Covid-19

**geysir** · 29/03/2020, 10:06 PM

I do take some consolation (or hope) that Fine gael will be ousted just like Churchill was, post WW2

Here in Iceland it's a lightish lockdown, not the full martial law, eg. tourists are allowed in - no restrictions but natives returning home are expected to self isolate for 2 weeks, which apparantly they do.

One thing that's different here (of some interest) is that there are two testing facilities, the regular hospital medical centre facility who test people of some evident concern, the other is deCode Genetics, a genetic institute who will test anybody and everybody according to their daily capacity.
In the last 3 days,
medical facility tests 26th March 81 confirmed from 392 tests 27th March 66 / 504 28th March 54/359
deCode genetics tests 26th March 6 confirmed from 606 tests , 27th march 3 /518 28th March 2/490.

What that goes to show is that outside the people of concern, very few people in the general population are testing positive, even allowing for false negatives, that isolation methods and taking personal responsibility do slow down the spread of the virulance significantly and the burden on medical resources.

**BonnieShels** · 29/03/2020, 10:58 PM

Misplaced hope.

It's a good thing that there's not a rogue nation based in Akureyri following idiotic plans from the mainland, putting the whole island at risk.

**backstothewall** · 29/03/2020, 11:37 PM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

What did he do well? Read a script and is doing what the hse tell him to do - its hardly rocket science to be fair.

Simon Harris - a liability during the general election and had to be hid from general view is now heralded as modern day Saint. I don't get it at all.

Harris looks like he's a work experience kid who's wearing his dad's suit.

But when you look into Varadkar's eyes you don't see the panic which is etched on Johnson's soul.

It's a low bar but for now that's enough.

**NeverFeltBetter** · 30/03/2020, 8:12 AM

I think that kind of quality is under-estimated by some people. I have had to deal with people in my workplace whose reaction to all this has, in my opinion, literally bordered on the criminal: spreading misinformation, endorsing panic buying, and launching verbal attacks on anyone who says otherwise. Varadkar's speech on that Sunday actually did help the situation. Panic is infectious, but to a degree so is calm. When the leader of the country, caretaker or no, adopts a posture of "It's bad, but we'll get through it if we work together" without bombastic delivery or flubs, a little bit of the air is let out of the balloon. As much as a dislike Varadkar, and Harris, there are other party leaders I'm not sure I'd trust to share that quality in a time of crisis.

**joey B** · 30/03/2020, 8:41 AM

Social media is unbearable,we've ran out of tests in a few places and the reaction is incredible like these people aren't doing their very best in this,we're testing more per capita than South Korea but it won't please the baying masses. I understand people are worried but everyday I'm glad I live in Ireland and not in some other places.......

**Real ale Madrid** · 30/03/2020, 8:44 AM

Originally Posted by backstothewall

Harris looks like he's a work experience kid who's wearing his dad's suit.

But when you look into Varadkar's eyes you don't see the panic which is etched on Johnson's soul.

It's a low bar but for now that's enough.

I was more arguing against the fact that he is doing "extremely well" as you put it earlier in the thread. I don't want to be criticizing him for no reason either. He and they are basically doing what they are told and looking calm which as you and others say is all that is required for now. The financial packages look ok although I haven't looked at them in any real detail. I'd like them to put a 3 month moratorium on mortgage payments for everyone. Its the least the feicin banks owe the country.

**D24Saint** · 30/03/2020, 9:51 AM

Originally Posted by joey B

Social media is unbearable,we've ran out of tests in a few places and the reaction is incredible like these people aren't doing their very best in this,we're testing more per capita than South Korea but it won't please the baying masses. I understand people are worried but everyday I'm glad I live in Ireland and not in some other places.......

It�s times like this that make me glad I quit social media, it barely tolerable in the best of times.

**dahamsta** · 30/03/2020, 10:48 AM

I agree that Varadker is doing very well. Some people don't seem to grasp yet the scale of this crisis, the length of time we're going to be isolated for, the ramifications that crop up minute-by-minute, the short, medium and long-term consequences that are constantly presenting themselves. While we need to concentrate on the here and now, we also have to be conscious of the fact that the economy of the entire planet is in freefall, and every change made now has the potential of a butterfly effect. Varadker isn't just standing in front of the nation reading from a script, he's managing the country and he appears to be doing as good a job as can be expected. We won't actually know for a good while whether his actions, and those of the people surrounding him, will be successful, but I think he's inspiring confidence and hope, and I think we need that right now.

