How depressing is the seeding news?

[thischarmingman]

I'd hope for that like.

Although if it did happen, in the 89th minute FIFA would introduce a rule saying that away goals don't count in playoffs...

See: Final, League Cup (2002)

[gspain]

See: Final, League Cup (2002)

Away goals never counted in the 2002 League Cup final. some of your fans thought they did and indeed at one stage our players.

[Greenbod]

I'd hope for that like.

Although if it did happen, in the 89th minute FIFA would introduce a rule saying that away goals don't count in playoffs...

Why hope for a draw? Is a win too much to hope for?

[Junior]

, Italy havent been overwhelming and there would have been nothing any of the supposed fixers could have done about us winning. BUT we didnt so now we might have to beat a more polished soccer nation to get in.

A play off spot is no more guaranteed than not topping the group. We CAN still win it if results go our way and that is what we should be aiming for.

[swinfordfc]

At the moment - we are unoffically 29th placed in the rankings and not 38th placed ........ thats still leaves us the wrong side of the cut but a win against italy would seriously help us ....

[Crosby87]

A play off spot is no more guaranteed than not topping the group. We CAN still win it if results go our way and that is what we should be aiming for.

Come on Italy havent lost yet and they are going to drop two in a row, including to Cyprus? Italy is going to lose to the Cypridiots in a game of that magnitude?
And even if they did you just know we would draw the Monty game anyway.

[Junior]

Come on Italy havent lost yet and they are going to drop two in a row, including to Cyprus? Italy is going to lose to the Cypridiots in a game of that magnitude?
And even if they did you just know we would draw the Monty game anyway.

By that token we could easily end up with 1 point from our 2 games and watch Bulgaria sail above us in to second.

[Noelys Guitar]

http://www.worldcup365.com/Images/SeppKingBlatterITV.jpg

"Only one elderly owner. Great mileage. Never in a crash.......would you buy a second hand car from this fella?

[Drumcondra 69er]

http://www.worldcup365.com/Images/SeppKingBlatterITV.jpg

Who would buy a second hand car from this chap?

He has a face you just want to punch doesn't he. I despise that man.

[ChrisRed]

At the moment - we are unoffically 29th placed in the rankings and not 38th placed ........ thats still leaves us the wrong side of the cut but a win against italy would seriously help us ....

The seedings are based on the fifa rankings as at the 16th October.
Unsure if that will take into consideration our results against Italy and Montenegro. Although the likes of Greece, Portugal, Germany, France, Croatia are all in the top 17 at present so not sure if it'll make any difference.

[gustavo]

I think if they just seeded the lowest ranking teams it would solve the problem

[LFCSixty/Eighty]

The seedings are based on the fifa rankings as at the 16th October.
Unsure if that will take into consideration our results against Italy and Montenegro. Although the likes of Greece, Portugal, Germany, France, Croatia are all in the top 17 at present so not sure if it'll make any difference.

I think its a disgrace that this is happening but we are obviously a small voice. As usual, the big boys rule but surely if they are going to do it this way, they should update their seedings to include the whole qualification tournament, including the final 2 games, this would be fairer. Not that fairness ever came into anything Sepp Blatter was ever involved in :mad:

[SuperDave]

I think its a disgrace that this is happening but we are obviously a small voice. As usual, the big boys rule but surely if they are going to do it this way, they should update their seedings to include the whole qualification tournament, including the final 2 games, this would be fairer. Not that fairness ever came into anything Sepp Blatter was ever involved in :mad:

you mean have the top four teams in the 2nd place teams playing the fifth to eighth teams.... we'd still be in the bottom half...

[LFCSixty/Eighty]

you mean have the top four teams in the 2nd place teams playing the fifth to eighth teams.... we'd still be in the bottom half...

I hadnt worked out all the permutations but all I was suggesting that it would have to be fairer to base the seedings on the most updated version of the the standings not 2 games ago. I wasn't actually making a case for or against Ireland.

[Den Perry]

What a ridiculous post. You think it'd be better if away fans coming here were attacked?

read my post!!where did I say attack them? all I stated was that Irish fans were often treated badly abroad and whenever the opposition returned here there was absolutely no intimidation. Now I don't know about you, but I'd be making it bloody intimidating for them.Now, get back on your high horse

[craig7042]

I think its a disgrace that this is happening but we are obviously a small voice. As usual, the big boys rule but surely if they are going to do it this way, they should update their seedings to include the whole qualification tournament, including the final 2 games, this would be fairer. Not that fairness ever came into anything Sepp Blatter was ever involved in :mad:

It's a shocker alright, and it could be critical. One thing though - why do RTE keep saying that if we win both games we'll win the group, when clearly Italy need to drop points in their final game also...

