Covid 19 - LOI Ramifications

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, that's true - I guess the point is just that even something which can generate excess mortality over a month or two is a big event, especially with everything we've had to do to limit it to where we are now. (And that's before covid side-effects for those who, say, do come out of hospital the right end)

I don't see vaccine certs being a goer tbh. Can they be forged? Do people without them have to stay in their own county? How do you police that if half the population can move around and the other half can't?

I don't mind impacting the anti-vaxxers, but I'm not sure it's practical. Plus - and Nesta may know more - it may be too early yet to tell how effective the vaccine at large will actually be

[John83]

I don't think it's really established yet whether the vaccinated can be carriers. If they can't, that discussion is worth having, but if they can't, we'll need to have vaccinations well underway before there'll be any real relief from restrictions.

And then there's the fears around the vaccine's efficacy against mutations. I read that the variant detected in South Africa has a lot of mutations relating to the spike protein, so they're a bit worried about that one. Hopefully that's already old news and it's not a problem; I try not to read as much about this as I used, because it's just stressful. But yeah, we need time to figure out what the vaccinations really buy us. The degree to which this was left run riot worldwide is to blame, as it happens. The more infected people there are, the more likely a mutation is to arise. If we'd all pursued a zero-covid strategy, there wouldn't be a fraction of the reservations about the effectiveness of the vaccinations. But no, we had to have gastropubs open in July.

[Nesta99]

I don't think it's really established yet whether the vaccinated can be carriers. If they can't, that discussion is worth having, but if they can't, we'll need to have vaccinations well underway before there'll be any real relief from restrictions.

And then there's the fears around the vaccine's efficacy against mutations. I read that the variant detected in South Africa has a lot of mutations relating to the spike protein, so they're a bit worried about that one. Hopefully that's already old news and it's not a problem; I try not to read as much about this as I used, because it's just stressful. But yeah, we need time to figure out what the vaccinations really buy us. The degree to which this was left run riot worldwide is to blame, as it happens. The more infected people there are, the more likely a mutation is to arise. If we'd all pursued a zero-covid strategy, there wouldn't be a fraction of the reservations about the effectiveness of the vaccinations. But no, we had to have gastropubs open in July.

I know what yer getting at there but some of my logic(?) - People can be carriers (vectors) vaccinated or not, surface of the skin, nasal passage etc. It may not infect that person for whatever reason but that person can spread to others, main risk to non vaccinated and vaccinated but immunocompromised. By the nature of vaccination, preprogramming an appropriate immune response to the viral infection people do become 'infected' but the virus is fought off. I'd be pretty sure some people will still even have mild symptoms and be infectious hence the herd immunity concept with any vaccination programme. If its being suggested that the virus remains dormant in the body post infection (even with vaccination) and can flare up? Its an interesting question and I havent heard anything about it but Herpes Zoster as a virus does exactly that though only infectious during a flare up. It's inevitable that this vaccination will become a seasonal thing and there will be a whole raging 'debate' on compulsory vaccination. Enough people dont take up vaccination in the future and we could be in a sort of tailspin again and bricking it about variants (less infection rates, less variants and vaccines keep infection rates down etc). Its certainly a money spinner for the pharma companies so the conspiracies' will fly and fuel antivaxing meaning govt efforts to force the issue will cause the usuals to come crawling out shouting!

Mutations are a concern but the base vaccine will be tweaked, its all about creating time and capacity to adapt. With multiple different vaccines now on the go there may be additional cover against (resistant) variants. Key will be timely roll out of vaccines to ALL people across the globe - big task but will happen as the financial damage done already would cover the cost many times over never mind doing it all again with a variant (or new virus....). Time estimates of the roll out of vaccines here will all be kept low to keep expectations low which is sensible. But there will be a pretty sudden ramp up of vaccination sooner than later as systems bed in and production capacity is increased and with more vaccine options being licensed. Wont be in time for a full return of crowds by season start, but get over this current hump scale plays back in to our court with a small country and population to vaccinate and then protect from possible future external issues with mutations of the virus. It will be a very different experience for the UK over the next 6-12 months again wit scale and as this surge will be longer, more widespread in the community and inhibit vaccination rollout and there is the strange situation where people are refusing the vaccines available and waiting for the Oxford/Astrazeneca British option which is actually less effective than others but homegrown so must be the best.

