Labour After Gilmore

[culloty82]

With a number of Labour Senators on the brink of rebellion over the Social Welfare Bill, and grassroots members backing Keaveney as party chairman, it appears highly likely that Gilmore will be challenged for the Labour leadership in the next 12 months. In that event, it appears Burton would become interim leader, but her popularity has dimmed due to the last week's events. Certainly, "Old Labour" seems to be attempting to regain control from Democratic Left, but with most of the current ministers on the brink of retirement, and younger TDs facing inevitable defeat, will Sinn Féin become the main left-wing party after 2016?

[wonder88]

It will not be that easy for "Old Labour" to get their party back. Once the comrades from the Workers Party get control of something it is hard to remove them, see RTE for a good example. Look at the number of ex-stickies in other media organisations as well, top positions in education, the arts and semi-state sector. Still if the labour grassroots membership have any hope of saving their party, they must back Keaveney against Gilmore/Rabbitt/Sherlock etc. Fianna Fáil always claimed to represent the working man in Irish political life and until the last election always received the biggest share of the urban working class vote. Gilmore's Labour seem to think that following a liberal social agenda; gay marriage, abortion etc will get them some public support while letting the Fine Gael Tories set the economic policies.

[Eminence Grise]

Well, he went today, having survived quite a few challenges along the way. Disastrous campaign, disastrous elections for Gilmore. Mr Anonymous in his ministerial portfolio (since the Good Friday Agreement, FA has really meant, well, f.a. in fairness), maybe now Labour can start to weed out the old DL rump. Seems to be the young turks in the party who moved the no confidence motion, which - if they can get the numbers - might lead to a loss of power for the old brigade. No harm, there. Who's likely to take over?

[BonnieShels]

I think this is the end of Labour.

SF have likely cemented their place as the party of the Left. Shame, but this was always going to happen after they went into government with FG.

No stomach at all. And a GE coming sooner than we should have hoped. Le sigh.

Wrote a wee bit about it as he resigned.

Midterm Elections: The Aftermath
So it has happened. Gilmore has been pushed. The disastrous performance by Labour at the polls meant his removal was swift, but it will not be painless.

That some of the leadership of the party have expressed surprise at the result of these elections is rather sobering. We knew this was going to happen. It is mid-term of an unpopular government. These elections always register as protest votes. The sheer volume of independents and one-policy candidates elected shows this.

The major issue at hand here is that there is now an instability within Labour. Or should I say, a greater instability within Labour. Labour, as a political party, are constantly in a reactionary mode. They rarely think long-term and lurch from one crisis to the next – one purge to the next, one election to the next – and on and on it has gone since they abstained from the 1918 election. Yes 1918.

In the aftermath of a triumphant election in 2011, Labour had a sniff of government, and given it was the last opportunity for the old-school wing of the party to get a ministry it was never countenanced that they would allow Fine Gael go about the renewal of the economy as a minority government.

That single decision has possibly dealt a fatal blow to the Labour Party. Sinn Féin are now the major party of the Left, but the most worrying aspect of the aftermath of this election is, of course, Fianna Fáil’s success at local level. Yes, Fianna Fáil. The Fianna Fáil that caused the destruction of the country under the watchful eye of Bertie and the Brians. No matter what they throw at us, it seems that as a people we have an incredible capacity to forgive them. I have known people to talk about John Bruton attempting to tax children’s shoes in the 1982 budget as a reason to not vote for Fine Gael, but it seems the scale of the mismanagement of the country from 1997 – 2011 does not warrant a similar period of time in the shadows.

The one silver lining is that Dublin seems to have had enough of FF. Maybe the rest of the country can stop using pot-holes and “cute-hoorism” as a reason to elect a local representative. We can but hope.

What does this mean for the 2016 general election? Given Labour’s penchant for self-destruction, I don’t think we will have to wait that long. Shame, because we are just about to “turn the corner”.

http://www.krank.ie/category/opinion...ons-aftermath/

[osarusan]

SF have likely cemented their place as the party of the Left

　

Ｉ　really really hope not.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Labour will end up with 10-15 TDs and go back to being the bleating opposition party they're so much more comfortable being. Sinn Fein will get into power and lose support when it turns out a "wealth tax" won't solve all problems.

[Eminence Grise]

I'm not so sure that it is the end of Labour, Bonnie. I'm holding my fire on that one until I see a complete breakdown of the 'Others' - surely the media could have listed the ULA constituent parties and the Greens separately from the Independents?

