Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

**backstothewall** · 24/01/2018, 5:53 PM

Originally Posted by Gather round

I should have added a #2.1 above- ie that even if there was a NI constituency in the 2019 Euro poll I doubt that any Unionist would run. DUP as their 2 main convictions are anti-Dublin and Brussels; UUP because it would drain their support to the DUP. The off-chance of keeping Jim Nicholson's expenses pales by comparison. As there would be only 2 seats not 3, SF might well get close to 2 quotas on the 1st count

I don't see where you get the idea that there would only be 2 seats from. On my reading the 2 extra seats are due by virtue of the population of the 26 counties being proportionally higher within an EU with 60m less people in it after the UK leaves. If we were to continue to be represented as part of the brexit deals i would have assumed that would be further seats in addition to the 13 agreed this week.

It being the EU it would be a bespoke arrangement so who knows what it could end up being. I guess the 2 additional seats could simply be granted to the north, but it seems more likely we would retain the status quo in the short term, or Ireland could be reapportioned to take account of an increased population that includes the north. That would be roughly 6.5m people which would see us between Denmark who will be getting 14, and Bulgaria who will be getting 17 under the new arrangements.

**Gather round** · 25/01/2018, 7:59 AM

Originally Posted by backstothewall

I don't see where you get the idea that there would only be 2 seats from

I explained above. There will probably be only 2 net extra seats in the next EuroPoll, and it will suit FF/ FG to 'allocate' them as I described. The other stuff you mention is interesting but the big boys will ignore it for now

**backstothewall** · 28/02/2018, 3:59 PM

Originally Posted by Gather round

I explained above. There will probably be only 2 net extra seats in the next EuroPoll, and it will suit FF/ FG to 'allocate' them as I described. The other stuff you mention is interesting but the big boys will ignore it for now

If you accept the hypothetical premise that NI was included in an islandwide Irish election, it follows that there would have to have been some apportionment for the extra population beforehand. To suggest otherwise is illogical, even in the discussion of a hypothetical.

More DUP tail wagging the British dog today. Barnier should walk away and advise the EU to start preparing for WTO arrangements. May can't deliver any sort of deal that the EU would be interested in.

**Gather round** · 05/03/2018, 9:09 AM

Originally Posted by backstothewall

If you accept the hypothetical premise that NI was included in an islandwide Irish election, it follows that there would have to have been some apportionment for the extra population beforehand. To suggest otherwise is illogical, even in the discussion of a hypothetical

Apologies for the delay. I was just assuming that a) Ireland would get extra seats after Britain leaves then b) those seats would be geographically in the South to start with, to benefit FG over SF

More DUP tail wagging the British dog today. Barnier should walk away and advise the EU to start preparing for WTO arrangements. May can't deliver any sort of deal that the EU would be interested in.

Agreed, it does look that way

**mypost** · 26/06/2018, 5:49 PM

The UK government haven't taken too well to the Airbus ultimatum last week. Just to give them a little reminder of what's at stake before their government goes to Brussels this week. Only 14,000 jobs. Not to mention the ones already lost, and the ones we don't hear of. It seems amazing to think that 2 years down the line, and they are no more prepared for leaving the EU now than on the day of the poll.

Like most of us, I think they're bonkers to abandon ship. Amid the fallout and the recriminations, some of the reasons they gave for voting for it were ridiculous. The best I heard was one voter just "wanted a change". Well he'll get a change, just maybe not the one he was looking for, or promised by the Brexiteers.

However, I watched the count on the night itself, and how various Irish and EU politicians reacted to the result in the time since. Many of them were telling us to vote for the Lisbon Treaty all those years ago, their supporters were waving the tricolour around Dublin Castle on the day the electorate complied with their demands, and are now crying into their cappuccinos because the Brits have used the specific clause in it to leave the club. And it's no defence saying that it wasn't foreseen. The clause was in it and the Brits have always been strongly eurosceptic, so when they got the chance to leave, they took it.

Karma.

**Charlie Darwin** · 27/06/2018, 1:59 AM

Originally Posted by mypost

The UK government haven't taken too well to the Airbus ultimatum last week. Just to give them a little reminder of what's at stake before their government goes to Brussels this week. Only 14,000 jobs. Not to mention the ones already lost, and the ones we don't hear of. It seems amazing to think that 2 years down the line, and they are no more prepared for leaving the EU now than on the day of the poll.

Like most of us, I think they're bonkers to abandon ship. Amid the fallout and the recriminations, some of the reasons they gave for voting for it were ridiculous. The best I heard was one voter just "wanted a change". Well he'll get a change, just maybe not the one he was looking for, or promised by the Brexiteers.

