The Greens

[OneRedArmy]

On the verge of making themselves unelectable for at least another generation, which is quite an achievement in less than a year.

I'll declare my interests here, I'm a Green Party voter and have admired what they have previously contributed as minority coalition members in Governments elsewhere in Europe.

But they are at a real turning point IMO. Whilst its clear to most that the other "main" parties have no real principles and slide with the mood of the people, the Greens rely on the perception that they are true to their roots and have a coherent and clear position on core issues. If they lose this they have nothing, as they don't have a large historical base of loyal voters who are too stuck in their ways to change.

Whilst in many ways the downturn hit them worse than FF (many of their policies are for long-term benefit and have significant cost in the short-term, so a contractionary budget was the worst thing that could happen)their hollow words about the education cuts are in severe danger of permanently labelling them as gutless.

Hopefully the party grassroots continue in their attempts to make the parliamentary party fully accountable.

I can see now why Sergeant stepped down.

Discuss.

[Sheridan]

On the verge of making themselves unelectable for at least another generation

They already did that by putting Harney back in health. I know I'll never give them a preference again for just that reason, and I'm sure they'll lose a good proportion of transfers over it. I suppose you can't fault them for selling out their principles as they've been fairly faithful to them, but it's just brought home how narrow and tangential their manifesto is. Fiddling while Rome burns energy saving bulbs comes to mind.

[Calcio Jack]

What's there to discuss... have moved from Planet Bertie to Planet Power at all costs...will be rightly slaughtered in next election, which IMO will be early Spring next year... and will see a FF./Lab coalition take over and the Greens reduced to having 1 TD (Eamon Ryan) and Greens will become a freak show party on the outskirts of the political landscape.

[Bald Student]

I can see what you're saying ORA but there's another side to the story as well. The government doesn't have as much money as it did last year and needs to cut back on stuff.

I think it's the easiest thing in the world to stand on the sidelines and shout at the players and the ref for making bad decisions and that politics isn't any different. If the greens pull out they're effectively saying that they're not able for hard decisions. That when the going gets tough, we need to depend on the other parties because the greens are too pure for real decision making.

If they think they're good enough to run the country, they should decide what needs to be done and then go ahead and do it. If they're not able for that then they should get off the stage entirely, I don't believe in opposition parties shouting across the Dáil if they don't have the guts to then carry out their words.

[Billsthoughts]

Green Party Web Site

Their policy section(some of which obviously hasnt been updated since they got into government) makes for interesting reading.

I voted for them last election myself. On the basis that it was going to be a FF plus one smaller party govt. Rather them than the PDs. I thought they might be able to exert some positive influence.

It will be a long time before I ever vote for them again as all they have done is act as a rubber stamp for poor FF policy. Obviously a party cant sit on the fence forever but I cant see what they have achieved.

[Dodge]

I can see what you're saying ORA but there's another side to the story as well. The government doesn't have as much money as it did last year and needs to cut back on stuff.

Wouldn't explain the green position on tara or incinerators. Both were high priorities for greens pre Government. Boht of which they've bent on.

As a left leaning type, they would've previously got votes from me (down the list anyway).

[Bald Student]

Wouldn't explain the green position on tara or incinerators. Both were high priorities for greens pre Government. Both of which they've bent on.

It's the same basic argument. If they can't have everything they want, they should take nothing and instead complain across the Dáil at the people doing a job they're unwilling or unable to do.

[Macy]

If the greens pull out they're effectively saying that they're not able for hard decisions. That when the going gets tough, we need to depend on the other parties because the greens are too pure for real decision making.

Why they're screwed is because they haven't made hard decisions. The Budget didn't make hard decisions, except on the young, old, disabled and poor. Instead they supported sub prime props to the building industry and no closure of tax loopholes for the well off and developers. And btw both FG and Labour published proposals as to what the budget should contain before the budget, so it's not like they are just sniping without putting ideas forward.

They sold out going in with FF, but in fairness Gormley and Ryan have fitted right in. Gogarty & White are like the classic FF backbencher talking out of both sides of their mouth.

I can see the argument about being in power to implement policy, however, FF must be peeing themselves that the Green's count the light bulb and toilet debacle's as some kind of success. Sold themselves for nothing. They even managed to screw up the VRT change by not being able to hold their silence until they were ready to implement it so cost millions in tax revenue as people held off buying (by which time the economy had slowed). Ryan just seems to want to talk about broadband, instead of getting the bloody thing available nationwide. Other things like the new building reg's were due anyway, and had only been delayed as FF sop to the builders.

Sargeant must have a good political radar though - got the plaudits for sticking to his word, and since then he's managed to keep out of the limelight and keep his head down whilst the others have been burned. He's about the only untarnished Green left.

