NFL Betting Thread 2016

[Real ale Madrid]

Another Tracker thread for me - this time for NFL 2016 season.

I have put aside a bank of €200.

€50 for a pre season total wins bet.

€10 per week 4 team handicap accumulators. Hopefully this thread keeps me honest.

I had some success with a similar +2.5 goals acca. thread for the LoI last year but finding it difficult to get the odds to keep it worthwhile.

Anyway, here is what I gone for, for the season long 4 team wins bet:

Houston Texans - OVER 8.5 wins @ 4/6
Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 9.5 wins @ evens
Carolina Panthers - OVER 10.5 wins @ evens
Washington Professional Football Team - OVER 7.5 wins
€50 @ 10.5/1 with PP

WEEK 1 BET
PACKERS (-5.0) @ Jaguars 10/11
CHIEFS (-6.5) v Chargers 10/11
EAGLES (-3.5) v Browns 10/11
RAVENS (-3.0) v Bills 5/6
€10 @ 11.75 / 1 with Skybet

Comments / other bets welcome - follow at your peril.

[Real ale Madrid]

WEEK 1 BET
PACKERS (-5.0) @ Jaguars 10/11 LOSE
CHIEFS (-6.5) v Chargers 10/11 LOSE
EAGLES (-3.5) v Browns 10/11 WIN
RAVENS (-3.0) v Bills 5/6 WIN
€10 @ 11.75 / 1 with Skybet

So the Pack and KC just fail to cover the spreads on week 1.

WEEK 2.

NY GIANTS (-4.0) v Saints 20/21
RAVENS (-5.5) @ Browns 10/11
STEELERS (-3.0) v Bengals 20/23
TITANS (+6.0) @ Lions 20/21
€10 @ 12.6/1 with b365

Bit of a shot in the dark this week, very difficult due to some surprising results last week. You have to think that the Giants will have too much at home on both sides of the ball for the Saints who looked up to their old defensive tricks again last week.
I'll probably be piggybacking on the Ravens a bit this year - some had them favorites for the superbowl 12 months ago. A bad run of injuries meant they had no chance but i expect them to compete well this year.
I was mightily impressed with the Steelers last week even though they caught a few nice breaks in the first half, they look like AFC favs to me.
And Bill Simmons convinced me to back the Titans in Detroit - spread looks far too big and I agree.

[swinfordfc]

Another Tracker thread for me - this time for NFL 2016 season.

I have put aside a bank of €200.

€50 for a pre season total wins bet.

€10 per week 4 team handicap accumulators. Hopefully this thread keeps me honest.

I had some success with a similar +2.5 goals acca. thread for the LoI last year but finding it difficult to get the odds to keep it worthwhile.

Anyway, here is what I gone for, for the season long 4 team wins bet:

Houston Texans - OVER 8.5 wins @ 4/6
Cincinnati Bengals - OVER 9.5 wins @ evens
Carolina Panthers - OVER 10.5 wins @ evens
Washington Professional Football Team - OVER 7.5 wins
€50 @ 10.5/1 with PP

WEEK 1 BET
PACKERS (-5.0) @ Jaguars 10/11
CHIEFS (-6.5) v Chargers 10/11
EAGLES (-3.5) v Browns 10/11
RAVENS (-3.0) v Bills 5/6
€10 @ 11.75 / 1 with Skybet

Comments / other bets welcome - follow at your peril.

Washington lucky to win 5 games this year!

[Real ale Madrid]

Washington lucky to win 5 games this year!

Well its easy to say that now given they are 0-2!

[swinfordfc]

Well its easy to say that now given they are 0-2!

Cousins is brutal! He just cant trust himself with the throws and thus he's done at the end of this year - especially he got good WR's to throw to and the TE's aren't bad either!

[Real ale Madrid]

Cousins is brutal! He just cant trust himself with the throws and thus he's done at the end of this year - especially he got good WR's to throw to and the TE's aren't bad either!

I actually think Cousins is not that bad a player - he has had over 600 yards over the first 2 games but the mistakes are of the clanger variety. He reminds me a bit of Tony Romo a few years ago. Don't quit on the redskins yet although I admit the likelihood of them going 8-6 for the rest of the year is not good - especially given how strong the Eagles look now especially on defense.