However, I watched the count on the night itself, and how various Irish and EU politicians reacted to the result in the time since. Many of them were telling us to vote for the Lisbon Treaty all those years ago, their supporters were waving the tricolour around Dublin Castle on the day the electorate complied with their demands, and are now crying into their cappuccinos because the Brits have used the specific clause in it to leave the club. And it's no defence saying that it wasn't foreseen. The clause was in it and the Brits have always been strongly eurosceptic, so when they got the chance to leave, they took it.

Karma.

With the loss of Airbus, their chances of getting into space aviation look limited too.

**The Fly** · 08/07/2018, 11:23 PM

The **** is hitting the fan.

**backstothewall** · 17/07/2018, 11:48 PM

Originally Posted by backstothewall

Barnier should walk away and advise the EU to start preparing for WTO arrangements. May can't deliver any sort of deal that the EU would be interested in.

28th February i posted that. Has anything really changed since then?

The only thing that might possibly have changed is that I'm no longer convinced May could even deliver a deal that the EU wouldn't be interested in.

Seems unlikely she could successfully deliver so much as a bowl of sugar to 11 Downing Street.

**ArdeeBhoy** · 10/08/2018, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by mypost

Karma.

How so?

**NeverFeltBetter** · 10/08/2018, 11:14 AM

I see there's a story going around about polling showing a swing to "Remain" now. I don't see a re-run of the referendum happening but is it beyond the bounds of possibility that a proposed EU agreement be put to the people on a "Yes/No" basis? Let the population declare an assent to a customs union if the appetite is there, or an assent for No Deal unpredictability if that's what they really want.

I'm also surprised, seeing Nicola Sturgeon pop back up in the news lately, that no EU officials have stirred the pot by saying they'd welcome an independent Scotland into the fold.

There's still indications that, in the event of a No Deal the British will try and pull a "We're not putting customs checks on the border, you can do what you want" position, so it bears repeating that such an action would be against the rules of the WTO and would leave Britain "vulnerable to widespread litigation".

**The Fly** · 10/08/2018, 4:54 PM

Originally Posted by NeverFeltBetter

I see there's a story going around about polling showing a swing to "Remain" now. I don't see a re-run of the referendum happening but is it beyond the bounds of possibility that a proposed EU agreement be put to the people on a "Yes/No" basis? Let the population declare an assent to a customs union if the appetite is there, or an assent for No Deal unpredictability if that's what they really want.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility but it's highly improbable. A 'No' result would just be used as a vehicle to overturn the result of the original referendum.

The problem in Britain is that you have a policy without a government, not to mention that most of Parliament itself is in favour of Remain. The same probably applies to the civil service and possibly the Judiciary. In addition to this you have the fact that those who led the campaign to Leave largely 'disappeared' after, when in normal circumstances they would have had the responsibility for its implementation.

In a country where Parliament is sovereign the confusion and chaos (whilst to be expected to some degree because of the scale of the constitutional change) is therefore hardly surprising. It also raises questions about the wisdom of having referendums in such a political set up in the first place.

**The Fly** · 27/10/2018, 8:34 PM

Here's something to break the Brexit ice -

**The Fly** · 15/11/2018, 2:49 PM

**backstothewall** · 03/12/2018, 3:45 PM

Defeat in the Commons looks inevitable. God knows what happens next

bpanews_99e607d6-30a2-4756-a669-6c1eef8b2456_embedded239949313.jpg

**dahamsta** · 06/12/2018, 12:01 PM

Chaos, hopefully. I'm sorry, but the country needs a funt up the arse for that referendum, even with the fraud. It was always going to be bad for Britain. Always.

Who's the moronic Lib Dem?

**backstothewall** · 06/12/2018, 2:10 PM

Originally Posted by dahamsta

Chaos, hopefully.

Originally Posted by dahamsta

Who's the moronic Lib Dem?

Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne)

**dahamsta** · 06/12/2018, 2:40 PM

https://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/n...whip-1-8731000

**peadar1987** · 07/12/2018, 8:39 PM

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-thr...81228-Dec2018/

Classy.

**Eminence Grise** · 12/12/2018, 9:39 AM

Theresa May faces a no confidence vote of the party tonight. I teach pol comms to postgrads and at this stage I'm flipping clueless for predictions - it'd easier to predict the end to Game of Thrones.

The Tories - the gits that keep on giving.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...-got-1.3728601

**Real ale Madrid** · 12/12/2018, 9:48 AM

My Prediction:

1. May wins No confidence motion

2. Labour / SNP bring a no confidence motion against the Government - it is defeated.

3. Brexit Deal is brought before Parliament and despite 1. & 2. it is defeated.

4. Utter dysfunction.

The only thing that will save a hard Brexit at this stage is a delay to Article 50 and a people's vote imo. Otherwise it is WTO tariffs for the UK and God knows what for the border.