[Schumi]

read my post!!where did I say attack them?

You said that it's sad that supporters of a country where Irish fans were attacked would get a warm welcome. It doesn't take much reading between the lines but if I misinterpreted what you meant, I'm sorry.

The atmosphere should be intimidating for all visiting teams but being friendly to fans outside of the game is nothing to be ashamed about. Anyone I met in Montenegro was very friendly but they created a pretty intimidating atmosphere in the ground, without there being any threat of violence.

[Scooby Doo]

Okay can somebody please clarify/correct my understanding of these possible scenarios/outcomes. The seeding is definately based on the FIFA world rankings?

If this is so, then as far as I can see, we would be a seeded team if Lativa were to beat Greece away and molvova at home. Similarly, if Sweden got second spot by beating Denmark away and albania home, we'd be seeded along with (probably) France, Russia-Germany and Croatia-Ukraine. Unseeded would probably be Bosnia, Latvia, Sweden and Slovenia.

[SuperDave]

Okay can somebody please clarify/correct my understanding of these possible scenarios/outcomes. The seeding is definately based on the FIFA world rankings?

If this is so, then as far as I can see, we would be a seeded team if Lativa were to beat Greece away and molvova at home. Similarly, if Sweden got second spot by beating Denmark away and albania home, we'd be seeded along with (probably) France, Russia-Germany and Croatia-Ukraine. Unseeded would probably be Bosnia, Latvia, Sweden and Slovenia.

This is correct. However, rankings are released three days before the draw and if sweden won their games and we didn't, we'd probably drop below them in the rankings and they would be seeded and we wouldn't. I think I'm right in saying we are 39 and they are 41 currently.

[Gather round]

Unseeded would probably be Bosnia, Latvia, Sweden and Slovenia

I'd agree Slovenia are slight favorite to finish second in group 3, but if they lose in Slovakia while Czechia beat Poland in the penultimate round, the Czechs would sneak second by also beating NI in the last round. Regardless of Slovenia's expected win in San Marino, and likely leaving the Czechs as a play-off seed.

Current

1 sk 8-19
2 si 8-14
3 ni 9-14
4 cs 8-12
5 pl 8-11
6 sm 9-0

[Crosby87]

By that token we could easily end up with 1 point from our 2 games and watch Bulgaria sail above us in to second.

I can agree with you that Bulgaria may win their last two matches but can you at least be reasonable and admit that if Italy lost to us they would probably NOT lose to Cyprus? I realize technically there is a chance it could happen just as there is a chance I could win mega millions. But it is human nature as a fan to think of the logical other avenues at this point instead of all of us just debating what Cyprus needs to do to beat Italy.
Its just annoying when you say we should be concentrating on the best possible out come, Italy is not dropping the last two matches!!!!

[Junior]

Ok. I agree of course its a long shot but its not past tense and we havent or cant win the group - we can.

If we beat Italy on the 10th I really dont think Italy will coast to an easy victory against Cyprus, If they win (which is the more likely outcome I agree) then I think it will be a very tense and very close affair - so who knows - it is all to play for.

[fionnsci]

This rule should have to be ratified by all UEFA teams. I for one demand a referendum!

[shakermaker1982]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2009/oct/03/dara-o-briain-column

Dara O'Brien's take on the matter in yesterday's Guardian.

[Dun Laoire]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2009/oct/03/dara-o-briain-column

Dara O'Brien's take on the matter in yesterday's Guardian.

well a draw for Cyrpus would be enough Dara ;)

[Qwerty]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2009/oct/03/dara-o-briain-column

Dara O'Brien's take on the matter in yesterday's Guardian.

I wonder how much he gets paid for that tripe. His writing stlye is exactly the same as his verbal style so presumably he just phones it in. Horrible drivel and unworthy of the Guardian.

[shakermaker1982]

I wonder how much he gets paid for that tripe. His writing stlye is exactly the same as his verbal style so presumably he just phones it in. Horrible drivel and unworthy of the Guardian.

