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Yeah, the major message from this byelection is that FF are in trouble and we knew that anyway. You'd wonder how many SF votes were 'on loan' to make sure that FF were beaten, especially given that their candidate was perceived to have a chance.
The minor message (which could become major later) is that SF may be now transfer friendly for the first time.. but we'll have to see how that plays out.
Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/i...#ixzz16PZljC5cQuote:
The results of the third count are:
Pearse Doherty (SF) +1452 = 15,188
Brian Ó'Domhall (FF) +278 = 7,636
Barry O'Neill (FG) +871 = 7,313
Thomas Pringle (Ind) +272 = 3,763
Non Transferrable +502 = 524
Doherty mops up plenty of Labour transfers. But then most of these people are not usually Labour voters so not sure this will continue nationwide (although of course Labour will have quite a few new voters at next election judging by polls + this result). FF pick up very few.
Pringle's votes could elect Doherty. I hope they don't as I want to look at more transfer patterns :)
If you didn't know which parties were which but new this was Donegal, you'd probably assume that SF and FF were swapped.
MR A, would this be considered a decent result by Barry O'Neill, considering this is traditionally a FF area and considering the overwhelming support Doherty was going to receive as a result of his court action to initiate the bye-election?
Usually I'd say FG should take a byelection there as the government usually loses them and FG're the next biggest party, but the circumstances around this one mean it's different. Doherty is a strong candidate and very high profile. He was seen as the man to knock out FF and therefore people may have backed him to ensure that happened. It's a pity in a way as I think he's a pretty good guy.
No doubt this is a superb result for SF though, and FG will be a bit disappointed.
Normal rules in bye-elections don't apply. And bye-elections in Donegal are never gonna be normal. Add into the mill how this election was called and the state of the State and there are very few normal parameters left to measure this one on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dodge
Like Mr A says in posts further not only was Doherty a dead cert for the seat but no doubt there were a lot of loan votes out there and I'm sure a fair few normal FG voters may have voted for him on an ABFF plan. I think that Ó Domhnall's result is actually shocking and makes me shudder. The real losers here were Labour but again I don't think you can read very much into it.
Coughlan's comments though make ya think though... "It was a disappointing result for FF but Pearse Doherty's previous campaigns had given him an advantage." WTF does that actually mean? She also complained that he had an advantage as a result of the court case. But would anyone care to ask Mary why that court case was brought?
The Dáil majority is now down to 2.
Meaning that Michael Lowry and The Mutant are in charge. Lord save us.
These would be the folks who said they're not voting for the budget? Fun times.Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
And don't forget Lowry won't vote for the budget but it's the patriotic duty, according to him for FG and LAB to do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
Ceann Comhairle has a casting vote.
Yeah, I remember that. If life was fair, that quote would be enough to put a firing squad on standby.Quote:
Originally Posted by BonnieShels
CC isn't counted in that majority of 2, no? Any rumours of a backbencher or three maybe breaking the government? I can just see some slimy little ******* with a safe local seat preparing for life after FF that way.
With a bit of luck that will happen. CC's vote is not included afaik.
From what FG guys were saying this week, I get the impression that they'll abstain to let the budget go through.
I got that sinking feeling too. the Doctor came out and backed the 4 year plan. FG should steer clear of anything that could be remotely controversial.
they can always bring in a budget themselves. With a gigantic majority it should be fine.
If the panel on Vincent Browne last Tuesday night are to be believed, I know it's a big if, the real level of our debt could be of the order of 340 billion, then a budget designed to cut 15 billion over 4 years won't make much odds to this debt, only that it will cause untold social misery for years to come.Quote:
Originally Posted by John83
It seems we are well and truly in default territory here. The longer that collection of f****ts cling on to power the worse it will be. I believe if we are to have any chance for this country for future generations then we as a nation have to have our own version of de-nazification i.e rid the country of the malign influence of FF which has leached down into all walks of Irish life. Easier said than done I know but once they are out of power I hope that process can begin, some hope I know.
Doherty wins as expected, which means SF now hasve one less seat than the Greens, and also that they have nobody from their party standing in the Seanad for the remainder of the current term.