[sbgawa]

I know what yer getting at there but some of my logic(?) - People can be carriers (vectors) vaccinated or not, surface of the skin, nasal passage etc. It may not infect that person for whatever reason but that person can spread to others, main risk to non vaccinated and vaccinated but immunocompromised. By the nature of vaccination, preprogramming an appropriate immune response to the viral infection people do become 'infected' but the virus is fought off. I'd be pretty sure some people will still even have mild symptoms and be infectious hence the herd immunity concept with any vaccination programme. If its being suggested that the virus remains dormant in the body post infection (even with vaccination) and can flare up? Its an interesting question and I havent heard anything about it but Herpes Zoster as a virus does exactly that though only infectious during a flare up. It's inevitable that this vaccination will become a seasonal thing and there will be a whole raging 'debate' on compulsory vaccination. Enough people dont take up vaccination in the future and we could be in a sort of tailspin again and bricking it about variants (less infection rates, less variants and vaccines keep infection rates down etc). Its certainly a money spinner for the pharma companies so the conspiracies' will fly and fuel antivaxing meaning govt efforts to force the issue will cause the usuals to come crawling out shouting!

Mutations are a concern but the base vaccine will be tweaked, its all about creating time and capacity to adapt. With multiple different vaccines now on the go there may be additional cover against (resistant) variants. Key will be timely roll out of vaccines to ALL people across the globe - big task but will happen as the financial damage done already would cover the cost many times over never mind doing it all again with a variant (or new virus....). Time estimates of the roll out of vaccines here will all be kept low to keep expectations low which is sensible. But there will be a pretty sudden ramp up of vaccination sooner than later as systems bed in and production capacity is increased and with more vaccine options being licensed. Wont be in time for a full return of crowds by season start, but get over this current hump scale plays back in to our court with a small country and population to vaccinate and then protect from possible future external issues with mutations of the virus. It will be a very different experience for the UK over the next 6-12 months again wit scale and as this surge will be longer, more widespread in the community and inhibit vaccination rollout and there is the strange situation where people are refusing the vaccines available and waiting for the Oxford/Astrazeneca British option which is actually less effective than others but homegrown so must be the best.

The oxford vaccine is the Brexiteers vacine, the pesky europeans can take that Phizser one
How on earth did the Brits ever rule half the world

[Nesta99]

The oxford vaccine is the Brexiteers vacine, the pesky europeans can take that Phizser one
How on earth did the Brits ever rule half the world

Astrazeneca i'm pretty sure is at least part Swedish too but the Biontech bit of the Pfizer effort is German and Pfizer sounds German (well it was founded by a couple of Germans in the US) which would be at least grand with the Royal family! Not so with a lot of others especially among the elderly (which I can kinda understand) but all things considered I doubt British branding would have been at the forefront of Pfizer thinking! Call it the 'SCG vaccine' after the royals and there'd nothing of the pesky German sounding about it and it'd be grand all round ha! Whatever about ruling half the world its less of a surprise that they lost it again...

[pineapple stu]

Intercounty GAA suspended while Level 5 restrictions in place.

At the moment, the LoI is exempt from restrictions - "It’s important for the football community that our national league commences", the Minister for State, Jack Chambers, has tweeted.

But if we're honest, in pandemic times, it's irrelevant for the community at large if the national league commences. You wonder if we'll hear more about this in the coming days and weeks.

[D24Saint]

Intercounty GAA suspended while Level 5 restrictions in place.

At the moment, the LoI is exempt from restrictions - "It’s important for the football community that our national league commences", the Minister for State, Jack Chambers, has tweeted.

