QuoteRovers home game is on LOI TV not sure about the away leg.Originally Posted by pineapple stu
Also I know Pat's are on the telly and Sligo may be a dodgy stream at best, but any word on how we can watch the mighty Shkupi? Or did I miss that?
Rovers home game is on LOI TV not sure about the away leg.
Went and did up that chart anyway - may as well while we wait for the draws tomorrow.
So yeah, the gap between first and second in each of the last seven seasons has surpassed every season from 2000-2014 except for two (2007, which only equalled the lowest gap in the last seven years, and 2008, which was an anomalously large romp to the title from Bohs). Similarly, the gap between first and third in each of the last five seasons has been bigger than every season from 2000-2016.
2020 was only half a season of course, yet the gaps are consistent with the other seasons around then.
This year is shaping up to be a bit tighter (around 10 points to each, based on a points-per-game calculation off current standings), though I think Rovers finished strongly the last couple of seasons, helped by more strength in depth, and that may end up being the case again this year.
Anyways, it does suggest that even if Dundalk/Rovers are a match for previous champions, the chasing pack isn't what it used to be.
Great Graph! Would love to see it compared to other leagues for reference.
If you remove the outlying 2008 season, the gap between First and Second would look very consistent from 2001 to 2014. The gap only consistently widens from the 2015 season onwards, with a seemingly upward permanent trend.
Does anybody have a theory as to why this sudden, yet permanent change? From 2015 to 2021, (7 seasons) there have been three different winners (Dundalk, Cork and Rovers). So it is not like just one club changed everything. The league did change from a 12 team league to 10 in 2018... I wonder if that has anything to do with it.
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Im not so sure about the hypotheses that the chasing pack is not what it used to be is proven however. Gaps in league tables can be explained in a variety of different ways.
For example, Man City won the 20/21 season with a 12 and 17 point gap to 2nd and 3rd respectively (on the higer end of our scale)- yet 4th place Chelsea won the European Cup... Hardly an example of the lack of depth in the EPL that year.
A counter point (although not so sure either of this)... Such big gaps might also reflect a growth in comptiveness at the bottom end of the league. That teams on the lower end of the league might be more consistently able to take points off the upper middle teams ( and up to 2nd place), as their standards have improved. Although, the eventual winner is still too good to drop points to these teams, the chasing pack might (or at least to a greater extent than the eventual winners).
For example, if the league had 7 Finn Harps in it (sorry Finn Harps)... The gap between Rovers and Dundalk and Derry would be much lower, as their would be less oppurtunity for those clubs to drop points. If Finn Harps and UCD were replaced by two Shelbourne teams, both Dundalk and Derry might drop points more often, but Rovers would still have enough quality to not... hence, it would be a bigger gap in this example, even if the quality of each of the three selected teams stayed the same.
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Just to add as well. Between 2010 and 2019 (10 seasons) there were 5 different winners- Shamrock Rovers, Sligo, St. Pats, Dundalk and Cork. (Just saying, not like the league was uncompetitive- at least before the season.). That's more (or the same depending on how you count seasons) of the famously competitive Premier League (4 between 09/10 to 18/19 or 5 between 10/11 to 19/20).
That's also more winners that the previous decade (Shels, Bohs, Cork and Drogheda)- whom all faced crises soon after winning. In the 10 to 19 period, Cork, the only team to win a league in both decades, faced a crisis.
Absolutely - they looked to underestimate the Estonians last year - but that was a decent Flora team who got 5 points in the group stages are were in the hunt for qualification right up to group stage 6 so I'm not sure last seasons loss meant lack of ambition just came up against a good team.
So if Rovers' beat Shkupi does that mean they have been unlucky in the draw or if they lose they've been lucky? I can't keep up with all these lucky and unlucky draws!
We'd probably still finish in the bottom two.
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
In that time we've seen an exceptional Dundalk team which is probably the best team in LOI history and Rovers who have the resources available to them that they could probably put two teams in the league that would finish in the top 3
That obviously doesn't explain Corks years winning it but that is the lowest winning margin in that time and they just had a Seani Maguire freak season I suppose.
Here on a technicality.
I think it was inevitable given the amount of money going to the European teams these days. The bigger question is maybe why it didn't happen sooner (as it did in a lot of other leagues).
I know what you mean on this, but I think we can safely rule it outIn five of the last six seasons (including this year, when it looks odds-on) the bottom team in the Premier has picked up less than 20 points. In the previous 10 seasons, only that spectacularly bad Galway team managed it.
If Rovers beat Shkupi i think they have been fortunate either way tbh.
Beat them and we are in Group stages of CL even if we lose the EL play off round
We are far better off playing in the Conference League group stages than the Europa league so a tough EL play off draw is a positive....Why, well imo....???
The prize money for the EL and Conference league is broadly similar (10/15% more in EL) but your chances of picking up points are greater due to the lessor quality of opposition in the Conference league. A group stage win in the Conference League is worth 500k with a draw 200k (rounded) so the chance of playing lessor opposition for that kind of money is a no brainer for me.
The only issue maybe is you have less chance of a "Glamour tie" with the likes of Man Utd or Spurs in the Europa League but for me we arent going to win the CL or the EL so its just about maximizing the cash for the club to reinvest into winning the league.
