Scotland at the crossroads

[culloty82]

The SNP have ruled Scotland for the last four years as a minority government, but have been unable to hold a referendum on independence due to the blocking votes of the three London-based parties. Now, however, opinion polls indicate that the Nationalists will increase their seat total on Thursday, but probably not by enough to secure a majority. Polls regularly indicate that the Scots would reject independence, which in practice would only affect Westminster representation as no parties want to drop the monarchy or sterling at the moment, but like Quebec, a vote will probably be needed to settle the issue.

[BonnieShels]

The SNP have ruled Scotland for the last four years as a minority government, but have been unable to hold a referendum on independence due to the blocking votes of the three London-based parties. Now, however, opinion polls indicate that the Nationalists will increase their seat total on Thursday, but probably not by enough to secure a majority. Polls regularly indicate that the Scots would reject independence, which in practice would only affect Westminster representation as no parties want to drop the monarchy or sterling at the moment, but like Quebec, a vote will probably be needed to settle the issue.

And maybe the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour might let them have it? Even Trimble's jokey comment about letting the north have one might end up going the same road in Ecosse.

[Macy]

Polls regularly indicate that the Scots would reject independence, which in practice would only affect Westminster representation as no parties want to drop the monarchy or sterling at the moment, but like Quebec, a vote will probably be needed to settle the issue.

If the "UK" parties were that confident why do they keep blocking it? Not being smart, I simply haven't followed it closely enough, but if the polls show it wouldn't be carried, you'd think they'd have the vote and then get on with it. It seems like silly tactics as the SNP probably getting support on the basis on getting a referendum even from people who'd vote against it!

[peadar1987]

If the "UK" parties were that confident why do they keep blocking it? Not being smart, I simply haven't followed it closely enough, but if the polls show it wouldn't be carried, you'd think they'd have the vote and then get on with it. It seems like silly tactics as the SNP probably getting support on the basis on getting a referendum even from people who'd vote against it!

I think a lot of it's a money issue. It's not cheap to hold referenda.

But I think it could well be closer than opinion polls suggest. When I lived over there, it seemed like the pro-independence people cared far more about the issue than the pro-union ones. There might well be a greater turnout from the nationalist side.

I personally think it wouldn't be a bad thing. Scotland is a very different place to the rest of the UK, and its issues can#t be addressed the same way as those of London, Manchester, or Belfast.

[DannyInvincible]

Scotland also has its own legal system as distinct from that in England and Wales.

And maybe the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour might let them have it? Even Trimble's jokey comment about letting the north have one might end up going the same road in Ecosse.

Interestingly, as part of the GFA terms, if a referendum on unity was to occur in NI, another referendum would not be permitted to occur for at least another seven years.

If they're confident that Scotland wishes to remain within the UK, surely the "UK parties" could wind some similar condition into any potential Scottish referendum on independence if they really wanted. At the very least, it would keep the issue off their agenda for another few years anyway, assuming any forthcoming referendum went in their favour.

[DannyInvincible]

I personally think it wouldn't be a bad thing. Scotland is a very different place to the rest of the UK, and its issues can#t be addressed the same way as those of London, Manchester, or Belfast.

Are you suggesting that Belfast might be less different than Scotland from the rest of the UK?

[BonnieShels]

Interestingly, as part of the GFA terms, if a referendum on unity was to occur in NI, another referendum would not be permitted to occur for at least another seven years.

I remember that well. Haven't read the gfa since 98. Must look over it again. Never know how the referenda could be instigated. And then was it mandatory to have them after 7 years. It was a very vague sop to unionism.

Could work in Scotland alright.

Also I know what Peadar is getting at. Themes a serious problem with Scottish nationality. It'not contiguous with Scottish identity and its very confused. In the north of Ireland everyone knows where they stand in the grand scheme of things whether they agree or not.

[DannyInvincible]

I remember that well. Haven't read the gfa since 98. Must look over it again. Never know how the referenda could be instigated. And then was it mandatory to have them after 7 years. It was a very vague sop to unionism.

The GFA states that the NI Secretary of State can call a referendum on unity "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland". It wouldn't be mandatory to have another after seven years; this would just be the minimum amount of time that would have to pass until another could be called. Relevant portion here:

SCHEDULE 1
POLLS FOR THE PURPOSE OF SECTION 1
1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.

2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.

3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.

[culloty82]

With nearly half the seats declared - 58/129, both Labour and the Lib Dems are getting absolute hammerings:

SNP 45
Lab 20
Con 4
LD 2
Green 1

Scotland also has a list system, which will probably give a boost to the smaller parties, but the momentum can be clearly seen. Clegg will likely get another trouncing on the AV (single-seat PR) referendum, as it was seen as a vote on the Lib Dems, and Labour were split down the middle.

The BBC's final prediction is:

SNP 68 (overall majority)
Lab 38
Con 12
LD 6
Green 3
Oth 2

[The Fly]

The BBC's final prediction is:

SNP 68 (overall majority)
Lab 38
Con 12
LD 6
Green 3
Oth 2

...which would represent Labour's worst result since at least 1931, the worst Tory result ever and the worst Lib Dem performance since 1979.

All in all, there's a good chance of a referendum on independence this term.

[BonnieShels]

...which would represent Labour's worst result since at least 1931, the worst Tory result ever and the worst Lib Dem performance since 1979.

All in all, there's a good chance of a referendum on independence this term.

I really hope there is. I have no real desire or will to see an independent Scotland I just want to see what way these things go.

The what ifs that will arise are tantalizing.

[culloty82]

One of the most tantalising "what ifs" that arises would be Scotland's EU membership - you'd presume an independent nation would automatically continue as a member, unless it voted separately to leave, but because no region has broken away since the Treaty of Rome was said, there's no legal consensus on the issue. Should have emphasised in the OP that I wasn't anti-independence, just that even what the SNP wants seems very weak even compared with our Treaty.

[The Fly]

The what ifs that will arise are tantalizing.

The 'what if' which I find most intriguing is the effect such a prospect would have for Northern Ireland and, in particular, the Unionist psyche.

[peadar1987]

The 'what if' which I find most intriguing is the effect such a prospect would have for Northern Ireland and, in particular, the Unionist psyche.

It'd certainly be interesting from a Northern Irish perspective. Hopefully the nutter fringe on the nationalist side would see that it's possble to break away from the UK without shooting anyone in the knee, at the very least!

[DannyInvincible]

Alex Salmond has promised a referendum on independence to take place by 2015.