FIFA rankings thread

[RogerMilla]

oh good... that means there is one lucky runner up rather than one unlucky one.... 9*group winners, 1*best runner up 4*playoff winners


Does this make us a 4th seed ??
Originally posted by UEFA Website



The UEFA Executive Committee has approved the procedure for the UEFA EURO 2012™ qualifying competition draw in Warsaw, Poland, on 7 February 2010. The procedure was given the green light at the committee's meeting in Nyon on Monday and Tuesday.

Hosts qualify automatically
Fifty-one of the 53 UEFA member associations will take part in the qualifying draw, as the two UEFA EURO 2012™ host countries, Poland and Ukraine, qualify automatically for the final tournament.

Qualifying competition
The qualifying competition will comprise six groups of six teams (groups A-F) and three groups of five teams (groups G-I). Sides in each group will play one another on a home and away basis, with qualifying matches scheduled according to the international match calendar between September 2010 and November 2011. The nine winners and the best runner-up qualify directly for the final tournament. The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches.

Six pots
For the draw, the 51 teams are allocated to six pots. Pots 1 to 5 contain nine sides each and Pot 6 will have six teams. The sides are classified on the basis of the UEFA national team rankings on completion of the qualifying games for the 2010 FIFA World Cup (last match to be played on 18 November). The reigning European champions (Spain) are seeded in Pot 1.

[geysir]

ATM we are inside the 3rd seed pot for the uefa qual draw with a decent chance of getting into the 2nd seed pot, if we complete this campaign to qualify for the WC.

[RogerMilla]

ATM we are inside the 3rd seed pot for the uefa qual draw with a decent chance of getting into the 2nd seed pot, if we complete this campaign to qualify for the WC.

would be magic to sneak into the second pot

[swinfordfc]

I know FIFA are not putting out the next rankings list till October 16th so are the upcoming games being put into this list - does anyone know?

[gspain]

I know FIFA are not putting out the next rankings list till October 16th so are the upcoming games being put into this list - does anyone know?

Yes that is why they are waiting.

[swinfordfc]

Yes that is why they are waiting.

Cheers - taught that :D

[tricky_colour]

It looks like the ranking procedure has been changed because in these rankings Ireland are ranked 5th :D


1. Spain
2. Brazil
3. Italy
4. France
5. Ireland
6. South Africa
7. Australia
8. New Zealand
9. Denmark
10. Canada
http://tinyurl.com/yc9zlob

[swinfordfc]

Edgar,

can you do your preview on the weekend games if you dont mind :D

[SuperDave]

Edgar,

can you do your preview on the weekend games if you dont mind :D

there's only one thing really matters..... what do we need to do to avoid sweden, latvia, slovenia and bosnia overtaking us.... that's important for now, cos unless those four also make the playoffs, we are second seeds.... and even still, sweden may nip past us if results go their way.

[Edgar]

Edgar,

can you do your preview on the weekend games if you dont mind :D

I did that on September 18th. Check my blog, the top section has some links.

[DeLorean]

Just a suggestion but would it make sense to change the name of this thread. Maybe to Ireland: FIFA Rankings or something. It's a bit misleading now that it's developed into a continuously updating rankings thread. Maybe I'm just being petty but sometimes when it pops up to one of the top threads I think we've jumped up another couple of places!!

[geysir]

FIFA did not update their ranking table to take account of the Sept qual.
Before the Sept qualifiers we were officially ranked 38 with 743 points

With a predicted draw against Italy and win against Montenegro we are calculated to have a total of ranking 805 points.

So, for altogether 3 wins and draw, we would only get 60 points?
It seems a bit lean.

[John83]

So, for altogether 3 wins and draw, we would only get 60 points?
It seems a bit lean.
Points expire too. I expect that's having an effect there.

[geysir]

The 1 nil defeat to France dropped off the rankings radar.
I can't imagine there were too many good times after that to worry about with getting reduced in % of ranking value.

For instance in August, Norway got a 100 points for beating Scotland, Croatia got about 60 for beating lowly Belarus away.
It's either a mistake by Edgar or a conspiracy, that allows us only 60 points for 3 wins and a draw.

