Fly's 4 options are all plausible but each poses problems.
Opinion poll results will reflect the bias of the pollster's client so are likely to be volatile.
Declared faith isn't directly matched to voting. And recent evidence (EG Abortion Referendum) suggests people are giving up faith in large number. If you're simply using Catholic as shorthand for Nationalist, why not count the Nat vote in an election or 2. They're still pretty frequent despite loss of Stormont...
So would it be within the Assembly, those returned to it in a GE or a vote taken within it at some stage, which would set this in motion ?
There will prob be a British General Election before Xmas this year. A clear rise for Nationalism and/or drop for Unionism and a 2 option border referendum becomes more likely.
Stormont can't deliver anything while shut, obviously. But if/ when it reopens, a STV election will likely benefit Alliance more than Unionism or Nationalism...
I think that's actually a problematic phrase - for a referendum to be considered "likely" to pass, I would think there would have to be consistent indicators that the result would be a certain amount above the 50%+1 normally required for a democratic referendum to pass. Does this mean that if there's only a "reasonable possibility" of a referendum passing (polls showing tight preferences, an Assembly split between Unionists on one side and Nationalists and the Alliance on the other), the Secretary of State could decide not to hold a Referendum at all?Originally Posted by The Fly
Problematic phrase alert
Referenda often require a threshold higher than 50%+1, for good reasons. To ensure that the result will be widely accepted, hasn't been affected by force majeure/ freak weather etc., or can't immediately be contradicted by a poll or even an election.
If we assume that the Unionist vote remains in at least gradual decline, what's the problem in waiting until pro-UI is clearly greater than say 55%?
Yes, and such a decision would be recognised as rational, including by parties in the South. Whatever Sinn Fein gurn in response.Does this mean that if there's only a "reasonable possibility" of a referendum passing (polls showing tight preferences, an Assembly split between Unionists on one side and Nationalists and the Alliance on the other), the Secretary of State could decide not to hold a Referendum at all?
That's even before you consider the possibility that a future Brit viceroy/ stooge might be even dimmer/ lazier/ more unwell? than the hapless Karen Bradley...
You can have 50% +1, 55%, 65%, 90%, but there will always be an element of North Ireland's population who will not accept unification under any circumstances. Among the many difficult conversations to have about unification is what to do about those people if a vote is won.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
If that minority is 49% of the population of NI you delay unity. If it's 4.9% you can probably assume grudging acceptance.
I think the point here is more about consistent majorities in polls and I assume this involves the results from different polling companies.
I'm just using it because Catholic (and Protestant) are still the most useful umbrella terms for each respective cultural/tribal affiliation.
Because that involves another problematic phrase; a 'Unionist veto'.Problematic phrase alert
Referenda often require a threshold higher than 50%+1, for good reasons. To ensure that the result will be widely accepted, hasn't been affected by force majeure/ freak weather etc., or can't immediately be contradicted by a poll or even an election.
If we assume that the Unionist vote remains in at least gradual decline, what's the problem in waiting until pro-UI is clearly greater than say 55%?
Last edited by The Fly; 06/10/2019 at 9:34 PM.
Two or three separate but simultaneous polls might give quite different levels of majority, depending on how the question is put. Such results wouldn't be consistent.
Disagree. Nationalist and Unionist have always been better; even they are less comprehensive than they were when more than 20% vote Alliance etc.; and as I mentioned above it's obvious that large sections of the population- young and old- are simply uninterested in religion, let alone following it tribally...I'm just using it because Catholic (and Protestant) are still the most useful umbrella terms for each respective cultural/tribal affiliation
It doesn't really. There will always be a disaffected minority of (ex) Unionists, as I suggested. If it falls below a critical mass it can be ignored/ sidelined. If it's close to 50%-1 you need to work with it, not just repeat ancient slogans.Because that involves another problematic phrase; a 'Unionist veto'
Last edited by Gather round; 08/10/2019 at 1:15 PM.
