Went and did up that chart anyway - may as well while we wait for the draws tomorrow.Originally Posted by pineapple stu
So yeah, the gap between first and second in each of the last seven seasons has surpassed every season from 2000-2014 except for two (2007, which only equalled the lowest gap in the last seven years, and 2008, which was an anomalously large romp to the title from Bohs). Similarly, the gap between first and third in each of the last five seasons has been bigger than every season from 2000-2016.
2020 was only half a season of course, yet the gaps are consistent with the other seasons around then.
This year is shaping up to be a bit tighter (around 10 points to each, based on a points-per-game calculation off current standings), though I think Rovers finished strongly the last couple of seasons, helped by more strength in depth, and that may end up being the case again this year.
Anyways, it does suggest that even if Dundalk/Rovers are a match for previous champions, the chasing pack isn't what it used to be.
Last edited by pineapple stu; 01/08/2022 at 10:44 PM.
This is the exact issue for me when it comes to discussing the relative strength of the league compared to 10 years ago. If rovers go on to win the league this year (which I think is more likely to happen if we don't make group stages) that will be 8 of the last 9 years one or other has won the league while winning by record margins over second and 3rd. The league may not be stronger but the top teams are better imo.
The climate might be about to change again though as I can't see Derry not improving with the budget they now have and dundalk should be better next year as well.
Nice work. Of course Dundalk's best side were probably a lot more than a match for, let's say, the bohs team of the 2000s. One is talked about as being possibly the best side in LoI history and one isn't. So the league itself might still be stronger even if we know it's been dominated by Dundalk/Rovers/Cork lately.Went and did up that chart anyway - may as well while we wait for the draws tomorrow.
So yeah, the gap between first and second in each of the last seven seasons has surpassed every season from 2000-2014 except for two (2007, which only equalled the lowest gap in the last seven years, and 2008, which was an anomalously large romp to the title from Bohs). Similarly, the gap between first and third in each of the last five seasons has been bigger than every season from 2000-2016.
2020 was only half a season of course, yet the gaps are consistent with the other seasons around then.
This year is shaping up to be a bit tighter (around 10 points to each, based on a points-per-game calculation off current standings), though I think Rovers finished strongly the last couple of seasons, helped by more strength in depth, and that may end up being the case again this year.
Anyways, it does suggest that even if Dundalk/Rovers are a match for previous champions, the chasing pack isn't what it used to be.
I'd like to think the standard has actually improved but my memories of the 2000s aren't that great to be honest.
What is the main indicator of a regression for you stu? European results? Just a general view that the football on the field isn't the same as it used to be? Certainly the level of competitiveness has gone down...but has the standard?
21 leagues and 25 cups.
Euro results is the obvious one - it's undeniable they're not at the 00s level. That whole era wasn't sustainable of course - and yet the money wasn't so ludicrous as to not be achievable again in a sustainable way. It's effectively the FAI's target for the league after all (30th in the rankings), even if they clearly haven't thought through how it might happen.
The drop in the 10s is far less stated and there's definitely an argument the league has stood still rather than declined in that time. I think we've had some very fortunate Euro draws of late that are helping push up the coefficient a bit. The chart I had a while back on five-year Euro results against nations in the 50s/40s/etc showed results getting steadily worse. But then Mura/Motherwell happened of course, which are exactly the results we haven't been having lately.
But I think there's also a case of good clubs imploding and being replaced in the scheme of things by weaker clubs (borne out by that second chart). Cork went pop as Rovers came on the scene as a challenger - fine. But them Dundalk's millions ran out and no-one has taken up the mantle of legitimate title contender from them (though Derry might soon). Bohs, Sligo and even Pat's have gone backwards the last couple of years and I don't think clubs improving (Derry; Dundalk's improvement over the last two years) has balanced that out.
And the current UCD team wouldn't have a chance against the UCD side relegated in 2008 (Gregg, Finn, McFaul, McNally, Mahon, Duggan, Conan Byrne, etc)
@redobit, @EatYerGreens, cut out the snark please.
