2009 attendances

[SkStu]

It is (doing great maths explaining today!).

Take 10 teams with averages of 1500, and 2 teams with averages of 500. Overall average - 1333. Those bottom two teams get relegated, so we now have 10 teams, all of whom suffer a drop to 1400. New average - 1400. Premier Division crowd is up although every team has had a decline. So saying the Premier Division crowd will probably increase is irrelevant, as was the point CT was kind of making (noting crowds will be up because us and Cobh are gone).

QED.

surely the fairest way for comparisons sake, working off the fact that there is a drop in the number of teams, is to take a mean for the previous year based on ten teams.

In other words, take the top team and bottom teams averages out of the original equation and work off the remaining 10 teams, giving an average of 1400.

The remaining ten teams the following season attendance averages drop to 1400 meaning no real loss in attendance. And, of course, if attendances stabilise there is an actual increase.

To me, that would make more sense than the simplistic formula you have suggested Stu.

edit: (but, of course, im no Carol Vorderman either!!)

[pineapple stu]

surely the fairest way for comparisons sake, working off the fact that there is a drop in the number of teams, is to take a mean for the previous year based on ten teams.

The fairest way is to ignore the division average and work off team averages. Do you care if the division average is down 100 people if your gates are up 200? That's why I show the division average as an afterthought on the summary post, but the main bit of it is club averages.

[SkStu]

The fairest way is to ignore the division average and work off team averages. Do you care if the division average is down 100 people if your gates are up 200?

i agree, of course, from a clubs perspective. But the FAI will only be interested in the division average.

[pineapple stu]

They should be interested then in the combined average of the Premier and First Divisions, which (until last year anyway, and even then only in theory) was a closed set of the same 22 teams. That's a fair comparison.

Course, if they want to issue a press release saying that crowds are up 10% in the Premier but then not mention that it's because the two smallest clubs got relegated, fire ahead. Bit of good news never hurt, even if it is nonsense.

[dcfcsteve]

So numbers up around 50%. FAI must be doing a great job.

Up around 50% versus what ?

Surely not versus opening weekend of last season - which is all you can compare it with...

[pineapple stu]

Pushing five years on the board and you still haven't cottoned on to sarcasm yet?!

[pete]

Up around 50% versus what ?

Surely not versus opening weekend of last season - which is all you can compare it with...

You'll never get a job in the FAI!

Even Pineapple passed on that juicey bait

[Mr A]

(b) there's more than the Premier Division.

Outrageous statement! There's the premier and nothing else. The sooner this messy business of promotion and relegation is dispensed with and a 6 team premier is formed the sooner Irish Senior football will realise its true potential.

[John83]

Outrageous statement! There's the premier and nothing else. The sooner this messy business of promotion and relegation is dispensed with and a 6 team premier is formed the sooner Irish Senior football will realise its true potential.

Six team? Everyone knows that the only way forward is a Premier division consisting of Bohs, Derry, Cork and Rovers playing each other twelve times a season.

[Rovers fan]

What u on about man?

[dcfcsteve]

Pushing five years on the board and you still haven't cottoned on to sarcasm yet?!

It's a twin-pack offering with you getting a personality....

[dcfcsteve]

Take 10 teams with averages of 1500, and 2 teams with averages of 500. Overall average - 1333. Those bottom two teams get relegated, so we now have 10 teams, all of whom suffer a drop to 1400.

How does this work ? If we're down to 10 teams, each of which have an average of 1,500, then that makes the league-wide average 1,500 - not 1,400

[Mr A]

The point is that although every one of the ten teams has dropped 100 of their crowd, the average for the top league has increased because two teams with lower crowds went down.

So the premier division average can be pretty meaningless.

Personally I think the league wide average is much more important.

[pineapple stu]

How does this work ? If we're down to 10 teams, each of which have an average of 1,500, then that makes the league-wide average 1,500 - not 1,400

Did you actually read my post?

[oriel]

I'd say we'll probably have the lowest attendance in the PD this year.
Rovers,Cork,Derry and Dundalk will probably have the best crowds come the end of the year,followed by Bohs,Pats and Drogheda.
Then you got Sligo and Galway who will be around the same as each other.
Then we'll be there behind sligo and galway

I think Cork still have the potential to be the highest crowd, followed by Derry, their one team* large populations will have helped - maybe Bray wont finish last in attendances, i`d say this place will be reserved for the side who spends most time in that position. It may not be yourselves.

