General Election 2020

[osarusan]

I don't know, another election might hurt those would could have formed a govt but didn't.

As mentioned above, I think for plenty of voters, this was a free hit against FG/FF, and I'm not sure it represents a the seismic shift towards SF and their policies that others think.

I'd guess FF and FG would be happy for SF to form what would be an incredibly unstable and likely short-lived govt, to let the public see what SF do in power. I'd guess SF ar actually not too keen on going into govt right now for the same reason.

Opposition looks pretty appealing I'd say.

[peadar1987]

My money would be on FF/FG and the 8 most easily-bribed independents. Parish pump politics and business as usual.

[backstothewall]

My money would be on FF/FG and the 8 most easily-bribed independents. Parish pump politics and business as usual.

SF will romp home next time if that happens.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Sinn Fein need to be wary of entering any kind of government - especially as a minority party - or of trying to arrange a second election. This vote was very fairweather: you had had four candidates elected who lost council seats in May 2019, and one who spent part of the campaign on holiday. That is to say, it seems to me that many SF TD's were elected on the basis of wanting change and thinking the party was the best to provide it, and not on the actual candidate. That kind of support can evaporate pretty quick.

[D24Saint]

Sinn Fein need to be wary of entering any kind of government - especially as a minority party - or of trying to arrange a second election. This vote was very fairweather: you had had four candidates elected who lost council seats in May 2019, and one who spent part of the campaign on holiday. That is to say, it seems to me that many SF TD's were elected on the basis of wanting change and thinking the party was the best to provide it, and not on the actual candidate. That kind of support can evaporate pretty quick.

Normally id agree but with FF failing to capitalise and FG looking momentarily a spent force who would soak up their votes from this election.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It depends how the coming negotiations go I suppose. If SF, alone or with others, is perceived as being too obstinate or willfully refusing to engage, then some of that support - not the dyed-in-the-wool republicans, but the people voting SF for the first time with the expectation of change - could ebb. The smaller parties could benefit. The Greens, Soc Dems and Labour weren't far off a few more seats each last weekend. Aontu were reasonably competitive in a few places outside of Meath West too.

But more likely FF and FG would sound the clarion call of "stability" and attract back some voters. But they have plenty of work to do in the meantime.

[backstothewall]

If another election is the outcome SF will ask the people for one more push to get them over the top.

What message could FF/FG possibly go to the electorate with?

[peadar1987]

SF will romp home next time if that happens.

Possibly. But I'd have thought they'd romp home after FF destroyed the economy and FG made the poor pay to fix it.

[Eminence Grise]

Brendan Howlin the first leadership casualty, setting out on his long goodbye. https://www.rte.ie/news/election-202...-labour-party/ Who'll replace him? Will it matter? Do they need to look to the Soc Dems and consider a merger?

Ivan Yates, meanwhile, on Newstalk, says his sources suggest that FF and FG will let SF try and fail to form a government when the numbers don't stack up, then form a grand coalition with an independent rural clique of TDs (Marian Harkin, Denis Naughton etc). Nineteen independents, so they'll need seven at least, and ten for wiggle room. The gamble is that SF's showing is either a flash in the pan that they can fix by throwing money at problems, or it's the reality of a realignment so they may as well hold on to power for another five years before facing the inevitable.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Certainly seems like Leo is making noises in that direction, saying Sinn Fein had a responsibility to form a government now. But even if SF got every left-wing TD in the Dail, they would still be shot of the 80, so one or both of FF or FG is going to have to give them votes.

[backstothewall]

Brendan Howlin the first leadership casualty, setting out on his long goodbye. https://www.rte.ie/news/election-202...-labour-party/ Who'll replace him? Will it matter? Do they need to look to the Soc Dems and consider a merger?

I'd add the SDLP into that mix. Between the 3 of them there's a coherent all-island party to take on SF on the left.

Ivan Yates, meanwhile, on Newstalk, says his sources suggest that FF and FG will let SF try and fail to form a government when the numbers don't stack up, then form a grand coalition with an independent rural clique of TDs (Marian Harkin, Denis Naughton etc). Nineteen independents, so they'll need seven at least, and ten for wiggle room. The gamble is that SF's showing is either a flash in the pan that they can fix by throwing money at problems, or it's the reality of a realignment so they may as well hold on to power for another five years before facing the inevitable.

I heard that. Interesting theory but Yates embarrassed himself spouting nonsense about rumours he was hearing in the podcast he did before the election so I'm not sure how seriously to take him.

SF probably can't get all the parties on the left to line up behind them, but FF & FG relying on independents will have the same herding cats problem.

Can't imagine Joan Collins, Thomas Pringle, Catherine Connolly or Michael Fitzmaurice would be involved. Even if all the others are on board SF will be only to happy to have their 'Tweedledee & Tweedledum' line confirmed forever more, and chip away the majority through by-elections and defections. They may even convince a FFer or two to cross the floor on day one to speed things along (Looking at you Éamon Ó Cuív).

[nigel-harps1954]

Pringle is ex-Sinn Fein himself, he'd go in there without a second thought.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The "Will Labour/Soc Dems merge" thing has always seemed fanciful to me. Murphy has never been on good terms with Labour, even when she was a member, and Shortall has her own reasons for wanting to stay well-clear. Their party is on the up and might have the opportunity in government to make the case for more gains, why would they want to merge with something as failing as Labour? They might be able to become a force on the left by themselves.

[dahamsta]

The sensible thing for SF to do now is politely say "FF have the most seats so they should lead the talks", then sit down and allow them to go into a messy coalition with FG and I's, and bide their time. There is no sense in trying to form a government. Sitting in opposition is a risk, but it's the only clear route.