[Bald Student]

Why they're screwed is because they haven't made hard decisions.

I half agree with you there Macy. There's a tendency in that to forget eaten bread but I think the greens underestimated their own influence in government and settled for less than they could have. One thing to come out of this budges is that FF have lost 2 votes in the Dáil so the greens are now in a position to bring down the government. Whether they realise their influence is something that we'll find out soon enough.

One thing I strongly disagree with is accusing people of selling out as though any politician we disagree with is automatically prioritising his own pay packet ahead of the common good. I knew Éamon Ryan in a very minor way when he ran the bike shop here in UCDD and I'd be reasonably sure he's not corrupt. It's perfectly possible for two honest people to disagree with each other on what's best to do.

[Macy]

One thing I strongly disagree with is accusing people of selling out as though any politician we disagree with is automatically prioritising his own pay packet ahead of the common good. I knew Éamon Ryan in a very minor way when he ran the bike shop here in UCDD and I'd be reasonably sure he's not corrupt. It's perfectly possible for two honest people to disagree with each other on what's best to do.

I don't think Ryan, or even Gormley are corrupt, well not in the Financial sense, and possibly I am being harsh on Ryan. However, he loves a talking shop rather than getting things done, which is the FF way. The problem is, the concessions they got from FF were basically reports and talking shops, very little power.

[bennocelt]

Wouldn't explain the green position on tara or incinerators. Both were high priorities for greens pre Government. Boht of which they've bent on.

As a left leaning type, they would've previously got votes from me (down the list anyway).

thanks for giving me a smile

[Bald Student]

I don't think Ryan, or even Gormley are corrupt, well not in the Financial sense, and possibly I am being harsh on Ryan. However, he loves a talking shop rather than getting things done, which is the FF way. The problem is, the concessions they got from FF were basically reports and talking shops, very little power.

I'll half agree with you again so but if we're not calling them corrupt financially then I'm going to object to using the phrase 'selling out'. I don't like throwing around metaphorical insults that we don't mean literally.

I think there's a strong tendency to down play the green policies in Government and pretend that they amount to only a tax break on bicycle clips or some other small thing. That said, I also think that the greens got badly outmanoeuvred by Bertie 2 years ago. Instead of inviting the greens to form a govt. Bertie formed a govt. and then invited the greens to join. Whether the greens are good enough at their jobs to recover from that is yet to be seen but that's completely separate question to whether the greens' motivation is in the right direction. There's a world of difference between saying, "The ref made the wrong call.", and, "The ref is biased.".

[monutdfc]

One thing to come out of this budges is that FF have lost 2 votes in the Dáil so the greens are now in a position to bring down the government.

Is this correct? (Not saying it isn't, just I haven't counted the numbers yet.)
FF (77 + B Cooper - S Brennan - J Behan - Ceann Comhairle) 75
PD 2
Govt Inds 2 (Healy Rae + Lowry)
Green 6
Total = 85

FG 51
Labour 20
SF 4
Non govt Inds 3 (Gregory, McGrath, Behan)
Total = 78

Indeed it is correct; the only alternative is FG, Labour, SF and Green which is not going to happen (anyway FG would jump at a general election).

Some interesting points in this thread. Until now the people who were swearing loudly they would never vote Green again were people who were giving them a 4th or 5th preference (trace your vote in any election - it is generally only used once or at most twice). Now we are hearing people who gave them No1 or No2 preferences uttering the same. I think it will take them a long time to recover from this (speaking as a Green voter who has had a (blank) membership form on his desk for months).

[Bald Student]

I think it will take them a long time to recover from this.

I think that they'll come out strongly if they handle themselves well and will suffer if they don't. That's a part of what politics is supposed to be about, a test of character and ability. For too long during the boom politicians had it comfortable. Those in the government got away with giving money to anyone who asked loudly enough and those in the opposition took the role of complaining that the government should have given out more.

We're in a recession now and they have real decisions to be made. We'll find out over the next year or so whether they're good enough to make them.

[Aberdonian Stu]

Also there's another factor that should never be overlooked, especially in the case of smaller parties and that's the individual seats. By which I mean the strength of the candidate in their own constituency.

Irrespective of what happened in this government Cuffe and Gormley would have fights on their hands in the next election. Cuffe because of the contraction in Dun Laoghaire, and Gormley because he always has a fight on his hands in Dublin South East.

I don't know what the opposite of a perfect storm is but Eamon Ryan's sailing into one. The death of Brennan, the likely retirement of Kitt, and the reasonable chance of at least one retiring FGer, means that he looks safe until 2017 unless something catastrophic happens.

I won't comment on Sargent or White as I have little to no knowledge of their seat situations. Likewise I won't attempt to guess what Greens currently have a shot of winning a seat next time out.