**Eminence Grise** · 30/03/2020, 11:38 AM

I’m teaching from home for the last few weeks, and, coincidentally, my students have been delving into crisis communications management. Varadkar and Co have been a textbook case on how to do it well. Taking control of the narrative, dealing in the facts as known, reassuring, escalating the stages in a way that creates societal buy-in to extreme limitation on liberties… so far, so perfect.

I don’t understand criticism that they’re only doing what experts are telling them – would people prefer a Bolsonaro, Trump or the Belarusian leader who says vodka and saunas will cure it? Or the Malthusian enthusiasm of the Tory party? I’ve no torch to carry for FG, but Varadkar and Harris have stepped up to the plate and done a far better job than I would ever have credited them with the ability to do.

(Or maybe interest is a better word than ability - practically every government I can recall since the early 80s has been nothing more than a care-taker government, doing the bare minimum to maintain the status quo and avoiding anything that would threaten their re-election chances. It goes to show that there are politicians with potential - the tragedy is that it takes a crisis for them to reach for it.)

**Real ale Madrid** · 30/03/2020, 11:39 AM

Originally Posted by dahamsta

I agree that Varadker is doing very well. Some people don't seem to grasp yet the scale of this crisis, the length of time we're going to be isolated for, the ramifications that crop up minute-by-minute, the short, medium and long-term consequences that are constantly presenting themselves. While we need to concentrate on the here and now, we also have to be conscious of the fact that the economy of the entire planet is in freefall, and every change made now has the potential of a butterfly effect. Varadker isn't just standing in front of the nation reading from a script, he's managing the country and he appears to be doing as good a job as can be expected. We won't actually know for a good while whether his actions, and those of the people surrounding him, will be successful, but I think he's inspiring confidence and hope, and I think we need that right now.

You could well be right.

I just find it hard to swallow the notion that FG did a terrible job of running the country up until the start of this crisis and have suddenly become amazingly competent at managing all the consequences of this that has been thrown at them at this unprecedented time. Both things can't be true imo. If they are so good now why haven't they done a better job up to now? Again I don't want to be critical for the sake of it but the transformation in the eyes of the public (for example - red C poll over the weekend +13pts for FG) is difficult to comprehend. Maybe the low bar to our neighbors either side of us is contributing.

**Real ale Madrid** · 30/03/2020, 11:43 AM

Originally Posted by Eminence Grise

I’m teaching from home for the last few weeks, and, coincidentally, my students have been delving into crisis communications management. Varadkar and Co have been a textbook case on how to do it well. Taking control of the narrative, dealing in the facts as known, reassuring, escalating the stages in a way that creates societal buy-in to extreme limitation on liberties… so far, so perfect.

I don’t understand criticism that they’re only doing what experts are telling them – would people prefer a Bolsonaro, Trump or the Belarusian leader who says vodka and saunas will cure it? Or the Malthusian enthusiasm of the Tory party? I’ve no torch to carry for FG, but Varadkar and Harris have stepped up to the plate and done a far better job than I would ever have credited them with the ability to do.

(Or maybe interest is a better word than ability - practically every government I can recall since the early 80s has been nothing more than a care-taker government, doing the bare minimum to maintain the status quo and avoiding anything that would threaten their re-election chances. It goes to show that there are politicians with potential - the tragedy is that it takes a crisis for them to reach for it.)

Its not a criticism (from me anyway) , I'm just reacting to the notion that they are doing "extremely well". They are doing fine for me. Maybe we are just excellent at crisis management and crap and everything else!

**Eminence Grise** · 30/03/2020, 12:39 PM

I hadn't realised you'd posted your previous comment until now, RAM, so there was no finger-pointing. It was something I've had repeated to me in conversations or seen online in less reasonable spots than this.

**dahamsta** · 30/03/2020, 2:34 PM

Originally Posted by Real ale Madrid

I just find it hard to swallow the notion that FG did a terrible job of running the country up until the start of this crisis and have suddenly become amazingly competent at managing all the consequences of this that has been thrown at them at this unprecedented time. Both things can't be true imo.

