Ireland's record in the Aviva.

**Murfinator** · 03/09/2011, 12:50 PM

Argentina 0:1 (Loss)
Andorra 3:1 (win)
Russia 2:3 (Loss)
Norway 1:2 (Loss)
Wales 3:0 (Win)
Macedonia 2:1 (Win)
Uruguay 2:3 (Loss)
NI 5:0 (Win)
Scotland 1:0 (Win)
Croatia 0:0 (Draw)
Slovakia 0:0 (Draw)

5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats

Take out the teams ranked outside the Top 50 in the FIFA rankings (i.e. teams who are unlikely to ever be our competitors for qualifying spots/tournament matches)

Argentina 0:1 (Loss)
Russia 2:3 (Loss)
Norway 1:2 (Loss)
Uruguay 2:3 (Loss)
Croatia 0:0 (Draw)
Slovakia 0:0 (Draw)

0 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats.

Anyone concerned by this? It represents an awful recent home record in my books.

**AlaskaFox** · 03/09/2011, 1:50 PM

3 of them were friendlies, and 2 were against World Cup quarter-finalists.

**Stuttgart88** · 03/09/2011, 4:03 PM

We haven't beaten a no. 1 or 2 seed at home in 10 years. We haven't beaten a no. 2 seed away in 23 years. We've never beaten a no. 1 seed away I think. Our international status is only respectable because we have done OK against teams worse than us.

**Murfinator** · 03/09/2011, 9:55 PM

Originally Posted by AlaskaFox

3 of them were friendlies, and 2 were against World Cup quarter-finalists.

And?

So if we discard all of those we're left with a defeat to Russia and a draw with Slovakia. How does that detract from the point in any way other than narrowing the sample size?

**Murfinator** · 03/09/2011, 9:57 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

We haven't beaten a no. 1 or 2 seed at home in 10 years. We haven't beaten a no. 2 seed away in 23 years. We've never beaten a no. 1 seed away I think. Our international status is only respectable because we have done OK against teams worse than us.

While true we used to have a record as a fearsome team to beat at home, we seem very very beatable these days. The real issue is our home and away form is quite comparable, theres no discernible difference whether we play at home or away which is unusual for most teams.

**DannyInvincible** · 03/09/2011, 10:21 PM

It's oft repeated that the benefit of Trap's reign is that we are a more organised unit and very difficult to beat? When you look at our recent list of results, however, it probably suggests otherwise.

**AlaskaFox** · 03/09/2011, 10:25 PM

Originally Posted by Murfinator

And?

So if we discard all of those we're left with a defeat to Russia and a draw with Slovakia. How does that detract from the point in any way other than narrowing the sample size?

You dismissed decent results against Macedonia and Scotland, two teams who are always likely to cause upsets. Norway too, who are a first seed for the WC qualifiers. If you can pick and choose a particular sample, why can't the rest of us. All the results have merit, whether they're against Argentina or Andorra.

Which is: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses

**theworm2345** · 03/09/2011, 10:34 PM

Well it seemed the Slovak fans were louder than the Irish ones yesterday on the stream so maybe thats part of the problem.

**boovidge** · 03/09/2011, 10:35 PM

Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that

**mypost** · 04/09/2011, 7:53 AM

Originally Posted by Murfinator

Take out the teams ranked outside the Top 50 in the FIFA rankings

It represents an awful recent home record in my books.

Lansdowne Road has hosted Ireland International football games since 1900. Why you don't go back that far in your books and weigh up the wins and losses at the stadium since then?

Ah, but Trap hasn't been coaching us that long, that's why it's not included. It's all about him, after all.

**elroy** · 05/09/2011, 9:29 AM

Getting the big win at home has been our downfall in almost every group in recent years.

2004 campaign: Didnt beat Russia at home when needed to, drew 1-1.

2006 campaign: Lost to France at home 1-0. Drew with Swiss at home when needed to win 0-0. Drew with Israel at home 2-2.

2008 campaign: Lets not recall this campaign.

2010 campaign: Drew with Bulgaria and Italy at home. Lost to France at home.