[osarusan]

The sensible thing for SF to do now is politely say "FF have the most seats so they should lead the talks", then sit down and allow them to go into a messy coalition with FG and I's, and bide their time. There is no sense in trying to form a government. Sitting in opposition is a risk, but it's the only clear route.

I think they have spent too much time talking about how 'the people voted for change' to make that an option though.

There's every chance there will be another election pretty soon, and all three parties will be trying to blame the others for not having the balls to go into govt when the onus was on them to do so. FF and FG will be giving SF both barrels of that.

[passinginterest]

It's getting to a very sticky situation now. There seems to be prominent members of FF saying no coalition with either SF or FG and saying it's up to SF to form a government. I think it's bizarre that the party with the must seats is arguing that it lost the election and that it's up to the party with the second most to form a Government. Are FF and FG not giving two fingers to their own supporters and those who voted for them by saying that they only want to be in opposition? A return to the electorate is fast becoming the most likely outcome now, but that will hardly produce a much clearer result. Will a change in leadership of FF allow someone else to do a deal with either FG or SF? Or will it only harden the stances on each side? There's clearly not enough numbers to make up a left majority, so it's incredibly disingenuous for FF and FG to be saying off with you and take over. I'm starting to think FF/FG with Independents and or Greens is the most likely coalition, although after protracted talks and bringing us to the brink of another election, the key will be whether they think the backlash will be worse for going back to the polls or for coming together to hold 'the centre' in the interest of 'stability'.

Some of the fear mongering about a left led government is absolutely insane by the way. There's no scenario where we end up with a hardcore Socialist government. As a state we've clearly rejected the extremes of left and right repeatedly. Would there be risks to placing more emphasis on taxing multi-nationals and trying to bring housing stock back towards a more public model? Absolutely, but we're not talking extremes here, the economy is in a fairly good position, we're now the only primary English language state in the EU with full access to the Single Market, the multinationals have built up an enormous base and are in a period of expansion, it's incredibly unlikely that attempting to marginally increase the amount of tax we actually recoup from the will drive them away en-mass or that it will put others off from locating here. My biggest worry, especially with a FF/SF/Green coalition would be we get the most dangerous elements of all their manifestos; the FF tax cuts and spending increases, the SF spending increases without the increased tax take from corporations and high earners due to the compromise with FF and the Greens huge hikes in Carbon tax and more spending on retrofitting etc. It could be a runaway train in terms of spending with nowhere near enough in terms of income, especially if we hit another global downturn. If there's one thing FG have arguably done well it's to keep a fairly tight handle on the purse strings, even as the economy has improved.

[Stuttgart88]

Just watching from afar and looking at social media, if another election was called would people already be deterred by SF's "up the RA" type celebrations?

[backstothewall]

The sensible thing for SF to do now is politely say "FF have the most seats so they should lead the talks", then sit down and allow them to go into a messy coalition with FG and I's, and bide their time. There is no sense in trying to form a government. Sitting in opposition is a risk, but it's the only clear route.

They know it probably won't happen but they want to be seen to trying their best. Their next move is to sweep up the votes of Labour, who they will say with some justification were to cowardly to form a government of the left, and whichever of the Greens or independents go into government with FFG.

I think they have spent too much time talking about how 'the people voted for change' to make that an option though.

There's every chance there will be another election pretty soon, and all three parties will be trying to blame the others for not having the balls to go into govt when the onus was on them to do so. FF and FG will be giving SF both barrels of that.

They are trying to frame this as FF & FG frustrating the will of the people if they go in together. While that's going on they will be getting ready to go again.

They didn't get anyone elected in Cork North-West, Cork South-West, Limerick County or Galway East. They'll put Liadh Ní Riada, Paul Hayes, Séighin Ó Ceallaigh and Louis O'Hara into the Seanad with a view to taking at least 1 seat everywhere next time. Ní Riada would almost certainly have been elected had she stood last week, and the others all went close enough to hope to get in next time.

Just watching from afar and looking at social media, if another election was called would people already be deterred by SF's "up the RA" type celebrations?

If people weren't put off by the Paul Quinn thing, I find it hard to believe somebody shouting 'up the ra' in the backroom of a pub on election night is going to make much difference to them. There's plenty of giving off on social media about it, but if you scroll down through the timelines of the people bringing it up you'll usually find they spent the week before the election posting that Mary-Lou McDonald is the 5th Horseman of the apocalypse.

[osarusan]

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/202...nn-fein-talks/

FF agrees not to go into coalition with SF.

This makes another election much more likely as far as I can see. FG and FF can't back down now, SF can't form a govt without them, and I don't think that an FF+FG coalition would do either of them any favours, as SF would make hay about not being allowed to govern, mandate for change etc.

[NeverFeltBetter]

But confidence and supply hasn't been ruled out I see...

Interesting that Labour have ruled themselves out of government, but presumably they'd vote the way of a SF government anyway. A new leader might change course as well (Kelly doesn't strike me as a man to be happy in opposition for example).

Just watching from afar and looking at social media, if another election was called would people already be deterred by SF's "up the RA" type celebrations?

Just to give anecdotal evidence, a sibling of mine voted SF for the first time, and was immediately put off by both what you reference and the "Come Out Ye Black and Tans" stuff at another count, enough that they expressed concern about what they voted for. They wouldn't be a politico or a dyed-in-the-wool republican, voted for SF primarily because of their economic pledges, and couldn't care less about Irish unity. It's perfectly possible that such voters could get scared off if that section of Sinn Fein is a bit too, shall we say, rambunctious in a government.