Edit : the other part that makes me want to avoid Man U or Spurs (or just English clubs in general) is the most annoyed i have ever been at a football match was Rovers v Spurs in the EL group stages 2011 sitting in front of this D4 accent Dad with his 12 ish year old Kid in Spurs kit loudly talking about "We can beat these lot they are ****"....I actually ended up moving seat because i was afraid id say something and it wasn't the kids fault his Dad was a Tosser
Last edited by sbgawa; 02/08/2022 at 3:20 PM.
Just go beat Skhupi and the rest will fall into place.
If we can't beat one team from Macedonia, Kosovo or Faroes then criticism will be forthcoming and rightly so.
Says a football viewer with blinkers firmly in place!
Rovers are better than 50/50 and would be, or should be disappointed not to progress. First time the Macedonians have been past a QR2 and struggled to get past the Gibraltarian champions, did give Dinamo Zagreb something to think about just going on the results. Its not an anti Rovers bias though, its an expectation of our league's champions to be more confident in facing this level of opposition. Its not easy to really dampen the internal expectation and minimise the disappointment if beaten and then publicly its easier to say that it was not unexpected in the first place. Par for the course for the football fan but i'd hope that a team would have real belief. A trip to Hungary after would be nice for fans if a step too far for a team.
It would be horrible to miss out on European games beyond August considering the possible opposition drawn. I dont think it will happen and I will be irked if there is a real glamour tie after missing out on seeing Dundalk play Arsenal. But yeah the 'we' stuff with 'irish' football fans was avoided, small mercies.
St Pats and Sligo are already in bonus territory and at least have avoided really costly trips, unlikely but wont write them off totally yet.
UEFA have essentially set up the CL to streamline the EL, they dumped the crap into the CL and now the EL is actually an attractive tournament.
The Top seeds so far include United, Arsenal, Lazio and Roma whereas the most attractive draw in the CL is going to be Villareal. I would much rather be in the EL group stages.
Here on a technicality.
Pats second leg against CSKA confirmed for Tallaght......
https://twitter.com/stpatsfc/status/1554489934752497664
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
I take your point and maybe i'm unusual but if we arent going to win a competition then for me its just about whats best for the club and potentially picking up more points and massive amounts of extra money is all that matters.
If you offered me Rovers to win the next ten leagues in a row and not qualify for Europe GS once id take it in a heart beat.
If you discount the English Clubs that i dont want to play i see no difference between Lazio / Roma of Villareal.
I'll still be cheering for Rovers to win the EL PO round if we get there as i couldn't ever cheer against Rovers but its win win either w\ay
All true but attractiveness is secondary to co-efficient points / prizemoney - Rovers might pick up 5 or 6 points in the ECL but I doubt they would pick up anything in the EL.
Ok I'm with you on the last point. The teams getting relegated these days are so far behind the rest it's getting a bit comical. The Shels side who got relegated a few years back are still one of the worst league teams I've ever seen.
Not sure about the fortunate draws. Your analysis earlier is good but I think you have to account for some of the draws that might look fortunate actually being a lot tougher than they would have been in the 00s. World football has changed pretty dramatically over time. I think the standout wins from back then would be a lot harder to achieve now as more money has gone into the top leagues. The minnows from back then are no pushovers now either. Which is absolutely a sign that we've not progressed in line with other leagues but doesn't tell me we are putting out weaker teams than we used to.
On the gap between 1/2 and the rest, I initially thought that it might have to do with the average age drop in squads I keep hearing about. There certainly seems to be more youth in the league than in the 00s when I feel like squads were full of experienced pros. The numbers don't seem to back that up though. Although the higher the average age, the better chance a team has to finish higher up the table (generally speaking with some outliers) the overall average age hasn't changed much since the 00s.
Interesting to look at other leagues. Took a quick glance at the EPL and La Liga and don't really see a correlating pattern. The same pattern is there but not at the same time. Not really comparable leagues I suppose but you do see periods where 2 clubs dominate in both. Usually the richer ones obviously.
The idea that the change in the number of teams qualifying for Europe having some wider effect on things is interesting. It happened right at the line we are drawing. More teams in means teams of a lower quality involved in European competition but maybe it also means that the teams who do well, tend to keep doing well. So if you occasionally get 3rd or the Cup you can invest a little bit more, but not as much as the teams who finished 1st/2nd who might go further in Europe and/or be in a better position to invest for Europe the following season.
21 leagues and 25 cups.
€700k extra to qualify for the group stage of Europa League. I'd probably take that, to be honest. Take your chances with a win or a draw or two on top of that against a fellow qualifier and hope for the best.
https://kesslereffect.bandcamp.com/album/kepler - New music. It's not that bad.
Didn't realize it was 700k. Bigger gap than previously indicated.
Zagreb 2-0 up in Bulgaria inside 10 mins.
Draw has been kind to us but the Macedonians and I’d say Kosovans / Faroese be thinking the same about drawing us. Realistically though we should get group stages of CL. Hard to see winning play off in EL if we do progress vs shkupi
pats in with a shout v Sofia?
Klaksvik are no mugs if Rovers do end up playing them,they beat Bodo 3-1 in the second leg after losing the away leg 3-0.had them in fits and were really unlucky not to take them to extra time......
Irish by birth ,Harps by the grace of god.
Squeaky bum time.
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