Discussion on a United or re-partitioned Ireland

[Gather round]

'Leave' campaigners are already resigning, dodging, squirming and pushing off the triggering of article 50, but is there any other alternative to actually going through with it? Can the government/parliament just ignore a referendum result, even if they don't actually want anything to do with it (as is so patently the case)? It would be audacious and there'd be a lot of ultra-unhappy Brexiters. I dread to think what the political climate - already somewhere between unpleasant and nasty - would be like if Brexiters were to realise they'd been had by a bunch of cowardly, careerist charlatans

Aye, the Govt can wheedle out of it- by giving Parliament (currently about 80-20 for Remain) the final say. Or by having another referendum, or a series, until the result changes. Remember, this is a country which has some flunkey in knickerbockers carrying an outsize gold-plated broomstick supposedly administering our legislature.You have to laugh etc.

Farage ducking out of accountability now too is farcical. He's bragging about "victory" yet article 50 hasn't even been triggered. If he had any credibility or conviction, he'd see this mess out and continue pressing on the matter to finality and then ensure stability, but, no, he's just another con-man

While taking it as read that Nige's politics make him a complete c*nt, there are other factors. Including poor health- he's survived cancer and a plane crash. Or the widely-rumored scandal about to break, whether sexual, financial or otherwise. And as most hacks agree, he's not a details guy. I wouldn't be sure they'll win many seats in the next election, regardless of who leads.

I'm not an economist, nor would I have any confidence remotely in discussing economics, so I can only leave that to others with a much greater degree of expertise and literacy in the sphere than myself; David McWilliams, for example (and as we discussed before), made a good economic case for unity in May (taking Brexit into account) and Michael Burke's analysis (in which he asserted that unity could benefit the island by €35.6 billion over eight years) has been accepted by other economists (unionist Newton Emerson, for example) as sound

I scraped through A-Level (the teacher had an unrelated nervous breakdown). Thing is, as you admit you're using McWilliams and co not to discuss the economics (or even politics) but really as a counter-factual history. The Republic is claimed to be economically vibrant, socially-cohesive, post-religious and the rest, all to get even better IF the new 40% extra population join up voluntarily and don't start squabbling. It's a big if. I thought Emerson's background was as a journalist?

But, essentially, nationalists/republicans have to be prepared to extend to unionists in a united Ireland what we expect for ourselves in the north at present. That all means, most likely, a new state, constitution (with emphasis on protection of rights), flag, symbolism, parity of esteem and institutions inclusive to all

One step at a time. What evidence is there that a majority of your fellow citizens want a new State, for fairly crucial example?

I'd like to think a progressive political case could also be made. The same-sex marriage referendum was a real statement of social progression in the south - a sure sign of total departure from any hint or notion of "Rome rule" (a fear of which has been ingrained in unionist thinking for decades) - and another may soon follow on repealing the eighth amendment in respect of the virtual ban on abortion. I think that sort of momentum could (hopefully) win over liberal unionists who are turned off by the DUP's extreme social conservatism

I'm guessing broad attitudes to sexuality, abortion etc. are pretty similar North and South- see that joint survey by RTE and BBC last October. The divide isn't by nationality, but age basically. The DUP and TUV have tried to muddy this with their posturing, but I'm not convinced. They may have been trying to maintain a tribal politics where, regardless of issue, unionist and nationalist are duty bound to take different sides.

Unionist voters (whatever their psyche*) must have realised that 'Rome Rule' is as dead as the dodo. How long is it since the Casey scandal, 20 years?

So, that considered, I don't think I personally could be accused of side-stepping the matter.

I don't think you've offered any real evidence of opinion in the South changing from ingrained partitionism. It's an essential first step which must precede a UI.