[gspain]

The 1 nil defeat to France dropped off the rankings radar.
I can't imagine there were too many good times after that to worry about with getting reduced in % of ranking value.

For instance in August, Norway got a 100 points for beating Scotland, Croatia got about 60 for beating lowly Belarus away.
It's either a mistake by Edgar or a conspiracy, that allows us only 60 points for 3 wins and a draw.

If we beat Italy we'd get another 89 points.

It is down to a number of factors including the quality of the opposition, the importance of the game and as has been said points drop off as well.

I think we lose the win over Cyprus and the draw with Switzerland in October 2005 for example.

[geysir]

Still, all we lose is 20% of the value of those games from 4 years ago,
one win, one draw and one loss from our last 3 games in WC qual 2006

According to Edgar our ranking points of 748, did not shift after our wins against Cyprus and SA.
You would think, offsetting what we gain against what we lose, from a starting point of 748 ranking points on Sept 2,

we gain 80% of the ranking points on offer v Cyprus
gain 100% against SA
gain 100% against Montenegro
gain 80% for drawing against Italy - plus a small bonus

Other games that lose a % of ranking impact are from sept Oct 2006/ 2007 /2008

Overall you would think that we would benefit substantially from that.

[foureyes]

i'm now more confused than ever.

is it still the case then that if ukraine finish second and we beat both italy and montenegro, we would be top seeds?

[geysir]

No, there is more to it.
We would be ahead of Ukraine in the seeding pot, but there is the matter of Portugal and the Czech republic should they be in the qual draw.

[foureyes]

No, there is more to it.
We would be ahead of Ukraine in the seeding pot, but there is the matter of Portugal and the Czech republic should they be in the qual draw.

ah yes of course, i meant assuming other teams finish as they are.

would a draw with italy be enough?

[geysir]

The ranking points predictions are a mystery to me if we only get 60 points for 3 wins plus a draw plus at the same time improving our overall win ratio over the 4 years
in contrast to Norway alone getting a 100 points for a single win in August.

In the light of this unexplainable conspiratorial process to keep our ranking points down, we would have to beat Italy to keep ahead of the Ukraine if they beat England.

[foureyes]

The ranking points predictions are a mystery to me if we only get 60 points for 3 wins plus a draw plus at the same time improving our overall win ratio over the 4 years
in contrast to Norway alone getting a 100 points for a single win in August.

In the light of this unexplainable conspiratorial process to keep our ranking points down, we would have to beat Italy to keep ahead of the Ukraine if they beat England.

i worked out before that we get 1470 points for beating italy. then you have to plug that into the weighted value of 48 months - not easy.

why do i get the feeling that we're spending more time trying to figure this out than anyone in the fai is...

[Edgar]

The 1 nil defeat to France dropped off the rankings radar.
I can't imagine there were too many good times after that to worry about with getting reduced in % of ranking value.

For instance in August, Norway got a 100 points for beating Scotland, Croatia got about 60 for beating lowly Belarus away.
It's either a mistake by Edgar or a conspiracy, that allows us only 60 points for 3 wins and a draw.

It's neither.

Sep-Oct 2005 is going out: France (L), Cyprus (W), Switzerland (D). All qualifiers.


Sep-Oct 2006 going from 0.3 to 0.2: Cyprus (L), Czech Republic (D). Both qualifiers.

Sept-Oct 2007 going from 0.5 to 0.3: Slovakia (D), Czech Republic (L), Germany (D). All qualifiers.

Sept-Oct 2008 going from 1.0 to 0.5: Georgia (W), Montenegro (D), Cyprus (W). All qualifiers.

New matches: Cyprus (W), South Africa (W) and probable results: Italy (D), Montenegro (W).

With all these results losing value this is what happens:

"0.2" - you lose 15.43 points.
"0.3" - you lose 1.56 points.
"0.5" - you gain 60.56 points
"1.0" - you gain 18.45 points.

Added up - around 62 points.

You can also take a look at this FIFA ranking (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/2010-world-cup-uefa-teams-to-be-seeded_07.html) post with all the teams in the running for a play-off spot.

