World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

[DannyInvincible]

I see FIFA have announced the play-offs will be seeded: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017...-cup-play-off/

I don't think that would benefit us. Just doing a quick scan through the FIFA rankings of the current second-placed teams (in order to give a very rough guide, as we still don't know for certain who'll finish as runners-up) and I can see that Portugal (6th), Italy (12th), Sweden (19th), Iceland (20th), Slovakia (22nd) and NI (23rd) would all be ranked ahead of us. We're ranked 29th at the minute. Obviously, only the four highest-ranked teams out of the eight play-off qualifiers will be seeded.

(Would it be worth a mod separating the posts relating to runners-up and the play-offs into a "play-off permutations" thread or something like that, as I'm sure there'll be plenty of discussion on that front as a consequence of last night's result?)

[boysingreen]

Personally, I fear it won't be enough. If we do manage two wins in our final two games and finish second, I suspect we'll still miss out on the play-offs on goal difference. I expect Greece to finish second in group H with two wins over Cyprus and Gibraltar in their final two games and I think that'll prove fatal for us. There are other results in other groups that could go our way, but I'm not overly confident. I think Scotland could still finish second on 18 points in their group, for example, which would leave them on 12 points in the runners-up table (a point behind our hypothetical 13), but the likelihood of results going that way in Scotland's group is exceptionally slim, I'd say.

It's a total head-fry trying to work it all out. I genuinely think you'd need some sort of programme/generator to compile a list of all the possible permutations in order to see which results would be beneficial for us. Usually the much-maligned Balls.ie are useful for that sort of thing; their saving grace perhaps, ha. They may well have their people on the case.

So I take it then that if Wales drop pts v Georgia, it's highly improbable for us to get a playoff spot with just a draw in Cardiff?

[DannyInvincible]

So I take it then that if Wales drop pts v Georgia, it's highly improbable for us to get a playoff spot with just a draw in Cardiff?

We could qualify for the play-offs with a draw against Wales in theory, so long as we finished ahead of Wales in second place, so they'd have to drop points in Georgia. I looked at some ways in which I think we could potentially get into the play-offs with a draw against Wales (leaving us on 11 points in the table ranking runners-up) here: http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republ...=1#post1935250

I think it'd be a miracle if we managed to get to the play-offs with a draw in Cardiff.

[DeLorean]

Zidane would prefer if Bale doesn't play for Wales - http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-36187225.html

Gareth will go with his national team. He has not played, but as he still has a bit of an issue we would prefer him not to play.

[DeLorean]

Not as thorough as Danny's work on the various permutations, but Dan McDonnell gives a handy summary of what is realistically required from the other groups should we manage to get the six points needed - http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-36187224.html

If the already-qualified Belgium stop hosts Bosnia from winning their penultimate qualifier next Saturday and Greece drop points to neighbours Cyprus on the same evening, then a six-point finish for Ireland would definitely be enough to avoid a cruel fate.

If that fails, the other group of realistic interest is Group F which has been dominated by England. What Ireland need there is Gareth Southgate's men to defeat Slovenia on Thursday. At the same time, the key match is in Glasgow where a home success for Scotland against Slovakia is essential. The hope would be that Scotland follow that up by failing to win in Slovenia on the Sunday.

So, basically, we should know by Saturday night if we're screwed or not. If Slovakia get a result in Scotland and Greece win in Cyprus, the game is pretty much up. Those two things, in particular, are very likely to happen.

Group F

Thursday
England v Slovenia (19:45) - England win needed
Scotland v Slovakia (19:45) - Scotland win needed

Sunday
Slovakia v Malta (17:00)
Slovenia v Scotland (17:00) - Slovenia to get something needed (in addition to the above)

OR

Group H

Saturday
Bosnia-Herzigovina v Belgium (17:00) - Belgium win needed
Cyprus v Greece (19:45) - Cyprus to get something needed

Tuesday
Estonia v Bosnia-Herzigovina (19:45) - Estonia to get something possibly needed
Greece v Gibraltar (19:45)

[Diggs246]

I know I'm in denial of our fate, but Cyprus's home form is actually quite good, they have only lost to Belgium

[DeLorean]

I know I'm in denial of our fate, but Cyprus's home form is actually quite good, they have only lost to Belgium

Yeah, I looked at that too and sadly it's probably our best chance.

[geysir]

Zidane would prefer if Bale doesn't play for Wales - http://www.independent.ie/sport/socc...-36187225.html

I agree with Zidane.