As an aside, I think the good-will extended to the NI team from fans of our own team during the Euros probably also helped build a few bridges or at least convinced many northern unionists that their identity wouldn't actually be under threat in a new Ireland. It would be welcomed, protected and embraced

I was in the South of France for the first week (couldn't budget for Paris so only met a handful of your fans). It's well-known that your fans travel in huge number and widely-assumed they'll be popular with the locals. Perhaps a surprise that ours generally acted likewise, with very few examples of them taking over Ma Nolan's or the James Joyce for a Sash-fest. All that said, I doubt a few lovable drunks from either camp overloading youtube with their antics will change the way many vote. That's just wish fulfilment*, isn't it?

* good BBC doc on Freud the other day. My favorite bit was Carl Gustav Jung calling out Siggi's obsession with sex- which is a bit like Willie McCrea accusing Ian Paisley of being too Free Presbyterian...

Yup, to be fair to the more-sensible UUP, they've been vocal about their concerns and the potential/foreseeable implications. I should have singled out the DUP, who are the significant/majority branch of political unionism at present (according to most recent voting anyway)

Yes, four Unionist parties contested (it was five with the hapless NI21 in 2014), but Arlene clearly has support right across Unionism, from the sink estates to rural hillbillies. Though that can change, it has before.

The DUP trying to stymie the north-south forum idea (like how they effectively blocked the presidential Rising dinner in Belfast a few months back) is just so churlish and that sort of petty, negative carry-on will only prove self-destructive further down the line

Disagree. It's just politicking, we all do it. There are already talking shops, who needs another? Party Marty immediately and predictably went into pained Statesman mode. As for the other thing, I'm assured Michael D and his camp followers didn't go hungry.

Also, I thought it was funny when Arlene (who I actually admire in an odd way, despite not agreeing with her on much, in contrast to the contempt in which I hold the likes of nincompoop Edwin Poots, wind-up Gregory Campbell or haughty Nelson McCausland) tweeted to wish us congratulations after our great victory over Italy

Good for Arlene. Naturally you had my support too, against Italy if not France. Just like youse were all cheering England against Slovakia when ye needed a favor

For sheer dimness I'd put Mancausla ahead of the others. Probably kicked in the head too often playing rugger at Oxbridge.

It is no longer ROI being asked to support this. It is the EU, and I would hope Europe would be willing to put their hands in their pocket to support reunification. Of the European capitals there would at least be ample sympathy in Berlin for putting a country back together again after partition

Sounds like more wishful thinking to me. Why would Germany or anybody else stump up cash for this? They haven't rushed to reunite Korea, Scandinavia or Yugoslavia last time I looked ;

On that note, do you guys really think the Westminster mandarin crew and hierarchy will actually let a misguided protest vote from provincial England undo all it threatens to ? Their place in the EU, the UK itself, etc etc. I can't see it happening and surely its just a matter of how gently this is news is broken to them, we have seen democracy used to further a career & win an election, and now we will see it being circumnavigated is my opinion, perhaps without it even going back to the people. No winners here

Don't know, honestly. Best ask Knickerbocker guy mentioned above.

[backstothewall]

Sounds like more wishful thinking to me. Why would Germany or anybody else stump up cash for this? They haven't rushed to reunite Korea, Scandinavia or Yugoslavia last time I looked

Not at all. Germany puts it's hand in it's pocket every single day to foster peace and stability in Europe. Europe has already shown that they are willing to pump billions into the political project of resolving the NI issue. The Irish bailout demonstrated that with the help of Europe the Irish economy can take a punch and come back stronger than ever.

Peaceful Irish reunification would be regarded as a huge good news story around the world, just as it was in Germany. I have no doubt that governments around the world would be keen to support it, no more so than in Europe.

This was always the case but the political effect of Brexit is that it makes it much easier to penetrate the NI electorate with that message.

[Eminence Grise]

Why would Germany or anybody else stump up cash for this?

Of all the EU countries you could have chosen, did you not think they might be familiar with a precedent of the EU funding the reunification of a country?

[Wolfman]

Ha ha. Actually think the Brits might cough up a fair bit, just to get of a basket case and millstone in one foul swoop.

[backstothewall]

The Germany example also proves it is possible to re-unite Ireland. It was possible in the 1990s to bring a partitioned country of 80,000,000 people together, despite the challenges of integrating 2 completely different systems, one an open western free-market economy, and the other a closed communist dictatorship with a literal wall around it.

