LOI in Europe 2023

[ifk101]

There is a player drain but noteworthy, not on the coaching side. Given our population base, interest in the sport, and ability to export players, maybe the coaching/ management isn't good enough?

[DCWA]

There is a player drain but noteworthy, not on the coaching side. Given our population base, interest in the sport, and ability to export players, maybe the coaching/ management isn't good enough?

Also through choice Bradley has turned down Lincoln and Higgins has turned down both Notts County and Barnsley in the last year. Had they took those jobs and one or both done well enough could’ve got the ball rolling on that front.

[Eminence Grise]

I had the exact same thought earlier today, IFK. I did a litttle digging into it to see what we might deduce from some basic info.

Manager	Age	Managed Abroad	Coached Abroad	Time as manager
Declan Devine	49	No	Dunfermline, 2006–2007	Fifth season
Liam Buckley	63	No	No	19th season
Ruaidhrí Higgins	38	No	No	Third season
Kevin Doherty	43	No	No	Fourth season
Stephen O'Donnell	37	No	No	Fifth season
Jon Daly	40	Hearts – 5 games, interim.	TPS Turku U23 and Asst Manager, both 2020-21	First season
Stephen Bradley	38	No	No	Seventh season
Damien Duff	44	No	Celtic, 2019-20	Second season
John Russell	38	No	No	Second season
Andy Meyler	47	No	No	Fourth season

Managers in italics are in their first senior managerial role.
Managers in bold previously played for the club they now manage.

Four out of the ten managers are debutants, and if you hold the view that Daly’s five games as interim manager with Hearts realistically counts for very little, then to all extents and purposes half of the division’s managers have never held a full managerial appointment before.

Daly does have coaching experience abroad, as do Devine and Duff – though none of the three have more than one season’s worth of coaching experience.

Half of the managers now manage a club they previously played for – and three of those are debutantes.

Three things jump out at me:

• The managerial pool is narrower than it should be, when old boys are so dominant as managers. It's not always a case of better the devil you know.
• The pool is too inexperienced: only two managers have more than five seasons (whole or part) on their CVs, and only one of those has over ten seasons. I wonder whether any other top flight domestic league has 50% of its managers in their first appointment. It makes me wonder whether managers are getting increasingly few chances to learn on the job and gain experience, as there is always a younger, presumably cheaper, cohort of debutants and the inexperienced snapping at their heels.
• There is a complete and utter lack of experience of continental experience of football at a coaching level, Daly excepted. I’m inclined to discount Scotland, maybe unfairly, but it is largely part of the ‘British’ football tradition, the same as ourselves.

So, throwing out some contradictory inferences for discussion …

• The league is not attractive to foreign managers, or club administrators are too insular in their hiring patterns.
• The large number of European and further afield players who come here and flop do so because they’re not up to it, or the coaching they get is not sophisticated or evolved enough to maintain their standards.

I haven’t looked back on previous managers, but how many LoI managers went on to manage outside the league after or because of their LoI experience? Stephen Kenny, Pat Fenlon, and Paul Cook jump to mind, though none of them were outside the British sphere.

I’d argue that not producing the players is a lesser problem than not producing the managers. I'm off on holibobs tomorrow, so I won't get to do it, but digging through the last ten years to see how many managers have had more than four seasons or managed at least three clubs, how many haven't managed in the last five years and so on could throw up some interesting data.

[TheBoss]

I know there is a debate about the current level of performance of LOI. Just to add some stats to the equation here. I know that stats can be unreliable and does not take many factors into consideration. But it can be a good judge over a long period of time. So, here is a snippet comparing LOI performances from the last 3 decades:

Decade	Matches	W	D	L	FOR	AGST	W%	D%	L%	F/pg	A/pg	Q	NQ
2000s	136	40	35	61	137	186	29%	26%	45%	1.01	1.37	27	41
2010s	144	33	32	79	130	230	23%	22%	55%	0.90	1.60	23	45
2020s	71	25	13	33	80	105	35%	18%	46%	1.13	1.48	16	18

[EalingGreen]

Decade	Matches	W	D	L	FOR	AGST	W%	D%	L%	F/pg	A/pg	Q	NQ
2000s	136	40	35	61	137	186	29%	26%	45%	1.01	1.37	27	41
2010s	144	33	32	79	130	230	23%	22%	55%	0.90	1.60	23	45
2020s	71	25	13	33	80	105	35%	18%	46%	1.13	1.48	16	18

Interesting stats, to which I would add another if I may. At three points for a win and one for a draw, the percentage of points gained is as follows:
2000's - 155/408 = 38.0%
2010's - 131/432 = 30.3%
2020's - 88/213 = 41.3%

This might suggest an inprovement in results recently, but without necessarily also reflecting in an improvement in playing standards. For with seeding, more new small Associations joining UEFA, plus the introduction of the Conference League, I expect a higher percentage of recent games played were against "minnows" (Andorra, Gib, San Mar etc) than earlier in the century?