But if we're honest, in pandemic times, it's irrelevant for the community at large if the national league commences. You wonder if we'll hear more about this in the coming days and weeks.

I can’t see the GAA taking this lying down, I expect to hear more on this.

[Mr A]

I can’t see the GAA taking this lying down, I except to hear more on this.

Hilarious as this is- the spotlight on the league is now going to be incredibly intense. Any slip-ups however minor will be pounced on. In general the league handled things very well last year so we're well able but there is inevitable blow back coming here.

[D24Saint]

Hilarious as this is- the spotlight on the league is now going to be incredibly intense. Any slip-ups however minor will be pounced on. In general the league handled things very well last year so we're well able but there is inevitable blow back coming here.

Even Claire Byrne was grilling the minister this morning on whether the LOI was really professional.

[boynemunich]

I can’t see the GAA taking this lying down, I expect to hear more on this.

They've made a statement about it via their covid advisory board so I think they will accept it for now. There was a few outbreaks due to them last year and it would be a terrible look to go against government advice given the severity of this wave. The GAA's unique selling point is that it's amateur so they have to accept those terms now whether it suits them or not.

[pineapple stu]

Level 5 now confirmed as in place until after Easter, which is 4th April this year, so that overlaps with the start of the new season.

I don't really see how you can treat the LoI and the GAA differently to be honest. Is the fact that LoI players get paid (but far from all are full-time of course) really enough to differentiate it?

[sbgawa]

Level 5 now confirmed as in place until after Easter, which is 4th April this year, so that overlaps with the start of the new season.

I don't really see how you can treat the LoI and the GAA differently to be honest. Is the fact that LoI players get paid (but far from all are full-time of course) really enough to differentiate it?

The level of risk with the GAA is far higher.
Far more teams double up for hurling and football, far bigger panals , far bigger number of support staff + the /GAA showed they were not taking it seriously the last time around.

LOI is part of an international professional structure that is playing in other countries.
I'm frankly amazed we have been given priority in this GAA dominated country, it might be thanks to our egg chasing friends and how they couldnt shut down one group of pros and not both

[jbyrne]

Even Claire Byrne was grilling the minister this morning on whether the LOI was really professional.

to be fair her point was more that they are not in a professional type bubble that full time professionals such as the rugby teams would be in.
her point was that they are often part timers and as a result would be more likely also be out mingling with the general public

[passinginterest]

I think there's big enough differences to justify the distinction. The GAA is amateur for a start, ok league of Ireland is mainly semi-pro and there's a few amateur teams in the first division but even they're likely paying expenses at least. Pre season inter county training panels will be bringing around 40 players in to train, a LOI squad is probably around 25 so a lot more manageable. We've already seen two inter county teams caught training on the sly and that was a really bad look for the GAA, on top of the club final celebrations that went on last year.

Football is an international sport and the national league feeds into Europe etc. the knock on effects of a delay are much more significant with European money and contracted professionals involved. I'm glad the FAI has been successful in convincing the Government that this is elite professional sport and should continue. If there's any major outbreaks it'll be shut down quickly, but the clubs showed a good ability to keep things under control last season and hopefully that continues. The celebrations in Dundalk after the FAI cup final is the only real Covid breach that I can think of in association with LOI and that didn't seem to get a lot of media coverage.

The GAA don't seem to be putting up too much of a fight either. If they start to make a fuss it might put pressure on the FAI, but for now it looks unlikely. There's plenty of other elite level training still continuing with our Olympic athletes, inter provincial and international rugby teams etc.

[pineapple stu]

The level of risk with the GAA is far higher.
Far more teams double up for hurling and football, far bigger panals , far bigger number of support staff + the /GAA showed they were not taking it seriously the last time around.