SF now planning to form a voting bloc with Finian McGrath and Maureen O'Sullivan for the purpose of tabling their no-confidence motion, but given the Budget effectively serves the same purpose, there doesn't seem to be as much point as there did last week.
AgreeQuote:
Originally Posted by Comic Book Guy
http://www.independent.ie/national-n...e-2439371.html
I weep sometimes for Ireland, really do!
:eek: Surely the budget would be no better even if we were to default? We're couldn't possibly be able to start paying off the loans for a few years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Comic Book Guy
I have another question. If it wasn't for the oxygen the media is giving Lowry at the moment, I probably wouldn't have been aware of the fact he was back in the Dail. My question is: Who voted for this guy? He's proven to be both corrupt and a tax dodger! Who thinks it's ok to have someone that comfortable with flouting the laws representing them?
Garret Fitzgerald had a good article in the Irish Times not so long ago noting that among a certain element of the electorate, evidence of corruption seems to be a prerequisite for election.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
To answer your question, 12,919 people in Tipperary gave him their first preference vote. His work for the GAA twenty years ago is probably of more importance to them than the country in general.
Dermot Ahern isn't standing in the next election. granted he's not 100% health wise but it will save the embaressment of Adams out polling him
Ah, I didn't realise he was Louth, that makes a lot of sense.
Thanks for that osarusan. They're ok with him stealing their money then? ;)
Lowry's Tipp, it's bad enough on the border as it is!Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
I am just suggesting that thanks to our mentality, alot of Irish admire the cute hoor and fella who gets things done. In any other country Bertie Ahern would be in jail, his former cellmate Haughey laid to rest in a prison graveyard. Instead they just retain their earning power.
I don't think Adams would poll him out though. Adams would get the SF vote in louth but probably nothing else from anywhere else in the county. alot of locals in louth dissappointed that adams is not local and would not stand for local issues or local interests. There is also the questions surrounding his brother, his IRA past, that would turn moderate voters off him. I thought tomas sharkey would of been a better SF candidate, as he was hi jacking the save the louth hospital campaign
With the Louth Hospital amongst others being the biggest issue in dlk, ahern might of struggled but he would of pulled enough ff from around louth to be seen comfortably over the line.
Louth is looking interesting though. O'Dowd (FG) will get in by his drogheda vote. Mid Louth will probably vote Mairead Mcguinnes (fg), Seamus kirk (ff) will be returned as ceann comhairle & they reckon sean gallagher is going to run on a ff ticket(probably will not get in as he isn't local), I don't think labour have a strong candidate, so the last seat will be an FF candidate, Adams, labour candidate. Mark Deary of the greens would be my pref but i doubt he will get enough to challenge for a seat. I reckon FF will still have enough hardcore and secret voters to have another FF in
One of the more fundamental aspects of standing in a constituency should be, that you have some connection with the constituency. I've no doubt he'll be elected, but what is Adams' specific connection with Louth?Quote:
Originally Posted by jinxy lilywhite
The Lowry issue is strange alright. Former FG TD, now delaying them forming a new government by telling them to vote for the budget, rather than do it himself. Mad.
It's to do with proximity to the North, as in An Lu.
Once the 10th county of Ulaidh....no way would things have worked out as they did, if they'd kept them in!
Totally agree - how would a TD know where the potholes are to get fixed without that local knowledge, never mind knowing where to deliver the passports...Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
Bunkers and silos, diesel, safe houses...Quote:
Originally Posted by mypost
There are 33,000 tax dodging millionairs with a net worth of €121 billion euro. Going after public sector workers and social welfare recipients, who both took a hit last year is just plain wrong. The fact that Shell is still being allowed to remove natural resources worth €450 billion euro from our territory is also wrong. There is plenty of wealth around to sort out the country. These austerity measures are part of the Friedmanite agenda that has dominated mainstream economics for decades. What we are facing in terms of economic measures is a war on the working and middle class by big business sponsored governments who have been carrying out the transfer of wealth from working people to the rich. What we're facing is chicago school measures that were first implemented in Chile under Pinochet and led to skyrocketing inflation and mass unemployment. Don't buy the lie that we can't afford not to make cuts.
Pinochet was reckoned to be as thick as a brick when it came to economic matters, but even he kept the copper mines under State control.