[pineapple stu]

In fairness, the changes to the draw in the last 20+ years - including the much easier first-round draws these days, particularly in the Conference League - as well as they ability of the champions to be knocked out three times (like last year) does render those stats largely meaningless

[EalingGreen]

In fairness, the changes to the draw in the last 20+ years - including the much easier first-round draws these days, particularly in the Conference League - as well as they ability of the champions to be knocked out three times (like last year) does render those stats largely meaningless

Crossed in the cloud with my Edited additional paragraph above - "great minds" and all that!

[yurt]

It looks like Rovers going 0/4 this year will end up costing our cup winners (I think in the 25/26 season) a place in the Europa League. Need to be in the top 33 and we're currently 32 but Finland, Latvia and Armenia are all likely to overtake us in the coming days and weeks.

A Derry win would be massive because it would leave HJK as the only Finnish team and we would have a small buffer over them if their results go badly in the next couple rounds, but even that is unlikely.

Kazakhstan and Kosovo will fancy their chances of passing us out too if they can pick up a few results, I think we're going to finish the season in 37th unless Derry and Dundalk pull of something big.

[pineapple stu]

On that note, Valmeiras of Latvia beat Tre Penne of San Marino 7-0 today; means Latvia draw level with us (until Thursday anyway)

They were 4-0 up after 12 minutes, which must be close to a record of sorts? Very rare to see a game start with a spree like that

[oriel]

Hadn't realised that no LOI club has ever come back from a 2 goal deficit in the first leg to win the tie. I was surprised to read that as without checking thought there were a few, Cork City v Cwmbran was one that sprung to mind 93, but they lost 3-2 away and won on away goals.

I do recall Dundalk 2-1 down to Fram of Iceland in 1981 ECWC and won 4-0 at home, but that was 'only' overturning a one goal deficit, need to go one more tomorrow, but not sure I can see more than a 2-0 win, that would take it to ET, but means need to keep them scoreless, not going to easy, at either end.

Still surprised it hasn't been done previously overturning 2 goals, but seemingly it hasn't.

[2 Year Contract]

Hadn't realised that no LOI club has ever come back from a 2 goal deficit in the first leg to win the tie. I was surprised to read that as without checking thought there were a few, Cork City v Cwmbran was one that sprung to mind 93, but they lost 3-2 away and won on away goals.

I do recall Dundalk 2-1 down to Fram of Iceland in 1981 ECWC and won 4-0 at home, but that was 'only' overturning a one goal deficit, need to go one more tomorrow, but not sure I can see more than a 2-0 win, that would take it to ET, but means need to keep them scoreless, not going to easy, at either end.

Still surprised it hasn't been done previously overturning 2 goals, but seemingly it hasn't.

Not quite a first leg deficit but still a 2 goal comeback, in 2009 Pats trailed Krylia Sovetov 3–1 on aggregate with 18 minutes of the second leg to go and ended up advancing on away goals. In that case we won the first leg 1–0 in Inchicore, then went 3–0 down in Russia in the return leg before scoring twice in the final 17 mins

[oriel]

That was a super comeback to be fair by Pats in 09.

[ger121]

Clubs have lost the away leg 1-0 and come back to win 3-0. Two examples that spring to mind are Bohs and Dundalk, both ironically against BATE. So has been done that a LOI team scores more than 2 in a second leg.

[joey B]

Bredabik 6-1 down on aggregate at half time in the second leg,not a great side I think…..

[Philosophizer]

Bredabik 6-1 down on aggregate at half time in the second leg,not a great side I think…..

7-1 down now. They weren’t any great shakes. As shown in the second half in Tallaght Rovers were able to put them under pressure. It’s just that Rovers were way off the pace for the rest of the tie.

[ger121]

7-1 down now. They weren’t any great shakes. As shown in the second half in Tallaght Rovers were able to put them under pressure. It’s just that Rovers were way off the pace for the rest of the tie.

8-3 now on agg. Lot of goals in this game. KI on their way to penalties it seems. 3-3 in that one.

[patsdad]

Dudelange will know how we felt when they did it to us. They’ve just overturned an away leg deficit to level their tie late in the second half then shortly afterwards conceded a sucker punch to go out.

[ger121]

KI win! Into 3rd round of CL qualifiers and guaranteed group stage football.

[joey B]

Klaksvik of the Faroes through on penalties against Hacken ,some result that....

[Philosophizer]

Klaksvik of the Faroes through on penalties against Hacken ,some result that....

Faroese team guaranteed group stage. Breidablik battered by Copenhagen, and Dudelange dumped out by a team from Malta.

Really puts in perspective how badly Rovers and Pats did this year.