He has taken over from Russell Brand (jokey Saturday column). Nice little earner I bet. I'm surprised a blog about Ireland has received so many comments!

[Arnold Layne]

It's a sickener alright. Should have made it clear at the start what way the draw was going to be. Typical FIFA. :mad:

[Leeside Swagger]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2009/oct/03/dara-o-briain-column

Dara O'Brien's take on the matter in yesterday's Guardian.


Cheers Dara for stating the blindingly obvious and you still managed to balls it up.

[foureyes]

Okay can somebody please clarify/correct my understanding of these possible scenarios/outcomes. The seeding is definately based on the FIFA world rankings?

If this is so, then as far as I can see, we would be a seeded team if Lativa were to beat Greece away and molvova at home. Similarly, if Sweden got second spot by beating Denmark away and albania home, we'd be seeded along with (probably) France, Russia-Germany and Croatia-Ukraine. Unseeded would probably be Bosnia, Latvia, Sweden and Slovenia.

this isn't fully clear. regardless of what sweden do, we need latvia to win in greece to propel us into the top 4 seeds right?

in fact, if latvia do win in greece we probably want sweden to only draw in denmark (and still finish second) as were they to win the ranking points they get would probably put them as 4th seed.

the current standings again:

Russia/Germany (6/4)
Croatia (9)
France (10)
Greece/Latvia (12/58)

Ireland (38 )
Sweden (41)
Bosnia (46)
Slovenia (54)

[SuperDave]

this isn't fully clear. regardless of what sweden do, we need latvia to win in greece to propel us into the top 4 seeds right?

in fact, if latvia do win in greece we probably want sweden to only draw in denmark (and still finish second) as were they to win the ranking points they get would probably put them as 4th seed.

seems to be the case..... the whole situation will be clearer after this weekend....

also, it's not the losing that kills me, it's the hope....

[foureyes]

seems to be the case..... the whole situation will be clearer after this weekend....

also, it's not the losing that kills me, it's the hope....

yeah there's no way greece will lose at home to latvia anyway, i reckon. a draw is conceivable, at which point things get very tricky.

i think it means that it would be a straight shootout between greece and latvia on the final wednesday to see who can score more goals - latvia at home to moldova, or greece home to luxembourg, with the greeks having a goal start.

[SuperDave]

yeah there's no way greece will lose at home to latvia anyway, i reckon. a draw is conceivable, at which point things get very tricky.

i think it means that it would be a straight shootout between greece and latvia on the final wednesday to see who can score more goals - latvia at home to moldova, or greece home to luxembourg, with the greeks having a goal start.

well, except for the fact that if there is a draw, israel join the party too, presumably after hammering moldova, with a substantial advantage (currently 2 up on the greeks)..... though they would need to beat switzerland away to qualify.

[foureyes]

well, except for the fact that if there is a draw, israel join the party too, presumably after hammering moldova, with a substantial advantage (currently 2 up on the greeks)..... though they would need to beat switzerland away to qualify.

yeah i considered that :) would've mentioned it but for the switzerland away game - though at that point switzerland will have qualified so who knows.

ukraine could overhaul croatia to finish second if they beat england. a big ask and it won't make a difference to the seedings but i think i'd just about prefer to face them over croatia. similarly there's a (very) small chance france could finish ahead of serbia, who are strong, but i would still rather face them then the french.

on the flip side, if latvia win/draw in greece and portugal finish second we'd both our 4th seed spot and the chance to face greece...

[SuperDave]

yeah i considered that :) would've mentioned it but for the switzerland away game - though at that point switzerland will have qualified so who knows.

ukraine could overhaul croatia to finish second if they beat england. a big ask and it won't make a difference to the seedings but i think i'd just about prefer to face them over croatia. similarly there's a (very) small chance france could finish ahead of serbia, who are strong, but i would still rather face them then the french.

on the flip side, if latvia win/draw in greece and portugal finish second we'd both our 4th seed spot and the chance to face greece...

That's the group that really matters.... bosnia and slovenia should make it and be beneath us, sweden might make it and hopefully won't overtake us, but the only way we'd have four teams beneath us would be if latvia made it.... which is a big ask. 6:30 kick off irish time, i believe.

also, i wouldn't count bosnia just yet.... they almost certainly have to win in estonia..... 1 pt there means they need a point v spain, otherwise it would be turkey who can win their two games v belgium away and armenia at home.... which would throw a spanner in the works.

it's a pity norway only have ten points, cos they are also beneath us in the rankings, which is kind of irritating..... and unless france really **** this up, we can't hold any hope out for Austria, though stranger things have happened...