SF are clearly the big winners on the left, followed by the ULA parties, but the problem of having a huge number of new candidates is their lack of experience. Add to that the fact that most councils are now going find it very hard to find to achieve consensus on key issues like balancing their budget and I think it's likely that people will see that the new left is really not that well equipped to handle governing, even at local level. If they fail to pass the budget, the council will be suspended; if they pass it but at the expense of small businesses, they'll be hypocrites. And that's even before they get round to abolishing water charges, the household charge, the EU, Angela Merkel and that decadent symbol of the west, Santa Claus! Far easier to be in a position of strength as the opposition shouting no - which, arguably, is where Labour could have been had Gilmore not been power mad in 2011 - than actually having to deliver something tangible now.

All in all, though there's been much talk of a left-right realignment which makes a FG-FF coalition quite likely after the next general election, I'm not sure how the left, as fragmented as it is, will find the coherent shape that will fatally marginalise Labour. Remember there's not a lot of love lost among the ULA parties. A lot depends on who succeeds Gilmore: I think it has to be somebody from the younger side of the party and definitely not connected to DL.

[BonnieShels]

I'm not so sure that it is the end of Labour, Bonnie. I'm holding my fire on that one until I see a complete breakdown of the 'Others' - surely the media could have listed the ULA constituent parties and the Greens separately from the Independents?

SF are clearly the big winners on the left, followed by the ULA parties, but the problem of having a huge number of new candidates is their lack of experience. Add to that the fact that most councils are now going find it very hard to find to achieve consensus on key issues like balancing their budget and I think it's likely that people will see that the new left is really not that well equipped to handle governing, even at local level. If they fail to pass the budget, the council will be suspended; if they pass it but at the expense of small businesses, they'll be hypocrites. And that's even before they get round to abolishing water charges, the household charge, the EU, Angela Merkel and that decadent symbol of the west, Santa Claus! Far easier to be in a position of strength as the opposition shouting no - which, arguably, is where Labour could have been had Gilmore not been power mad in 2011 - than actually having to deliver something tangible now.

All in all, though there's been much talk of a left-right realignment which makes a FG-FF coalition quite likely after the next general election, I'm not sure how the left, as fragmented as it is, will find the coherent shape that will fatally marginalise Labour. Remember there's not a lot of love lost among the ULA parties. A lot depends on who succeeds Gilmore: I think it has to be somebody from the younger side of the party and definitely not connected to DL.

The only way Labour will do anything of note after the next election will be to leave govt ASAP.

The problem with that strategy is that people will accuse them of short-termism and lilly-liveredness, and quite rightly.

If we finally have a a decent economic outlook come 2016 then it will be FG who will make the gains.


I had a quick gander at the Euro results and some of the Dublin council wards. The major thing gleaned is that FF whilst they have done far better than they should have given that they are poison it does seem to me that they are transfer-toxic. So they are getting their core vote but not much thereafter.

To be perfectly honest I think the real winners at these elections have been FG. They should have been decimated given how unpopular the government has been (plus the Shatter thing not happening so long ago and it being akin to a 1000 cuts) and yet whilst their vote is down nationally they aren't that far behind FF on councils. Given the amount of loony lefty independent candidates on so many councils they are now holding the balance of power with FF and SF. Going to be very interesting leading to 2016.

[bennocelt]

Dont know all the hate towards SF, but then I see the odd blueshirt on here As if the last 4/5/7 governments of FF/FG/Lab were great fun for the country unless you buy into the fg/lab tirade of we "had to make the hard decisions". They seem to be doing quite well up north in case you didnt notice!

[Macy]

Labour should never have gone in after the last election - they didn't have the leverage they needed to make a big enough difference. It still would've been a gamble though, as the media would probably still blame them for decisions, because they didn't go in. I do think they have watered down FG's right wing tendancies more than most commentators would like to admit though - any gains are more least worse rather than positives so hard to highlight or get credit for. Although I still think the "Labour Lies" (or even Government Lies) is pretty much bs - anyone who thought that the new Government wouldn't be carrying on a similar agenda, given the position the state was in when it came to power, was deluded.

As for it's long term survival, it needs to move away from the old guard. So sorry Joan, your time has come and gone unfortunately. Even Alex White maybe too old. And it needs to attract back some of the disaffected that have left the party. It'll be a long slog, with Sinn Fein now more socially acceptable - none of the mud thrown at them by sections of the media really stuck, and they've a lot of elected representatives that are't tainted by a history in the troubles. It'll be interesting whether the shinners have the balls, which labour didn't, to try and force a FG/FF coalition or an FG minority Government.

