians are at least small 'c' conservatives if not actually autonomous local representatives of the party, then presumably that would be about the border too?


Make no mistake, the Fermanagh South Tyrone decision is an awful opening salvo by the Tories in Norn Ireland politics and shows Cameron up for the slippy, spineless lightweight that he is.

Many of us over here knew how slippy he was as soon as he became Tory leader. I'd have preferred he stood 18 NI candidates in principle (I vote Green over here, but I've always argued that all the big British parties should stand in every part of the country).


More like cynical and desperate by the Conservatives, in a hopefully futile attempt to get power, nothing to do with the border.....Though those outdated cretins will be lucky to win 1-2 sets, even with their natural constituency in the North. Even the DUP may be more credible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even the AP would be.
And what ORA said re.Cameron

In the short-term, I expect the Tory/UUP/ FST deal to win at least those one or two (maybe also Antrim South and Strangford). In the mid-term (ie next election?) they could win many more. The DUP got local power partly by promising to be more hardline, and on the back of a personality cult for Paisley. The one's been outflanked by the TUV, the other will obviously fade. Financial and other scandals won't help them either.

You're right that the only border DC is really interested in is the one on the swingometer.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Except that they won't win 9-10 seats and the north of Ireland is not like the rest of Britain, so why should the latter's main parties waste time on an electorate most of them or their voters don't especially want!

[Gather round]

Except that they won't win 9-10 seats and the north of Ireland is not like the rest of Britain, so why should the latter's main parties waste time on an electorate most of them or their voters don't especially want!

Apart from the Tory/UUP seats, Cameron will almost certainly be able to call on those won by the DUP and TUV. Of the likely 10-11 Unionist and Tory MPs, only one (Sylvia Hermon) has admitted a preference for new Labour.

Cameron isn't wasting much time on it, he doesn't really need to.

Labour and the LibDems (and UKIP, and Green) should stand across Northern Ireland. In the case of the bigger two, it offers everyone the chance to vote for or against the likely government; even for the smaller parties, it would strengthen their claim to be nationally representative. For national parties, the extra costs for deposits etc. are small beer.

[TheBoss]

Lol


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbhPWAMx2y0

[Schumi]

Lol

http://static.ow.ly/photos/original/1g5M.jpg

[Mr A]

Ha! And to think somebody said Cameron didn't waste time thinking about NI politicians.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Labour and the LibDems (and UKIP, and Green) should stand across Northern Ireland. In the case of the bigger two, it offers everyone the chance to vote for or against the likely government; even for the smaller parties, it would strengthen their claim to be nationally representative. For national parties, the extra costs for deposits etc. are small beer.

Except they and their voters aren't interested. It's only the dinosaurs and theirs that are.
Though the unionist (& Tory) voters and their aspiring leaders are well summarised by Schumi's photo....though c*nts might be more apt!

[culloty82]

The media seem to have gone haywire about "bigotgate" - can't see it changing things in the long term, but Labour might be down 2% for a few days.

[endabob1]

Newscorp will run and run with that story, they will get as much mileage out of it as they possibly can

[Lionel Ritchie]

Indeed they will endabob. Lib Dem lass on politics show last night was saying one thing you won't hear GB say in debate tonight is "I spoke to a lady in Rochdale yesterday....". I think he should. Dunno who's sheduled to speak first but he should bring it up at the first opportunity afforded him rather than spend time trying to deflect hits on it from the tories and lib dems.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Inclined to agree, but the Labour? locals in Rochdale seemed equally sure he shouldn't....

[culloty82]

Seemingly Nick Griffin was on RTE the other day, saying that Ireland was part of Britain and that we're more than welcome in his Aryan nation (the old Groucho Marx joke about clubs springs to mind)! Otherwise, looks like Dave Nice-But-Dim is still rising in the polls, so we could be talking about a Tory majority this time next week.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Sounds like imperialistic BS from Nazi Nick there....

[MariborKev]

Naw he did say it.

As someone said to me "Aye, when the Irish people hear that they'll be raging. But only after they finish reading the Guardian, watching Eastenders and cheering on Liverpool."

[ArdeeBhoy]

Know the pr*ck said it, but somehow think the average unionist would disagree with you....

[Gather round]

As someone said to me "Aye, when the Irish people hear that they'll be raging. But only after they finish reading the Guardian, watching Eastenders and cheering on Liverpool"

Heh, touche. Although I wouldn't bracket the Graun with those others- I think it only sells about 15,000 copies daily in Ireland.


Know the pr*ck said it, but somehow think the average unionist would disagree with you....

I think I can say confidently that the average/ typical unionist neither

a) supports the BNP, nor

b) thinks the Republic of Ireland is or should become part of the British state.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Ha ha.

But the average unionist would & does agree with their stance on the Six Counties with those same bigots in the BNP, Tories et al....