That policy in regards to valuable State assets would not be tolerated by the EU and Ireland. They would set out with gusto to scuttle a perfectly healthy State company, in the name of competitive openness and efficiency.
Yeah, the only reason the country didn't go under altogether. Friedmans disciples were advising him from day one so it's surprising they kept that public. Maybe they knew they were peddling a great steaming pile of sh*te after all.Quote:
Originally Posted by geysir
Got evidence for that? According to Brendas Burgess of AAM, just 359 people earning over 250k paid 0-20% of tax last year. Now I'm not a fan of Brendan's opinions on taxation, by any stretch of the imagination, but he does post data to support his assertion.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
Cork IT Economics lecturer Tom O'ConnorQuote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
But the fundamentals of politics is all about local issues being brought to the national agenda. it is the same all over the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by Macy
I don't think Adams will get in. That is my gut feeling.
Though all the border constiteuncies do have a SF TD now.
I think perhaps you're reading that article slightly different to me. To me, Tom hasn't gone anywhere near suggesting that those millionaires are dodging tax, he's simply suggesting that they should be paying more tax. Big, big difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
There's very little doubt that tax avoidance in Ireland is way too easy, but nearly all of us do it on some level. My company pays me a (very, very) small pension that would cost me more if I did it personally, and I check my entitlements every year and take advantage of them.
Personally, I don't consider that tax avoidance; and equally personally, I couldn't afford it any other way. However the wealthy say exactly the same thing, because they have much higher expenses. They also have expensive accountants who can a) find more loopholes, and b) lobby for even more loopholes.
That still doesn't make them tax dodgers though. Tax avoiders maybe. If you have a problem with it, lobby your TD to get the loopholes closed. Unfortunately that's how it works in Ireland.
adam
From the article Bohspartisan linked to:
This is the part I find galling (if true)
Quote:
These 33,000 millionaires have been the main beneficiaries of about €20bn in tax expenditures by the state since 2005 through various means: tax relief on pensions, which at one point was over €1m; a myriad of property tax reliefs; reliefs on private nursing homes and hospitals; capital allowances; the PRSI ceiling; and a whole raft of others.
In fact Dr Michael Collins, a Trinity based Economist and member of the Commission on taxation, reiterated the view on 17 October this year that there are still 110 of these so called "loop holes" in place, costing the exchequer €11bn per annum.
I'd be very suprised if it wasn't. The fact remains that they're not doing anything wrong by availing of them. It could be argued that morally they should ignore them and just pay the taxes, but on one level that would be like us paying full whack on the bins, rent, mortgage, etc. Of course they can afford it better than we can, but they have as much "right" to those reliefs as we do. The answer is to revoke the spurious ones, pure and simple.
Oh I know, I'm not galled by those availing of them, as I'd expect no less (or no more?) of them. i'm galled by those allowing them to continue, as after all the comments about everybody taking a hit, something like this one pops up. you'd hope that the EU/IMF, with a fine-tooth comb through our finances, would notice something like this.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
Okay, maybe I should have qualified that I didn't mean they were doing something illegal, but isn't dodging something just a more pro-active way of avoiding something? These guys haven't spent years making donations to the main political parties for nothing. They do it because they get to call the major policy shots, the ones you most certainly won't find in any manifesto (apart from the PDs and look what happened to them) because people don't want them. Me lobbying my TD on this matter is the equivelant of throwing a boomerang into the grand canyon and expecting it to come back. When money controls politics it controls what is legal and what is not and even when something is illegal money can find a way around it. Obviously not a level playing field. It's also virtually impossible for PAYE worker to avoid tax for example. Maybe we could avoid VAT by shoplifting but you'll find you get a harsher hand than the lads who slip a few quid to "the party".Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
Here's an interesting little video about money and the US political system that is food for thought...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVN8zADDvEg&feature=sub
That's what "dodge" means, of course, but the term "tax dodger" is generally used to signify tax evasion rather than tax avoidance. The latter is morally questionable, the former is illegal and somewhat frowned upon by the Revenue. If you accuse someone of being a tax dodger - in particular if they're one of the aforementioned millionaires - you'd likely find yourself in court defending yourself against a defamation claim.Quote:
Originally Posted by BohsPartisan
Sorry, but I have the same opinions on that as I do on not voting, starting with the simplistic:Quote:
Me lobbying my TD on this matter is the equivelant of throwing a boomerang into the grand canyon and expecting it to come back.
