Group D - opponent watch!

[SkStu]

I just picture him as Bjork. A bit weird, a bit annoying, considered creative by some, and fond of wearing dresses that look like a swan but ultimately his best work was a long, long time ago.

[Charlie Darwin]

I picture him more as a concept than a physical form. An ethereal haze washing over us from above, telling tales of practice sessions in far-away indoor sports halls in a slightly condescending way, with a smiley face to make it all seem alright

[Crosby87]

Do you watch the Spice Network a lot, Tricky?

[tricky_colour]

Do you watch the Spice Network a lot, Tricky?

No never heard of it, is it any good?

[tricky_colour]

It's on ITV4 to be exact.

OH I see you were referring to the German Poland game!

I was going to say I'd be surprised they were showing the Ireland game.

[geysir]

I picture him more as a concept than a physical form. An ethereal haze washing over us from above, telling tales of practice sessions in far-away indoor sports halls in a slightly condescending way, with a smiley face to make it all seem alright

I have a problem with the use of 'slightly' in your description.

[DannyInvincible]

Is this saying that Scotland are the first team in Euro 2016 qualifying not to manage a shot on target during a game or is it that yesterday was the first time Scotland failed to register a shot on target this campaign: https://twitter.com/OptaJoe/status/639859823434182657

[DeLorean]

The former I'd assume, otherwise it really is a terrible stat.

[tricky_colour]

What chance of second play?
If we win out last match v Poland we go from 2 behind Poland to 1 ahead.
Then they have Scotland and Gibraltar which will give them 3 4 or 6 points
We have Germany and Georgia. which would give us 3 4 or 6 points.

16
14
12 <
11

19
17
15<
11

Now assuming we draw v german and scotland and poland draw

20
18
16<
12

Now we beat Poland 3 Points for Scotland and Germany

23 <Germany
19 <Ireland
18 <Poland
15 <Scotland

That is one example there are other ie us beating Germany and also Scotland beating Poland

So basically we must not assume we are playing for 3rd place.

[DeLorean]

For peace of mind we need to be four points ahead of Scotland going into the final round of games. Once we stay within three of Poland we could be set up for a nothing-to-lose crack at winning over there to secure second place, possibly on head-to-heads. The Scotland v Poland clash could be a very difficult one to know what's in our best interests. A Poland victory could guarantee us third but rule out any chance of second. Hopefully ourselves and Germany do the business Monday first though.

[Stuttgart88]

I'm not even going to think about the permutations because everything can change in each match night.

I thought it was interesting that the Scots' charter plane home from Georgia didn't show up so they were very late home and presumably that affected their recovery.

[DeLorean]

Not ideal. We flew home straight after the game the other night according to Tony O'Donoghue.

[DannyInvincible]

I thought it was interesting that the Scots' charter plane home from Georgia didn't show up so they were very late home and presumably that affected their recovery.

"Interesting"?...

Great news, you mean!

[DannyInvincible]

I'm not even going to think about the permutations because everything can change in each match night.

All various possibilities that would enable us to qualify are outlined here: http://www.the42.ie/what-ireland-nee...72602-Sep2015/

So, before we detail what exactly Ireland need to do to qualify, take a look at the remaining group games…

7 September

Poland v Gibraltar
Ireland v Georgia
Scotland v Germany

8 October

Georgia v Gibraltar
Ireland v Germany
Scotland v Poland

11 October

Germany v Georgia
Gibraltar v Scotland
Poland v Ireland

Without wishing to be too disrespectful to Gibraltar, it’s appearing seriously unlikely that they’ll pick up any points from this group on the basis of how they have performed so far. With that in mind, let’s imagine what the group will look like assuming the minnows lose their final three games.

Poland 17
Germany 16
Scotland 14
Ireland 12
Georgia 9
Gibraltar 0

Consequently, the following six matches will largely determine how this group pans out: Ireland v Georgia, Scotland v Germany, Ireland v Germany, Scotland v Poland, Germany v Georgia, Poland v Ireland.

So here’s how Ireland could qualify (assuming Gibraltar lose their remaining games)…

• For a top three spot, they could afford to lose to both Germany and Poland, provided they beat Georgia, and Scotland also lose to both Germany and Poland. That set of results would see them earn a playoff spot by finishing third.
• For a top two spot (which means guaranteed qualification for the Euros), Ireland could afford to lose to Germany provided they beat both Georgia and Poland. They would also be reliant on Scotland not losing at home to Poland, and picking up less than seven points in their final three games. It’s important to note that head-to-head records come into play ahead of away goals, so Ireland can’t afford to finish on the same number of points as Scotland, but they could finish level with Poland and qualify provided they beat them when the two sides meet in October.
• If Ireland beat Georgia, lose to Germany and draw with Poland, it would start to get a bit more nervy. It would mean Ireland could finish third at best, but they would also be relying on Scotland picking up no more than one point from their games against Poland and Germany.
• If Ireland beat Georgia, draw with Germany and draw with Poland, they would again have to settle for third at best, while Scotland could overtake them by beating either Poland or Germany.
• In the highly unlikely scenario that Ireland win all three of their remaining games, they would be guaranteed a top-two spot and would finish first if Germany drop points against either Georgia or Scotland.
• If Ireland lose to Georgia, they would need an absolute minimum of three points against Poland and Germany, which would require the Boys in Green having to do what they have managed just twice in the past 14 years — beating a team ranked above them in a competitive fixture over 90 minutes. Should they pick up just three points, they would also be relying on Scotland losing against both Germany and Poland.
• If Ireland draw with Georgia, they could finish third with a minimum of two points from the games against Poland and Germany, provided Scotland lose both their matches against the same two teams.

To put all of this in simple terms, Ireland need to equal or better Scotland’s results in the final three sets of fixtures to be effectively guaranteed a top three spot (assuming Georgia don’t take seven points or more from their final three games, which could potentially complicate matters). Given that one of Scotland’s games is Gibraltar, Ireland’s task is not as easy as it initially sounds, and means the Boys in Green almost certainly need at least one win from their final three games to have any hope of finishing in the top three.

[BonnieShels]

So basically. Beat f##ckin' Georgia.

[punkrocket]

In all likelihood the north should finally make it through to a major tournament if not tonight then soon enough.
However, it being a funny old game and all is it possible that should both teams make it to/have to settle for the playoffs that a north v south showdown could possibly be on or would they be kept apart?

[Stuttgart88]

Have we any chance of getting best placed third team? Sky said earlier that'd also secure a direct qualification spot.

[The Fly]

In all likelihood the north should finally make it through to a major tournament if not tonight then soon enough.
However, it being a funny old game and all is it possible that should both teams make it to/have to settle for the playoffs that a north v south showdown could possibly be on or would they be kept apart?

If Norn Iron qualify and we don't, I'll be sick.

[punkrocket]

Ah come on I used a whole cliché.
It would be hard to take all right but it's a distinct possibility. Imagine losing the play off though.

[DeLorean]

Have we any chance of getting best placed third team? Sky said earlier that'd also secure a direct qualification spot.

Ukraine, Switzerland and Croatia all have 15 points. We only have 12 and I presume the 6 against Gibraltar are not recognised. I don't know how many they have got against the lowest ranked side but the maximum is obviously 6 so we've a bit of catching up to do. I reckon if we do catch their points totals we'll have secured second place anyway so it won't matter.