Anglo Billions

[osarusan]

Also, and apologies if it's off-topic, but I have a question on the 'haircuts' demanded by NAMA.

It seems to me that most banks expected NAMA to request discounts of 28% (or close to it) but NAMA looked for discounts of up to 50% from some banks, including Anglo. This was publicised at the time as a sign of how serious NAMA were about the task in front of them.

But as I understand it, the amount the banks needed was calculated (at least partly) on the understanding that they would be asked for a 28% 'haircut', so by asking for 50%, all that happens is that they need to be recapitalised again later, to make up the funds shortfall caused by the extra 20% that NAMA asked for.

So was NAMA asking for 50% just for show?

Or am I drastically reducing the complexity of the NAMA deals?

[Billsthoughts]

doc on rte at moment about it. not great tho a lot of the same old media talking heads.

[dahamsta]

TBH I think by making his health a factor in the debate here, you're just perpetuating the myth. Concentrate on the economics, they damn him to hell. Now I'm doing it though, so I won't comment any more on it.

Can I change the title to billions yet? I mean millions, seriously, for feck's sake like...

[Mr A]

Please do so!

And you've one more post for 11000 by the way, better make it a good one!

[dahamsta]

Fanny.

[Aberdonian Stu]

Ah I was going to recommend a sliding scale for the title over the next few days to Thousands, Hundreds, Guineas, Shillings, Farthings.

[Mr A]

Fanny.

Link, picture or reference or it didn't happen.

[Fr Damo]

Dahamsta, it's Minister Lenihan who's "rescued" the bank, and he's just not up to the job, hence his inclusion in the thread, his illness is keeping him in the job - sorry, but it cannot be discounted from the equation, if somebody performing as poorly as he has been was not sick he'd have been put out on his ear, however it shows his lack of integrity that he won't resign, he's just not up to the task of making and taking hard decisions. edit: Osarusan answered far better than I ever could have to the question posed.

Bennocelt, I've money tied up with AIB too and the only thing I know for sure is that they will come to the government to ask for support - this goes down to a number of seriously toxic loans given out, including a 150million loan to buy a stretch of coastline which changed jurisdiction - in a semi-legal sense - in Abkhazia. I have only the hard copy version of this in the Moscow News (newspaper) from 2008 where 2 Irish developers (one I'd never heard of and the Quinn East group) got a loan from AIB to go in with two preferred clients of A-1 Financial Corporation (they took 10% of the amount from Alfa Bank, part of A-1) and the whole deal blew up, pardon the pun, with the Russia-Georgia war, and rights to the land lost. I believe that AIB are in a quite okay position, despite the number of defaults on domestic mortgages they've had, however they will still need funding. One thing is for sure, they won't be let fail as they are economically strong and the scale of losses will not affect them as bad as Anglo or BOI.

With every % discount applied on the bad loans, X amount goes into that banks balance sheet as a write down and ultimatly a loss. The two are in intrinsically linked.

The fear is NAMA have reconginised that to write down the bad loans to a more realictic level would mean an even bigger bailout at or equity swap for the government. By fudging the decesion on land values/developments, NAMA and the Government have postponed this countries insolvency - that's all.

As an advocate of Brian Lenihan's intellect and his integrety 12 months ago, I admit I was wrong. Many of you were correct.

[Macy]

TBH I think by making his health a factor in the debate here, you're just perpetuating the myth. Concentrate on the economics, they damn him to hell. Now I'm doing it though, so I won't comment any more on it.

I believe it is an issue, and that it's inevitable that decent people go easy on people suffering from Cancer, whatever spin he and the opposition and media put on it. We need someone to take the long term view and we need the opposition and media to being after someone who made, at best, poor decisions.

I see Government bonds are up over 6% now, and there's a possibility us being the next Greece is happening. I'm not that up in the bond markets, but it looks bad to me - can any of the more educated in the bond markets expand or you too busy emptying your bank accounts? Might be the IMF/ECB's choice what to do with Anglo soon, even more so than now.

