Dublin Central By Election

[pete]

Candidates
* Senator Ivana Bacik (Labour)
* Senator Paschal Donohoe (FG)
* David Geary (Greens)
* Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind)
* Malachy Steenson (Workers Party)
* Maurice Ahern (FF)
* Christy Burke (SF)

From the Irish Times

The Fianna Fáil selection convention in Dublin Central also take place this evening. Maurice Ahern, the brother of the former taoiseach, will contest the nomination against Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick and Cllr Tom Stafford.

Good old political nepotism. Bertie rules the Dblin central kingdom so I am people will get the nomination for his brother.

May Lou ran for SF last time but she is running for European Election so I presume that rules her out?

FF had almost 40% first preference in the General Election but a lot of that was Bertie votes. Bacik has not run in the constituency before while Fitzpatrick & Donohoue lost out last time. SF also have a strong vote but no seat. Will probably be decided on where Tony Gregorys votes go...

[Macy]

O'Sullivan is running from Tony Gregory's camp, so it depends on how much of that vote holds up.

Incidentally, FF are financing the campaign with the repaid "loan" from the B/T Account.

[pete]

Dublin central is my patch & with 3 elections it is already confusing with all the posters - its not clear what election each candidate is running for it just look at posters.

[Ringo]

At the Dublin Central Fianna Fáil convention, Maurice Ahern, the older brother of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern, defeated Mary Fitzpatrick by 64 votes to 17 to win the party’s nomination to contest the byelection.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0507/1224246059470.html

[pete]

Mary Fitzpatrick will surely move elsewhere or leave FF at this stage. Granted she only seems to be campigning on fathers legacy but she alleged dirty tactics from Ahern team assisting Brady in the last General Election.

I suppose in a byelection transfers from outside your party even more important than normal which might mean little chance of FF success. It would be terrible for democracy to have 2 Ahern brothers & 1 Ahern lacky in a 4 seat constituency.

[Macy]

Mary Fitzpatrick will surely move elsewhere or leave FF at this stage.

She's probably right to play a long game. Ahern will be gone soon either way.

[Lionel Ritchie]

Sounds kind of ominous Macy ...what are you -his cardiologist?

[Macy]

If they've successfully stymied the Tribunal, as they've tried to do (with Gormley the lead minister as well), then he'll run for the park. If the Tribunal isn't hamstrung and produces a full report, he'll settle for the Mansion House.

[pete]

She's probably right to play a long game. Ahern will be gone soon either way.

Isn't Maurice Ahern the bright new talent of the FF party

[monutdfc]

Mary Fitzpatrick's going nowhere. If she didn't leave after the General Election she won't leave now. With Bertie very unlikely to stand at the next election it will be between her, Cyprian Brady and maybe one other for the one sure FF seat in the constituency - she'd have as good a chance as the other two.

One candidate I won't be giving my vote to is Paschal Donohoe for the following reason: knowing that Tony Gregory wouldn't last the full Dail term, Enda Kenny has been shamelessly pushing Donohoe since the GE - he was made Chair of the European Affairs Committee - probably the 2nd most important committee in the Oireachtas - ahead of many more senior politicians and Lucinda Creighton who headed the FG Lisbon campaign. Maybe that's politics, but it leaves a bad taste.

With Bertie not in the race the GE results offer little guide. Both he and Tony Gregory had a big personal vote. Can't see Bacik making it. My money's on Donohoe.

[monutdfc]

odds per Paddy Power

Ivana Bacik 11/8
Maureen O'Sullivan 11/8
Paschal Donohoe 5/2
Maurice Ahearn 6/1
Sinn Fein Candidate 10/1
David Geary 33/1
Malachy Steenson 100/1

[pete]

Can't believe Bacik odds so low. I know Labour vote is on the up but she doesn't come across as the right type of Labour candidate i.e. a lot different than Joe Costello.

Donohue seems quiet active & aside from Gregory the only representative that sent out regular bulletins. Bertie did sent a letter about adding filter traffic light 3 years which he did not do so that doesn't count. He seems good odds.

[pete]

Latest Odds

Paschal Donohoe 11/10
Maureen O'Sullivan 2/1
Ivana Bacik 2/1
Maurice Ahearn 7/1
Christy Burke 10/1
David Geary 33/1
Malachy Steenson 100/1

[John83]

Can't believe Bacik odds so low. I know Labour vote is on the up but she doesn't come across as the right type of Labour candidate i.e. a lot different than Joe Costello.

Everyone I know who's met her dislikes her. I know several people who voted for De Rossa in the last European elections just so he'd get the labour seat. I have no idea how she gets the labour nomination - she's a dreadful campaigner.

[Bald Student]

Everyone I know who's met her dislikes her. I know several people who voted for De Rossa in the last European elections just so he'd get the labour seat. I have no idea how she gets the labour nomination - she's a dreadful campaigner.

There was a brilliant vox-pop on the radio the other day. A lady from the constituency was asked what she thought of the Reid professor from Trinity running.
She answered; does she think she's better than us just because she can read?

From what I can tell, it's all to do with politics, she got Labour a free seat in the senate so she presumably has a bit of pull within the party.