- If you're not in, you can't win.
- If you're not in, you have no right to complain.
- If you're not it, I have no interest in listening to you.
- If you're not in, you're part of the problem.
I could go on, but that's generally how I feel about non-voters, non-lobbyers. It takes about as much energy to send an email, fax or letter to all of your representives as it does to vote, which is pretty much feck all. Make a list after the election, make up a template, off you go. Rant and rave to your heart's content, most of the time they'll actually reply.
I can understand your cynicism, but that's just not true. Money certainly has an enormous part to play, but if it was the be-all and end-all, you wouldn't see them tripping over themselves with all the u-turns. Of course the fact that they're as willing to jump because of public opinion is another source of cynicism, but that's politics for you...Quote:
When money controls politics
You avoid tax exactly the way they do when you apply for tax relief on your bins, your rent, your mortgage, your child that lives with his mammy, etc, etc. As I said earlier, they just have more opportunities, and accountants to find them.Quote:
It's also virtually impossible for PAYE worker to avoid tax for example.
As osarusan says, closing the loopholes is the answer. And lobbying your representatives is the only way you, personally, have of helping to affect that change. If you don't, they will assume you're a-ok with them.
No offense, but I'm not going to watch the video. While I accept that we've replicated the excesses of America here, this remains a completely different country with completely different dynamics.
adam
Tax loopholes are deliberate tax avoidance schemes, often brought in for some supposedly beneficial purpose for society. Does society ever receive benefit more than a small % of the benefit that is gained by the financial elite?
There is also nothing wrong done when the government decides that bondholder debt becomes sovereign debt. The government is constitutionally entitled to make that decision. We don't blame the bondholders for saying yes. They would be pretty stupid if they decided voluntarily to take a 50% cut.
Afaic, the same morale is used to justify the existence of legal tax loopholes for the financial elite/corporations, as is used to justify the bailing out the bondholders. That morale is, the public interest is served by serving the vast needs of the financial elite as a priority, even to the point of flogging the public.
Again proves that there is one law for them, one for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by dahamsta
Replying is one thing (and it isn't actually them who reply, don't cod yourself) acting is another. What they'll do is send one of their stack's of pre-prepared representations to a government department where a civil servant of middlemanagement grade will draft a standard reply on why x,y or z can't be done or what long drawn out process is going on to make it happen. The letter will go through a few higher hands to check and it will be signed off on by the minister. Or one of the constituency workers will write back to you. Nothing will happen though (unless it's a query about potholes or rough kids hanging around on the corner)Quote:
Sorry, but I have the same opinions on that as I do on not voting, starting with the simplistic:
- If you're not in, you can't win.
- If you're not in, you have no right to complain.
- If you're not it, I have no interest in listening to you.
- If you're not in, you're part of the problem.
I could go on, but that's generally how I feel about non-voters, non-lobbyers. It takes about as much energy to send an email, fax or letter to all of your representives as it does to vote, which is pretty much feck all. Make a list after the election, make up a template, off you go. Rant and rave to your heart's content, most of the time they'll actually reply.
Don't see them jumping due to public opinion right now on austerity or on resigning from government before the budget. For one thing, a lot of the issues they vacilate on are the non economic ones, for another not all rich people have the same interests on every single issue so you will get conflicted policy making. The reason I posted the video is it doesn't give a simplistic "they give money, get what they want" explanation.Quote:
I can understand your cynicism, but that's just not true. Money certainly has an enormous part to play, but if it was the be-all and end-all, you wouldn't see them tripping over themselves with all the u-turns. Of course the fact that they're as willing to jump because of public opinion is another source of cynicism, but that's politics for you...
I get your point but we're really talking a miniscule amount for those things compared to what the wealthy get away with.Quote:
You avoid tax exactly the way they do when you apply for tax relief on your bins, your rent, your mortgage, your child that lives with his mammy, etc, etc. As I said earlier, they just have more opportunities, and accountants to find them.