The challenge in Ireland is obviously much easier. There are much less people and there is much less difference between the 2 jurisdictions, wrt the respective legal, economic, and political systems. There are also all the advantages of communication and technology offered by the modern world. It would undoubtedly be easier to roll back the partition of Ireland than it was to do the same in Germany 25 years ago

[backstothewall]

Sounds like more wishful thinking to me. Why would Germany or anybody else stump up cash for this? They haven't rushed to reunite Korea, Scandinavia or Yugoslavia last time I looked

This just occurred to me. A good concrete example of this sort of thing in the real world to support the points made above: Cyprus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprio...erendums,_2004

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-turkey-and-us

The great and good have been hammering away at Cypriot reunification for 15 odd years because there is just a sniff that it might be possible.

[Gather round]

Europe has already shown that they are willing to pump billions into the political project of resolving the NI issue

Have they? It's a big leap from regional development funding to redrawing international borders.
And anyway, isn't the EU project to create a superstate, not tinker with mini states?

Peaceful Irish reunification would be regarded as a huge good news story around the world, just as it was in Germany. I have no doubt that governments around the world would be keen to support it, no more so than in Europe

If it's peaceful (and uncontested), fine. If conversely it's contested (or even hailed less than enthusiastically), the Germans are likely to react as they do to to messy border disputes elsewhere: by not blowing their cash on it.

The Germany example also proves it is possible to re-unite Ireland

It doesn't. The 'proof' is only that Germany has been reunited. An equivalent in Ireland remains theoretical, as it has been for decades.

This just occurred to me. A good concrete example of this sort of thing in the real world to support the points made above: Cyprus

Er, it completely contradicts your point above- ie that it's much easier to reunite a smaller population than a larger. Cyprus is about nine or 10 times smaller than Ireland. Efforts to reunite have barely progressed in more than 40 years.

Of all the EU countries you could have chosen, did you not think they might be familiar with a precedent of the EU funding the reunification of a country?

I did, but the list of other notional reunifications ignored (or resisted) is rather longer...

[Wolfman]

More pompous waffle.

The EU will have to redraw a border if Scotland votes for independence and 'rejoins' the EU.
And of course Ireland could (and probably should) be reunited. All those nice people who told Irish/Catholic/foreign people to leave the North, would get the chance to practice what they preach!

[BonnieShels]

Villiers sacked... or jumped or whatever... Can't stand her but kinda concerned what the current Conservative and Unionist Party PM will replace her with.

EDIT: Here's the new NISEC/SOSNI...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Brokenshire

A rather apt surname.

[backstothewall]

Comments from both Kenny and Martin on this issue now. Interesting that the both said nothing for a week and then both said something within days of one another.

Idle speculation but I'm wondering if one of the other of them have maybe seen some polling data or something.

[BonnieShels]

Comments from both Kenny and Martin on this issue now. Interesting that the both said nothing for a week and then both said something within days of one another.

Idle speculation but I'm wondering if one of the other of them have maybe seen some polling data or something.

It would be interesting to think that is the case. But I think that it is merely Summer School talk.

However, it is interesting that a FG Taoiseach would bring it up at all. I'm heartened by it. Typical response from Paisley today anyway.

[bennocelt]

Comments from both Kenny and Martin on this issue now. Interesting that the both said nothing for a week and then both said something within days of one another.

Idle speculation but I'm wondering if one of the other of them have maybe seen some polling data or something.

Or something from the EU, as some sort of punishment for brexit to the UK?

[BonnieShels]

Unfortunately Enda clarified his remarks. Which is a shame because I like when Unionists go mad over nothing. It serves to show the pointlessness of some of their positions.

[Gather round]

Party Marty's right about Brokenshire. They could easily abolish the job or merge it with those in Cardiff and Edinburgh.

Enda O'Century is demob happy and on a wind-up before he goes. No surprise that Bonnie's impressed.