[Arnold Layne]

A draw for Latvia in Greece might be enough for Ireland, if Moldova got a win in Israel too. That would mean Moldova's results would count as 5th place team in group.

Latvia have taken 3 points against them and are playing Moldova in last game which would give them the chance to get 6 points. Greece have only got 4 points against Moldova.

An unlikely set of events but you never know!

[SuperDave]

A draw for Latvia in Greece might be enough for Ireland, if Moldova got a win in Israel too. That would mean Moldova's results would count as 5th place team in group.

Latvia have taken 3 points against them and are playing Moldova in last game which would give them the chance to get 6 points. Greece have only got 4 points against Moldova.

An unlikely set of events but you never know!

Where moldova finish is unimportant.... whoever finishes second in that group will be the playoffs, what is important is whether they are seeded or not.... we need latvia to make it, not greece.... results v moldova or luxembourg have no bearing on that, all they will do is knock out norway as the second placed team with fewest points.... we would need greece to spectacularly **** up to finish beneath norway in the second place table for it to have any bearing on our seeding or otherwise..... it is almost certain norway will finish bottom of the group though. they need some highly improbable results and **** ups.... though if they made it, it would be good for us.

[Schumi]

though if they made it, it would be good for us.Unless it was us that dropped out!

[Hibs4Ever]

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2009/1007/kilbanek.html

[eaststand85]

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2009/1007/kilbanek.html

They played the Shay Given quotes on Ian Dempsey this morning, fair play to him and Kilbane for saying what most people are thinking.

[Noelys Guitar]

They played the Shay Given quotes on Ian Dempsey this morning, fair play to him and Kilbane for saying what most people are thinking.

Nothing from Delaney about this change in the rules. Fair play to Shay for saying what needed to be said.

[Closed Account]

From another forum

Lads - I said it on here yesterday about us being one of the 'seeded' teams for the playoffs.

I had a proper look and it goes like this (the likeliest outcome) - FIFA ranking in brackets.

Group 1: Sweden (41)(39) or Portugal (17)(11). Sweden two points up and have Denmark away then Albania home. Portugal home to Hungary and Malta.

We need Sweden to come second.

Group 2: Greece (12)(21) or Latvia(58)(46). Level on points. Greece play Latvia on Saturday and then play Luxembourg while Latvia play Moldova.

We need Latvia to come second. Could come down to goal difference.

Group 3: Slovenia (54)(56) likely to come second. edit, Czechs (18)(14) good chance

Group 4: Russia (6)(8) or Germany (4)(6) will come second.

Group 5: Bosnia (46)(42) likely to come second.

Group 6: Croatia (9)(7) or Ukraine (25)(40) will come second.

Group 7: France (10)(10) likely to come second.

Group 8: Ireland (38)(28) likely to come second.

So, IF Latvia & Sweden come second that will leave them along with Bosnia and Slovenia as the four 'weakest' seeds.

So never mind Ireland vs. Italy or Montenegro - COME ON LATVIA / COME ON SWEDEN!

Now, better start working...

EDIT: Norway (43)(36) can 'technically' still qualify ahead of Sweden/Portugal but it's VERY unlikely so I won't bore you with the how.Sums it up quite well. I've added the probable rankings for October in bold. They are calculated from Edgars site (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/fifa-ranking-october-2009-probable.html) but based on these predicted results (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/fifa-ranking-october-2009-probable_07.html).
If we reach the playoffs and so do Ukraine, we'll likely jump ahead of them in the rankings. So we want Latvia, Sweden and Ukraine to come second and join Slovenia and Bosnia. Leaving us 3rd seeds behind France, Russia/Germany. Unlikely, but possible.

Worst case scenario
Russia, Croatia, France, Portugal, Greece, Czech Rep, Ireland and Bosnia will be the playoff teams.

[geysir]

As Ukraine's probable ranking is based on a probable result of losing to England, we might have to beat Italy to stay ahead of them in the FIFA rankings should they beat England.

Probably best to just focus on the game on hand and let the dust settle a bit more in the other groups

[SuperDave]

As Ukraine's probable ranking is based on a probable result of losing to England, we might have to beat Italy to stay ahead of them in the FIFA rankings should they beat England.