I think given how quickly this thing spreads, a panel of 30 players is no real difference to a panel of 22 players to be honest. I don't think the "international professional structure played in other countries" line is of any relevance either. Elite sport brings people in close proximity to each other, be it rugby, football or GAA. I can understand the argument for distinguishing between elite level, underage level, and casual/recreation level, but I don't think you can reasonably treat the sports differently within the same level.

(I also don't see any relevance in passinginterest's comments about the GAA being amateur and the LoI being semi-pro/pro)

[Yossarian]

I think the fact the LoI is professional/semi professional is a major reason it is seen as elite and the minister of sport said as much this morning. If they class professional football in this country as non elite then realistically they’d have to class all professional sport here as non elite. As an amateur sport the GAA can’t really influence what their members do outside of the sport whereas a LoI team who is paying someone’s wages can.
Whether there should be any sport at all going on at the moment is another question altogether.

[Nesta99]

Level 5 now confirmed as in place until after Easter, which is 4th April this year, so that overlaps with the start of the new season.

I don't really see how you can treat the LoI and the GAA differently to be honest. Is the fact that LoI players get paid (but far from all are full-time of course) really enough to differentiate it?

High profile breaches of regulations have cost the GAA dearly, im not making an assumption here either. Having to publically ban 2 intercountry managers, the highest level in the game, for holding group training sessions, another 4 suspected breaches and probably more that havent been flagged, having unregulated, illegal training, that lacked testing and with untraceabllity of groups that are considered highly integrated in to the general community, in the event of a cluster was a serious cluster f*ck up. It is a known ethic that GAA club and country squads train outside their own calander that is set to enhance player welfare issues in the main. The Cork hurling team where supporters gathered post county final was flagged in comparison to SRFCs superb conduct after long wait for a title. All mitigation factored in though there is no shortage of spin to justify the decision and distinctions being made. That GAA is so highly embedded in every community, if there is a tendency to bend the rules, it is just to big a risk at the moment. I know my local GAA club has met up and had off the grid training in an electoral area were virus cases were in the top 5 nationally....

What I am finding interesting about this spat is the GAA v LoI angle. Apart from LoI being a smaller 'risk' to viral spread, and being a smaller organisation in general, direct comparison trying to be made and among GAA circles that LoI is public enemy No 1 for them - a real back handed compliment when the sport that has surged in popularity and participation for over a decade is Rugby. Outside of the provincial set-up its almost entirely amateur, quite similar to the GAA yet not a peep!?

It's no secret that I hold a certain contempt of the GAA especially Louth GAA, the issues are with the administrators of the game more than the sports themselves or even the supporters. Not particularly different from my thinking on the FAI!! But I do enjoy when pompous arrogance ends up stunned and confused when treated by the same rules as everyone else and efforts to take down others in the fall dont work. Listening to members of AGS whinging about the loss of overtime and stipends for Croke Park duty cheered me up one day, petty?? Only when you know that the payments vary for certain individuals!

[Dalymountrower]

I think the fact the LoI is professional/semi professional is a major reason it is seen as elite and the minister of sport said as much this morning. If they class professional football in this country as non elite then realistically they’d have to class all professional sport here as non elite. As an amateur sport the GAA can’t really influence what their members do outside of the sport whereas a LoI team who is paying someone’s wages can.
Whether there should be any sport at all going on at the moment is another question altogether.

Can the FAI please copy and paste the above as their press release. Absolutely on the button.

[EalingGreen]

Dunno if it's relevant, but the IL Premier Division has been allowed to continue in NI (though not the Championship), also the Womens' Football Premiership, those two being classified as "Elite Sport", along with Ulster Rugby.

While GAA in NI is suspended too, in line with ROI.
https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/sport/...ended-19675426

[pineapple stu]

High profile breaches of regulations have cost the GAA dearly, im not making an assumption here either.

That's a fair point, but is retrospective action really the best course of action for a pandemic situation? If we're trying to reduce contacts, then even elite sport seems unnecessary. I know there's jobs and even businesses at stake of course, but you can say that for lots of other areas that are shut.