[Wolfman]

That and even Unionist politicians are getting Irish passports?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I found this an interesting piece: http://jasonomahony.ie/ill-take-a-un...heyll-concede/

The truth is that even if there is a hair-splitting majority of voters in Northern Ireland in favour of a united Ireland, unionists will still have a blocking veto on what the new Ireland will look like. They’ll have demands, and if we are to convince a million unionists that this is their country too, we’re going to have to concede big.
Just recall the indignation that something as minor (yes, it is) as re-joining the Commonwealth attracts.

That’s at the very bottom of concessions. Wait until we need a new national anthem, flag, name, or have to recognise in a new constitution how important the British sovereign is to a section of, yes, our people. Wait until we find the DUP demanding that the Northern Assembly has a veto over the removal of the 8th amendment.

Then there is the honours system. How do we feel about having a Lord as Taoiseach-stroke-Prime Minister of Ireland? What about the compulsory teaching of Irish in the north and Ulster Scots to our children in our schools, a language which, let’s be polite, most of the south doesn’t even accept is a language as much as the soundtrack to an episode of Rab C Nesbitt.

[backstothewall]

I found this an interesting piece: http://jasonomahony.ie/ill-take-a-un...heyll-concede/

I read it, but it didn't strike me as credible.

There would have to be concessions to Unionism, but the ones suggested seem a bit mad, or hyped up to be a lot worse than they are. Take the idea of British honours. Nationalism has always had more of a problem with the "British" bit than the "honours" bit. I've never yet heard a republican of any shade object to "Countess" Markievicz being afforded her full title. FF and FG would only be too pleased to be able to dole out patronage like Labour & the Tories do in England, if it wasn't for the fecking constitution getting in the way. Same with the commonwealth. Nice opportunity to have the ozzies and kiwis over for a state dinner and a bit of craic, and you can be damn sure we would be holding the Commonwealth games here at the first opportunity.

And as for Ulster-Scots. If it isn't taken seriously in the north it sure as hell won't be after partition is scrapped.

The North also brings things to the party. There are certain things where we really have our **** together. We are heavily reliant on public sector spending, but as a result we have some great public sector institutions. Would any sensible government attempt to give the HSE responsibility for the North, or expand the remit of the management structure of the NHS in NI to cover the 26 counties?

[backstothewall]

Plus. Who on earth would lead the no campaign. All politicians have an eye on history. Any fool could see that Alex Salmon will be on a shortbread tin one day and that whoever successfully led the opposition to this will be on a list with Dermot Macmurrough and Stephen Ireland.

[Gather round]

Broadly agree with BTW. That article just lists relative trivia. No-one will be forced to learn Ulster-Klingon, you haven't managed in 80 years to persuade people to speak Irish. Eddie Coll effectively killed it off with all that dancing round the maypole stuff when he was Taoiseach. There were more regular Polish speakers in the last census I think.

If a united Ireland happens, it'll most likely be as a result of the new English Nationalism rebuffing the Ulster Unionists who will have nowhere else to go. Southern politics will then have the problem of taking on an extra 40% population that they've kept at arm's length for nearly a century.

[backstothewall]

10 realistic concessions that could be made

1. March anywhere you like. We'll put it in the constitution. No parades commission or any of that nonsense. Just let the cops know what your at and don't act the ride by doing anything at rush hour on a Monday morning
2. New flag and anthem (Not Ireland Call but only because it's ****e)
3. We'll sign something that says they were the baddies and then never mention the Provos again.
4. Rather than folding the 6 counties into the Republic we'll keep Stormont with it's current powers and devolve the same powers to new assemblies for Munster, Leinster and Connacht.
5. The national parliament will meet in the old Senate chamber at Stormont. It's a purpose build building so why not use it
6. The BBC stay. We want them to stay anyway
7. We'll join the commonwealth
8. The Queen/King of England can be Head of State. Rather than having a President we'll elect a Lord Lieutenant to live in the Aras and exercise the current powers of the President
9. Londonderry. We won't promise to say it, but we will put it on the roadsigns. Even the ones in Donegal.
10. We'll all use northern Mr. Tayto