[Real ale Madrid]

So the Pack and KC just fail to cover the spreads on week 1.

WEEK 2.

NY GIANTS (-4.0) v Saints 20/21 LOSE
RAVENS (-5.5) @ Browns 10/11 LOSE
STEELERS (-3.0) v Bengals 20/23 WIN
TITANS (+6.0) @ Lions 20/21 WIN
€10 @ 12.6/1 with b365.

A touch gutted actually last week as the Ravens fell short by a point and NY for some reason could only score 13 against the Saints.

This week i've gone for home form!

GREEN BAY (-6.0) v Lions 10/11
BUCCANEERS (-4.0) v Rams 10/11
CHIEFS (-3.0) v Jets Evens
COLTS (-2.5) v Chargers 10/11

€10 @12.92 / 1 with Sky.

4 teams who lost last week to cover home spreads! Seems mental but all 4 lost tough away games last week and I can't help but think that helps the spread slightly in each. Most unsure about the Colts but they simply have to win today.

[Real ale Madrid]

Attachment 2467

Too busy to explain but here is this week's bet.

[swinfordfc]

Attachment 2467

Too busy to explain but here is this week's bet.

Well the redskins and hawks have done their bit!

[Real ale Madrid]

Well the redskins and hawks have done their bit!

And the Professional Football team in Washington is 2-2 now!

[swinfordfc]

And the Professional Football team in Washington is 2-2 now!

They just about beat the browns! .... If they were to beat the ravens or the eagles ..... then maybe ...... they like mayo!

[Real ale Madrid]

Week 3
GREEN BAY (-6.0) v Lions 10/11 WIN
BUCCANEERS (-4.0) v Rams 10/11 LOSE
CHIEFS (-3.0) v Jets Evens WIN
COLTS (-2.5) v Chargers 10/11 WIN

€10 @12.92 / 1 with Sky.

Week 3 was looking good but an LA Rams Team who failed to score a TD in weeks 1 and 2 scuppered the week by scoring 37 points in Tampa.

Week 4
WASHINGTON (-7.0) v Browns 5/6 WIN
SEAHAWKS (-1.0) @ Jets 10/11 WIN
STEELERS (-3.0) v Chiefs 5/6 WIN
VIKINGS (-4.0) v Giants 20/23 WIN
€10 @ 10.99/1

Week 4 however it all comes together. Washington takes avantage of a couple of late turnovers to beat the spread v the Browns. The Jets' collapsing secondary gave the Seahawks the impetus to grab a much needed win in NY and the Steelers on SNF and the Vikings on MNF never looked in doubt after that. A nice €11 bonus from bet365 brought the total return to €120.97.

So after 4 weeks :
Starting Bank: €200.00
Current Bank: €230.97

Onto Week 5

COLTS (-4.5) v Bears 10/11
PATRIOTS (-10.5) @ Browns 10/11
EAGLES (-3.0) @ LIONS 5/6
VIKINGS (-6.0) v Texans 20/23

€10 @11.49/1

The Colts might only need 7 wins to win the AFC North and make the playoffs so they still have a lot to play for as the season goes on against a rudderless looking Bears team.
The Patriots, despite a weird home shutout against the Bills look pretty solid defensively and if they can get 24-30 pts away in Cleveland with Brady and a fit Gronk, then the spread surely looks beatable there.
The Eagles haven't beaten much but the Lions look poor and i'd fancy the Eagles to win and cover having had 2 weeks to prepare.
The Vikings continue to be underrated and i'll be backing them while that continues - I can't believe this spread against a Texans outfit who just lost JJ Watt.

[swinfordfc]

Week 3 was looking good but an LA Rams Team who failed to score a TD in weeks 1 and 2 scuppered the week by scoring 37 points in Tampa.



Week 4 however it all comes together. Washington takes avantage of a couple of late turnovers to beat the spread v the Browns. The Jets' collapsing secondary gave the Seahawks the impetus to grab a much needed win in NY and the Steelers on SNF and the Vikings on MNF never looked in doubt after that. A nice €11 bonus from bet365 brought the total return to €120.97.

