Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

**Murfinator** · 13/09/2011, 11:58 AM

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

Our biggest problem going forward is the lack of a link between the wingers and the front 2. There's always a huge hole between CM and CF that it would be better if we had someone in there holding the ball up. Robbie can do that.

Yep, the wingers are typically having to rain in crosses which is a useless strategy without a targetman. We need them cutting inside and to reliably do that they need support in the centre to link with. As is all fullbacks when being faced with Duff or McGeady will be under instruction to lean inside and force them wide. They can't do any harm out there.

Trap seems aware of this and his solution in the last 2 games was having JOS and Ward push up to support their wingers but with such poor ball retention and the lack of pace in our centre backs we're very vulnerable to the counter attack doing this.

**Wolfie** · 21/09/2011, 12:31 PM

Just had a quick look at Andorra's home results in this group:

Andorra 0 - Russia 2
Andorra 0 - Macedonia 2
Andorra 0 - Slovakia 1
Andorra 0 - Armenia 3

Possibly Armenia result aside, there is nothing remotely comprehensive about any of the other results.

We've a track record of struggling in these sort of games and I just hope this game is approached without a semblance of complacency.

Obvious, but worth stating - we're not exactly well set up to demolish so called "weaker" teams with our creative brilliance.

I understand that many would argue that if you can't beat Andorra, you don't deserve to qualify. I just hope they are paid the respect that their home results in this group deserve.

**Sullivinho** · 21/09/2011, 2:01 PM

Early goal please. Can you imagine heading past the 70th minute with the score still at 0-0 and their bus pefecting it's parking manouveres in front of the goal? Ugh.

**CraftyToePoke** · 21/09/2011, 2:04 PM

An early goal, with a second before half time and a nice comfortable assured win.

**zero** · 21/09/2011, 2:18 PM

i am hopefully (bordering on confident) that duff and mcgeady will have enough about them to flummox the inferior fullbacks and create opportunities for whichever 2 lads we have up front.

a poor performance though regardless of the result will result in the usual media backlash, but it seems they're chomping at the bit to deliver just that in any case.

**Stuttgart88** · 21/09/2011, 2:25 PM

Originally Posted by Wolfie

Just had a quick look at Andorra's home results in this group:

Andorra 0 - Russia 2
Andorra 0 - Macedonia 2
Andorra 0 - Slovakia 1
Andorra 0 - Armenia 3

Possibly Armenia result aside, there is nothing remotely comprehensive about any of the other results.

We've a track record of struggling in these sort of games and I just hope this game is approached without a semblance of complacency.

Obvious, but worth stating - we're not exactly well set up to demolish so called "weaker" teams with our creative brilliance.

I understand that many would argue that if you can't beat Andorra, you don't deserve to qualify. I just hope they are paid the respect that their home results in this group deserve.

Well said. To qualify for E88 we only beat Luxembourg 2-1 at home. Nobody cared a year later.

To qualify for Euro 2008 Russia needed a win in Andorra. They were managed by Guus Hiddink. They won 1-0.

**ArdeeBhoy** · 21/09/2011, 4:20 PM

A win. By any means.

**Stuttgart88** · 21/09/2011, 5:34 PM

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

**geysir** · 21/09/2011, 5:56 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

That's the gut size of it.

I see the odds on us qualifying are closing in on the odds for not qualifying.
1/1 qualify 8/11 not qualify.
'Evens' are poor odds at this stage.

**AlaskaFox** · 21/09/2011, 6:10 PM

Call up Gary Doherty!

**Kingdom** · 21/09/2011, 7:33 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

I posted this about 2 weeks ago. I can't see how we'll finish in the top half of the seeds. I think UEFA said something different to who plays at home first though...

http://foot.ie/threads/63100-World-R...=1#post1530828

Originally Posted by kingdom

Just had a look there at the link...

