Covid-19

[backstothewall]

A friend of mine's mum died of it this morning.

She wasn't terrible old, but suffered from pretty severe CPOD. Pretty heavy smoker in years gone by apparently, but for all that it wasn't her time yet.

She had moved in with my friend and they had been isolating since this began, but somehow it got her.

I only found out that she had it last night so it's all been a bit of a shock. Obviously all the usual stuff of wake and funeral are out of the question so I've no idea what I'm supposed to do now. Every human instinct wants you to go the house to pay respects and offer a sympathetic face, but that exactly what the virus wants us to do.

Powerless to offer even that most modest way. Utterly powerless.

[John83]

Every human instinct wants you to go the house to pay respects and offer a sympathetic face, but that exactly what the virus wants us to do.

I'm sure your friend will be inundated with texts and calls over the next few days. Make sure to check in with them next week though. I expect it is much tougher for some people when things get quieter again.

[D24Saint]

Was reading through the new guidelines for pubs to open and reckon they aren’t workable or viable. I’d like the opinion of someone from the bar trade on here. I’d say they won’t allow half to even attempt to reopen and those they do won’t be for long as I can’t see how they can make a profit.

[geysir]

I came across an article from mid March reporting that the deCode Gentic institution in Iceland had discovered 40 different variants of the virus. Allowing for my knowledge in these matters is virus sized, of interest (to me) was that each variant left a fingerprint of sorts allowing easier traceability.

One of the variations was found on 7 people who attended a football match in England (Liverpool v Atletico), the Anfield mutation - perhaps complete with a scouse accent?

Kári Stefánsson, director of DeCode Genetics, said, “We can see how viruses mutate. We have found 40 island-specific virus mutations … We found someone who had a mixture of viruses.”

Stefánsson added, “Some came from Austria. There is another type from people who were infected in Italy. And there is a third type of virus found in people infected in England. Seven people had attended a football match in England.”

[samhaydenjr]

Hi everyone, I just thought I'd drop in and revisit my question about why the number of cases is so high in Ireland (still per capita higher than the US, the UK and Italy, and around the same as Spain), although I am hugely relieved to see new cases finally dropping towards a manageable figure. Thanks for all your thoughts on the various factors, but having looked at the numbers in more detail, I would have to point at the "Delay Phase" from March 12-27, when businesses were allowed to stay open and the number of cases went from 70 to 2121 before the "Stay at Home" phase was implemented, which meant that the high figures Ireland has seen became locked in. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...%80%9327_March

This is how three similarly-sized countries dealt with it:
New Zealand's equivalent of the "Delay phase" lasted two days and they were locked down from when they had 205 confirmed or probable cases. They have been in single-figures for new cases for a couple of weeks now and their total case load stands at 1147
In Croatia, by March 19th, all non-essential services had been shut down - their caseload at this point was 105 - they now have 2200 cases total and are already opening up.
Slovenia, which shares a land border with Italy, had gone into lockdown mode by March 16th when it had 253 cases. It now has 1460.

I believe now that this delay in Ireland was absolutely instrumental in leading to infection rates that are far higher than were necessary and that the rationale behind it by the government, along with possibly the attitude of the general population when it comes to taking threats like this seriously, should be the focus of serious scrutiny in the very near future. Ireland needs to be better prepared, logistically and in attitude, to react to a potential second wave and future pandemics because, unfortunately, both are likely to occur.

[pineapple stu]

I think you should be referring to the "reported cases" in the US and UK in particular in fairness.

Not to say that your other points doesn't have merit, and obviously the nature of things is that pretty much every reported figure is wrong to some extent, but I don't think comparing reported figures here against the US/UK is really comparing like with like.

[Eminence Grise]

Partly it’s testing: we’re testing more per capita than a lot of other countries. Three factors may have contributed to our numbers: not cancelling flights from Italy for the rugby, Cheltenham and clusters in nursing homes. Four, when you realise we have the second lowest number of hospital beds per 100,000 of population in the EU (I read a few years ago that we had fewer hospital beds for a then population of c4.6m than in the late ‘80s, with a population of c3.5m).

We won’t know for maybe a year the full effect. But: as PS said you need to look at reported numbers of infections/deaths versus actual, and what is signed on a death cert. The US is a grim joke, the UK is perilously close to disinformation as policy. Mrs Grise (still front line, but so far dodging bullets, though there was one hairy moment…) read somewhere yesterday day the UK’s excess mortality for this period is c.52,000 more than the average of the last five years; their reported deaths from Covid-19 yesterday was c.32,000. That 20k won’t all be Covid-19 – it’s a worry that people with other conditions are not going for treatment, or may not be getting it – but a high percentage will be.



This is from RTE last week on our excess mortality. Might help add context to your figures. Your point on NZ is good, but remember: they don't share a porous land border with a country that doesn't know its ar5e from its elbow and had an ideological (idiotological?) attachment to herd immunity. The others you mention seemed to have acted very decisively and hopefully will reap the benefits long term.

[passinginterest]

It's very hard to know what's good or bad, right or wrong in so many of these cases. There's so many inconsistencies in the data too, especially when it comes to categorising Covid deaths. NZ stopped it getting in but can they keep it out if there's still no vaccine or cure? How long can they stay locked down enough? Sweden may see a 'benefit' in terms of not being as badly impacted by a second wave, as might other countries who delayed lockdown. In many ways we seem to have managed it well, we had extremely limited capacity in ICU and we reached close to it but didn't get overwhelmed, the community spread in residential care facilities has been the single biggest mistake. Unfortunately, we're probably looking at two years down the line before we can see who got it right or wrong, in terms of mortality and spread and even longer to see the long term impacts on economies, employment, mental health and secondary mortality due to delays in treatment of other illnesses. It's a strange world we're living in. I terms of ongoing management mass testing and a 24 hour turn around appears to be key, with contact tracing within 72 hours.