**Murfinator** · 05/09/2011, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by mypost

Lansdowne Road has hosted Ireland International football games since 1900. Why you don't go back that far in your books and weigh up the wins and losses at the stadium since then?

Ah, but Trap hasn't been coaching us that long, that's why it's not included. It's all about him, after all.

This isn't Landsdowne road, its a new stadium that we seem to have not converted into a place with any sort of home advantage for ourselves. Thats the point.

**John83** · 05/09/2011, 11:44 AM

Originally Posted by Murfinator

And?

So if we discard all of those we're left with a defeat to Russia and a draw with Slovakia. How does that detract from the point in any way other than narrowing the sample size?

Anyone who draws conclusions from a sample size of two is, in my opinion, mathematically illiterate.

**Murfinator** · 05/09/2011, 12:06 PM

You wouldn't draw the conclusion that Barca are vastly superior than united based on their two champions league final wins then, no? Perhaps Fianna Fail aren't a party in decline since they've only lost one general election, maybe we should wait until 2027 before they've lost 5 on the trot before we have a sufficient sample size to make that assertion.

Mathematical occurrences you speak of are in isolation, a victory is an amalgamation of a performance. An aggregate result of attack, defence, fortune and the outcome. It isn't an event in isolation to make a low sample space negligent, you sir are mathematically confused and/or ignorant if you believe it does.

**John83** · 05/09/2011, 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by Murfinator

You wouldn't draw the conclusion that Barca are vastly superior than united based on their two champions league final wins then, no?

No. If I'd only seen those two results, I'd be an imbecile to draw that conclusion. The vast majority of assumptions you make are informed by any number of data points which have been amalgamated into an overall impression. Wolves played Man Utd twice in the league last year: each time it was 2-1 to the home team. Perhaps I should draw the conclusion that Wolves are a team of roughly equal ability to Man U?

Perhaps Fianna Fail aren't a party in decline since they've only lost one general election, maybe we should wait until 2027 before they've lost 5 on the trot before we have a sufficient sample size to make that assertion.

The governing coalition of Sweden lost their majority in general elections last year. Based on that one statistic, tell me, are they in decline? If, based on nothing but the fact of that result, you draw that conclusion, you're an idiot.

Mathematical occurrences you speak of are in isolation, a victory is an amalgamation of a performance. An aggregate result of attack, defence, fortune and the outcome. It isn't an event in isolation to make a low sample space negligent, you sir are mathematically confused and/or ignorant if you believe it does.

Fortune? So you're saying the best team doesn't always win? Meaning you're making a firm judgement based on one noisy measurement? I'll strike engineer off your potential careers so too.

**Murfinator** · 05/09/2011, 4:22 PM

At what point did I say I was making a "firm judgment" as you put it or concluding anything? I posted some stats, asked if anybody else was concerned by this and the internet tough guy brigade started reeling out accusations that I was trying to make conclusive remarks from it, baffling reading comprehension really.

I posted a hypothesis based on evidence, all evidence points to the hypothesis being correct. Your only counter is the lack of relevant data which while valid is only valid as a counter to a conclusive statement which I never made, you seem to be trying to refute the suggestion of a hypothesis by accepting all data supports it but that there isn't enough of it and on those grounds and those grounds only trying to rubbish it? Fun stuff.

**mypost** · 05/09/2011, 4:30 PM

Originally Posted by Murfinator

This isn't Landsdowne road, its a new stadium that we seem to have not converted into a place with any sort of home advantage for ourselves. Thats the point.

It IS Lansdowne Road, just bigger, and with the (temporary) name of an insurance firm on it, a name that I refuse point blank to use. There's a lot more than 12 months of history in it.

**Dodge** · 05/09/2011, 5:06 PM

Not when talking about recent form though, wasn't that the point? John83's analysis aside...

**paul_oshea** · 05/09/2011, 5:14 PM

I don't see why everyone is getting on Murfs back here, he made a point that our form since we came back to Aviva has been poor really. Which is fair enough.

ANd for those who think its a go at Trap, he has been in charge longer than just the aviva

But the rugby team on a round robin adventure have been pretty poor too there, so at least this time its not just the "soccer"....