I think the rise of "independents" is a bit overstated to be honest, certainly if it's tried to be tied into a rise of the left. A lot of the supposed independents originate in the main parties. In a couple of areas that I'd take an interest, a lot are essentially independent FF. In the Bray electoral area, several of the independents originate in FF. In Longford, enough FF gene pool "independents" had done a deal with FF proper to take joint control of the council before the count had even finished!

[bennocelt]

The medical card fiasco was something that affected a lot of people, and was a further nail in their coffin.
Its comedy gold if Joan Burton gets the leadership, Giftgrub will be in overdrive.

[osarusan]

Dont know all the hate towards SF

Their economic policies are scarily nonsensical.

[TheBoss]

Their economic policies are scarily nonsensical.

That is a typical right-wing propaganda comment there. The left in every single country are always labelled 'looney', 'crazy', 'mad' etc. I suppose the right-wings economic policy has done everything sensibly over the last 10-15 years.

BTW, just looking at this neutrally

[bennocelt]

AS opposed to FF which bankrupt the country, or fg/lab with the inspirational idea of taxing ordinary people to the hilt. Both a masterclass in economics

Was wondering with a budget coming on in a few weeks/months (?) would Labour pull out to save face with the voters? Watch this space perhaps?

[culloty82]

I think this is the end of Labour.

SF have likely cemented their place as the party of the Left. Shame, but this was always going to happen after they went into government with FG.

No stomach at all. And a GE coming sooner than we should have hoped. Le sigh.

Wrote a wee bit about it as he resigned.



http://www.krank.ie/category/opinion...ons-aftermath/

In fairness, Labour's two major problems have been untackled for decades, and are issues that either SF or the Left (as shorthand for the alphabet soup) have taken advantage of:

1. SF and the Socialists have been far more active in terms of campaigning on social issues and general community activities - that's what gets you councillors and ultimately, TDs.

2. Sinn Féin have reversed the traditional Achilles heel of the Irish left, that is, they started out picking up rural TDs before building up a rural base, something Labour has never quite mastered.

A new leader may ease short-term pressures, but long-term analysis of national structures and internal philosophy must be simultaneous.

[osarusan]

I suppose the right-wings economic policy has done everything sensibly over the last 10-15 years.

AS opposed to FF which bankrupt the country, or fg/lab with the inspirational idea of taxing ordinary people to the hilt. Both a masterclass in economics

What is this, the first page of the Sinn Fein playbook? If somebody mentions their economic policy, immediately point out how bad the others are? And throw in a comment about right-wind propaganda while you're at it.

Pathetic stuff.

[TheBoss]

What is this, the first page of the Sinn Fein playbook? If somebody mentions their economic policy, immediately point out how bad the others are? And throw in a comment about right-wind propaganda while you're at it.

Pathetic stuff.

Again, your first sentence is another attack.

You are saying their policies are nonsensical and not giving any reason why they are. It is an uneducated response, which is one of the many reasons why people are fed up with the usual parties. If you explain why these policies wont work, your opinion will be taken seriously and then we can have a proper discussion about the policies.

[Charlie Darwin]

Again, your first sentence is another attack.

You are saying their policies are nonsensical and not giving any reason why they are. It is an uneducated response, which is one of the many reasons why people are fed up with the usual parties. If you explain why these policies wont work, your opinion will be taken seriously and then we can have a proper discussion about the policies.

Decent article in the Indo (I know, I know) about how costed by the DOF or not, they're a bit daft and populist: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/an...-30306719.html

Not to say the various pre-election plans put forward by the other parties aren't daft too.

[osarusan]

Again, your first sentence is another attack.

You are saying their policies are nonsensical and not giving any reason why they are. It is an uneducated response, which is one of the many reasons why people are fed up with the usual parties. If you explain why these policies wont work, your opinion will be taken seriously and then we can have a proper discussion about the policies.

My first post was not an attack of any kind. It was my opinion, clearly stated.

It's pretty rich to say you're looking for a proper discussion when your initial effort is to assume I must be right-wing and believe the left is loony, because I'm critical of Sinn Fein's economic policy.

[TheBoss]

My first post was not an attack of any kind. It was my opinion, clearly stated.

Yes, I accept your first comment was not an attack.

It's pretty rich to say you're looking for a proper discussion when your initial effort is to assume I must be right-wing and believe the left is loony, because I'm critical of Sinn Fein's economic policy.

I would like to see the evidence of this claim, cause I never said any of that.