Luxembourg v Republic of Ireland - Tuesday, 10th June 2025 - Friendly

[elatedscum]

In fairness, if we should have scored 5 by that metric (including an offside goal and an acrobatic effort that still went about five yards over), we should still have lost when you count O'Leary's two good saves (the only saves of note in the game), Luxembourg hitting the woodwork, etc.

Did Luxembourg hit the woodwork? Maybe I've already begun to wipe the match from my memory but all I can remember of note is the two O'Leary saves and the shot that deflected over the bar.

I think it's fair enough looking at the offside goal, from the perspective that the run just needed to be timed a little better and he's still in. It wasn't the fact he was offside that made the chance. If you ran that as a drill in training, he beats the offside trap and is one on one with the keeper more than 50% of the time. The other Parrott chance is also a real sitter, he just can't get it out of his feet. Idah's chance, difficult but from that range if he hits the target, it should be a goal.

[elatedscum]

And we more or less allowed them to bully us. Yet again Parrot stands up for himself (NZ Lansdowne springs to mind) and there's no backup. Taylor a couple of times got stuck right in to be fair too.

the only time this squad of players ever looks ready to stand up for itself is when Molumby is playing centre midfield and with all due consideration given to our other options in there, none of them impact a game to that much of an extent that they are head and shoulders above him.

Who are the midfielders to choose from? Cullen, Knight, Taylor, Smallbone, Molumby, Azaz, McGrath in the first group - and Finn, Moran, Phillips, Lawal, Browne in the group below, where we've tended to select 5 players in total. It's a real group of decent players with absolutely no one bringing the level up. All basically borderline top tier championship players but that's about it.

Looking back, I really think giving Finn just 5 minutes across the 2 games was a total waste. If you'd have seen him for 45 minutes, you'd have a real sense if he's up to the level - instead we have a 5 minute cameo where he looked really good but you'd be afraid to call him up and expose him in a competitive fixture

[pineapple stu]

Did Luxembourg hit the woodwork? Maybe I've already begun to wipe the match from my memory but all I can remember of note is the two O'Leary saves and the shot that deflected over the bar.

I thought they had one onto the top of the bar, though the BBC match stats disagrees. (I will acknowledge my eyes glazing over at regular intervals during the 90...) But swap in that deflected shot instead and it's the same point. You can't accumulate all our chances and half chances and offside chances into a biased conclusion (like "Probably should have scored 5") without doing the same for Luxembourg. And they definitely had chances of their own.

Bottom line is "If Idah hits the target, it should be a goal" is just "If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle". If Idah was a better striker, it might have been a goal. But he's not a better striker, so it wasn't probably a goal.

[SkStu]

Looking back, I really think giving Finn just 5 minutes across the 2 games was a total waste. If you'd have seen him for 45 minutes, you'd have a real sense if he's up to the level - instead we have a 5 minute cameo where he looked really good but you'd be afraid to call him up and expose him in a competitive fixture

Totally agree. I wasnt bothered that he didnt start or didnt come on sooner as i just interpreted it to mean that Phillips > Finn > Honohan but once he had his cameo i was left thinking there is definitely a player there that might improve us - but that you just could not justify him replacing any of the current crop of squad midfielders based on that sample. That feels like a missed opportunity (or poor judgement) from HH.

[MylesNotMiley]

The Evan Ferguson enigma is another job for Sam Spade, either he is carrying an injury, or something else has gone on that we don't know about ?

Where does he go from here?

He's not getting in the Brighton team anytime soon. I get the feeling Hurlezer doesn't rate him. I can't see many EPL clubs lining up to take him, even on a loan. Too much of a risk for the promoted clubs.

Championship?

[CraftyToePoke]

Where does he go from here?