One of the pluses that might hopefully emerge is much more trust and flexibility from office based employers in terms of working from home and alternative working options. Most places seem to have adapted much better than they ever would have anticipated.

[Mr A]

I can see the logic in delaying lockdown as long as possible- especially because as it goes on you can see it starting to slip. It's noticeable there are more groups around, especially younger folks (no doubt the leaving cert cancellation played a part here). Overall compliance has been really good but every time I do the shopping I see more evidence it's not being taken as seriously as it was at the start.

[tetsujin1979]

i'm a bit worried about that, when the restrictions are lifted, it'll be like a dam bursting. Where I live, it's been more or less adhered to, but I still see more people on the street some days.
If they're given an inch, will people take a mile?

[NeverFeltBetter]

It's slipped, and it's still slipping. I think that's one of the reasons the government was keen to get that roadmap out, to stay on top of it and basically endorse a loosening of restrictions before people just stop adhering to them.

When the 2k limit was expanded to 5k it just so happened my workplace fell within my circle, so I walked out one afternoon to have a check of the building, going down the Royal Canal into the city centre. I shouldn't have been surprised really, but I was astonished by the amount of people out, especially down near the Dorset Street area. The canal path was actually clogged at points, loads of groups of people drinking, kids swimming in the canal.

Then comparatively me and the GF walked to the Phoenix Park one evening, and I was fairly apprehensive about that, but the place was deserted. Helps that they've barred some entrances of course, but you could have walked for a half-hour in parts and not seen another person. So I guess it all depends? Time of day certainly a factor.

[pineapple stu]

One thing which has started gaining popularity recently is the idea that this may have struck months before we thought it did - Nov/Dec for example. Hearing stories now of people who came down with a really bad dose over the winter and are sure they had coronavirus.

But if that were the case, surely we'd have seen it in terms if ICU spikes, etc? Instead, the modelling from the first known case seems to have come true - exponential increase, followed by gradual reduction on full lock-down.

Anyone more knowledgeable than me able to give any info on that - are people imagining things from earlier? Or is our understanding of the disease based on a March arrival date fundamentally wrong in some way?

[John83]

I think that's all just baseless speculation, pineapple. Given how infectious it is, if it were here without any distancing measures, we're have been flattened by it. There are all sorts of wild rumours floating around, and that's just one more.

[tetsujin1979]

At the time, doctors didn't know what to search for, so any cases from that time were probably misdiagnosed, and the patient told to rest. A pneumonia case in France in December was recently retested and confirmed as coronavirus - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

[pineapple stu]

I think that's all just baseless speculation, pineapple. Given how infectious it is, if it were here without any distancing measures, we're have been flattened by it. There are all sorts of wild rumours floating around, and that's just one more.

At the time, doctors didn't know what to search for, so any cases from that time were probably misdiagnosed, and the patient told to rest. A pneumonia case in France in December was recently retested and confirmed as coronavirus - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554

But the question then is how to reconcile these two posts?

If coronavirus arrived in France in December and is as infectious as everyone says it is, why did France's curve take off in a perfectly normal way in March? OK, doctors didn't know what to test for - but why wasn't there a spike in ICU admissions or deaths? The RIP analysis, for example, only shows a spike in April, which correlates with the data we currently have - i.e. it arrived here in March and took off in April.

I can't square these two posts off.

[ArFella]

My wife and I came down with an atrocious 'flus' at Christmas (my wife was hospitalized due it exacerbating her asthma), our families are convinced it was Covid but I'm a bit more skeptical because as John83 said surely the country would be in a much worse state than we are currently, but it's probably impossible to know as it would all be based on anecdotal evidence.

[passinginterest]

Yeah, I remember that flu around Christmas, my wife had a brutal dose, couldn't even get out of bed on new years eve, was close enough to bringing her to A&E, and there was a spike in hospital flu admissions, but I'm fairly sure it was confirmed at the time that it was a know strain of flu, it just happened that it wasn't one of the strains covered by the seasonal vaccine. There may have been a few cases, but as the trends confirm the spike in community transmissions only really started in March.

[elatedscum]

i got flu around christmas time. but then i also got sick in february, everyone in my apartment did - and it had all the symptoms of covid-19. the tightness in the chest and difficulty breathing was what i found different from anything else. but it was about 1 week (or 2) before there was a confirmed case in ireland. i'd say there's over 50% chance it was covid-19.

[elatedscum]

i got flu around christmas time. but then i also got sick in february, everyone in my apartment did - and it had all the symptoms of covid-19. the tightness in the chest and difficulty breathing was what i found different from anything else. but it was about 1 week (or 2) before there was a confirmed case in ireland. i'd say there's over 50% chance it was covid-19.

[John83]

But the question then is how to reconcile these two posts?

If coronavirus arrived in France in December and is as infectious as everyone says it is, why did France's curve take off in a perfectly normal way in March? OK, doctors didn't know what to test for - but why wasn't there a spike in ICU admissions or deaths? The RIP analysis, for example, only shows a spike in April, which correlates with the data we currently have - i.e. it arrived here in March and took off in April.

I can't square these two posts off.

I think the most likely explanation is a false positive test.