[twoenz]

This is more complicated than the Duckworth Lewis method for rain at cricket!

[geysir]

Thanks for that Edgar.
The big loss was losing 50% the value of 2 wins and a draw from last year.

I thought it looked suspect that before our 2 games this Sept, we had 743 ranking points and according to your table, we had the same 743 points afterwards.

[Edgar]

Thanks for that Edgar.
The big loss was losing 50% the value of 2 wins and a draw from last year.

I thought it looked suspect that before our 2 games this Sept, we had 743 ranking points and according to your table, we had the same 743 points afterwards.

If you're talking about the third column in the FIFA Ranking preview, those are the official FIFA points for the Republic of Ireland in the September ranking.

[geysir]

The official FIFA points for Ireland are from Sept 2.
Before the Sept games?

[Edgar]

Yes, those are the most recent official values available. If you go through the previews, you'll see the minimum and maximum values have changed after the September games. So there's no conspiracy or mistake.

[geysir]

Yes I see the preview.
The starting point is 743 points, which is the official Fifa ranking from Sept 2
and the max min prediction looks to be based on 2 games only, the last 2 games.

[foureyes]

so what about our points from the south africa and cyprus wins? not that many maybe but still.

i'm with geysir on this, i don't see how we can be starting on 743, unless it's purely coincidental.

i note also that all the other teams are starting from their sept 2 position, so i guess edgar is grouping the 4 matches in his preview, however when i click on 'the list of results used for this ranking' only the italy and montenegro matches are mentioned.

[Edgar]

Yes I see the preview.
The starting point is 743 points, which is the official Fifa ranking from Sept 2
and the max min prediction looks to be based on 2 games only, the last 2 games.


so what about our points from the south africa and cyprus wins? not that many maybe but still.

i'm with geysir on this, i don't see how we can be starting on 743, unless it's purely coincidental.

OK, I see you don't believe me without solid proof. Fair enough - although I kind of expected a little bit of trust :) after getting the 2010 WCQ pots (http://foot.ie/forums/showthread.php?p=958506#post958506) right.

First of all, the 743 is not the starting point - those are just the points Republic of Ireland had in the September ranking (the official one published by FIFA). In previews I list the teams using the last available official ranking (September in this case).

FIFA Ranking (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/09/fifa-ranking-october-2009-preview-ii.html): October 2009 preview (II)
FIFA Ranking (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/fifa-ranking-october-2009-preview-v.html): October 2009 preview (V)

Look for the Republic of Ireland in both posts.

First link:Min 764, Max 799.
Second link: Min 685, Max 894.

The September wins vs. Cyprus and South Africa are already in.

[foureyes]

OK, I see you don't believe me without solid proof. Fair enough - although I kind of expected a little bit of trust :) after getting the 2010 WCQ pots (http://foot.ie/forums/showthread.php?p=958506#post958506) right.

First of all, the 743 is not the starting point - those are just the points Republic of Ireland had in the September ranking (the official one published by FIFA). In previews I list the teams using the last available official ranking (September in this case).

FIFA Ranking (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/09/fifa-ranking-october-2009-preview-ii.html): October 2009 preview (II)
FIFA Ranking (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/fifa-ranking-october-2009-preview-v.html): October 2009 preview (V)

Look for the Republic of Ireland in both posts.

First link:Min 764, Max 799.
Second link: Min 685, Max 894.

The September wins vs. Cyprus and South Africa are already in.

ok i get it now :) i was a bit confused as 'the list of results used for this ranking' only mention the italy and montenegro matches. but evidently the other points are added in aswell.

[geysir]

OK, I see you don't believe me without solid proof. Fair enough - although I kind of expected a little bit of trust :) after getting the 2010 WCQ pots (http://foot.ie/forums/showthread.php?p=958506#post958506) right.

First of all, the 743 is not the starting point - those are just the points Republic of Ireland had in the September ranking (the official one published by FIFA). In previews I list the teams using the last available official ranking (September in this case).