Consistency comes with time; from separate polling conducted over months, or up to a year or more. I doubt a referendum will be called from the kind of snapshot in time that you've described there.
I'm referring to their overarching use as cultural markers, as opposed to the specific religious aspect. We could be splitting hairs at this point, so if you want to go with Nationalist and Unionist then fair enough.
It does in effect, regardless of the supposed merits of a higher threshold.
Last edited by The Fly; 08/10/2019 at 9:59 PM.
Morning Fly, fair points. Just briefly,
1 Your 'consistency comes with time' and my 'let's wait until every poll shows at least 55%' aren't too far apart?
2 Apart from the Nat and Uni designations, I try to avoid discussing 'cultural markers'. My culture is basically what it was when I was a teenager- 70s dad rock, football/ cricket and the occasional high-falutin' doc on BBC 4. Nothing to do with languages barely anyone I know can speak, or noxious fumes from a New Lodge bonfire...
3 Unionists and Nationalists will continue to assume they have a veto as long as a) there are enough of both groups to get an audience and b) that audience is hidebound by your #2
How many miles are we talking about here?Morning Fly, fair points. Just briefly,
1 Your 'consistency comes with time' and my 'let's wait until every poll shows at least 55%' aren't too far apart?
Seriously though, I get the logic of what you're advocating and it's perhaps sensible in a more normal society. But applied to NI, where two national identities and constitutional positions are in conflict and competition, it provides one side with an effective veto.
I thought 'dad rock' began in the 80s?
It's not on to equate Irish with an accent and a conflagration.
In other words, why can't everyone just be embrace abstraction and Northern Irishness.
Last edited by The Fly; 10/10/2019 at 1:36 PM.
Well well well, what are the odds of the deal getting through, and if not who will be the ones to scupper it?
Doesn't seem like Labour are making positive noises, and with the DUP also deadset against it (seemingly)...
If BoJo is actually serious about this deal - not at all a sure thing - he presumably has a plan to buy the DUP off, or is hoping to get Corbyn to decide enough is enough on the Brexit issue. I guess we'll see. Not hopeful. Still think the most likely outcome is rejection by Parliament, an extension to hold an election, a Tory/Brexit Party majority and then a no deal exit.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
Rule, Britannia!
Britannia, waives the rules!
Two from three so far there Mr crystal ball.
Been watching some old episodes of Top Gear on Netflix recently. Series 20 ended with a parade of vehicles manufactured in the UK on the Mall.
What struck me was the number of factories they visitors that have shut, or reduced productivity due to Brexit
The scenes where they visit the factories are not in that clip, so I did some research on each of the ones mentioned
Honda announced they will close the plant in Swindon in 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47287386
Toyota in Derby to "pause" production in Derbyshire after Brexit:: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-49526799
Nissan cancelled the manufacture of the X-Trail in Sunderland, and the plant itself might not survive Brexit: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/b...and/index.html
Ineos to acquire French factory, instead of building Land Rover in Wales: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53317740
And Nissan and Toyota may demand compensation from the government if no-deal goes through: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/busin...o-deal-brexit/
Mercedes F1 have made noises a few times about moving from their UK base because of a no-deal Brexit too. I suppose that's a different kind of problem, but they employ over a thousand people in their HQ and are generally treated as a British brand because of Lewis Hamilton.
Author of Never Felt Better (History, Film Reviews).
Shots fired...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-54827100
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said the UK government intends to refuse another independence referendum "for a generation".
In a BBC interview, Mr Jack suggested a generation could be "25 or 40 years".
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon accused him of a 'rage against democracy' that would not prevail in blocking Indyref2. Meanwhile, former Tory minister Lord Dunlop has said Boris Johnson urgently needs a clear strategy to counter rising support for independence.
Ten opinion polls since June have suggested a majority now favour Scottish independence, with 54% on average backing yes.
The UK government has consistently opposed a new vote, and Mr Jack has sought to harden this position.
Can Scotland sue them?
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