Probably best to just focus on the game on hand and let the dust settle a bit more in the other groups

except croatia are much more likely to finish second.... still, if ukraine made it and dropped below us, it would be great not to have to rely on latvia....

all in all, there is some hope of finishing in top seeds, but not much.... we'll see after the weekend.

[geysir]

Unlikely yes, but there are different degrees of unlikely :),
Saturday games according to one Bookie,
Ukraine are 8/5 to win,
Ireland 9/4 to win,
Greece 1/3 to beat Latvia, 7/2 the draw.

[SuperDave]

Unlikely yes, but there are different degrees of unlikely :),
Saturday games according to one Bookie,
Ukraine are 8/5 to win,
Ireland 9/4 to win,
Greece 1/3 to beat Latvia, 7/2 the draw.

we really need ukraine to win.... i had never thought it would make a difference, given how far they are ahead in the rankings at the minute, but there you go....

as an aside, being a top seed is all well and good, but most of the second seeds aren't that easy to play against either.... ukraine, sweden, slovenia, bosnia, latvia.... not to mention generally more difficult and expensive to get to than places like france portugal and germany..... i mean, the teams are not as good as say russia or germany, but greece could yet be in that top pot, and france ain't looking too hot right now..... i mean, i'd like to be in the top seeds and all, but it doesn't make our chances of qualifying significantly easier. easier, yes, but not by much.

[DeLorean]

I'm not too bothered about who'll we'll play and the permutations. Obviously being in the playoff is the first priority and it could work out any which way after that. We could be top seeds and get Ukraine or we could be second seeds and get Sweden or vice versa. There's no telling at the moment what would be better for us.

[Superhoops]

Nothing from Delaney about this change in the rules. Fair play to Shay for saying what needed to be said.

From today's Irish World:

Clearly FAI chief executive John Delaney knows something the rest of us don't as the Republic of Ireland prepare for the visit of World Champions Italy to Croke Park next Saturday. By Damian Dolan - 07/10/09
Down to business

In relaxed mood at the 25th Anniversary Dinner of the London branch of the Republic of Ireland Soccer Supporters Club at the Crown Moran Hotel, Cricklewood, just seven days ahead of Ireland’s World Cup fate being decided, not even FIFA’s moving of the seeding goalposts it seems can dent Delaney’s optimism.

Perhaps it’s the fact that with two games to go Ireland’s fate is very much in their own hands, or perhaps it’s the fact with a two leg play-off the most likely outcome for Ireland another Croke Park sell out in November will further swell the FAI coffers. Although it could well be down to the self satisfaction of having secured the services of Giovanni Trapattoni for another two years.

Either way, FIFA’s eleventh hour u-turn on seeding the play-offs can’t ruin Delaney’s mood with Ireland needing just two points from their remaining two matches against Italy and Montenegro to be sure of a play-off spot.

But with the likes of Germany, France and Portugal struggling to qualify, the lengths that FIFA are prepared to go to favour the ‘bigger’ nations has become painfully transparent. Having received an assurance a year ago that “most likely” there would be no seedings, Delaney was advised only a short few weeks ago that “most likely” there now would be.

[blobbyblob]

As subtext to the ruling, FIFA have decided the following criteria that must be abided by the 2nd seeds of the 2nd place play offs.


No 2nd seeds must have two players with the same coloured hair.

In the interests on "Kick racism out of football", each 2nd seed team must field at least 6 different ethnic groups among their starting IX

No player can be replaced by a player of the same ethnic origin

The squad must have the ability to sing 4 different national anthems in 3 different languages

The 2nd seeds must not appeal any of the referees decision or a result of 2-0 will be awarded to the 1st seeds for that leg.

Should any 2nd seed player receive a yellow card, it will be deemed that the offending country cannot be trusted and as a result will be banned for all further competition for a minimum of 12 years

2nd seed player can be deemed to committed a yellow card offensive for spitting, sweating, falling, jumping, talking or pointing

The 2nd seed manager must use the following words and/or phrases in his/her post match interview - "got what we deserved" - "better team won" - "fair result"

FIFA reserve the right to replay any game should they feel that fairness has been compromised

[paul_oshea]

im assuming the first 3 are in relation to france, germany and russia, being of ethnic diversity...:D very good.