As you may remember it was not enough to have the answer in Maths, you had to show how you got there :)

My point was about the (confusing to me) preview teams to be seeded in the play off (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/2010-world-cup-uefa-teams-to-be-seeded_07.html)

Considering we had played the games in Sept, then I would have expected the Sept ranking - the one after the Sept Qualifiers - would have been the starting point in this preview when calculating all the max min possibilities for the last 2 games.

However in actuality, you use the FIFA Sept 2 ranking points on the first left hand column and assume that the reader knows that the 2 games already played after Sept 2 are taken into consideration when calculating the max min for the last 2 games.




[

[Edgar]

As you may remember it was not enough to have the answer in Maths, you had to show how you got there :)

My point was about the (confusing to me) preview teams to be seeded in the play off (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/2010-world-cup-uefa-teams-to-be-seeded_07.html)

Considering we had played the games in Sept, then I would have expected the Sept ranking - the one after the Sept Qualifiers - would have been the starting point in this preview when calculating all the max min possibilities for the last 2 games.

However in actuality, you use the FIFA Sept 2 ranking points on the first left hand column and assume that the reader knows that the 2 games already played after Sept 2 are taken into consideration when calculating the max min for the last 2 games.

I did that some time ago and some people complained. Go figure :)

[geysir]

I did that some time ago and some people complained. Go figure :)
That would confirm that your first instincts were more clear :D

[SuperDave]

Newsflash: interim rankings for euro 2012 qualifiers released (though obviously subject to change).... looks like third pot for us as we are ranked 22nd in those teams. However, we are beneath Ukraine and Poland, so effectively we are 20th and only need to pass two teams, Israel and Romania..... we want to see those teams fail in the upcoming qualifiers so we get second seed status.

http://www.uefa.com/multimediafiles/Download/uefa/KeyTopics/90/14/55/901455_DOWNLOAD.pdf

[swinfordfc]

May i put it another way ....
hope Portugal dont win in group 1 against Hungary

hope Latvia beat Greece in group 2

and Czech Republic dont beat Poland in Group 3 ...

i think thats leave us in the top 4 seeds? ... am i right saying that? :D

[swinfordfc]

May i put it another way ....
hope Portugal dont win in group 1 against Hungary

hope Latvia beat Greece in group 2

and Czech Republic dont beat Poland in Group 3 ...

i think thats leave us in the top 4 seeds? ... am i right saying that? :D

provided we finish second in our group of course ....

[swinfordfc]

With the draw against Italy - we now as it stand have 755 rankings points - is this collect and if we win on wednesday night - we go up to 805 rankings point? is this right Edgar?

[Edgar]

If you win against Montenegro you'll have 805 points. That's correct.

[Juanace]

Is there any series of reuslts in the remaining qualifiers that will get us into pot 2?

[SuperDave]

Is there any series of reuslts in the remaining qualifiers that will get us into pot 2?

We are going to be in Pot 2. We need both Latvia to pass Greece (which would require Greece to lose at home to Luxembourg and Latvia to beat Moldova, both by loads of goals (total of seven between the two), with Israel not winning in Switzerland) and Sweden to pass Portugal (which would require Portugal failing to beat Malta at home). Only one of those happening might have been enough had we beaten Italy (in which case our ranking may have taken us above Ukraine) but as it is we would need both.

In short, impossible. Longer, we will draw France, Russia, Portugal (assuming they beat Malta) or Greece (assuming they beat Luxembourg and Switzerland don't lose at home to Israel, in which case we could get the Swiss).

[Kingdom]

Dave the lads are asking about Pot 2 for the Euro 12 qualifiers.

[geysir]

It looks to me that if Romania and Ireland both win, they have a good chance to leave pot 3, if both Israel and Slovakia don't win.
Then the play off roulette, even 2 draws, could take us back down again to pot 3.

[SuperDave]

Dave the lads are asking about Pot 2 for the Euro 12 qualifiers.

Duh. Sorry.

Well, before this weekend, we were 22nd, but Poland and Ukraine were above us..... now, that means we need to overtake two teams, Israel Romania and Slovakia being the closest ones (and really, given the numbers, the only feasible ones).... the teams beneath us are Bulgaria (hah!), Norway (didn't play) and Finland (who scraped past Wales), so nothing to worry about there

So the teams above us?