He could do worse than take a Cullen / Parrott approach & go do well in a decent European league, he'd have options you'd imagine, and probably better than those two had. It won't suit the EPL purists but so what, he just needs to do well somewhere ( as Idah did as well ) & then take a look at his choices. The least worthwhile one is the Brighton bench. There were Everton rumours last week but they seem a little hopeful, obviously glad to be wrong about that if so, new stadium, very strong finish to the season, upwardly mobile club, warhorse manager.

[Razors left peg]

He could do worse than take a Cullen / Parrott approach & go do well in a decent European league, he'd have options you'd imagine, and probably better than those two had. It won't suit the EPL purists but so what, he just needs to do well somewhere ( as Idah did as well ) & then take a look at his choices. The least worthwhile one is the Brighton bench. There were Everton rumours last week but they seem a little hopeful, obviously glad to be wrong about that if so, new stadium, very strong finish to the season, upwardly mobile club, warhorse manager.

Theres a lot to be said for getting out of the spotlight a little bit too. A move to a top flight team on the Continent I think is 100% what he needs right now, not some slog with the likes of Millwall or Stoke who are more in interested in trying not to lose than actively trying to play.

At 20 theres still a lot of development needed for him and he has shown that he is a good ball player, Id hope he goes somewhere that can bring that back and not somewhere that would try to turn him into a version of Duncan Ferguson

[elatedscum]

he's a bit of a victim of his own success. Brighton still think they potentially have a very valuable asset on their hands, so are unwilling to sell for pennies on the pound, which leaves him with just loan moves. As we saw with West Ham, unless he's immediately contributing and if his performances over the last 2 seasons are anything to go by, he may not, it may be difficult for him to get the necessary minutes to have a real impact...

[rebelmusic]

he's a bit of a victim of his own success. Brighton still think they potentially have a very valuable asset on their hands, so are unwilling to sell for pennies on the pound, which leaves him with just loan moves. As we saw with West Ham, unless he's immediately contributing and if his performances over the last 2 seasons are anything to go by, he may not, it may be difficult for him to get the necessary minutes to have a real impact...

Surely a deal with add-ons could be made based on goals scored or a percentage on resell value? Brighton have smart accounting when it comes to making a lot of profit from their academies so I'd be really surprised if they can't come up with a solution to monetize his potential

[John83]

We saw already how Liverpool handled the Kelleher situation with a buyback clause. There are definitely ways to hedge against underselling a player with a high ceiling.

[Acornvilla]

I thought they had one onto the top of the bar, though the BBC match stats disagrees. (I will acknowledge my eyes glazing over at regular intervals during the 90...) But swap in that deflected shot instead and it's the same point. You can't accumulate all our chances and half chances and offside chances into a biased conclusion (like "Probably should have scored 5") without doing the same for Luxembourg. And they definitely had chances of their own.

Bottom line is "If Idah hits the target, it should be a goal" is just "If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle". If Idah was a better striker, it might have been a goal. But he's not a better striker, so it wasn't probably a goal.

We had two hit the bar, Taylor's sounds like what you're describing? So maybe who did what is getting mudled up, I can't remember them hitting it fwiw, but I was also barely paying attention, the game was awful. Maybe no one was paying enough attention to know what actually happened


As Max O' Leary's biggest advocate I am happy to see the man finally get his cap, it might be the only one he ever gets, but he deserves it for always showing up and playing consistently at the level he has.


On the Evan chat, I think Brighton are likely to lose a forward, Welbeck won't keep the level he has up forever either, Evan will get his shot to impress in pre season, apparently the January interest from Chelsea and Man United was real, so I am sure he is still rated and considered someone of great potential/value, but it is going to be the biggest few months of his career to date, it has to go well, he has to stay fit. Having a big long term contract at Brighton means they have to try and make the most of him and not bin him off yet IMO.

[elatedscum]

wrote this earlier today:

"i'd say Evan's value in the market went from £70-100m in summer 2025 to £50m last summer to probably £30m this summer. They'd certainly be selling low now."

i just saw Brighton have bought an 18 year old Greek striker from Olympiakos for £30m today. i wonder if he moves ahead of Evan in the rankings or if it makes it more likely that Evan will move on.