PS. There is no country called the 'Republic of Ireland', nor will there ever be. Maybe purchase of an atlas is in order?
;)

[dahamsta]

ArdeeBhoy, that kind of pedantry is why discussion of the SPL is restricted to one thread on Foot.ie, and why threads on Ireland/Northern Ireland invariably sink into flame wars. Drop it. Now.

[culloty82]

Nate Silver, who was 98% accurate with his prediction for the electoral college in the US presidential election, has now tweaked his model to analyse the UK vote. Don't know enough maths or programming to know how reliable it is, but he says that the use of proportional, rather than uniform swing should make his projection more accurate than traditional swingometers.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/how-our-uk-forecast-model-works.html

[ArdeeBhoy]

that kind of pedantry is why discussion of the SPL is restricted to one thread on Foot.ie, and why threads on Ireland/Northern Ireland invariably sink into flame wars.

Apologies DH, had no idea confirming the name of a member state of the EU & UN was so, er, inflammatory.

And props to Culloty, Nate Silver is a respected pundit.

[boovidge]

I'll be voting Conservative I think. The state has grown to gigantic proportions under Labour and I want more power devolved to lower levels of government or to the individual. Apparently this makes me a "bigot" who might as well join the BNP though?

[ArdeeBhoy]

That's your choice. But be mindful there's still rabid anti-foreigner(inc.Irish (& of course non-whites) people !) forces at work in there. Just read some of the Tory blogs online. Or the other usual suspects.
Sounds like LD's are more apt, unless taking a very Libertarian stance?

Still if anyone wants to vote for Old Etonians who are detached from reality and voting for austerity measures which won't affect them, fine by me.
Enjoy their 'New Reality'.

[Dodge]

I'll be voting Conservative I think. The state has grown to gigantic proportions under Labour and I want more power devolved to lower levels of government or to the individual

Won't the COnservatives try to take power away from the Scottish parliament and Welsh regional assembly?

[boovidge]

The Conservative party are a broad church - I'm sure there is still an element of small minded xenophobia within the parties ranks, although I believe that very much exists in Labour's grassroots as well. I am coming from a more libertarian perspective, the LDs are far too EUrophile for my liking and I think it's naive of them to claim they can change the institution from within.

I don't base my vote on what school the leader went to - Clegg comes from a similar background, as did Tony Blair. As far as austerity goes, all parties will have to make cuts because Britain has a huge defecit.

[dahamsta]

If I was living in the UK, I think I'd have to vote for Labour. I'd be unlikely to vote for the Tories anyway, but as someone has already pointed out earlier in the thread, the Tories under Cameron would be far worse than the likes of Thatcher, because at least you knew what you were getting under Thatcher. And the New Liberals under Clegg are so reminiscent of New Labour under Blair it's scary. Gordon Brown is a rock of reliability and intelligence compared to these guys. Of course if they had PR-STV people wouldn't have to base their decisions around one person...

[boovidge]

Won't the COnservatives try to take power away from the Scottish parliament and Welsh regional assembly?

Not that I'm aware Dodge although the coverage of Welsh and Scottish politics in England is very small to the point where only political anoraks know anything about them. I was under the impression that they supported giving more powers to the Scottish parliament. Certainly if you took more away from the Welsh assembly it'd be pointless even having it. The parties all have have different manifestos: a "British" one for England and seperate ones for Scotland and Wales. I know the Tories are still very unionist. I personally think the Union (between Scotland and England) is dead. I'd rather see two independent nations and stop this whole "British" charade.

[ArdeeBhoy]

The Conservative party are a broad church - I'm sure there is still an element of small minded xenophobia within the parties ranks

As far as austerity goes, all parties will have to make cuts because Britain has a huge defecit.

If you believe that, you may need to broaden your horizons ! 80-90% of them, beneath the surface, fufill the worst type of 'little Englander' stereotype of intolerance, for which one would be ridiculed if you were to apply it to even the smallest degree in an Irish context.
Their cuts are aimed at slashing public services regardless, especially affecting Education & the Health Service.
And the Tories economic record, using anyone other than Ken Clarke, is as about as useful as a chocolate teapot......

DH is right in a way in that Brown is the intellectually most competent, though Clegg has more appeal in terms of charisma. But PR & the ending of Trident were never policies advocated by Blair in a General Election scenario.

[boovidge]

The Tories have ringfenced NHS spending in England so it's clearly not a case of ruthlesly slashing public services for the sake of it. Even in Thatcher's time public spending rose under the Conservatives. You're obviously coming from a left wing perspective so we're not going to agree about public spending because, economically at least, I'm on the right.

Is your pecentage on the number of bigoted Tories scientific or just based on cliche and prejudice? :tongue: Whatever anybody says it's quite clear that the party has modernised in that regard, they have numerous gay and ethnic minority members. There are numerous things about the Party that I don't like and numerous policies I don't support but I don't accept the argument that theyre all just a bunch of closet racists.

As far as Labour is concerned, five more years of them is almost unthinkable. Detention without charge, I.D cards, DNA databases, bureaucracy, regulation and tax. No thanks.