Rovers last year and Cork City in 2019 both received byes through rounds in the ECL where they would have both expected to be competitive - that cost the league a few co-efficient points - Sligo got a tough draw last year in EL when there were alternatives from Faroes / Wales in their pot. We've had fortunate draws but we've also had some tough draws, I think last weeks , added to Dundalk's result v Vitesse and Bohs result against PAOK last season plus the previous season Dundalk getting past Sheriff and getting to group stages shows a bit of an upward trend in general. Its also encouraging that different teams are getting big results. Remains to be seen of course if the league can keep it up.
Realistically it needs to be followed up by rovers beating shkupi. Last year they were champions and seemed to not have the ambition. This time i hope the result against the bulgarians and their relative cushion in the league shud galvanise them.
Losing this one might actually mean a tougher draw in the ecl.
One thing not mentioned here in this discussion is call ups to Ireland. I distinctly recall dundalk good year in the group stages leading to alot of positive vibes and at least one call up and 2 or 3 transfers to decent clubs, or Keith fahey versus hertha berlin for pats.
kenny as ireland manager, you imagine fai notwithstanding, would hardly overlook players etc standing out.
playing well in the group stages deepens players experience, highers their profile and improves the quality overall.
The losers of Qarabag or Ferencvaros for Rovers if they get through in the Europa league,not great…..
Last edited by joey B; 02/08/2022 at 11:29 AM.
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
Nasty! Must win the next tie for group football, make sure now and not hope for a nice draw.
Ballkani (Kosovo) or KI (Faroes) in the Conference league for Rovers if they lose in the Europa league,a great draw that and be a major disappointment if they don’t get group stages of some description now….
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
Poxy draw for next round of Europa, albeit it would be effectively a free hit as group stages of conference league guaranteed. If Rovers don't get passed Skhupi (50/50 for any non blinkered football viewers) the draw for the conference league is very much in Rovers favour. Hopefully it won't come to that.
Binfield have the luck of the Irish in these draws with Hearts or Hibs of Malta awaiting.
Rovers really do get a lot of luck with these draws in the last 2 years. If they don’t beat a side from Macedonia, Kosovo or the Faroes from potentially two attempts, they deserve to be shot.
Sligo Rovers will face Dunajska Streda or FCSB (formerly Steaua Bucharest) in the Europa Conference League play-off if they beat Viking
We’ve had some draw in Europe if we were of any use
Brondby or Basel for Pats if they get past CSKA Sofia….
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
LOITV say they’re showing it
What a comment! 😂
A tad overly-dramatic but it gave me some laugh.
Not a bad draw for Sligo... They wont get past Viking, but if they do, FCSB are beatable (or as beatable as Viking are)... They won't win either rounds, but as draws go- and there are no more easy rounds- its as good as they could wish for.
Pats.... No chance if they can get through. Unlikely, but CSKA is a club in turmoil, they might have a chance... The first leg for Pats is huge, especailly with the weather. Hopefully they dont get swept away and give themselves a chance at Home.
Rovers... No excuses for not making the conference group stages now. Baiscally to get to the group stages, they just had to beat the Maltese Champions and one of Macedonia/ Kosovo/ Faro Islands champions. It really can not get any more straight forward.
Shooting them is probably a bit OTT alright but some heads will have to roll if they don't at least make the Conference group stages.
It would seem to be a fair expectation. The qualifiers are fraught with danger but to lose two of those rounds would be a complete failure.
https://foot.ie/forums/117-Kerry-FC
A Championship: 4 years - 8 first teams - 0 financially ruined. First Division '14: 7 first teams.
Opportunity lost for new clubs/regions to join the LoI family.
I'd always be of the view that if you're going to get knocked out (and you are) that someone nondescript like Dunajska Streda or even Straus isn't any fun. You may as well go out in a blaze of glory against Villarreal or someone like that.
On that basis, I think Pat's have the better draw (even if obviously it'll be a good feat to get either side through to it)
Posting Permissions
Quote
Bookmarks