So after 4 weeks :
Starting Bank: €200.00
Current Bank: €230.97

Onto Week 5

COLTS (-4.5) v Bears 10/11
PATRIOTS (-10.5) @ Browns 10/11
EAGLES (-3.0) @ LIONS 5/6
VIKINGS (-6.0) v Texans 20/23

€10 @11.49/1

The Colts might only need 7 wins to win the AFC North and make the playoffs so they still have a lot to play for as the season goes on against a rudderless looking Bears team.
The Patriots, despite a weird home shutout against the Bills look pretty solid defensively and if they can get 24-30 pts away in Cleveland with Brady and a fit Gronk, then the spread surely looks beatable there.
The Eagles haven't beaten much but the Lions look poor and i'd fancy the Eagles to win and cover having had 2 weeks to prepare.
The Vikings continue to be underrated and i'll be backing them while that continues - I can't believe this spread against a Texans outfit who just lost JJ Watt.

Ouch .... on the Eagles!

[Real ale Madrid]

Onto Week 5

COLTS (-4.5) v Bears 10/11 WIN
PATRIOTS (-10.5) @ Browns 10/11 WIN
EAGLES (-3.0) @ LIONS 5/6 LOSE
VIKINGS (-6.0) v Texans 20/23 WIN

€10 @11.49/1

Ouch .... on the Eagles!

Couldn't have put it better myself.

Week 6

Patriots (-7.5) v Bengals
Ravens (+3.5) @ Giants
Bills (-8.0) v 49ers
LA Rams (+3.0) @ Lions

€10 @ 13.23/1

It actually looks mental on paper. How on Earth are the Bills giving 2 scores to anyone but they are in great form which will stop eventually - but hopefully not today. The Pats offence looked like it could have got 50/60 points last week before a slow down, at home I fancy them to cover again this week. The Ravens are going well and I think the spread is too high at the Giants who look in a bit of disarray. And I've not taken the hint against the Lions after they done me last week - and after the Rams 2 very impressive wins on the road so far this year I'll back them to at least cover this week again.

[Real ale Madrid]

Vomit everywhere.

[swinfordfc]

Okay - maybe you do know about me with American Football! ... I think your right - the Redskins will get over 7.5 wins but do you think they make the playoffs? .... Think the Cowboys will win the Division! ... and it kills me to say that!

[Real ale Madrid]

Okay - maybe you do know about me with American Football! ... I think your right - the Redskins will get over 7.5 wins but do you think they make the playoffs? .... Think the Cowboys will win the Division! ... and it kills me to say that!

Cowboys look excellent.

Washington have a tough schedule from here on in, its currently the 4th toughest projected in the league - but if they can beat the Lions on Sunday - they then have 3 games in a row at home v Bengals (in London) , Vikings, Packers - they could win all 3 of those but they could easily lose those three also.
They need to beat Cincy and the Packers - if they do that they will be 7-3. Not a bad spot before they play in Dallas on Thanksgiving and then away in Arizona. They then finish with @Eagles, Panthers, Bears & Giants.
I'd fancy them to win their last 3 to get to 10 wins. And Considering Washington are in the W/C spot at the moment - I can't see who would get to 11 wins below them.

[swinfordfc]

Cowboys look excellent.

Washington have a tough schedule from here on in, its currently the 4th toughest projected in the league - but if they can beat the Lions on Sunday - they then have 3 games in a row at home v Bengals (in London) , Vikings, Packers - they could win all 3 of those but they could easily lose those three also.
They need to beat Cincy and the Packers - if they do that they will be 7-3. Not a bad spot before they play in Dallas on Thanksgiving and then away in Arizona. They then finish with @Eagles, Panthers, Bears & Giants.
I'd fancy them to win their last 3 to get to 10 wins. And Considering Washington are in the W/C spot at the moment - I can't see who would get to 11 wins below them.

The Lions game this weekend will be a shoot out - high scoring I think - still don't trust the skin's defence - it will be close but the Redskins have a habit of winning the close games of late so here's hoping! - and if they win, we be level with the Cowboys but they have a game less played and have the advantage over us by having already beating us.

[Real ale Madrid]

Disaster this week - late, kids parties 😀 , but still going to take a shot on the following to keep it up:

Attachment 2479

[Real ale Madrid]

Here we go week 8 to try and fund a bit of Jazzing.

Attachment 2483

4 away teams all to cover, madness!