[jbyrne]

I agree with Zidane.

I don't know. have a feeling he will get himself sent off against us

[tetsujin1979]

He nearly did in the game at the Aviva. A tackle on O'Shea in the penalty area a few minutes before Coleman's injury could have easily been a red

[DeLorean]

It looks like The Independent were twisting Zidane's words above to create more of a stir. - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soc...roup-1.3241068

"He will travel with his international team,” Zidane explained to reporters in Spain.

“He could have played with us but I preferred to leave him out as he had a small complaint.

“He’s fine. After so many games at the start of the season and four months of injury, he was suffering after the game in Dortmund.

“He strained his hamstring but in the end it’s nothing. It’s not an injury. I’ve spoken to him and the doctors.”

[geysir]

It's a win win situation for us, even if he plays he'll get himself sent off.

[DannyInvincible]

RTÉ have also compiled an outline of possible permutations that may allow us to qualify for the play-offs: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017...-playoff-spot/

The shopping list of results Ireland want in other groups (in order of priority and likelihood):

Group H

Bosnia v Belgium (away win or draw)
Cyprus v Greece (draw or home win)

Result: Neither Greece nor Bosnia would be able to reach 13 points in runners up table


Group I [sic: should say "Group F"]

Scotland v Slovakia (home win)
England v Slovenia (home win)
Slovenia v Scotland (home win or draw)

Result: Scotland, Slovenia and Slovakia would fall short of 13 points tally


Group E

Montenegro v Denmark (narrow home win)
Poland v Montenegro (comprehensive home win)
Denmark v Romania (away win or draw)

Result: Montenegro would potentially fall behind Ireland on goal difference; Denmark wouldn't reach the 13-point tally on goal difference


Group C

Northern Ireland v Germany (very heavy away win)
Norway v Northern Ireland (home win)

Result: Northern Ireland would remain stuck on 13 points in runners up table would a much poorer goal difference

The author didn't go into group I - Iceland and Turkey's group - in great detail, but I looked at how that group could potentially work in our favour here: http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republ...=1#post1935250

Of course, any chance we might have through other results is dependent on us doing the business and finishing second in our group first.

[Real ale Madrid]

Bale ruled out for Wales' set of qualifying fixtures.

I think if Wales fail to win in Tbilisi they can only get to a max of 12 points by beating us which means they could be out of contention by the time we play them.

Yes / No / maybe?

[DeLorean]

Yeah, that's correct. They probably wouldn't be mathematically out of contention but would be hoping for a miracle along the lines of Gibraltar getting a result against Greece or Malta against Slovakia, I would think.

We might be better off playing a Wales team not just out to stifle us though. Hard to know, and we must beat Moldova first of course.

[geysir]

It looks like The Independent were twisting Zidane's words above to create more of a stir. - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soc...roup-1.3241068

The Indo were just more up to date with information.

The IT's quote from Zidane came from a saturday pre-match (Espanyol) interview where he played down Bale's strain.

The Indo's quote of Zidane urging caution came from a post match interview

Speaking after against Espanyol, Zidane urged the Dragons to handle the 28-year-old's injury problem with care.
"Gareth will go with his national team," he told reporters. "He has not played, but as he still has a bit of an issue and we would prefer him not to play."

[DeLorean]

Ah, fair enough. I stand corrected.

[DeLorean]

Group C

Northern Ireland v Germany (very heavy away win)
Norway v Northern Ireland (home win)

Result: Northern Ireland would remain stuck on 13 points in runners up table would a much poorer goal difference

NI have an impressive GD of +7 against the relevant teams, conceding only twice (both against Germany). Our GD is zero against the relevant teams so if we pick up the six points needed, it will increase to a minimum of +1. So we need NI to lose both games and by an aggregate of -7 for this to be a runner. Germany will need to do the bulk of the work here you would think, it's highly far-fetched but they have been known to pull the occasional 6-1, or even 7-1 victory out of the bag!

[Diggs246]

sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?

this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia

[zero]

sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?

this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia

that would put us on 11 points with +1 GD so i think we need greece to lose in cyprus by either more than 2 goals (they are +3 GD currently in the 2nd place race) or by 2 goals and we draw at least 2-2 with wales, and bosnia to only pick up 1 more point from their last two games (home to belgium, away to estonia). and of course wales to fail to beat georgia.