Israel (364 points in front of us) did what was expected and beat Moldova, now we want them to lose to the Swiss (a draw would qualify the Swiss for the world cup, Israel need a win to stand a playoff chance)... we may pass them.
Romania (602 in front of us) lost 5-0 to Serbia, and can't really improve much at home to the Faroes, so hopefully that result has seriously fcuked them up.... we'll see
Slovakia (1,725 in front of us) lost 2-0 at home to Slovenia, a dreadful result, and have to go to Poland.... if they fail to win there, they will be in the Playoffs, where another hammering could further affect them

In short, none of the teams have had great results and we could rise... but wins are important.... the criteria don't take into account respective rankings of opponents etc and strongly favour teams who qualify for tournaments, but we shall see... a win on wednesday would appear to be necessary though, along with an Israeli defeat.

[SuperDave]

sorry, my calcs were bull****.... i'll fix it tomorrow

[geysir]

Edgar has already posted what the Euro 2012 pots look like after saturdays games
Euro 2012 qual draw (http://www.football-rankings.info/2009/10/euro-2012-qualifying-draw-coefficients.html)

[boysingreen]

A win vs. Montenegro and in both qualifiers will do us grande ;)
------------------

The above is not the result of any mathematical equation, just wishful thinking! Sure we'd be better off in Pot 2, but is there anyone in there already that should give us nightmares?

[SuperDave]

I've done a spreadsheet that allows you to put in results in upcoming games and calculated seedings from there. I'll email it to anyone who wants it if they pm me their email address. For what it's worth, I put in some results and the following is a screenshot:

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/5924/potentialcoefficients.jpg

The results are something of a 'best case' scenario..... Obviously!!

[swinfordfc]

I think we will be 32nd placed in tomorrow rankings list

[SuperDave]

These are the up to date UEFA Euro 2012 seedings (I have included the bonus points for making the playoffs but obviously no data related to the results)

Spain ----- 39,964
Germany -- 38,294
Netherlands 37,821
Italy ------ 35,838
England --- 34,686
Croatia ---- 33,677
Russia ---- 33,067
France ---- 32,711
Portugal --- 32,580 - First Seeds
Greece ---- 31,365 - Second Seeds
Czech Rep - 30,871
Sweden --- 30,695
Switzerland 30,395
Serbia ----- 29,811
Turkey ---- 29,447
Ukraine ---- 29,341
Denmark --- 29,222
Slovakia --- 28,228
Romania --- 28,145 - Second Seeds
Israel ------ 28,052 - Third Seeds
Bulgaria --- 27,198
Ireland ---- 26,948
Finland ---- 26,827
Poland ----- 26,620
Norway ---- 26,210
Bosnia ----- 25,785
Scotland --- 25,646
Slovenia ---- 24,681
N Ireland --- 24,518 - Third Seeds
Austria ----- 24,381 - Fourth Seeds
Latvia ------ 23,303
Hungary ---- 23,048
Lithuania --- 22,071
Belarus ----- 21,515
Belgium ----- 21,426
Wales ------- 21,274
Macedonia -- 19,409
Cyprus ------ 18,791 - Fourth Seeds
Montenegro - 18,751 - Fifth Seeds
Albania ------18,319
Estonia ----- 17,792
Georgia ----- 15,819
Moldova ---- 15,734
Iceland ----- 15,404
Armenia -----15,164
Kazakhstan --14,730
Liechtenstein 13,581 - Fifth Seeds
Azerbaijan ---13,500 - Sixth Seeds
Luxembourg --11,872
Malta ------- 11,517
Faroes ------10,620
Andorra ----- 9,197
San Marino -- 7,783

Playoff teams are in bold.

Three of the top four teams are likely to remain first seeds, with the fourth one remaining / dropping to second seed status.

Ukraine are likely to say second seeds.

We are almost certain to remain third seeds, along with Bosnia.

Slovenia will possibly be third seeds, but could slip to fourth!

I'll include an automatic calculator once the draw is made.