I think they can. I'm terrible at marketing, but I'm great at pitching and closing. I have a excellent wide-scale knowledge about the web and the net, but I have very few focused skills (jack of all trades, master of none). And most relevant, I'm awful at time management, but if you put me in a crisis, I'll come up with ideas and fixes very quickly. Maybe Varadker and/or FG are just good in a crisis.

I don't think it's fair to say he / they've done a terrible job of running the country either. The state of the health service is still appalling, and their use of the money message is an abhorrent abuse of power, but they've done good too: I very much appreciate things like free healthcare for kids, and I really can't complain about where I am financially, I'm paying my mortgage and I'm not uncomfortable. I'd like a better pension and healthcare, but it could be worse.

Don't get me wrong, I voted SF, and will again if it comes to it. And I'm unlikely to vote FG again if it comes to it, but that's more down to the incompetence of my local representatives than anything else. However he has inspired more confidence in his abilities, and I think they deserve credit for their work so far.

So far. There's a long way to go yet.

**John83** · 30/03/2020, 3:32 PM

Originally Posted by dahamsta

...their use of the money message is an abhorrent abuse of power...

I don't recognise the term "money message". Have I missed something, or could you expand a little please?

**geysir** · 30/03/2020, 10:53 PM

Originally Posted by John83

I don't recognise the term "money message". Have I missed something, or could you expand a little please?

It means even though the feckers have been voted out in an honest election, litterly thrown out onto what passses for a scrapheap in D4, they are still in government and can exercise their "god" given right to block bills that they do not like from anybody else in the Dail using the argument "money message", regardless if if the bill involved any spending from the state coffers. But probably Dahamsta can explain it more eloquently.

**backstothewall** · 31/03/2020, 12:12 AM

Couple of thoughts tonight.

The first is that we are about to find out how much of a difference the weather makes to this disease. Madrid is being hammered, but the forecast there is a jump from 6�C to 16�C by the end of the week. No better way to establish if a spell of decent weather will make a difference. I've read some stuff (and it's all speculative owing to lack of data) which suggests that the difference isn't directly caused by temperature, but rather by people getting out and about in the sunshine, and the subsequent boost in Vitamin D levels improving the herd immune system. That goes some way to explaining why most diseases go into retreat in the summer months in all latitudes. People in Norway might get out to the beach or into the garden for anything north of 10�C, while people in Portugal probably won't consider it for anything south of 20�C.

If that's the case we're on to a winner as long as we use the time fate has granted us wisely. If this thing fades in the spring sunshine it will be back with a vengeance in October. By the time that comes around though we'll have had months to prepare. A vaccine isn't impossible by then, if only for the most vulnerable. We can also get the ventilators, the testing kits, and the drugs in place to hit the virus harder than it can hit us.

I've been listening to a podcast about the Spanish Flu. In 1918 Philadelphia was hit hard by it. Horrific stuff. They simply couldn't deal with the bodies. Ran out of coffins and ended up digging mass graves. But in 1919 it hardly hit Philly. We've not been hit badly but we need to make sure it stays that way. Chances are that if this goes away in the summer Lombardy won't have much of a problem in the Autumn but those places which haven't been hit hard will take a shellacking if they don't act in the meantime.

The other thing I've been thinking is that this crisis has changed government around the world. It won't last forever, but it's been a much needed reminder that government can actually get it's **** together when it put's its mind to it. Here it's going to be hard to criticise the FG government for their response to this, but the attack line will be "why wasn't this level of energy devoted to tackling housing crisis" or "why can't week keep these healthcare resources in public hands". Government went and did something and now people are going to expect it to do other things. The inertia of the machine won't be good enough for a bit after this.

For that reason I'm more convinced than ever that the next election is a 2 horse race between SF seeking to keep up the momentum of change, and FG trying to ride the wave of the establishment getting the job done and saving granny. The poll yesterday confirmed what I was posting about a few days ago. The Irish people don't need Fianna Fail anymore. This crisis is even worse for them than 08 was.

I can see FG hitting 40%-45% in polls by the time this is over, but I don't for a minute think they can get close to that in a general election. George Bush Sr looked unbeatable in 91 after the Gulf War victory, but within 18 months he had lost the election because of a supermarket till. The nature of this is that an election isn't possible while the crisis is ongoing, but that without the crisis the day to day life issues people face will re-emerge as surely as the sun will rise on election day.