[CraftyToePoke]

wrote this earlier today:

"i'd say Evan's value in the market went from £70-100m in summer 2025 to £50m last summer to probably £30m this summer. They'd certainly be selling low now."

i just saw Brighton have bought an 18 year old Greek striker from Olympiakos for £30m today. i wonder if he moves ahead of Evan in the rankings or if it makes it more likely that Evan will move on.

What's the point of guesstimating his plummeting value in the first place ?
Whatever he was, or however much it was speculated he was worth two years ago, is as much an irrelevance in this as plucking figures now like you are.
If he fixes whatever is wrong with him ( and those odds keep getting longer ) he will have a career relevant to our national side, if he doesn't, he wont, same as Connolly and Obafemi don't.

You are worth what someone is willing to pay for you, not a penny more or less & none of that really matters to us Ireland supporters perspective on this anyway.

[elatedscum]

What's the point of guesstimating his plummeting value in the first place ?
Whatever he was, or however much it was speculated he was worth two years ago, is as much an irrelevance in this as plucking figures now like you are.
If he fixes whatever is wrong with him ( and those odds keep getting longer ) he will have a career relevant to our national side, if he doesn't, he wont, same as Connolly and Obafemi don't.

You are worth what someone is willing to pay for you, not a penny more or less & none of that really matters to us Ireland supporters perspective on this anyway.

It's as much to illustrate that if you're Brighton, you might try find a path where you can rebuild that value, either with an intelligent loan move or reintegrating him into the squad - if you loaned him to say Freiburg and he played and he scored 20-25 goals in the Bundesliga, then suddenly he returns to that price range. Saying that, from a club perspective there's always a time to sell. If Brighton had sold Aaron Connolly in summer 2020, just after his breakout, they could have made tens of millions off it, instead of him being released on a free.

As an Ireland fan, I think you'd want Evan to have a similar move to Troy. Move to a team where he's an undoubted starter in a league which is good enough for people to take notice but maybe not a level where he will go on barren runs that would make him lose his confidence or his place in the side. The issue is clubs similar to AZ could never afford someone like Evan. They paid €8m for Parrott plus a 20% sell on clause. Shay Given linked him with Celtic today - but similarly Celtic have the finances for Idah but nowhere close to what Evan would command. Even in Germany, the teams that could afford to buy Evan are probably just the likes of Bayern, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Leipzig - below that they just wouldn't have the finances. And all the clubs that have the finances to get a deal done (and would be willing to take a chance on him) aren't going to bring him in as a starter. Like say at £25m, he'd probably be very attractive to Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea - just to take a punt that he pans out rather than having to pay £95m or whatever United paid for Anthony, Hojlund etc. Whereas at £25m, pretty much every non champions league club in Europe is ruled out immediately. Unfortunately, he needs the game time that a non-elite club can offer.

To go back to the Bundesliga, a friend of mine works for SC Freiburg so I always keep an eye on them. They came 5th last season, failing to reach the Champions League on the final day of the season and their record signing is €10m (this year and also 4 years ago - same fee). Maybe a newly promoted Premier League side could afford him and try do something similar to what Ipswich did with Liam Delap? That's perhaps the best route for Evan...

If I'm Brighton, I'm working out three separate plans - one to reintegrate, one to loan and one to sell and depending on the offers you receive for him and how well he does in pre-season, you judge which is the best course of action and go from there.

[tetsujin1979]

wrote this earlier today:

"i'd say Evan's value in the market went from £70-100m in summer 2025 to £50m last summer to probably £30m this summer. They'd certainly be selling low now."

i just saw Brighton have bought an 18 year old Greek striker from Olympiakos for £30m today. i wonder if he moves ahead of Evan in the rankings or if it makes it more likely that Evan will move on.

It's probably worse for Mark O'Mahony than Ferguson.