6 Croatia* 33478
8 Portugal** 31910
9 Greece* 31825
10 Sweden 31126
12 Denmark** 30313
13 Serbia 29005
14 Czech Republic 28148
17 Turkey 27836
18 Switzerland 27595
19 Ireland 27268
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27118

...it doesn't require a huge leap of faith to say that these are the teams left to battle it out for the 2nd places.
Turkey only have to equal Belgiums result away to the Germans, at home and they're in. I think they'll do that.
Serbia, somehow thanks to the North going mad, should get group c. Unless Estonia win in Windsor (not impossible) and Serbia don't get a win from Italy or Slovenia (Estonia have the better on the head to head record).
Bosnia are sorted for D, they only need to beat Luxembourg.
Sweden should be ok for E, they need to beat Finland, then the Holland match becomes irrelevant as they've beaten Hungary on head to head.
Group G In my mind, will see the Swiss will roll the Montenegrins.
Which leaves the two groups that should decide who gets automatic qualifier. F & H.
F is a tight group. A toss-up between Greece and Croatia. They have to beat Croatia next game, or Croatia will top the group by beating Latvia in Split on the last day. I can see a draw game in Greece, and Greece finishing with a win against Georgia. This would see them having 16 points on the table.
Group H is the Portugal/Denmark/Norway group. I'd feel Denmark should have enough over Cyprus, but I can't see Portugal not getting what they need in Copenhagen. The head to heads mean that Norway need to hope Denmark don't beat either Cyprus or Portugal.

As a result of that I can see the second placed teams being:

Turkey
Ireland
Serbia
Bosnia
Sweden
Croatia (auto)
Switzerland
Denmark
Czech rep

Which, as DI's link shows, seedings-wise at present is:

10 Sweden 31126
12 Denmark 30313
13 Serbia 29005
14 Czech Republic 28148
17 Turkey 27836
18 Switzerland 27595
19 Ireland 27268
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27118

In predicting how the groups or results will turn out, you can try and see if the seedings will be affected. I find it hard to believe Switzerland will drop below us as they're going to have to win their next two games to get 2nd place anyway.

Turkey could very well drop points, and I've no doubt the Czech's will drip points also, perhaps against Lithuania also. I'm not really sure the seedings are going to make much of a difference this time round. I wouldn't be afraid of any team, but I'd be wary of Serbia, only because we seem to struggle against the strong Balkan teams in the recent past.
I'm well aware this could be all totally irrelevant if Slovakia do us a favour and we capitalise on the favour.

**Kingdom** · 21/09/2011, 7:37 PM

Woops... got this from the UEFA site...

Originally Posted by UEFA

The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches. The four ties are
determined by means of a draw. The four runners-up with the best position in the
UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph 1.2.2) are
seeded for the draw. If any of the teams in question have the same coefficient, the
criteria listed in paragraph 7.02 apply. The play-offs are played according to the
knockout system, with each team playing each opponent twice, in home and away
matches. The seeded teams play the return match at home. The teams which
score the greater aggregate of goals in the two matches qualify for the final
tournament. Otherwise, the provisions of paragraph 7.08 apply.

**geysir** · 21/09/2011, 8:59 PM

Like I said, Stutts' instinct was sound.

**BonnieShels** · 21/09/2011, 10:17 PM

So, it would be advantageous NOT to be seeded. Playing away from home is the way to be surely what with the bizarre existence of away goals in ET!

That's a assuming of course we believe that there are teams substantially better than us that we should prefer to get and think we should win.

**theworm2345** · 21/09/2011, 10:27 PM

Originally Posted by Stuttgart88

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

As I'm sure we are all aware, UEFA will make the rules up to, in whatever ways possible, allow the more "attractive" team an easier route to the finals. So it will depend on which teams would be second.

**French Toasht** · 22/09/2011, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by BonnieShels

So, it would be advantageous NOT to be seeded. Playing away from home is the way to be surely what with the bizarre existence of away goals in ET!

Really is that the case? So supposing we had equalised in extra time after the Gallas goal in Paris, we would have gone through automatically without the requirement for penalties? Seems unduly harsh.

**Stuttgart88** · 22/09/2011, 10:59 AM

Thanks Kingdom. I knew there was a post about it. I searched but couldn't find it.

**BonnieShels** · 22/09/2011, 11:12 AM

Seems to be the way alright. That's how it is in the CL. It's disgraceful in my view.

**geysir** · 22/09/2011, 12:36 PM

Conventional wisdom says playing away first is an advantage. I don't know how they got to that, so that now the seeded team usually plays away first..

I wonder what the stats are, where there are 2 legged ties between teams in an unseeded knockout competition,
does the team that plays at home for the return leg have an advantage?

**BonnieShels** · 22/09/2011, 1:30 PM

I can't see nowadays how it does.

In the old days with travel etc you would see that it was which is a reason we have the AG rule.

The only rule that holds true in soccer is that the best team always wins, most of the time.