Will we be staying up next season?

[DmanDmythDledge]

Rather than continuing a discussion on UCD in a thread on the Galway forum I thought I would continue it here.

The gap between UCD and Galway isn't that big off the field. If they beat us well in attendances and demographics then they only have to beat us by a bit in every criteria. For whatever reason Galway seem to be lauded for everything by Genesis and officials. I'm not going to be smug and I'm not going to assume we can keep our noses in front of them.

The gap between UCD and Galway on the field is big- 70 points IIRC. They won't and can't score more than us in licensing which counts for 15%. Infrastructure we should score almost full marks which is 10%. There's more but I'm not bothered going into it.

[Poor Student]

They won't and can't score more than us in licensing which counts for 15%. Infrastructure we should score almost full marks which is 10%. There's more but I'm not bothered going into it.

Maybe you have a more intimate knowledge of the scoring system and can guess how we'll score with absolute certainty. I don't and I won't be making assumptions on anything.

[Conor H]

To put it simply Yes.

Although it won't be by much.The way i see it UCD will be 11th,Bray 12th and UTD 13th.
If we lose out i think it will be to Bray but only by at most 10-20 points.UCD should be in it next year but with the FAI you never know.Also none of us know how the IAG marked the off the field criteria.Everyone is making assumptions going by the on the filed calculations and then giving a rough guesstimate as to where they think their club will be placed.

[Schumi]

If marked fairly, I'd expect Bray to be in more trouble than us but like everyone else, I'm just guessing.

[pineapple stu]

The gap between UCD and Galway on the field is big- 70 points IIRC.

Bigger than that, I think. Thought it was over 100 points.

Attendances count for 70 marks (all figures to come are ballpark 'cos I don't remember exactly). There's 35 for each of two parts. The first compares your crowds to the top draw in the league - first place (Derry) gets 35 points, and everyone else loses 1 point for every 150 their attendances are lower than Derry's. If you then compare us to, say, Galway, Dundalk, Bray and Waterford, we're roughly 500 behind, which is 4 points tops. Then you weight the crowds by virtue of where you finished in the league (there's a multiplier of 1 for top half of the Premier, 1.5 for bottom half, 2 for top half of the First Division and 2.5 for bottom half of the First Division). Same rules, and we'd end up losing maybe another ten marks there.

Incidentally, we finished in sixth in the league, one place ahead of St Pat's. Pat's will get more points from this season than us anyway because they got to the Cup Final, so our total for this season alone would have been the same had we finished sixth or seventh. But, had we finished seventh, our attendances would have been increased by half and we'd haev closed the gap on the top club and so gained more points. It's so small as to make no real difference - about 2 or 3 points - but it's another example of why the system is so utterly flawed - we acually lose points by finishing higher in the league!

[jebus]

Incidentally lads I'd just like to wish UCD all the best for next week's decision, have always had a lot of time for UCD as a club and had a great time up at the cup match this summer. If you lot do drop down it will be an absolute disgrace that should be no cause of rejoicing for whatever club takes your place, but as I say, I'm keeping my fingers crossed you lot are still in the Premier next year for the sake of keeping a bit of dignity in the Eircom League at the very least

[CollegeTillIDie]

Incidentally lads I'd just like to wish UCD all the best for next week's decision, have always had a lot of time for UCD as a club and had a great time up at the cup match this summer. If you lot do drop down it will be an absolute disgrace that should be no cause of rejoicing for whatever club takes your place, but as I say, I'm keeping my fingers crossed you lot are still in the Premier next year for the sake of keeping a bit of dignity in the Eircom League at the very least

Thanks for that jebus

And I hope Limerick FC in some shape or form are in the League next year.
Limerick United hosted us in the Market's Field in our very first League game in 1979. The same opposition foisted our very worst defeat the same season in our home game. Some of our best times and worst times have occurred when we have been in the same Division as Limerick teams and it would be a shame if the Country's third largest city had no EL club in the new set up.

Limerick City beat us in the Shield final in 1983/1984.
Limerick City inflicted our only home defeat in 1984/85 when we finished 4th in the League.

We beat Limerick City on two out of three occasions when they won the First Division 1991/92 season. And we got full points from them when we won the First Division in 1994/95. And did well again in the Promotion/Relegation play off in 1997/98 and again in our promotion from the First Division in 2004 Season.

[Poor Student]

The Ireland on Sunday believes it will be the Premier IX plus Shamrock Rovers. However they only seem to have guessed at it as the article insists only 4 people currently know who the 12 are.

[mypost]

The Ireland on Sunday believes it will be the Premier IX plus Shamrock Rovers. However they only seem to have guessed at it.

I wouldn't bet on that. It's almost certain that a team(s) will be promoted and relegated from both divisions.

[jebus]

The Ireland on Sunday believes it will be the Premier IX plus Shamrock Rovers. However they only seem to have guessed at it as the article insists only 4 people currently know who the 12 are.

I think the Mirror called it the same way yesterday for what it's worth

[Conor H]

I think the Mirror called it the same way yesterday for what it's worth

Worth very little considering it's the Mirror.
I'd agree with Mypost i reckon there could may well be a promotion and relegation tomorrow.

[pineapple stu]

Do we not think that Shamrock Rovers up and Dublin City down constitutes a promotion/relegation? As indeed you could argue about Dundalk down and Waterford up.

[Louth4sam]

I have a feeling its gonna be the 11 plus rovers. Wont be the end of the world if we dont go up as we have a great chance of winning the first next year which would mean extra prize money and a chance of the setanta. It will also be easier staying up the year after next as 3 go down next season.

[mypost]

Do we not think that Shamrock Rovers up and Dublin City down constitutes a promotion/relegation?

As it only makes up a league of 12 teams, no. The system was devised before the PD lost a club. As Rovers were probably promoted before then, someone would have had to go down.

I predict 2 clubs will be relegated and 3 promoted. 4 of the the 1st Division clubs can go up. So I expect more than one will. To leave it at 11 + us would make a joke of the criteria.

[pineapple stu]

How do you make a joke of a joke?