[Fr Damo]

Markets are guided by sentiment both on the up and way down - The cold hard facts however are becoming obvious to all, especially when we have articles in the FT saying technically we are broke. How long more will the governemnts gurarentee apease (foreign) depositors in the irish banks and more importantly lenders to the same inistitutions?

If only it was one bank who brought down the country (as per the Article last week)

[Lim till i die]

But as I understand it, the amount the banks needed was calculated (at least partly) on the understanding that they would be asked for a 28% 'haircut', so by asking for 50%, all that happens is that they need to be recapitalised again later, to make up the funds shortfall caused by the extra 20% that NAMA asked for.

So was NAMA asking for 50% just for show?

Or am I drastically reducing the complexity of the NAMA deals?

[Fr Damo]

NIB have gone to ECB for 4billon to tide them over (using the governments guaranatee) and not a word about it.

We have a picture of Callaly in a sports car, and the Irish team in the Indo,& a national debate on Joe Duffy about some village idiot dancing on Haugheys grave on youtube while reading from the constitution.

Sean O Rourke had the hack from the FT who writes the Lex column basically saying the Irish Governement have lost international credability - Noonan saying general election in March.

Ian Dempsey want's to start a petition to get Clown to give us a state of the nation address - does anyone give a ****?

Wie ist Screwed.

[Spudulika]

Jesus Fr Damo, I checked out the info - NIB are wobbling but I think it's down to their parent bank cutting back, as well as the mortgage market having problems.

This whole work for dole scheme was actually an FG effort and theirs was based on the current/old Russian model, but it's been perverted in the FF structure to serve a different purpose, namely intimidate those on the dole and cut back on outlay on support services. Is it a surprise that when they've been cutting back on caregivers, education assistants etc that now they come up with this?

Joe Duffy has no credibility (listening on Monday I think it was I wanted to reach through the radio and smack the man), the FT is one of the most bought and paid for outfits going (it's like basing your business on Standard and Poors), while the government haven't a clue of how to gain the respect of the people, then again, they don't care. If Noonan is right, next March there'll be a few bones thrown to the masses and FF will get back in with Labour as partners (the Greens will disappear and rightly so, they're self righteous, fake idiots who think that opening a nuclear waste processing and power plants in Ireland are the solution to our woes).

[dahamsta]

Gov.ie has taken a very short list of options for Anglo, and picked the worst by a country mile.

Could somebody make a hat for Brian and make him sit in the corner for a while?

[Mr A]

Won't a bank that only has deposits just lose money? Why not use that so called good bank to get lending to business flowing again?

This doesn't make any sense to me to be honest.

Edit: Unless it's a tactic- separate them, then nuke the bad one as without doing the former you can't burn the bondhonders without also burning the depositors?

[Mr A]

IrishEconomy.ie answers my question:

A quick reaction. That the new bank isn’t making lending is a good thing. The bank didn’t have the capacity to transform itself into a small business lender or the other proposals that the management were floating. It will presumably need less money to be capitalised as a pure deposit-funding bank.

Fair enough I guess.

[Spudulika]

Unbelievable and sickening, hearing Lenihan saying "the markets have remained open to Ireland.....we've had lenders lining up to lend.....we're oversubscribed with interested lenders." OF COURSE WE ARE YOU CRETIN!!!! Why wouldn't they when we're paying more interest than Greece, when we've become the moneymaker for the lowest end of the market. We're the laughing stock of the World at this stage, if the USA cannot help themselves and improve their economy by bailing out a stronger bank, we're completely csrewed! The government are a disgrace, a joke and we're going to bankrupt ourselves! The bond markets are going to nail us!

[juan]

I am proposing an ambitious takeover of Anglo for a euro and a €5 HMV voucher.

[Spudulika]

I am proposing an ambitious takeover of Anglo for a euro and a €5 HMV voucher.

I don't think they could afford the 6quid to give you control juan! I'm desperately looking for a link (I got a circular email that is a page capture from a website) regarding the cutbacks in Anglo, it's like something out of a fantasy novel.

[Fr Damo]

Ireland now 29th in a competitive survey dragged down 4 places by the state of the banking system. We were last of 139 countries, behind Greece and Iceland in banking catagory!

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0909...itiveness.html