Election 2011 - General

[Mr A]

Yeah, the major message from this byelection is that FF are in trouble and we knew that anyway. You'd wonder how many SF votes were 'on loan' to make sure that FF were beaten, especially given that their candidate was perceived to have a chance.

The minor message (which could become major later) is that SF may be now transfer friendly for the first time.. but we'll have to see how that plays out.

[Mr A]

The results of the third count are:

Pearse Doherty (SF) +1452 = 15,188
Brian Ó'Domhall (FF) +278 = 7,636
Barry O'Neill (FG) +871 = 7,313
Thomas Pringle (Ind) +272 = 3,763

Non Transferrable +502 = 524

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/i...#ixzz16PZljC5c

Doherty mops up plenty of Labour transfers. But then most of these people are not usually Labour voters so not sure this will continue nationwide (although of course Labour will have quite a few new voters at next election judging by polls + this result). FF pick up very few.

Pringle's votes could elect Doherty. I hope they don't as I want to look at more transfer patterns

If you didn't know which parties were which but new this was Donegal, you'd probably assume that SF and FF were swapped.

[Kingdom]

MR A, would this be considered a decent result by Barry O'Neill, considering this is traditionally a FF area and considering the overwhelming support Doherty was going to receive as a result of his court action to initiate the bye-election?

[Mr A]

Usually I'd say FG should take a byelection there as the government usually loses them and FG're the next biggest party, but the circumstances around this one mean it's different. Doherty is a strong candidate and very high profile. He was seen as the man to knock out FF and therefore people may have backed him to ensure that happened. It's a pity in a way as I think he's a pretty good guy.

No doubt this is a superb result for SF though, and FG will be a bit disappointed.

[BonnieShels]

What has being transfer friendly got to do with getting less first preference votes in an election where their main rival plummets?

Normal rules in bye-elections don't apply. And bye-elections in Donegal are never gonna be normal. Add into the mill how this election was called and the state of the State and there are very few normal parameters left to measure this one on.
Like Mr A says in posts further not only was Doherty a dead cert for the seat but no doubt there were a lot of loan votes out there and I'm sure a fair few normal FG voters may have voted for him on an ABFF plan. I think that Ó Domhnall's result is actually shocking and makes me shudder. The real losers here were Labour but again I don't think you can read very much into it.

Coughlan's comments though make ya think though... "It was a disappointing result for FF but Pearse Doherty's previous campaigns had given him an advantage." WTF does that actually mean? She also complained that he had an advantage as a result of the court case. But would anyone care to ask Mary why that court case was brought?

The Dáil majority is now down to 2.

Meaning that Michael Lowry and The Mutant are in charge. Lord save us.

[John83]

Meaning that Michael Lowry and The Mutant are in charge. Lord save us.

These would be the folks who said they're not voting for the budget? Fun times.

[BonnieShels]

These would be the folks who said they're not voting for the budget? Fun times.

And don't forget Lowry won't vote for the budget but it's the patriotic duty, according to him for FG and LAB to do so.

Ceann Comhairle has a casting vote.

[John83]

And don't forget Lowry won't vote for the budget but it's the patriotic duty, according to him for FG and LAB to do so.

Ceann Comhairle has a casting vote.

Yeah, I remember that. If life was fair, that quote would be enough to put a firing squad on standby.

CC isn't counted in that majority of 2, no? Any rumours of a backbencher or three maybe breaking the government? I can just see some slimy little ******* with a safe local seat preparing for life after FF that way.

[BonnieShels]

With a bit of luck that will happen. CC's vote is not included afaik.

[Schumi]

From what FG guys were saying this week, I get the impression that they'll abstain to let the budget go through.

[BonnieShels]

I got that sinking feeling too. the Doctor came out and backed the 4 year plan. FG should steer clear of anything that could be remotely controversial.
they can always bring in a budget themselves. With a gigantic majority it should be fine.

[Comic Book Guy]

These would be the folks who said they're not voting for the budget? Fun times.

If the panel on Vincent Browne last Tuesday night are to be believed, I know it's a big if, the real level of our debt could be of the order of 340 billion, then a budget designed to cut 15 billion over 4 years won't make much odds to this debt, only that it will cause untold social misery for years to come.

It seems we are well and truly in default territory here. The longer that collection of f****ts cling on to power the worse it will be. I believe if we are to have any chance for this country for future generations then we as a nation have to have our own version of de-nazification i.e rid the country of the malign influence of FF which has leached down into all walks of Irish life. Easier said than done I know but once they are out of power I hope that process can begin, some hope I know.

[mypost]

Doherty wins as expected, which means SF now hasve one less seat than the Greens, and also that they have nobody from their party standing in the Seanad for the remainder of the current term.

[culloty82]

SF now planning to form a voting bloc with Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan for the purpose of tabling their no-confidence motion, but given the Budget effectively serves the same purpose, there doesn't seem to be as much point as there did last week.

[bennocelt]

It seems we are well and truly in default territory here. The longer that collection of f****ts cling on to power the worse it will be. I believe if we are to have any chance for this country for future generations then we as a nation have to have our own version of de-nazification i.e rid the country of the malign influence of FF which has leached down into all walks of Irish life. Easier said than done I know but once they are out of power I hope that process can begin, some hope I know.

Agree
http://www.independent.ie/national-n...e-2439371.html
I weep sometimes for Ireland, really do!

[John83]

If the panel on Vincent Browne last Tuesday night are to be believed, I know it's a big if, the real level of our debt could be of the order of 340 billion, then a budget designed to cut 15 billion over 4 years won't make much odds to this debt, only that it will cause untold social misery for years to come.

Surely the budget would be no better even if we were to default? We're couldn't possibly be able to start paying off the loans for a few years.

[dahamsta]

I have another question. If it wasn't for the oxygen the media is giving Lowry at the moment, I probably wouldn't have been aware of the fact he was back in the Dail. My question is: Who voted for this guy? He's proven to be both corrupt and a tax dodger! Who thinks it's ok to have someone that comfortable with flouting the laws representing them?

[osarusan]

Who thinks it's ok to have someone that comfortable with flouting the laws representing them?

Garret Fitzgerald had a good article in the Irish Times not so long ago noting that among a certain element of the electorate, evidence of corruption seems to be a prerequisite for election.

To answer your question, 12,919 people in Tipperary gave him their first preference vote. His work for the GAA twenty years ago is probably of more importance to them than the country in general.

[Dodge]

Dermot Ahern isn't standing in the next election. granted he's not 100% health wise but it will save the embaressment of Adams out polling him

[dahamsta]

Ah, I didn't realise he was Louth, that makes a lot of sense.

Thanks for that osarusan. They're ok with him stealing their money then?