Also you made a good point earlier about the ten team lge, most if not all home games are now decent crowd pullers, for eg and I dont mean any offence with this, only Bray + Galway (travel distance would be a huge factor for away support) and possibly Sligo - although I`m not sure with them, would be the only games that Dundalk might struggle to get a really decent big crowd up to see. All others are definite crowd pullers.

It certainly beats playing first div sides with practically zero away support.

Then again form is the key in all of this, as mentioned many times on here before, Irish fans are so fickle and will drop their own team at the slightest sign of any poor results compared to a mid table Lge 2 side in the UK for eg.


*Institue hardly count

Stu - when do you think you can pull up week one figs, has all the usual bikering ended for this week ?

[pineapple stu]

Stu - when do you think you can pull up week one figs, has all the usual bikering ended for this week ?

As per earlier in the thread, I wasn't going to bother until after week 2 on the basis that we can all read.

I'll pull together the estimate ranges now sure, and draw some "conclusions" from that. That should re-start the bickering.

By popular demand so -

PREMIER DIVISION
Bohs - N/A (2008 - 1,993; 2007 - 1,924; 2006 - 1,463; 2005 - 1,976; 2004 - 2,340) (missing Cork 2)
Bray - 2,800 (1,106; 1,200; 1,027; 1,550; 818 FD) (Range for the game of 2500 to 4000)
Cork - N/A (3,142; 2,897; 2,941; 3,644; 4,033)
Derry - 3,100 (3,363; 2,614; 3,229; 2,698; 1,672) (missing Cobh 2)
Drogheda - N/A (1,631; 1,919; 1,751; 1,682; 1,554) (missing Pat's 2)
Dundalk - 4,500 (1,459 FD; 1,406 FD; 1,078 FD; 474 FD; 591 FD) (Have always taken the figure from their website, for right or wrong)
Galway - N/A (1,393; 2,199; 1,148 FD; 566 FD; 571 FD)
Pat's - 2,300 (1,795; 1,910; 1,342; 1,599; 1,882) (missing Cork 2, Derry 2 and Galway 2)
Rovers - N/A (1,468; 1,715; 1,089 FD; 1,539; 1,349)
Sligo - 2,000 (1,960; 1,448; 1,806; 1,794 FD; 781 FD) (Range of 1700 to 2300)

FIRST DIVISION
Athlone - N/A (387; 670; 421; 316; 291)
Harps - N/A (1,607 PD; 1,164; 428; 1,347 PD; 1,106)
Kildare - 353 (241; 243; 265; 186; 298)
Limerick - N/A (517; 670; 364; 669; 188)
Longford - 600 (406; 885 PD; 681 PD; 1,004 PD; 1,131 PD)
Mervue - 650 (N/A)
Monaghan - N/A (177; 292; 204; 183; 182)
Shels - 1,077 (986; 888; 1,690 PD; 1,949 PD; 2,158 PD)
Sporting Fingal - N/A (688)
UCD - 220 (546 PD; 663 PD; 546 PD; 653 PD; 306)
Waterford - 620 (670; 1,181 PD; 915 PD; 1,513 PD; 1,753 PD)
Wexford - N/A (767; 810)

Premier Division average - 2,940 (1,746; 1,687; 1,535; 1,759; 1,853)
First Division average - 587 (641; 722; 570; 520; 512)

Overall average - 1,656 (1,221; 1,235; 1,070; 1,195; 1,218)

[dcfcsteve]

Did you actually read my post?

Yes. Any danger of a proper response.....?

[John83]

Yes. Any danger of a proper response.....?

Clearly the numbers are too big for you to deal with.

Imagine a division with two teams, Derry and UCD, with an average crowd of 1800 or so. UCD get relegated, Cork replacing them. The next year, the crowd average is 1801. Yay! The division average is up! Everything is better forevermore. All praise to the FAI!

[pineapple stu]

Yes. Any danger of a proper response.....?

It's in my post steve. Seriously, read it. You misquoted it. It's remedial level maths; nothing more.

Edit - OK, I'll bite.

Take 10 teams with averages of 1500, and 2 teams with averages of 500. Overall average - 1333. Those bottom two teams get relegated, so we now have 10 teams, all of whom suffer a drop to 1400.

How does this work ? If we're down to 10 teams, each of which have an average of 1,500, then that makes the league-wide average 1,500 - not 1,400

Now. There's the two posts side by side for you. You said "If we're down to ten teams, each of which have an average of 1500". I, however, in my ten-team model noted explicitly that the ten teams "all [...] suffer a drop to 1400" for this example.

Do you see how reading it might have helped?

[4 in a row]

Rovers had 3,500 at the 1st game in Tallaght