General Election 2020

[sbgawa]

Mary Lou imploded.
Wouldn't answer the question when repeatedly asked why she wouldn't support the special criminal court.
Did'nt seem able to explain her economic policies and how they would be funded.
Finally Mirriam O Callaghan read out the exact words used by the Shin Fein guy up North saying the guy who was murdered by the IRA (PAul Quinn) and she stuttered and stumbled and said that wasn't her recollection .
Car crash stuff but i wonder will it change anything

[Real ale Madrid]

Mary Lou imploded.
Wouldn't answer the question when repeatedly asked why she wouldn't support the special criminal court.
Did'nt seem able to explain her economic policies and how they would be funded.
Finally Mirriam O Callaghan read out the exact words used by the Shin Fein guy up North saying the guy who was murdered by the IRA (PAul Quinn) and she stuttered and stumbled and said that wasn't her recollection .
Car crash stuff but i wonder will it change anything

Didn't do great but it was hardly an implosion. She was caught out on the Paul Murphy thing alright insofar as she went on TV the day before and denied he said anything.
But SF are not going to change their stance on the SCC in the middle of an election campaign.

[sbgawa]

Then she should have answered the question by saying we don't agree with it because of XY and Z.
refusing to answer played into the hands of people who think SF are against it because of their mates in the IRA.

Hopeless display of obfuscation and a lack of grasp on economic detail but SF are marmite so i dont think it will cost her with the already committed.
The next poll will be interesting.
I predict a stall not a fall

[backstothewall]

Having watched the debate I've learned SF have connections to the Ra.

Imagine my shock.

I don't usually vote for them up here but I'd probably canvass for them if I lived in the 26 counties

[osarusan]

Having watched the debate I've learned SF have connections to the Ra.

The question of just how strong and influential those questions are is a genuine one.

There was a disucssion on a radio show recently (I forget which one) and an FF politician made the point that, with SF, you never know what shadowy council might need to approve a particular deal, and where the real power in the party lies. There was a SF politician who was given the chance to respond, but instead of saying something about no connections, or transparency, he said something like 'we all have our advisors.'

He had an opportunity to put distance between them, but didn't/couldn't.

A lot of people will take those connections seriously. I'm one person who will anyway.

[passinginterest]

I'd be of the view that the debate has definitely damaged some of the momentum for Sinn Fein. I don't expect the massive drop they've had from opinion polls in some previous elections, but I expect they will drop back closer to 20%. There's been a gradual change in attitudes towards SF over the last 15 years, they've moved to the left socially and lost some of the very obvious ties to the old IRA. That's made them a lot more palatable to a much wider demographic. There's a large cohort (and I'd include myself here) who've gone from SF being a party that wouldn't even get a preference, to being a lower preference to creeping towards the top. They got a huge boost from the RIC debacle, which seemed to swell a lot of dormant nationalism, added to the fact that they're the only large party offering anything significantly different. I do think some of those that had shifted from higher preference to first preference will slip back as a result of the debate and some of the issues that it brought back to the surface (there's no real excuse for Mary Lou to have been seemingly so unprepared for some very obvious questions). I expect we'll see a FF led government, most likely a reverse of the current confidence and supply agreement. If that doesn't come to pass I think there's a decent chance Martin steps aside and allows a replacement FF leader to form a coalition with SF. It'll be a fascinating election whatever way it falls, there's a feeling that we're at a particularly fragile stage in the economic cycle, and the next government could oversee a genuine period of growth and stability or a complete calamity and a plunge into an even worse recession due to the state of health and housing.

[backstothewall]

They should lean into their position on the Special Criminal Court. It's been condemned by the UN, Amnesty International etc.

It's not a revolutionary idea that people should accused of serious crimes should have the right to a trial in front of a jury of their peers. It's been around since 1972. It's not unlikely that there might be better ways of doing things almost 50 years later.

As for the shadowy figures in the background, quite frankly I'd sooner take my chances with a few old provos than the likes of Seán Gallagher. I don't believe for a second that the culture of the ballot box in one hand and a brown envelope in the other has changed.

[Real ale Madrid]

Ok 1 week on - a good week (according to the odds) makers for SF , a bad one for SOL/PBP

They say:

FF - 55 Seats (+8 From 2016)
FG - 44 Seats (-1)
Sinn Fein - 23 Seats (+1)
Green Party - 9 Seats (+6)
Labour - 7 Seats (NC)
SOL-PBP - 1 Seats (-5)
Social Democrats - 3 Seats (+1)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 16 Seats (-7)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacant Currently

Same logic as before as regards who is still in contention for seats....

FF in the hunt for 12 seats, and in last place for 9 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
FG in the hunt for 9 seats, and in last place for 10 seats ( slight potential downswing)
SF in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
Lab in the hunt for 6 seats, and in last place for 3 seats ( Potential for an upswing)
G in the hunt for 8 seats, and in last place for 2 seats ( Potential for Upswing)
SOL / PBP in the hunt for 4 more seats and last place in no area
Independents in the hunt for 11 more seats, and in last place for 4 seats ( Potential upswing )

SF now in position to win a 2nd seat in Donegal, Louth and Dublin Mid-West according to PP.
They now have SOL-PBP outside the seats everywhere except Richard Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire but are still in the hunt in all 5 seats they hold. Paul Murphy is still in with a shout in Dublin South West also - he's listed in my total as an independent.

FF/SF would have 78 seats between them in this model......

This is not my analysis but merely what the bookies are predicting. Will post again next Thursday

So - just a few hours before the moratorium kicks in here how Paddy Power sees it - possibly influenced by a lot of SF money on the back of two opinion polls - but make no mistake - this would be bloodbath for FG and SF's greatest hour for a century.

FF - 58 Seats (+11 From 2016)
FG - 35 Seats (-10)
Sinn Fein - 30 Seats (+8)
Green Party - 10 Seats (+7)
Labour - 6 Seats (-1)
SOL-PBP - 1 Seats (-5)
Social Democrats - 4 Seats (+2)
Aontú - 1 Seat (NC)
Independants - 14 Seats (-9)
1 Ceann Comhairle
1 Seat is Vacant Currently

FF/SF would have a nice handy majority. We will see how it goes.

[sbgawa]

FG greens labour and SF.
happy days

[Real ale Madrid]

Irish Times podcast seem to think that Pascal Donoghue's seat in Dublin central is under threat. They seem to think Mary Lou is in line to double the quota and her transfers will leave Donoghue vulnerable.

Current Odds - 4 Seats

Mary Lou McDonald (SF) 1/50
Gary Gannon (SD) 3/10
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF) 1/3
Paschal Donoghue (FG) 2/5
Nessa Hourigan (G) 1/2
Christy Burke (Ind) 3/1
10/1 Bar the rest

[NeverFeltBetter]

Have seen a good bit of stuff on social media over the last few days about big, big names, as big as Varadkar, worried about their seats, which all seems a bit much to me. If we went by Twitter alone Sinn Fein and Aontu would be getting 80 seats between them.

[ForzaForth]

Anecdotally, a massive swing tomorrow to Sinn Fein in Wexford. Paddy Power now have the Sinn Fein candidate clear favourite to take the first seat in Wexford.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Had a look there, I see Verona Murphy has sneaked into 5th place on the betting odds, with 5 seats to play for: wouldn't that be a kick in the teeth for Fine Gael?

[sbgawa]

If boyd barret and Paul Murphy lose their seats to shin fein it's a great election

[osarusan]

What will the next govt even look like?